2026 年 3 月 3 日 原木：预期现实博弈，小幅震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 原木基本面数据 | 价格指标 项 目 2026/3/2 2026/2/27 | 2026/2/26 | 2026/2/25 | 2026/2/24 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2605合约（收盘价） 800 798.5 | 793.5 | 796 | 789 | 0.2% | 1.4% | | 2605合约（成交量） 3742 3161 | 2378 | 5126 | 2407 | 18.4% | 55% | | 2605合约（持仓量） 8416 7605 | 7298 | 7108 | 5631 | 10.7% | 49% | | 2607合约（收盘价） 802.5 800.5 | 799 | 801.5 | 794.5 | 0.2% | 1% | | 盘面 2607合约（成交量） 80 134 | 107 | 168 | 56 | -40.3% | 43% | | 2 ...

【基本面跟踪】 原木基本面数据 2026 年 2 月 27 日 | 价格指标 | 项 目 | 2026/2/26 | 2026/2/25 | 2026/2/24 | 2026/2/13 | 2026/2/12 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2603合约（收盘价） | 792 | 797.5 | 788.5 | 787.5 | 779.5 | -0.7% | 1.6% | | | 2603合约（成交量） | 832 | 4795 | 1913 | 2277 | 3795 | -82.6% | -78% | | | 2603合约（持仓量） | 800 | 1439 | 2230 | 2449 | 3142 | -44.4% | -75% | | | 2605合约（收盘价） | 793.5 | 796 | 789 | 787 | 785 | -0.3% | 1% | | 盘面 | 2605合约（成交量） | 2378 | 5126 | 2407 | 1560 | 2190 | -53.6% | ...

2026 年 2 月 26 日 原木：地产预期回暖，震荡偏强 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 品 研 究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【基本面跟踪】 原木基本面数据 | 价格指标 | 项 目 | 2026/2/25 | 2026/2/24 | 2026/2/13 | 2026/2/12 | 2026/2/11 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2603合约（收盘价） | 797.5 | 788.5 | 787.5 | 779.5 | 777 | 1.1% | 2.6% | | | 2603合约（成交量） | 4795 | 1913 | 2277 | 3795 | 2566 | 150.7% | 87% | | | 2603合约（持仓量） | 1439 | 2230 | 2449 | 3142 | 3972 | -35.5% | -64% | | | 2605合约（收盘价） | 796 | 789 | ...

2026 年 2 月 24 日 原木：低到港低库存，震荡偏强 期货研究 商 品 研 究 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 原木基本面数据 | 2026/2/11 | 价格指标 | 项 目 | 2026/2/13 | 2026/2/12 | 2026/2/10 | 2026/2/9 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 777 | | 2603合约（收盘价） | 787.5 | 779.5 | 773.5 | 775 | 1.0% | 1.6% | | 2566 | | 2603合约（成交量） | 2277 | 3795 | 4155 | 7702 | -40.0% | -70% | | 3972 | | 2603合约（持仓量） | 2449 | 3142 | 4525 | 5279 | -22.1% | -54% | | 787.5 | | 2605合约（收盘价） | 787 | 785 | 789.5 | 785.5 | 0.3% | ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a chemical research report on log market, specifically the Log Daily Report dated February 11, 2026 [1] Group 2: Data Analysis - Log prices (daily) and wood square prices (daily) for different types of logs and wood squares at various ports are presented, with all prices showing 0.00% day - on - day and week - on - week changes [2] - Futures volume and price data for LG2603, LG2605, and LG2607 contracts are provided, including closing prices, changes, and volume/position changes [2] Group 3: Market Review - On February 10, the log spot market was stable. Prices of different grades of radiata pine logs in Rizhao remained unchanged [4] - The closing price of the main contract LG2603 was 777 yuan/cubic meter, up 5.5 yuan/cubic meter from the previous trading day [5] Group 4: Important Information - In January 2026, 74 coniferous log ships arrived at 13 Chinese ports, a month - on - month decrease of 14.94%. The total arrival volume was about 166.81 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 12.80%. Among them, 45 ships were from New Zealand, with an arrival volume of about 147.45 million cubic meters, accounting for 88% and a month - on - month decrease of 10.69% [7] - From February 2 to February 8, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 5.15 million cubic meters, a 16.53% decrease from the previous week. The average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 3.28 million cubic meters, a 15.68% decrease, and that at Jiangsu ports was 1.29 million cubic meters, an 18.87% decrease [7] Group 5: Logic Analysis - Supply pressure is increasing marginally; demand is dragged down by the Spring Festival off - season, with the average daily outbound volume decreasing by 16.53% month - on - month. The foreign market price in February increased by 3 - 5 US dollars, raising the procurement cost. The increase in supply and weak demand will suppress prices in the short term, but the rising cost forms a bottom support. Also, the low inventory buffers the supply shock. Prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, and the post - festival demand resumption rhythm needs to be monitored [7] Group 6: Strategy - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see [7] - For arbitrage, take profit on the 3 - 5 reverse spread [8] - For options, wait and see [9] Group 7: Related Attachments - There are multiple figures showing log and wood square prices, import CFR prices, port log inventory, and other related data [11][13][14]

