持续调整，恢复增长 汤臣倍健(300146) ——公司跟踪报告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.11.22 2025-11-24 食品饮料 [Table_Industry] /必需消费 [Table_Invest] [Table_Target] [Table_CurPrice] 本报告导读： 低基数下，优化产品、运营，业绩恢复增长。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 9,407 | 6,838 | 6,291 | 6,606 | 7,134 | | (+/-)% | 19.7% | -27.3% | -8.0% | 5.0% | 8.0% | | 净利润(归母) | 1,746 | 653 | 785 | 875 | 1,039 | | (+/-)% | 26.0% | -62.6% | 20.2% | 11.4% | 18.9% | | 每股净收益(元) | 1.03 | 0.39 ...

体能赛和越野跑令人血脉偾张，但相比完赛的坚持，大部分人对「关节健康」的重视程度显然不足。 要知道，在运动过程中，大部分的冲击实际是被关节所消化吸收。比如跑步时，膝关节所承担的压力是自身体重的4倍；深蹲或跪姿时，膝盖所承担的压 力达到了体重的8倍。 另一方面，2021年我国骨关节炎患病人数已超过1.5亿[1]。 在关节健康恶化的当下，运动康复领域更快嗅到了商机，疼痛按摩椅、艾草热敷、穴位按摩，甚至部分健身房也开始推出关节舒缓课程。 而在对国内针对关节炎患者的消费品的梳理中，比如汤臣倍健针对骨骼健康的护关节品牌健力多在5年内实现了营业收入从1亿到10亿的突破[2]。 而关节按摩仪淘宝2020年的平均月销售额达到2318万，产品适用部位包括手腕、脚踝、膝盖等全身关节，针对膝关节的按摩产品数量占绝对优势[2]。 2020年10月淘宝关节按摩仪销售数据，图源：Ageclub 其实相比这些被动治疗，积极运动对于关节健康的提升有着更大的效益。 与刻板印象不同，适当的运动不会加重关节磨损，反而能够维持骨骼强度、强健关节周围肌肉，甚至一部分关节疼痛和僵硬，都与缺乏运动有关。 不仅如此，通过运动每减重一磅，能够减少膝关节压力4磅 ...

Group 1: Organizational Structure and Strategy - The company has made a series of adjustments to its organizational structure over the past two years, establishing a brand division that manages the entire cycle from product development to market promotion and sales [2] - Future organizational optimizations will focus more on business empowerment, with no major changes expected overall [2] Group 2: Online and Offline Development Strategies - Online, Douyin is the largest platform for VDS industry sales, maintaining rapid growth, while Tmall and JD.com together account for approximately 60% of the market share [2][3] - The company plans to optimize operational strategies and enhance social media penetration, focusing on consumer needs across different channels to drive product iteration and brand asset optimization [2] - Offline, the company aims to strengthen product capabilities through digital infrastructure in pharmacies and new commercial delivery models, enhancing operational and service capabilities [2] Group 3: Revenue Structure and Market Insights - Currently, Douyin accounts for about 20% of online channel revenue, while Tmall and JD.com together account for approximately 60% [3] - The cross-border market constitutes about 70% of the company's revenue, with the domestic market making up the remaining 30% [3] - The company will focus on product research and innovation to meet the increasingly diverse consumer demands, particularly in the top ten stable product categories [3] Group 4: Sales Expenses and Market Growth - Sales expenses are categorized into two types: A-class expenses for brand building across all channels and B-class expenses for sales conversion support, with a short-term decrease in sales expense ratio being challenging [3] - The industry still has growth potential in China due to increasing penetration rates and the expansion of new consumer groups [3] Group 5: Brand Matrix and Positioning - The company adheres to a multi-brand, full-category strategy, with the main brand "汤臣倍健" targeting the entire population [3] - The brands "健力多" and "lifespace" have shown good development, each accounting for over 10% of the company's revenue [3]

