Group 1: Steel Consumption Performance - Overall steel consumption has been poor, with rebar consumption down 4.5% year-on-year and wire rod down 7.8% [1] - Despite the decline in construction steel consumption, plate consumption has increased, supporting high furnace iron output [2] - The average daily transaction volume of building materials in September is only slightly up by 1% compared to previous years, indicating weaker demand during the peak season [3] Group 2: Production and Profitability - Steel mills are facing significant profit pressure due to falling steel prices and rising raw material costs, with rebar profits nearing a loss state [1][4] - High furnace iron output remains elevated at 237.2 million tons per day, despite poor steel consumption, due to strong plate demand [2] - Steel mills may need to reduce production to restore profitability, but this is contingent on various factors, including potential government policies [4][5] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The market is currently in a phase of unclear trends, with both upward and downward pressures on steel prices [7] - The potential for government policies to stimulate consumption or enforce production cuts could significantly impact the steel market [6][7] - The steel industry is undergoing a "反内卷" (anti-involution) movement aimed at improving product quality and managing competition [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][2]. Core Views - The company has achieved a turnaround in profitability, reporting a net profit of approximately 12.53 million yuan in the first half of 2025, with a significant improvement in the second quarter [8]. - Cost reduction and efficiency enhancement have been key drivers for the company's improved profitability, with a notable reduction in comparable costs by 65.90 yuan per ton compared to the previous year [8]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure by reducing the sales proportion of lower-margin rebar products and increasing the sales of higher-margin specialty steel products [8]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to decline from 90.475 billion yuan in 2023 to 77.893 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 11.5% in 2023 and 5.1% in 2025 [11]. - The company is expected to return to profitability with a net profit of 25 million yuan in 2025, following losses in previous years [11]. - Gross margin is anticipated to improve from 4.0% in 2023 to 5.4% in 2025, while net margin is expected to reach 0.0% in 2025 [11]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.00 yuan in 2025, with a gradual increase to 0.14 yuan by 2027 [11]. Valuation and Target Price - The target price for the company is set at 1.80 yuan, based on a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.02X for comparable companies [2][4]. - The current share price is 1.55 yuan, indicating potential upside based on the target price [4].

Group 1 - China's steel exports reached 9.836 million tons in July, a year-on-year increase of 25.7%, with cumulative exports from January to July at 67.98 million tons, up 11.4% year-on-year [1] - Asia remains the largest market for China's steel exports, with Southeast Asia showing a slower growth rate of 2.5% year-on-year in the first half of the year, primarily due to anti-dumping measures from some countries [1] - Exports to countries along the "Belt and Road" initiative have seen significant growth, with exports to Africa increasing by 33.3% and to Latin America by 21% in the first half of the year [1] Group 2 - The export structure of steel shows a divergence, with flat products accounting for 62.5% of total exports, but facing a decline due to anti-dumping taxes from countries like Vietnam and India [1] - In contrast, exports of steel billets, rebar, wire rods, and special steel bars have surged, with year-on-year increases of 300.3%, 89.2%, 47.4%, and 54.93% respectively, driven by infrastructure demand in emerging markets [1] - The overall trend indicates a "flat products under pressure, while billets, construction materials, and special steel bars expand rapidly," with expectations for this trend to continue [1] Group 3 - As of August 8, total inventory of five major steel products was 13.754 million tons, a 1.74% increase month-on-month, while production slightly increased by 0.21% and consumption decreased by 0.74% [3] - Despite a significant decline in new construction area in the real estate sector impacting steel consumption, strong resilience in steel exports is noted, alongside upcoming policies aimed at reducing crude steel production [3] - Environmental restrictions in places like Tangshan during the commemoration of the 80th anniversary of the victory in the War of Resistance against Japan will lead to production cuts, further tightening supply [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - China's steel exports showed a mixed performance in the first half of 2025, with a significant increase in certain categories like steel billets and construction materials, while flat steel exports faced pressure due to rising trade barriers and anti-dumping measures from various countries [1][3][12]. Export Performance - In June 2025, China's steel export volume was 9.68 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 8.5% but a year-on-year increase of 10.7%. Cumulatively, 58.15 million tons were exported in the first half of the year, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.2% and a year-on-year growth of 9.2% [1]. - Asia remained the largest market for China's steel exports, with a total of 38.09 million tons exported to the region in the first half of 2025, of which 16.88 million tons went to Southeast Asia, accounting for 65.5% of exports to Asia, with a year-on-year growth of 2.5% [1]. Regional Demand - Exports to countries along the Belt and Road Initiative showed significant growth, with exports to Africa reaching 7.94 million tons (up 33.3% year-on-year) and to Latin America at 7.79 million tons (up 21% year-on-year) [2]. - The demand in Africa and Latin America is driven by large infrastructure projects, with local production capacity insufficient to meet the needs [2]. Trade Barriers Impact - China's flat steel exports faced challenges, with a total of 36.32 million tons exported in the first half of 2025, while flat steel exports decreased by 0.4% year-on-year. The decline in specific products like hot-rolled thin wide steel strips was significant, with a 25.3% drop [3][6]. - Vietnam imposed anti-dumping duties on Chinese hot-rolled products, leading to a 42.4% decrease in exports to Vietnam in the first half of 2025 [4]. Export Structure Changes - The export structure showed a clear divergence, with flat steel exports declining while steel billets, rebar, and wire rod saw substantial increases. Steel billets exports surged by 300.3%, driven by overseas infrastructure investments [6][12]. - The first half of 2025 saw a notable increase in exports of special steel bars, reaching 1.4 million tons, a year-on-year growth of 54.93%, attributed to strong demand in Southeast Asia and Latin America [10][11]. Future Outlook - The overall trend indicates that while flat steel exports may continue to face challenges due to trade barriers, the demand for steel billets and construction materials is expected to remain strong, particularly in emerging markets along the Belt and Road Initiative [12].