深化降本增效+优化产品结构，助推老牌钢 企业绩持续改善 ——山东钢铁 2025 年半年报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据公司 2025 年半年报，我们小幅下调钢筋售价和销量、下调相关产品成本等，维 持预测公司 2025-2027 年每股净资产为 1.77、1.85、1.94 元，根据可比公司 2025 年 1.02X 的 PB 估值，对应目标价 1.80 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 宏观经济波动风险、铁矿石价格下降不及预期风险、下游需求不达预期风险、公司管理 变革与协同发展不达预期风险、公司降本效果不及预期风险、公司高端化产品开发不及 预期风险 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 90,475 | 82,094 | 77,893 | 77,748 | 78,129 | | 同比增长 (%) | -11.5% | -9.3% | -5.1% | -0.2% | 0.5% | | 营业利润(百万元) | (264) | (2,5 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's steel exports showed a mixed performance in the first half of 2025, with a significant increase in certain categories like steel billets and construction materials, while flat steel exports faced pressure due to rising trade barriers and anti-dumping measures from various countries [1][3][12]. Export Performance - In June 2025, China's steel export volume was 9.68 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 8.5% but a year-on-year increase of 10.7%. Cumulatively, 58.15 million tons were exported in the first half of the year, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.2% and a year-on-year growth of 9.2% [1]. - Asia remained the largest market for China's steel exports, with a total of 38.09 million tons exported to the region in the first half of 2025, of which 16.88 million tons went to Southeast Asia, accounting for 65.5% of exports to Asia, with a year-on-year growth of 2.5% [1]. Regional Demand - Exports to countries along the Belt and Road Initiative showed significant growth, with exports to Africa reaching 7.94 million tons (up 33.3% year-on-year) and to Latin America at 7.79 million tons (up 21% year-on-year) [2]. - The demand in Africa and Latin America is driven by large infrastructure projects, with local production capacity insufficient to meet the needs [2]. Trade Barriers Impact - China's flat steel exports faced challenges, with a total of 36.32 million tons exported in the first half of 2025, while flat steel exports decreased by 0.4% year-on-year. The decline in specific products like hot-rolled thin wide steel strips was significant, with a 25.3% drop [3][6]. - Vietnam imposed anti-dumping duties on Chinese hot-rolled products, leading to a 42.4% decrease in exports to Vietnam in the first half of 2025 [4]. Export Structure Changes - The export structure showed a clear divergence, with flat steel exports declining while steel billets, rebar, and wire rod saw substantial increases. Steel billets exports surged by 300.3%, driven by overseas infrastructure investments [6][12]. - The first half of 2025 saw a notable increase in exports of special steel bars, reaching 1.4 million tons, a year-on-year growth of 54.93%, attributed to strong demand in Southeast Asia and Latin America [10][11]. Future Outlook - The overall trend indicates that while flat steel exports may continue to face challenges due to trade barriers, the demand for steel billets and construction materials is expected to remain strong, particularly in emerging markets along the Belt and Road Initiative [12].