股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.06.17 2025-06-17 2025Q1 业绩超预期，Agent 业务高歌猛进带动公司进 入高速增长轨道 第四范式(6682) [Table_Industry] 计算机 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 证 券 研 股 票 研 究 究 报 告 [Table_CurPrice] 当前价格(港元)： 45.80 [Table_Market] 交易数据 52 周内股价区间（港元） 20.05-62.55 本报告导读： 宏观承压下，公司 25Q1 营收增速实现逆势高速增长，Agent 对公司业务加持已经凸 显，全年转盈趋势确定的背景下，公司在 2B+2C 双轮驱动下长期增长可期。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要 （百万人民币） | 2022A | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 3,087.63 | 4,206.95 | 5,260.65 | 6,883.82 | 8,862. ...

Core Insights - Fourth Paradigm (06682.HK) reported a total revenue of 1.077 billion yuan for Q1 of FY2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 30.1% [2] - The company's gross profit reached 444 million yuan, also reflecting a 30.1% year-on-year growth, with a gross margin of 41.2% [2] - Following the positive earnings report, the stock opened 4% higher and surged over 8% during trading on May 16, reaching 42.9 HKD per share and a market capitalization of 21.1 billion HKD [2] Business Segment Performance - The "Prophet AI Platform," which constitutes 74.8% of total revenue, generated 805 million yuan in Q1, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 60.5% [5] - The SHIFT intelligent solutions segment reported revenue of 212 million yuan, down 14.9% year-on-year, with its revenue share decreasing to 19.7% due to strategic business expansion [5] - The AIGS service segment contributed 60 million yuan, accounting for 5.6% of total revenue [5] R&D and Future Plans - R&D expenses for Q1 amounted to 368 million yuan, an increase of 5.7% year-on-year, with an R&D expense ratio of 34.2%, down 8 percentage points [5] - The company plans to establish Paradigm Group, with the original Fourth Paradigm business becoming a core subsidiary, while also entering new sectors like consumer electronics [6] - The focus remains on enhancing AI capabilities across various industries, with a commitment to not pivoting away from enterprise services [6][7] Market Position and Profitability Outlook - Fourth Paradigm's overall R&D and revenue scale is smaller compared to peers like SenseTime, but it has a larger profit margin potential [7] - Based on current trends, the company is projected to achieve breakeven or positive net profit for FY2025, potentially becoming the third domestic AI software company to report profitability [7] - The vision is to leverage accumulated experience in vertical world models to expand AI capabilities beyond enterprise software, aiming for a broader market reach [8]

Core Viewpoints - The company's core business drives high-quality revenue growth, achieving revenue of RMB 5.261 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 25.1%, with the "Prophet AI Platform" contributing RMB 3.676 billion, a significant growth of 46.7%, accounting for 69.9% of total revenue. Meanwhile, the net profit attributable to the parent company narrowed its loss to RMB -269 million, a substantial reduction of 70.4% [1][2] - The company has a high customer stickiness among industry-leading clients, with the number of benchmark clients increasing by 16% to 161, an average revenue contribution of RMB 19.1 million, and a net retention rate (NDER) of 110%. The company has launched an AI Agent collaborative operation solution in partnership with Zhiyuan Interconnect, integrating the AI Prophet platform with the AICOP platform [1][2] - The company upgraded its group structure and launched the "Phancy" brand to provide C-end AI capabilities in addition to its B-end business. The ModelHub AIoT solution supports the deployment of large models on local devices, offering low-latency and high-privacy edge AI services, collaborating with brands like Lenovo to enhance the deployment of Agents on the edge [1][2] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a total revenue of RMB 5.261 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.1%, with a gross profit of RMB 2.245 billion and a gross margin of 42.7%. The net profit attributable to the parent company improved to RMB -269 million, a significant reduction of 70.4% [1][2] - The core business revenue and profit both grew rapidly, with the "Prophet AI Platform" achieving revenue of RMB 3.676 billion, a year-on-year increase of 46.7%, and accounting for 69.9% of total revenue. The company's R&D investment reached RMB 2.170 billion, with an R&D expense ratio of 41.2% [1][2] Business Segments - The core business structure remains coordinated across three major segments: the Prophet AI Platform, SHIFT Intelligent Solutions, and Shisuo AIGS Services. In 2024, the Prophet AI Platform generated revenue of RMB 3.676 billion, a year-on-year increase of 46.7%, while SHIFT Intelligent Solutions revenue decreased by 20.3% to RMB 1.022 billion due to resource focus on the AI platform strategy [2][3] - The SHIFT Intelligent Solutions provide intelligent solutions for various industries, further deepening industry applications and accelerating digital transformation. The Shisuo AIGS Services empower software development through generative AI technology, enhancing user experience and product capabilities [3][4] Customer Base and Market Position - The number of benchmark users reached 161 in 2024, a 16% increase year-on-year, with an average revenue contribution of RMB 19.1 million. The customer concentration risk has been effectively mitigated, with the largest single customer revenue share decreasing from 12.7% in 2023 to 10.6% in 2024 [4][5] - The company has helped over 10 industries develop and deploy enterprise-level AI Agents, with practical experience in various verticals such as financial credit risk control and water and electricity equipment operation [4][5] Strategic Developments - The company completed a group structure upgrade and officially rebranded as "Paradigm Group," with its enterprise-level AI business becoming the core B-end brand. The launch of the Phancy brand focuses on "AI Agent + World Model" technology, providing edge AI capabilities to both consumer and industrial sectors [5][6] - The ModelHub AIoT solution supports local deployment of distilled models, achieving low-latency and high-privacy edge AI services, and has collaborated with brands like Acer and Lenovo to upgrade traditional devices into AI terminals [5][6] Profit Forecast - As a leader in enterprise-level AI, the company has seen continuous revenue growth and narrowing net losses, with a clearer profit model. The number of benchmark clients and revenue are steadily increasing, with projections for 2025-2027 revenues of RMB 6.663 billion, RMB 8.347 billion, and RMB 10.413 billion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 26.66%, 25.26%, and 24.77% respectively [5][6]

