大势未改,微澜有别 刘玉(分析师) 021-38038263 ■ 2025年 REITs 二季度李报点评 食记编亏 S0880523050002 整体来看,二季度 REIT 经营表现基本延续预期趋势,但本轮 REIT 行情回调正值 汤志宇(研究助理) 投资者风险偏好转换,大类资产行情轮动期,基本面定价权重较小。 021-38031036 tangzhivu(a)gt 登记编号 | 势如破竹,固收加规模强势增长 2025.07.29 | | --- | | 绿色债券:现状、绿色溢价与挖掘价值 | | 2025.07.29 | | 债市波动下,债券 ETF 的表现和套利机会 | | 2025.07.28 | | "反内卷":价格信号对债市影响几何 2025.07.27 | | 从技术指标看,债市止跌有哪些先行指示 | 低,但从板块结构上来看区别较大。一季度报披露后 REIT 行情整 2025.07.26 体回调,板块间分化大,主要由产业园板块领跌,经营稳健板块跌 幅较小,消费板块不降反升;二季度报披露后 REIT 行情虽也整体 回调,但板块间分化相对较小,且主要由经营更稳健的保障房、市 政板块领跌,产业园板块跌幅 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report provides an overview of the performance and operational status of the招商基金招商蛇口租赁住房封闭式基础设施证券投资基金 for the second quarter of 2025, highlighting its focus on rental housing projects in Shenzhen and the financial metrics associated with these investments [1][3]. Fund Product Overview - The fund is named招商基金招商蛇口租赁住房封闭式基础设施证券投资基金, with a total of 500 million shares at the end of the reporting period [1]. - The fund primarily invests over 80% of its assets in infrastructure asset-backed securities, aiming for long-term stable cash flow growth from infrastructure projects [1][3]. - The fund's contract duration is 52 years, and it was established on September 26, 2024, with shares listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [1][3]. Financial Indicators and Fund Operations - For the reporting period from April 1, 2025, to June 30, 2025, the fund reported a distributable amount of CNY 13,873,645.95, with a per-share distribution of CNY 0.0277 [3][5]. - The total income for the period was CNY 19,968,323.06, with a net profit of CNY 713,294.75 [3][5]. - The fund incurred management fees totaling CNY 340,899.65 and operational management fees of CNY 2,213,044.43 during the reporting period [3][5]. Asset Project Basic Information - The fund holds two rental housing projects in Shenzhen, with a total of 927 rental units and 15 commercial units, covering a rental area of 65,253.27 square meters [4][5]. - The 林下 project has been operational since March 2016, while the 太子湾 project has been operational since May 2020, both showing stable operational performance without any major incidents or disputes [4][5]. Cash Flow and Recovery Fund Usage - The total cash inflow for both projects during the reporting period was CNY 22,882,340.63, while total cash outflow was CNY 10,362,390.33 [5][6]. - The original equity holder has committed to using 85% of the net recovery funds for infrastructure projects, with CNY 59,430.58 million allocated for investment [6][8]. Management and Personnel - The fund management team includes experienced professionals with backgrounds in finance and infrastructure project management, ensuring effective oversight and operational management [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - Insurance funds continue to show strong interest in Shanghai assets, specifically in rental housing projects, as evidenced by the recent investment in the Youmi community [2] Group 1: Investment Details - The "CITIC Jinshi Fund · Lingyu International Rental Housing Infrastructure Pre-REITs Fund" was established by AIA Insurance, Zhonghong Insurance, and others, focusing on rental housing investments [2] - The fund has invested in the Youmi community located in Songjiang, Shanghai, which consists of 2,252 rental units and covers an area of over 136,000 square meters [2][4] - The original shareholders of the asset include Lingyu International (20%), CITIC Jinshi (40%), Zhonghong Insurance (25%), and CITIC Securities (14.8462%) [4] Group 2: Future Plans - The Pre-REITs fund will be managed by CITIC Jinshi and operated by Lingyu International, with plans to incubate the Youmi community project for future public REITs listing [4] - The fund aims to further explore new project collaborations within the rental housing sector [4] Group 3: Other Investments - Beyond Shanghai, AIA Insurance has also acquired assets in Beijing, specifically a 95% stake in the CapitaLand Star Trade project for nearly 2.4 billion yuan [4]

Core Viewpoint - The rental housing REITs market is experiencing strong demand resilience, with ongoing supply pressures in the short term, driven by urbanization trends and demographic factors [4][10]. Group 1: Market Supply and Demand Dynamics - Demand for rental housing remains robust, supported by net population inflows into major cities and extended rental periods due to delayed marriage and high housing prices [4][8]. - The supply of affordable rental housing is accelerating, with a cumulative construction of 7.27 million units expected by the end of 2024, achieving 84% of the "14th Five-Year Plan" target [4][20]. - The rental market is expected to face short-term supply pressures, particularly in markets with concentrated supply releases, although affordable rental housing is anticipated to outperform the overall rental market [29][30]. Group 2: Evaluating Rental Housing Operational Capability - The operational capability of rental housing can be assessed through asset quality, operational efficiency, and financial metrics [5][45]. - Asset quality considers project location, supply-demand dynamics, and property management capabilities [45][46]. - Operational efficiency focuses on leasing capabilities and tenant management, while financial metrics emphasize cash flow stability [45][49]. Group 3: Outlook for Rental Housing REITs Market Development - The rental housing REITs market is expected to expand through new issuances and capital increases, supported by a substantial stock of rental housing and private fund exit demands [6][52]. - The low-interest-rate environment and "asset scarcity" are likely to sustain the appeal of rental housing REITs as quality investment assets [6][54]. - As of June 18, 2025, the dividend yield for rental housing REITs reached 2.6%, with a narrowing spread compared to the ten-year government bond yield [54][57].