吴波是一家华东地区保租房社区运营管理机构负责人，今年起，他几乎每周都要抽出不少时间来接 待不同类型金融机构的投资考察。这些机构包括保险、私募基金、券商资管与银行理财子公司等。 起初，这些机构考察的重点是，保租房REITs的发行主体是否实力强劲、预期年化分红率是否足够 高、项目现金流状况是否良好。后来他发现，自己与金融机构讨论最多的是，保租房REITs的抗周 期属性与较高分红率。 由于租房市场价格持续下降与保租房供给量持续增加（竞争日 益激烈），投资机构对保租房REITs的投资态度也变得谨慎， 他们更相信实实在在的运营绩效提升数据，而不是抗周期概念 与所谓的讲故事。 作者： 陈植 封图：图虫创意 自从负责运营的保障性租赁住房项目不动产投资信托基金（下称"保租房REIT"）上市后，吴波的 工作就变得格外忙碌。 相对稳健的城市白领，令保租房REITs的租金收缴率与现金流运营状况相对较好，年化分红率也优 于其他类型REITs。 因此，只要保租房REITs年化分红率超过4%且分红率保持稳定，这些金融机构就认为它符合投资 项目内部上会要求，会积极推动将保租房REITs纳入资产多元配置范畴。若保租房REITs运营方拥 有将 ...

自从负责运营的保障性租赁住房项目不动产投资信托基金（下称"保租房REIT"）上市后，吴波的工作 就变得格外忙碌。 吴波是一家华东地区保租房社区运营管理机构负责人，今年起，他几乎每周都要抽出不少时间来接待不 同类型金融机构的投资考察。这些机构包括保险、私募基金、券商资管与银行理财子公司等。 起初，这些机构考察的重点是，保租房REITs的发行主体是否实力强劲、预期年化分红率是否足够高、 项目现金流状况是否良好。后来他发现，自己与金融机构讨论最多的是，保租房REITs的抗周期属性与 较高分红率。 因此，只要保租房REITs年化分红率超过4%且分红率保持稳定，这些金融机构就认为它符合投资项目内 部上会要求，会积极推动将保租房REITs纳入资产多元配置范畴。若保租房REITs运营方拥有将保租房 社区"变废为宝"，令ROE（净资产收益率）由低转高的丰富经验，更是投资"加分项"。 负责城投宽庭REIT运营的上海城投置业经营管理有限公司常务副总经理吴弢告诉记者，在效益表现方 面，城投宽庭2024年租金收入规模突破5亿元，较2021年实现近10倍的增长。 记者多方了解到，保租房REITs的抗周期属性与较高分红率，令其成为新的" ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and future prospects of the real estate industry, emphasizing the importance of understanding historical trends and the potential for credit recovery in the Chinese real estate market [3][4]. Group 1: Historical Perspective - The series of discussions will cover the past, present, and future of real estate, starting with a review of overseas research and comparisons with the U.S. and Japan to highlight China's credit recovery capabilities [3][4]. - The historical analysis includes a focus on Japan's housing market and its resilience during economic downturns, suggesting that similar strategies could be beneficial for China [4]. Group 2: Current Focus - In-depth company analyses will be conducted, including studies on major players like China Merchants Shekou and China Resources Land, highlighting their strategies for navigating economic cycles [3][4]. - The discussions will also address the financial cycles affecting real estate, providing insights into how companies can adapt to current market conditions [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The framework for future research will include topics such as rental housing REITs and commercial REITs, indicating a shift towards more diversified investment strategies in the real estate sector [4]. - The article emphasizes the significance of real estate as a pillar industry and its impact on related sectors, suggesting that understanding these dynamics is crucial for future investment decisions [4].

Summary of Key Points from REITs Conference Call Industry Overview - The REITs market has experienced a valuation correction, providing entry opportunities for investors as valuations have returned to a reasonable range, with the standard deviation indicating a departure from previously high levels [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments - **Industrial Park Sector**: The industrial park segment continues to show weakness, particularly in second-tier cities where the marginal decline has exceeded expectations due to poor supply-demand dynamics. The supply side remains large, while demand is contracting as companies focus on cost reduction [1][4] - **Logistics and Warehousing**: The logistics and warehousing sector outperformed expectations in Q2, rebounding after a decline influenced by tariffs. The South China region faces significant supply pressure, while the North and East China regions continue to experience rental pressure. The Chengdu-Chongqing area shows signs of marginal recovery [1][11] - **Affordable Rental Housing**: The affordable rental housing sector demonstrated stability in Q2, with a 3.5% increase in revenue and high occupancy rates around 96%. This sector is noted for its strong anti-cyclical properties [1][14] - **Consumer REITs**: The consumer REITs sector faced seasonal impacts, with a general revenue decline of 5.5% in Q2. REITs with a high proportion of joint ventures experienced more significant fluctuations [1][15] Additional Important Insights - **Highway REITs**: There is operational differentiation within highway REITs, with overall toll revenue declining but EBITDA increasing due to effective cost control. Passenger vehicle revenue decreased while freight vehicle revenue increased, indicating a recovery in freight demand [3][18][20] - **Energy and Environmental REITs**: Wastewater treatment projects outperformed waste-to-energy projects. The market for renewable energy projects is influenced by regional policies and market pricing reforms [3][19][25] - **Market Dynamics**: The REITs market has seen a general adjustment, with an index decline of approximately 3% and individual securities experiencing declines of 5% to 8%. This adjustment is primarily driven by profit-taking behavior [2][27] - **Future Considerations**: Investors are advised to focus on projects with proven operational capabilities and stable income sources, particularly in the context of ongoing market volatility and economic uncertainty [6][9][31] Conclusion - The REITs market is currently characterized by a mix of challenges and opportunities across various sectors, with a notable emphasis on the importance of operational efficiency and market adaptability in navigating the evolving landscape.

