证券研究报告：固定收益报告 发布时间：2025-12-11 研究所 ⚫ 理财规模有望继续增长，收益率仍面临挑战 理财规模站稳 30 万亿大关，新增发行产品有序扩容。2025 年三 季度，银行理财规模达 32.13 万亿，产品数量稳步上升，固收占绝对 多数，风险类别向二级集中，参与人数持续增加。低利率环境下，理 财产品的底层资产收益曲线整体下移。2025 年理财产品普遍通过投资 低波动、短久期和高流动性资产的方式降低影响，并且增加同业存款 比例，抗波动能力进一步提升，债市行为主要体现为对同业存单的偏 好大幅上升和对企业债的规避，以及信用债哑铃型配置策略和政金债 降低久期。综合来看，存款脱媒背景下，理财 2026 年规模仍有增长 空间，在监管去通道化、净值透明化的要求下，理财资产配置或更加 偏重稳健，流动性和久期控制将是理财平稳波动的主要考量因素。 ⚫ 公募债基与理财互动深入，关注产品结构的变化趋势 近期研究报告 《连续调整后，二永的机会在哪儿？— —信用周报 20251210》 - 2025.12.10 固收周报 理财风光仍在，债基格局重塑 ——2026 年展望系列五 ⚫ 居民投资偏好回升，安全资产需求仍在 存 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that global equity markets experienced a broad rally, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index rising by 3.89% over the week, marking five consecutive weeks of gains, while the MSCI Developed Markets Index increased by 1.47% [4][9] - In the domestic market, all three major indices showed positive performance, driven by policy expectations and a focus on technology sectors, with only five out of 31 industries declining [4][9] - The report highlights that only bond ETFs recorded negative average weekly returns, while other types of ETFs achieved positive returns, particularly in stock and cross-border ETFs [4][9] Group 2 - The report notes a shift in market focus from the battery industry chain back to the artificial intelligence industry chain, particularly emphasizing the semiconductor sector due to a significant contract between Oracle and OpenAI [13][14] - The securities index continued to attract capital, with a net inflow of 61.43 billion yuan this week, following an 80 billion yuan inflow the previous week, indicating strong investor interest in this sector [14][16] - The report suggests that investors should consider taking profits in certain indices that have reached high valuations, while maintaining cash reserves for better investment opportunities [13][14] Group 3 - The report categorizes bond ETFs, noting that convertible bond ETFs performed well with an average increase of 0.24%, while the bond market adjusted due to the strong performance of the stock market [18][20] - The report mentions that the People's Bank of China released financial data indicating a significant year-on-year decrease in entity credit growth, which may pressure the growth rate of social financing [18][20] - It is suggested that if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates as expected in September, it could create more room for further rate reductions in China, leading to a more optimistic outlook for the bond market [18][20] Group 4 - The report highlights that leveraged funds continue to rise, but the proportion of ETF financing is close to historical lows, with a preference for more stable convertible and pure bond ETFs [22][23] - The net financing purchases for ETFs tracking convertible bonds and exchangeable bonds were the highest this week, with 4.1 billion yuan for convertible bond ETFs and 3.4 billion yuan for policy financial bonds [22][23] - The report identifies specific stock ETFs that attracted leveraged funds, including those linked to the Chinese Internet 50, Hong Kong Stock Connect innovative drugs, and new energy batteries [22][23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-bank financial industry [1] Core Insights - In May 2025, the average daily trading volume of funds decreased by 344 billion yuan, with a total average daily trading volume of 2,282 billion yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of 105.7% but a month-on-month decrease of 13.1% [20][21] - The net inflow of stock ETFs in May 2025 was 168.6 billion yuan, with the total existing scale at 2,341.6 billion yuan [13] - The issuance of new public funds significantly declined in May 2025, with a total of 29.3 billion shares issued, a decrease of 67.4% month-on-month and 80.2% year-on-year [27][30] - The overall ETF market size reached 4,110.6 billion yuan in May 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 68.0% and a month-on-month increase of 1.2% [49] Summary by Sections 1. Fund Market Review - The overall yield of funds increased in May 2025, with various types of funds outperforming bond indices [9] - The net inflow of stock ETFs was primarily concentrated in broad-based ETFs, with a net inflow of 171 billion yuan [13] 2. Fund Market Trading Conditions - The average daily turnover rate of funds decreased to 7.0% in May 2025, a month-on-month decrease of 3.7 percentage points [21] - The average daily trading volume of stock ETFs was 635 billion yuan, a month-on-month decrease of 24% [20] 3. Fund Market Size - The total public fund holdings reached 32.02 trillion yuan by the end of May 2025, with a slight month-on-month increase of 0.31% [30] - The issuance of new ETFs continued to decline, with 7.1 billion shares issued in May 2025, a decrease of 50.5% month-on-month [47] 4. Private Fund Overview - The number of newly registered private funds increased to 1,606 in April 2025, a month-on-month increase of 12.86% [59] - The total number of existing private funds was 141,579, with a total scale of 20 trillion yuan [63]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the non-bank financial industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the next six months [1]. Core Insights - In April 2025, the average daily trading volume of funds increased by 9 billion CNY compared to March, reaching 262.6 billion CNY, which is a 115.4% year-on-year increase and a 3.6% month-on-month increase [19]. - The net inflow of stock ETFs in April 2025 was 197.6 billion CNY, with the total existing scale reaching 2,341.6 billion CNY [13]. - The overall ETF market size in April 2025 was 4,056.5 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 63.5% and a month-on-month increase of 6.8% [47]. Summary by Sections 1. Fund Market Review - In April 2025, the overall yield of funds slightly decreased, with the net value of fund indices showing increased volatility [10]. - The bond fund index saw a slight increase, while all types of funds outperformed stock index funds [10]. 