【基本面跟踪】 原木：需求预期不佳，价格下跌 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 2026 年 2 月 10 日 原木基本面数据 | 2026/2/4 | 价格指标 | 项 目 | 2026/2/6 | 2026/2/5 | 2026/2/3 | 2026/2/2 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 807.5 | | 2603合约（收盘价） | 784 | 802 | 801 | 795 | -2.2% | -1.4% | | 8544 | | 2603合约（成交量） | 9069 | 6656 | 6731 | 11027 | 36.3% | -18% | | 9329 | | 2603合约（持仓量） | 6990 | 8922 | 8902 | 9071 | -21.7% | -23% | | 802 | | 2605合约（收盘价） | 788 | 797.5 | 802 | 796 | -1.2% | -1% | | 2382 | 盘面 | 26 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Port arrivals of logs are low, and spot prices are rising steadily [1] - China's January RatingDog Manufacturing PMI was 50.3, in line with expectations and up from the previous value of 50.1 [3] - Multiple real estate companies are no longer required by regulatory authorities to report "Three Red Lines" indicators monthly, but some troubled real estate companies need to report financial indicators such as asset - liability ratio to the special team in the city where their headquarters are located regularly [3][4] - The trend strength of logs is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2603 contract, the closing price decreased by 2.2% daily and 1.4% weekly, the trading volume increased by 36.3% daily and decreased by 18% weekly, and the open interest decreased by 21.7% daily and 23% weekly. For the 2605 contract, the closing price decreased by 1.2% daily and 1% weekly, the trading volume increased by 17.4% daily and 8% weekly, and the open interest decreased by 9.4% daily and increased by 3% weekly. For the 2607 contract, the closing price decreased by 0.7% daily and 1% weekly, the trading volume increased by 172.0% daily and 80% weekly, and the open interest decreased by 1.9% daily and increased by 5% weekly [1] - **Spot - Futures Spreads**: The spreads between spot and 2603, spot and 2605 decreased by 34.6% and 20.0% daily respectively, and 24% and 17% weekly respectively. The spreads between 2603 - 2605, 2603 - 2607, and 2605 - 2607 also showed certain changes [1] - **Spot Market**: Most spot prices of different types of logs and wood squares remained stable, with only the price of 5.9 - meter 20 + radiata pine in the Shandong market increasing by 1.4% daily and weekly, and the price of 3 - meter and 4 - meter radiata pine wood squares in Chongqing increasing by 0.7% weekly [1] Macro and Industry News - China's January RatingDog Manufacturing PMI was 50.3, in line with expectations and up from the previous value of 50.1 [3] - Multiple real estate companies are no longer required by regulatory authorities to report "Three Red Lines" indicators monthly, but some troubled real estate companies need to report financial indicators such as asset - liability ratio to the special team in the city where their headquarters are located regularly [3][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The report indicates that the log market is in a state of oscillatory consolidation [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: - For the 2603 contract, the closing price on February 5, 2026, was 802, with a daily decline of 0.7% and a weekly increase of 0.5%. The trading volume was 6656, a daily decrease of 22.1% and a weekly decrease of 57%. The open interest was 8922, a daily decrease of 4.4% and a weekly decrease of 12% [1] - For the 2605 contract, the closing price was 797.5, a daily decline of 0.6% and a weekly change of 0%. The trading volume was 2497, a daily increase of 4.8% and a weekly decrease of 36%. The open interest was 5085, a daily decrease of 1.2% and a weekly increase of 7% [1] - For the 2607 contract, the closing price was 801.5, a daily decline of 0.7% and a weekly change of 0%. The trading volume was 82, a daily decrease of 18.0% and a weekly decrease of 75%. The open interest was 1125, a daily increase of 1.4% and a weekly increase of 7% [1] - **Spread Data**: - The spread between the spot and the 2603 contract was -52 on February 5, 2026, with a daily decline of 9.6% and a weekly decline of 10% - The spread between the spot and the 2605 contract was -47.5, a daily decline of 8.7% and a weekly decline of 16% - The spreads between different contracts (2603 - 2605, 2603 - 2607, 2605 - 2607) also showed certain changes [1] - **Spot Market Data**: - In the log spot market, the prices of various types of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu markets were mostly stable, with only a few showing slight increases. For example, the price of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in the Shandong market increased by 1.4% week - on - week [1] - In the wood square spot market, the prices of 3 - meter and 4 - meter radiata pine wood squares in some regions also showed slight increases, such as a 4.1% week - on - week increase in the 3 - meter radiata pine wood square in Rizhao [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - China's January RatingDog Manufacturing PMI was 50.3, in line with expectations and higher than the previous value of 50.1 [3] - Multiple real - estate enterprise related personnel stated that currently, their companies are no longer required by regulatory authorities to report the "Three Red Lines" indicators monthly. However, some troubled real - estate enterprises are required to regularly report financial indicators such as asset - liability ratio to the special team in the city where their headquarters are located [3][4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The log trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]