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in China's public REITs (C-REITs) market follows a period of sustained growth, primarily driven by profit-taking and a rebound in risk appetite in the equity market, rather than a deterioration in market fundamentals [1][2][3]. Market Performance - From late May to June 23, the China Securities REITs Total Return Index rose from 1090.07 to a peak of 1124.91, before experiencing a decline [2]. - Various REITs sectors saw approximately 2% pullback, with the consumer sector experiencing the largest decline, while energy and industrial park sectors showed relatively smaller declines [2]. - The average daily turnover in June was 5.50 billion yuan, reflecting a 7.6% increase compared to the previous month [3]. Regulatory Environment - The approval pace for new C-REITs has accelerated, with 68 listed products and a total market value of 206.07 billion yuan as of June 27, 2025 [4]. - There are currently 28 REITs awaiting listing, indicating a robust pipeline for future growth [4]. Policy Support - Recent policy initiatives have expanded the types of underlying assets eligible for REITs, including consumer infrastructure, cultural tourism, and healthcare [5][6]. - The approval of the first two public data center REITs marks a significant expansion in the asset types available for C-REITs [5]. Investment Opportunities - C-REITs are expected to remain attractive to long-term capital due to ongoing demand amid a low-interest-rate environment and an "asset shortage" [7]. - Analysts suggest that consumer infrastructure REITs are likely to perform well, particularly in core cities, due to their stable rental income and resilience to economic cycles [8].

Summary of the Housing Rental Market in China for H1 2025 Core Viewpoint The rental market in key cities in China is experiencing slight fluctuations, with an overall average rental price decline of 1.37% across 50 cities in the first half of 2025, while first-tier cities show more stability [1][2]. Group 1: Rental Price Trends - The average rental price in 50 cities decreased by 1.37% in H1 2025, with a more pronounced decline compared to the same period last year [2][4]. - In June 2025, the average rental price was 35.0 yuan per square meter per month, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.27% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.71% [2]. - First-tier cities experienced a smaller rental price decline of 0.56%, while second-tier cities saw a drop of 1.83% and third/fourth-tier cities a decline of 1.47% [4]. Group 2: Rental Income Ratio - The rental income ratio across 50 cities averaged 16.4% as of June 2025, down from 17.8% in June 2024, indicating a gradual decline [6]. - Major cities like Beijing, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou showed significant decreases in their rental income ratios compared to the previous year [6]. Group 3: Investment Returns - The rental-to-price ratio in key cities increased to 2.17% by June 2025, up from 2.09% a year earlier, indicating improved rental returns for quality assets [8][10]. - The rental market is benefiting from rigid demand and improved rental quality, leading to a more favorable investment environment [10]. Group 4: Affordable Rental Housing - As of the end of 2023, 573,000 affordable rental housing units have been completed, achieving 66% of the "14th Five-Year Plan" target of 870,000 units [11]. - The pace of affordable rental housing collection may slow down in 2025, with many regions lowering their annual targets compared to 2024 [12]. Group 5: REITs Performance - The overall performance of affordable rental housing REITs showed a slight decline in Q1 2025, with income and net profit generally decreasing by less than 6% [16]. - The issuance of affordable rental housing REITs has accelerated, with two new REITs launched in H1 2025, bringing the total to eight and raising nearly 12 billion yuan [16].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by Shanghai Minhang Public Rental Housing Investment and Operation Co., Ltd. regarding the public acquisition of rental housing has garnered industry attention, indicating a trend towards expanding the supply of affordable rental housing and enhancing the REITs market for such properties [1][2]. Group 1: Public Acquisition Announcement - The announcement aims to optimize housing resource allocation and promote stable development in the real estate market by publicly soliciting real estate projects for use as affordable rental housing [2]. - Eligible projects must be legal new residential properties with a minimum total construction area of 7,500 square meters, located in the southern part of Minhang District, and free from ownership disputes [2]. Group 2: Benefits of Utilizing Existing Properties - Converting existing properties into affordable rental housing can significantly shorten construction timelines, typically requiring only 3 to 6 months for renovations [2][3]. - This approach not only meets the housing needs of low-income groups but also enhances the city's attractiveness and talent retention capabilities [2][3]. Group 3: Financial Innovation and REITs Expansion - The successful acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing, exemplified by the Guotai Junan City Investment REIT, demonstrates strong policy support for the development of the rental housing market [4][5]. - The REITs market for affordable housing is expected to expand, with projections indicating that the overall issuance scale could exceed 25 billion yuan by 2025 [6]. - Recent activities, such as the completion of the first public offering and expansion of the Huaxia Beijing Affordable Housing REIT, highlight the growing maturity and resilience of the affordable housing REITs market [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of rental housing REITs is expected to remain positive due to favorable policies and the scarcity of high-yield products, but investors should be cautious of potential risks behind the "hot market" [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Huatai Suzhou Hengtai Rental Housing REIT was suspended twice this week due to rapid price increases, with a closing price of 4.178 yuan per share on May 23, 2025, representing a 52.82% increase from the base price of 2.734 yuan per share [2]. - On May 26, 2025, the REIT's closing price reached 4.133 yuan per share, leading to another suspension after a cumulative increase of 16.29% over three trading days [2]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - The REIT's popularity is attributed to frequent favorable national policies and the distinct advantages of mandatory dividends and high yields in a market with limited supply of high-yield products [3]. - The subscription multiples for the REIT were notably high, with offline subscriptions at 216.91 times and public subscriptions at 829.78 times, indicating strong demand [3]. Group 3: Risks - Three main risks in the public REITs market include price volatility risk, high premium risk, and operational risk of underlying assets [4][5]. - Price volatility can lead to significant deviations from net asset values due to short-term speculation and market sentiment [4]. - High premiums can erode actual cash flow distribution rates, as demonstrated by the projected cash flow distribution rates of 4.00% and 4.07% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, which decrease with rising secondary market prices [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The current rental housing REITs are considered "top performers," primarily located in first- and second-tier cities with strong rental demand, suggesting limited investment risks [5]. - However, as the market expands, the difficulty in identifying quality underlying assets will increase, necessitating careful evaluation of rental demand and operational quality [7].