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of rental housing REITs is expected to remain positive due to favorable policies and the scarcity of high-yield products, but investors should be cautious of potential risks behind the "hot market" [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Huatai Suzhou Hengtai Rental Housing REIT was suspended twice this week due to rapid price increases, with a closing price of 4.178 yuan per share on May 23, 2025, representing a 52.82% increase from the base price of 2.734 yuan per share [2]. - On May 26, 2025, the REIT's closing price reached 4.133 yuan per share, leading to another suspension after a cumulative increase of 16.29% over three trading days [2]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - The REIT's popularity is attributed to frequent favorable national policies and the distinct advantages of mandatory dividends and high yields in a market with limited supply of high-yield products [3]. - The subscription multiples for the REIT were notably high, with offline subscriptions at 216.91 times and public subscriptions at 829.78 times, indicating strong demand [3]. Group 3: Risks - Three main risks in the public REITs market include price volatility risk, high premium risk, and operational risk of underlying assets [4][5]. - Price volatility can lead to significant deviations from net asset values due to short-term speculation and market sentiment [4]. - High premiums can erode actual cash flow distribution rates, as demonstrated by the projected cash flow distribution rates of 4.00% and 4.07% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, which decrease with rising secondary market prices [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The current rental housing REITs are considered "top performers," primarily located in first- and second-tier cities with strong rental demand, suggesting limited investment risks [5]. - However, as the market expands, the difficulty in identifying quality underlying assets will increase, necessitating careful evaluation of rental demand and operational quality [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Suzhou Hengtai Rental Housing REIT has officially listed, marking Jiangsu's first rental housing REIT and the eighth public REIT for affordable rental housing in the market, with a significant opening day increase of 29.99% [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Details - The fund raised a total of RMB 1.367 billion, with a total issuance of 500 million shares priced at RMB 2.734 per share, and has a duration of 48 years [2]. - On its first trading day, the fund's price surged to RMB 4.178 per share, reflecting a 52.82% increase from the base price, and it was temporarily suspended due to the price increase [2][4]. - The underlying asset of the REIT is the "Elite Apartment" community, which includes 28 public rental housing buildings and has a total area of 282,400 square meters [2][4]. Group 2: Rental Performance - The average rent for the residential units in the underlying asset is RMB 26.17 per square meter per month, while the average rent for supporting properties is RMB 37.12 per square meter per month [4]. - The occupancy rates from 2020 to 2023 were 91.10%, 90.11%, 90.97%, and 87.97%, with a noted decline attributed to internal renovations planned for 2024 [4]. - By the end of 2024, approximately 92.85% of the rental contracts for the residential portion will expire in 2025, indicating a concentration of lease expirations [4]. Group 3: Future Expansion Plans - The controlling entity, Hengtai Group, plans to invest approximately RMB 7 billion in new rental housing construction over the next five years and has already secured 12 quality reserve projects totaling 1,173,400 square meters [5]. - The company aims to align existing projects with public REIT issuance standards and improve operational efficiency while minimizing impacts on customer experience [5]. Group 4: Market Trends - Since the launch of the first rental housing REIT in 2022, a total of eight rental housing REITs have been listed, indicating a growing interest in this investment vehicle [6]. - The rental housing REIT sector has shown strong performance, with a 29.8% increase in the price index for rental housing REITs in Q1 2025, driven by supportive policies and stable distribution rates [6][7]. - The cumulative issuance scale of affordable rental housing REITs is expected to exceed RMB 25 billion, reflecting the increasing supply and demand in the rental housing market [7].

Group 1 - The report highlights the listing of the first "commercial reform and guarantee" REIT in China, the Huatai Fu Shanghai Real Estate Rental Housing REIT, which was approved on March 5, 2025, and completed its issuance on March 18, 2025, with a public subscription multiple of 494 times [1][7]. - The report notes that the REIT market has shown strong demand, with the offline inquiry multiple reaching 180.74 times, setting a new high for public REITs in 2023 [1][7]. - The Shanghai Real Estate Group aims to connect its quality affordable rental housing assets with the capital market through this innovative REIT model, thereby increasing the supply of affordable rental housing [1][7]. Group 2 - The report indicates that the REIT market has experienced an upward trend, with the CSI REITs total return index rising by 0.63% and the total REITs index increasing by 0.84% during the week of March 31 to April 3, 2025 [2][13]. - The report mentions that the total issuance scale of listed REITs reached 169.7 billion yuan, with a total of 64 REITs issued as of April 3, 2025 [8]. - The report identifies the leading performers in the REIT market, including the Bosera Tian Kai Industrial Park REIT, which increased by 3.93%, followed by the Hongtu Shenzhen Anju REIT and Guotai Junan Dongjiu New Economy REIT, with increases of 3.80% and 3.65%, respectively [2][13]. Group 3 - The report states that the overall trading activity in the REIT market has increased, with a total trading volume of 612 million yuan, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 4.7% [3][34]. - It details the trading volume for different categories of REITs, with the largest being transportation infrastructure, accounting for 28.0% of the total trading volume [3][34]. - The report provides insights into the trading volume changes for various REIT categories, noting significant increases in park infrastructure and energy infrastructure categories [3][34]. Group 4 - The report discusses the correlation of the CSI REITs index with other major asset classes, indicating a correlation coefficient of 0.262 with the CSI All Bond index over the past 20 days [27]. - It highlights the internal correlation among different REIT categories, with the industrial park REITs index showing a strong correlation with the affordable rental housing REITs index [28]. - The report provides a detailed analysis of the historical performance of various REIT categories, indicating trends and correlations that may influence future investment decisions [28].