商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 3 日 原木：小幅探涨 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 原木基本面数据 | 项 目 | 价格指标 | 2026/1/28 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | 2026/1/27 | | 2026/2/2 2026/1/30 | | 2026/1/29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2603合约（收盘价） 795 798 785 775.5 775.5 | | | -0.4% | | | 2.5% | | | | | 2603合约（成交量） 11027 15438 9866 2751 3684 | | | -28.6% | | | 199% | | | | | 2603合约（持仓量） 9071 10123 10248 10129 10340 | | | -10.4% | | | -12% | | | | | 2605合约（收盘价） 796 796.5 789.5 784.5 786.5 | | | -0.1% | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The log market is showing a slight upward trend, with the trend strength of logs being rated as "1" (indicating a relatively weak bullish sentiment) [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of log futures contracts (2603, 2605, 2607) have shown different degrees of change. For example, the 2603 contract's closing price increased by 1.7% daily and 2.8% weekly, and its trading volume soared by 56.5% daily and 205% weekly [1]. - **Spread Data**: The spreads between different futures contracts (such as 2603 - 2605, 2603 - 2607, 2605 - 2607) have also changed, and the spreads between spot and futures have increased significantly, with the spot - 2603 spread rising by 28.9% daily and 61% weekly [1]. - **Spot Market Data**: The prices of various types of logs and wood squares in the Shandong and Jiangsu markets are mostly stable, with only a few showing slight increases or decreases. For example, the price of 11.8 - meter spruce 20 + in the Jiangsu market decreased by 0.9% daily and weekly, while the price of 3 - meter radiation pine wood squares in the Zhenjiang market increased by 2.4% weekly [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - China's industrial enterprise profits in December increased by 5.3% year - on - year, and the annual growth was 0.6% [3]. - Many real estate developers are no longer required to report the "Three Red Lines" indicators monthly, but some troubled developers need to report financial indicators such as asset - liability ratios regularly [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of logs is 1, with the range of values being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. -2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [4].