Core Viewpoint - The public REITs market continues to thrive, with the recent listing of Huatai Suzhou Hengtai Rental Housing REIT achieving a 30% limit-up on its first trading day, reflecting strong investor interest and market dynamics [1][2][3]. Market Performance - As of May 20, the CSI REITs Total Return Index and the CSI REITs Index have increased by 11.99% and 9.51% year-to-date, respectively, outperforming major indices such as the CSI 300 Index and the CSI Dividend Index [1]. - A total of seven new REITs have been listed this year, with five achieving a 30% limit-up on their debut [5]. Specific REIT Details - Huatai Suzhou Hengtai Rental Housing REIT's opening price was 3.554 yuan, with a trading volume of 362.87 million yuan and a turnover rate of only 0.68% [4]. - The REIT's underlying asset, the Jingying Apartment project, has an estimated asset value of 1.261 billion yuan, with projected cash distribution rates of 4.34% and 4.41% for the years 2025 and 2026, respectively [4]. Investor Interest - The total subscription amount for Huatai Suzhou Hengtai Rental Housing REIT exceeded 165.6 billion yuan, with a public investor subscription confirmation rate of only 0.1205%, marking one of the lowest allocation ratios in public REITs history [4]. Sector Analysis - The rental housing REITs sector has expanded significantly, with eight products listed as of May 21, 2023, and an average year-to-date increase of 24.7%, outperforming the overall public REITs average increase of 20.28% [6][8]. - The overall market capitalization of the rental housing REITs sector rose from 11.956 billion yuan at the end of last year to 16.235 billion yuan [8]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the public REITs market may experience a narrowing of new issuance yields due to the low-risk interest rates since December 2024, despite the strong performance of rental housing REITs [5]. - There is a recommendation for investors to focus on potential buying opportunities following market corrections, particularly in the rental housing and consumer sectors, which exhibit stable performance [9].

点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 项目基本面经营分化差异加剧。1）产业园： 产业园区供需压力进一步加大，大部分项目主动或被动进入降价竞争。我们统计板块收入同环比分别下降 11.8%和7.7%。由于供需端矛盾尚未缓解，我们认为产业园后续经营或仍将持续波动。 2）物流仓储： 大部分项目通过下调租金应对供给冲击和存量竞 争，促使同口径下板块收入重回下降通道，同环比下滑4.8%和3.6%。供需再平衡过程中，一季度特朗普关税不确定性或也将影响物流仓储租户行为。 3） 保租房： 保租房板块受宏观经济影响较小，一季度板块收入仅出现小幅波动，出租率维持较高水平，租金水平变化则出现小幅分化，其中政策性保租房 租金保持稳定或略有上涨，市场化项目则出现环比下滑，但整体仍符合预期。 4）消费： 得益于各地促消费政策，消费REITs一季度开局良好，我们测算 可比口径收入环比上升1.7%，收入完成度较好。 5）高速： 受低基数与路网变化的影响，高速项目表现分化明显，往后看我们认为板块仍有望延续稳中 向好态势，但路网变化对于单条路产影响较大，应持续关注分流影响。 6）市政环保： 生物质发电项目吨发表现、成本管控好于预期，水务受合肥 ...