Core Insights - Fourth Paradigm (06682.HK) reported a total revenue of RMB 1.077 billion for Q1 FY2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 30.1% [2] - The gross profit reached RMB 444 million, also reflecting a 30.1% increase, with a gross margin of 41.2% [2] - The core business, the Prophet AI platform, generated revenue of RMB 805 million, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 60.5% [2] Business Expansion - The Prophet platform underwent a major upgrade, introducing an AI Agent full-process development platform, allowing enterprise clients to integrate over 150 mainstream large models [3] - The platform includes a comprehensive suite of AI applications covering various enterprise scenarios such as AIGC, intelligent office, digital employees, and more [3] - The AI Agent has been implemented in over 14 industries, including finance, aviation, automotive, healthcare, and retail [3] Revenue Breakdown - The SHIFT intelligent solutions business generated RMB 212 million, accounting for 19.7% of total revenue, despite a year-on-year decline of 14.9% [4] - The AIGS service revenue was RMB 60 million, representing 5.6% of total revenue, with enhancements in programming Agent capabilities [4] Strategic Focus - The company is focusing on enhancing the core capabilities of the Prophet AI platform and the deployment of enterprise-level Agents, leading to a strategic resource reallocation [4] - The company has established a dual-core business structure, maintaining its enterprise services while launching a consumer electronics segment, Phancy, which focuses on integrated AI Agent solutions [6] - Phancy has released several user-level Agent solutions aimed at improving daily work efficiency for enterprise users [6]

第四范式正致力于以「Agent + 世界模型」的技术理念去赋能更多的产业。 本文为IPO早知道原创 作者｜ Stone Jin 微信公众号｜ipozaozhidao 据 IPO早知道消息， 第四范式（ 06682.HK） 于 5月15日发布 了 截至 2025年3月31日 的 2025财年第一季度核心业务进展报告。 报告显示， 第四范式第一季度总收入 10.77亿元 （人民币，下同） ，同比增长 30.1% ；毛利润 4.44亿元，同比增长30.1%，毛利率 则 为 41.2%。 第一季度， 第四范式标杆客户数为 59个，标杆客户平均收入为1167万元，同比增长31.3%。 具体来讲， 作为第四范式所有业务的内核，先知 AI平台 第一季度 营收 8.05亿元，同比增长 60.5% 。 第一季度 ，第四范式先知平台迎来全新升级，基于原有 AI模型开发工具链，进一步推出AI Agent全 流程开发平台。企业客户可通过先知平台上内置的大模型应用平台Model Hub，轻松集成150+主流 大模型，并利用内置的数十个Agent智能体框架，构建完整LLM Ops体系，覆盖AI Agent开发全生 命周期。先知AI平台配 ...

盈利目标清晰。 本文为IPO早知道原创 作者｜ Stone Jin 微信公众号｜ipozaozhidao 据 IPO早知道消息， 第四范式（ 06682.HK） 于 3月3 1 日 公布了 2024年度 业绩报告。 财报显示， 2 024 年第四范式 全年总收入 52.61亿元，同比增长25.1%；毛利润 22.45亿元，毛利 率为42.7% 。 值得一提的是， 2 024 年 全年 第四范式 归属母公司所有者的年度亏损较 2023年全年减亏6.40亿 元，同比 收窄 70.4% ，这也是第四范式自 2021年以来连续4 个 会计年度环比减亏 。 在 盈利目标 日渐 清晰 的同时，第四范式 2 024 年的研发投入为 21.70亿元，研发费用率41.2% ， 继续巩固自己的技术领先性。 2 024 年，第四范式 服务的标杆用户数为 161个，同比增长16%，标杆客户平均营收为 1 910万 元 ， 2024 年标杆用户的NDER（净收入增长率）为110%。 核心业务收入增长 46.7% " 生成式 AI+决策AI"双轮驱动 从业务构成来看， 2 024 年第四范式的核心业务 「先知 AI平台」营收 3 6.7 ...