Core Viewpoint - Wedbush identifies Microsoft, Palantir, Apple, Tesla, and CrowdStrike as the top five companies to invest in the AI sector by 2026, alongside Nvidia [1] Group 1: Microsoft - Analysts led by Dan Ives believe Wall Street has underestimated Azure's growth potential and the AI-driven transformation expected by 2026, making Microsoft a favored large-cap tech stock for the coming year [3] - The fiscal year 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for Microsoft's AI growth as CIOs schedule deployment projects [3] Group 2: Palantir - Wedbush sees Palantir, under CEO Alex Karp, continuing to make significant progress in government and commercial sectors, with potential to reach a market valuation of $1 trillion [3] Group 3: CrowdStrike - CrowdStrike is expected to benefit from AI as its product suite expands in the enterprise market, with analysts believing Wall Street has underestimated its growth potential [4] Group 4: Tesla - Wedbush forecasts Tesla's market value could reach $2 trillion in the coming months, and potentially $3 trillion by the end of 2026 in a bullish scenario due to advancements in autonomous vehicles and robotics [4] - The process of transitioning to AI-driven valuation for Tesla is believed to have already begun, with full self-driving and autonomous driving penetration among existing users seen as key growth drivers [4] Group 5: Apple - Apple is expected to leverage its vast consumer base of over 2.4 billion iOS devices and 1.5 billion iPhones to profit from AI, with potential to increase its stock value by $75 to $100 per share in the coming years [5] - Tim Cook is anticipated to remain CEO until at least the end of 2027 to guide Apple through a critical AI technology transformation [5]

至于Palantir，Wedbush认为，随着这家由亚历克斯.卡普领导的软件公司在政府和商业客户领域持续取 得令人瞩目的进展，该公司仍有望发展成为一家市值达1万亿美元的公司。 与此同时，由于CrowdStrike的产品套件在未来一年将继续在企业级市场扩张，该公司预计将从AI中受 益。 投行Wedbush称，除英伟达(NVDA.US)外，微软(MSFT.US)、Palantir(PLTR.US)、苹果(AAPL.US)、特斯 拉(TSLA.US)和CrowdStrike(CRWD.US)位列2026年人工智能领域最值得投资的前五大公司。 由丹.艾夫斯领导分析师团队表示，"在我们看来，华尔街低估了Azure的增长前景，以及雷德蒙德(微软 总部所在地)进入2026年之际即将发生的由AI驱动的转型。这使得微软成为我们未来一年最青睐的大盘 科技股之一，""虽然AI应用案例在2025财年显著增加，但显然，随着首席信息官(CIO)们纷纷为部署项 目排期，2026财年对于微软来说才是AI增长真正的拐点之年。" 在特斯拉方面，Wedbush预计其市值将在未来几个月达到2万亿美元；在牛市情境下，由于自动驾驶汽 车和机器人的兴起， ...

Core Insights - The market has focused on Elon Musk's high compensation, but Morgan Stanley emphasizes that the strategic points from Tesla's shareholder meeting are being overlooked [1] - Key signals that will profoundly impact Tesla's stock price in the next 6-12 months include the relationship with xAI, advancements in Full Self-Driving (FSD), vertical integration of chips, distributed inference cloud networks, space AI satellites, and revolutionary production methods for Cybercab [1] Group 1: Tesla and xAI Relationship - The relationship between Tesla and xAI is crucial for Tesla's long-term success, with both companies forming a recursive loop in data, hardware, and manufacturing [4] - Tesla may build a "gigantic chip factory" to support its ambitious plans for billions of robots, ensuring supply and innovation in reasoning chips [4] - The market has underestimated the significance of Musk's confidence in FSD V14.3, which will allow texting while driving [4] Group 2: Technological Breakthroughs - Transitioning driving responsibility from humans to pure visual algorithms represents a historic technological breakthrough in transportation [5] - Musk proposed a "massive" distributed inference cloud, offering $100 or $200 monthly to car owners for AI processing when their vehicles are idle, potentially creating an unprecedented edge computing network [5] Group 3: Future Innovations - The report highlights two future-oriented concepts: solar AI satellites and the production target for Cybercab [6] - The collaboration between Tesla and SpaceX in space computing is underscored by the potential of solar AI satellites, which could address human demands for computing and power [6] - Tesla aims for a production rate of "one vehicle every 10 seconds" for Cybercab, significantly faster than traditional automotive manufacturing, indicating a major leap in mass production methods [6]