2. Fund Market Trading Conditions - The average daily turnover rate of funds in April 2025 was 10.7%, up 4.8 percentage points year-on-year and 3.0 percentage points month-on-month [20]. - The average daily trading volume of ETFs was 257.2 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 109.6% [19]. 3. Fund Market Scale - In April 2025, the issuance of new public funds significantly decreased, with a total of 58.1 billion shares issued, down 38.7% month-on-month and 54.1% year-on-year [25]. - The total public fund holdings as of April 2025 were 31.91 trillion CNY, a decrease of 1.99% month-on-month but an increase of 10.08% year-on-year [28]. 4. Private Fund Market - As of March 2025, the number of existing private funds was 142,278, with a total scale of 20 trillion CNY, reflecting a slight month-on-month increase of 0.20% [62]. - The number of newly registered private funds in March 2025 was 1,423, a significant increase of 67.02% month-on-month [60].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the non-bank financial industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the next six months [1]. Core Insights - In April 2025, the average daily trading volume of funds increased by 90 billion yuan, reaching 2,626 billion yuan, which is a 115.4% year-on-year increase and a 3.6% month-on-month increase [19][22]. - The net inflow of stock ETFs in April 2025 was 197.6 billion yuan, with a total existing scale of 2,341.6 billion yuan [13][19]. - The issuance of new public funds significantly decreased in April 2025, with a total of 58.1 billion shares issued, a 38.7% month-on-month decline and a 54.1% year-on-year decline [25][22]. - The overall ETF market size reached 40,565 billion yuan in April 2025, reflecting a 63.5% year-on-year increase and a 6.8% month-on-month increase [44][43]. - The average turnover rate of funds in April 2025 was 10.7%, which is a 4.8 percentage point increase year-on-year and a 3.0 percentage point increase month-on-month [20][19]. Summary by Sections Fund Market Review - The overall fund index value fluctuated upward in April 2025, with bond fund indices showing slight increases compared to stock indices [10][11]. - The average daily turnover rate of funds increased, indicating heightened trading activity [20][19]. Fund Market Trading Situation - The average daily trading volume of funds rose significantly, with ETFs also showing strong trading activity [19][22]. - Stock ETFs experienced a net inflow, particularly in broad-based ETFs, while financial sector ETFs saw outflows [17][13]. Fund Market Scale Situation - The issuance of new public funds saw a notable decline, while the overall scale and holdings of ETFs increased [22][43]. - The total public fund holdings slightly decreased, with open-end funds experiencing a more significant decline compared to closed-end funds [28][31]. Private Fund Situation - The number of newly registered private funds increased significantly in March 2025, indicating a growing interest in private investment vehicles [57][59]. - The total scale of existing private funds showed a slight increase, with a notable rise in the number of new registrations [59][57].

Core Insights - The bond market experienced significant volatility in Q1 2023, leading to a notable contraction in bond fund sizes, with a total reduction of approximately 482 billion yuan compared to the end of 2022 [1][2] - Pure bond funds were particularly affected, with substantial declines in both medium- and long-term pure bond funds and short-term pure bond funds, while mixed bond funds showed some growth [2][3] Bond Fund Size Reduction - As of the end of Q1 2023, the total size of bond funds, including bond ETFs, was about 10.07 trillion yuan, down nearly 482 billion yuan from the end of 2022 [1][2] - Medium- and long-term pure bond funds saw a decrease of approximately 349.68 billion yuan, while short-term pure bond funds decreased by about 176.88 billion yuan [2] - The total number of bond fund shares decreased by approximately 437.98 billion shares, with medium- and long-term pure bond funds losing around 278.64 billion shares [2] Market Dynamics - The bond market experienced a rapid rise at the beginning of the year, followed by a decline in February and March, with the 30-year government bond futures dropping over 6% during this period [2][3] - The volatility in the bond market led to increased net redemptions in pure bond funds, driven by investor behavior and market conditions [3] Economic Impact and Policy Outlook - The Chinese economy showed stable growth in Q1 2023, influenced by various policies, but is expected to face challenges in Q2 due to external factors such as tariffs and a slowdown in global demand [5] - There is an increasing probability of monetary easing measures, such as interest rate cuts, being implemented in Q2, which may limit risks in the bond market [5]