Core Insights - The company reported a significant improvement in its financial performance for Q3 2025, with a notable increase in both revenue and net profit compared to the previous quarters [1][2] - The overall revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 decreased by 14.27% year-on-year, but Q3 alone showed a 23.45% increase, indicating a recovery trend [1][2] Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 4.915 billion yuan, with a net profit of 907 million yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 827 million yuan [1] - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.383 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.45%, and a net profit of 171 million yuan, reflecting a substantial year-on-year increase of 861.91% [1] - The gross margin and net margin for Q3 2025 were 68.56% and 13.07%, respectively, showing improvements of 3.25 percentage points and 14.68 percentage points year-on-year [2] Brand Performance - The main brand,汤臣倍健, generated revenue of 2.676 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, down 16% year-on-year, while健力多 saw a revenue of 574 million yuan, down 18% year-on-year [1] - The overseas brand LSG achieved revenue of 720 million yuan, marking a 14% year-on-year increase [1] Operational Efficiency - The company has been actively enhancing its operational efficiency both online and offline, leading to quality growth across various channels [2] - The expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial costs in Q3 2025 were 43.98%, 10.54%, 1.80%, and -0.32%, respectively, with significant reductions in sales and management expense ratios [2] Future Outlook - The company aims to adopt a "re-entrepreneurial" mindset in 2026, focusing on product innovation and global market expansion [2] - Projections indicate that the company could achieve net profits of 784 million yuan, 889 million yuan, and 999 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20%, 13%, and 12% [2]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.92 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 14.3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 910 million yuan, an increase of 4.5% [1] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.5%, and a net profit of 170 million yuan, a significant increase of 861.9% [1] - The company expects continued high revenue growth in Q4 2025, driven by new product launches and improved operational efficiency [2] Revenue Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 4.92 billion yuan, down 14.3% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 910 million yuan, up 4.5% [1] - In Q3 2025, the revenue was 1.38 billion yuan, reflecting a 23.5% year-on-year increase, with the net profit reaching 170 million yuan, marking an 861.9% increase [1] - The revenue breakdown for Q3 2025 showed online and offline channels generating 700 million yuan and 670 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 11.2% and 39.4% [1] Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin improved by 3.2 percentage points to 68.6% in Q3 2025, attributed to high-quality development and changes in product structure [2] - The company reduced its sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios, leading to a net profit margin increase of 14.7 percentage points to 13.1% [2] - The company is focusing on product innovation and enhancing user asset management to drive sales conversion and revenue growth in the upcoming quarters [2] Future Outlook - The company anticipates maintaining high revenue growth in Q4 2025, supported by a low base and ongoing product innovation [2] - In 2026, the company plans to adopt a "re-entrepreneurship" mindset, focusing on product innovation and global market expansion [2] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been slightly adjusted, with expected net profits of 790 million yuan, 920 million yuan, and 1.03 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 20.4%, 16.9%, and 11.7% respectively [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Neutral" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.915 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 14.27%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 907 million yuan, an increase of 4.45% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 1.383 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.45%, and a net profit of 171 million yuan, compared to a loss of 22 million yuan in the same period last year [1] - The company has successfully turned a profit in Q3 due to improved gross margin and optimized expense ratios, with a gross margin of 68.56%, up 3.25 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The company is expected to continue its revenue growth into Q4, aiming for a single-digit decline in revenue for the year [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of new product launches and channel management for future growth [5] Financial Summary - For 2024A, total revenue is projected at 6.838 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -27.3% [1] - The net profit for 2024A is estimated at 653 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -62.6% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024A is projected to be 0.39 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 33 [1] - The company’s total assets are expected to be 14.28 billion yuan in 2024A, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 15.7% [11]

Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for Q3 2025, with revenue reaching 1.383 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 23.45%, and net profit of 170 million yuan, marking a remarkable year-on-year increase of 861.91% [2] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 4.915 billion yuan and a net profit of 907 million yuan, indicating a recovery in profitability and operational capability [2] - The company has shown consistent improvement in its financial metrics, with both revenue and profit increasing year-on-year [2] Product Innovation and Strategy - The company has focused on product innovation as a key strategy, launching 71 new products in the first three quarters of 2025 [2] - The product strategy includes a dual approach of upgrading basic nutrients and breaking into specialized functional categories, which strengthens its presence in the mass consumer market while also targeting professional sectors [2][3] Market Demand and Consumer Engagement - The company has effectively driven category growth in the basic nutrient sector by promoting high cost-performance products, which has broadened its customer base [3] - New products such as the adult calcium series with high vitamin K2 content have led to a 48% growth in the liquid calcium category on e-commerce platforms [3] Channel Strategy - The company has implemented a differentiated inventory strategy to optimize the value chain across online and offline channels, with positive results beginning to show [4] - In offline channels, the company has improved its market share in the protein powder category by 3.3 percentage points year-on-year, driven by products like calcium vitamin E protein powder [4] Research and Development - The company has made significant advancements in R&D, holding 487 patents and numerous certifications for health food products, positioning itself at the forefront of the industry [5] - The company has also established partnerships for scientific exploration, enhancing its brand image and credibility in the market [5] Future Outlook - Following a period of adjustment, the company is expected to stabilize and recover, laying a solid foundation for long-term growth as new products continue to be released and operational efficiency improves [6]