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's stock price has risen over 35% since March, driven by optimistic expectations regarding robotaxi, AI advancements, and new product news, despite recent performance not showing significant improvement [1] Group 1: Current Focus of Tesla - Tesla maintains a market capitalization above $1 trillion, leveraging its strong brand, large operational fleet, and vertically integrated business model [2] - The management is currently focused on the rollout of robotaxi services, with a pilot program launched in Austin, and is reallocating engineers to full self-driving (FSD) and AI projects [2] - The company is also pushing for growth in its energy business, although its profits still heavily rely on automotive sales, which face pricing pressures and intense competition [2] Group 2: Current Electric Vehicle Market Landscape - The global electric vehicle market is entering a challenging phase, with growth slowing in regions like the US and Europe, and increased competition from companies like BYD and VinFast [3] - Regulatory scrutiny is intensifying due to incidents involving Autopilot, adding to industry challenges [3] - Tesla's competitive edge lies in its software development and data accumulation, but regulatory hurdles may impede progress [3] Group 3: Key Financial Data - In Q2, Tesla reported revenue of $22.5 billion, a 12% year-over-year decline, with automotive revenue dropping from $18.5 billion to $15.8 billion [4] - The gross margin was 17.2%, down from 18% year-over-year, and net profit was $1.2 billion, down from $1.4 billion in the same period last year [4] - The company has a strong balance sheet with $36.8 billion in cash and short-term investments against $13.1 billion in debt [4] Group 4: Market Valuation Logic - Tesla's valuation appears excessive, with a forward P/E ratio exceeding 200, and even with projected EPS of $3.25 by 2027, the P/E ratio remains above 100 [5] - Such valuation levels are only justified if Tesla achieves significant breakthroughs in robotaxi or AI software profitability [5] - If Tesla's valuation aligns with peers, the stock price could face a decline of 55%-75% [6] Group 5: Recent Key Developments - Recent news includes mixed signals: positive developments such as obtaining robotaxi licenses in Texas and ongoing energy and AI collaborations, alongside negative news like securities fraud lawsuits and investigations by NHTSA [7] - Investor sentiment is divided, with retail investors remaining enthusiastic while most institutions adopt a cautious stance, reflected in earnings forecast adjustments [7] Group 6: Future Outlook - Short-term revenue growth is expected to be weak, with profit margins under pressure; consensus predicts 2025 revenue of $92.7 billion, with potential recovery in subsequent years [10] - The core challenge lies in whether Tesla can enhance profitability while growing, with market expectations for significant contributions from robotaxi and AI being overly optimistic [10] - The performance will depend on three factors: preventing further margin declines, transforming the energy business into a profit engine, and managing costs without relying on new government subsidies [10] Group 7: Scenario Assumptions - Pessimistic scenario: Delays in robotaxi deployment and profit margin pressure lead to stagnant EPS around $2, with valuation dropping to a 100 P/E ratio [11] - Neutral scenario: Continued growth in energy and service sectors stabilizes automotive business, achieving EPS of $3.25 by 2027 with a P/E ratio above 90 [11] - Optimistic scenario: Successful commercialization of robotaxi by 2027 results in EPS exceeding $7, with investors assigning a 60-70 P/E ratio [11] Group 8: Final Conclusion - Tesla remains an attractive company, but its stock price trajectory is difficult to predict due to high valuations driven by expectations of breakthroughs in robotaxi and AI [13] - Current data shows declining automotive sales, weak margins, and moderate profit growth, challenging the sustainability of its $1 trillion market cap [13] - A neutral rating is maintained, suggesting long-term holding for existing investors while cautioning against new investments at current price levels due to unfavorable risk-reward ratios [13]

智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发表研报，维持特斯拉(TSLA.US)"增持"评级，目标价为410美元。报告 指出，近日有报道称特斯拉已经解散了自研Dojo超算团队，作为优化人工智能(AI)计划成本效益的重要 举措。该行认为，这一战略转向或将深化特斯拉与马斯克旗下xAI公司的协同合作，相关资本支出和研 发资源有望重新配置，重点突破机器人生产成本优化与制造工艺提升。 特斯拉此次缩减支出时机的选择也耐人寻味。马斯克曾多次提及的GPU短缺困境已大幅缓解，这消除了 过去迫使特斯拉急于开发Dojo等自研算力资源的关键制约因素。 据报道称，特斯拉正在解散其Dojo超级计算机团队，团队负责人Peter Bannon将离职，不过特斯拉尚未 证实或置评这一消息。据悉，Dojo超级计算机旨在处理特斯拉汽车产生的大量数据和视频，用于训练全 自动驾驶(FSD)和Optimus的机器学习模型。知情人士透露，马斯克已下令终止该项目，公司计划增加与 英伟达(NVDA.US)、AMD(AMD.US)等外部技术合作伙伴的合作，在计算领域寻求支持，同时与三星电 子(SSNLF.US)合作芯片制造。此外，Dojo团队近期约有20名员工离职并加入新成 ...