Core Viewpoint - The health supplement market in China is experiencing significant challenges, as evidenced by the poor performance of leading companies like汤臣倍健, which has seen substantial declines in revenue and profit, indicating a shift in consumer behavior and market dynamics [2][4][6]. Company Performance -汤臣倍健 reported a revenue of 35.32 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 23.43%, with a net profit of 7.37 billion yuan, down 17.34% [2]. - For the entire year of 2024,汤臣倍健's revenue was 68.38 billion yuan, a decline of 27.3%, and net profit fell by 62.62% to 6.53 billion yuan, marking the largest drop since its listing [5][6]. - The company's market capitalization has decreased from a peak of 600 billion yuan to approximately 209 billion yuan, resulting in a loss of nearly 400 billion yuan in value [6]. Market Dynamics - The health supplement industry is not in decline; rather, it is evolving, with younger consumers adopting "punk health" trends, leading to a shift in purchasing behavior [3][9]. - The market for health supplements grew to 604.1 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 16.2% increase, with specific categories like bone health and oral beauty products driving growth [19]. Brand Strategy and Challenges -汤臣倍健's traditional branding and marketing strategies are becoming outdated, as the company struggles to connect with younger consumers [7][11]. - The company has seen a significant reduction in its domestic distributor network, with 597 distributors remaining as of June 2025, down over 340 from the end of 2023 [7]. - Despite launching new products,汤臣倍健 has failed to establish a strong online presence or effectively market to younger demographics, resulting in stagnant sales for its core products [8][11]. Competitive Landscape - Newer brands like诺特兰德, Swisse, and万益蓝 are successfully targeting younger consumers with innovative marketing strategies and product offerings, capturing significant market share [10][11]. - These brands leverage social media and influencer marketing to resonate with younger audiences, contrasting with汤臣倍健's more traditional approach [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The company experienced a decline in revenue in the first half of 2025, but showed signs of recovery in the second quarter, with a significant increase in net profit compared to the previous year [1][2][10] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.4%, and a net profit of 740 million yuan, down 17.3% [1] - In the second quarter of 2025, revenue was 1.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 11.5%, while net profit rose to 280 million yuan, an increase of 71.4% [1] Revenue Breakdown - For the first half of 2025, domestic and overseas revenues were 2.84 billion yuan and 690 million yuan, respectively, representing a year-on-year decline of 28.2% and an increase of 5.3% [3] - Major brands in the domestic market, including汤臣倍健,健力多, and Life-Space, reported revenues of 1.89 billion yuan, 410 million yuan, and 140 million yuan, with declines of 28.3%, 30.4%, and 34.4% respectively [3][4] Channel Performance - In the first half of 2025, offline and online channels generated revenues of 1.80 billion yuan and 1.68 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year declines of 31.6% and 13.8% [4] - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenues from offline and online channels at 810 million yuan and 920 million yuan, with declines of 10.7% and 12.1% respectively [7] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 68.6%, unchanged from the previous year, while the net margin improved to 21.6%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points [8] - In the second quarter of 2025, the gross margin was 68.4%, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin rose to 17.1%, an increase of 8.9 percentage points [8] Future Outlook - The company plans to launch new products in the second and third quarters of 2025 and will strategically allocate marketing resources to enhance offline distribution [9] - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 6.29 billion yuan, 6.64 billion yuan, and 7.01 billion yuan, with net profits expected to be 800 million yuan, 930 million yuan, and 1.06 billion yuan respectively [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 3.532 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year decline of 23.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 737 million yuan, down 17.3%. In Q2 2025, revenue was 1.741 billion yuan, a decline of 11.5%, but net profit increased by 71.4% to 282 million yuan, aligning with market expectations [7] - Due to the ongoing external consumption environment and unstable market competition, the profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards, with new forecasts for 2027 introduced. The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 707 million, 813 million, and 934 million yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 8.3%, 15.0%, and 14.9% [7] - The company is focusing on high-quality operations and actively reforming online and offline channels to adapt to external changes. Long-term growth is expected as the population's age structure improves and public health awareness increases [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2025 are set at 6.179 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 9.6%. The gross profit margin is expected to be 67.3% [6] - The company achieved a gross profit margin of 68.4% in Q2 2025, an increase of 1.68 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to improved product structure from high-value new products [7] - The net profit margin for Q2 2025 reached 17.1%, up 8.86 percentage points year-on-year, driven by effective cost control [7] Revenue Breakdown - The main brand and "Jianli Duo" benefited from effective operational adjustments, with Q2 revenue for the main brand at 905 million yuan, down 17.0% year-on-year, and "Jianli Duo" at 210 million yuan, down 3.67% [7] - Online channel revenue was 918 million yuan, a decline of 12.07%, while offline channel revenue was 810 million yuan, down 10.69% [7] Price Performance Catalyst - Key catalysts for stock price performance include better-than-expected growth in major products and accelerated online channel development [7]