Core Viewpoint - Tesla's stock price has risen over 35% since March, driven by optimistic expectations regarding robotaxi, AI advancements, and new product news, despite recent performance not showing significant improvement [1] Group 1: Current Focus of Tesla - Tesla maintains a market capitalization above $1 trillion, leveraging its strong brand, large operational fleet, and vertically integrated business model [2] - The management is currently focused on the rollout of robotaxi services, with a pilot program launched in Austin, and is reallocating engineers to full self-driving (FSD) and AI projects [2] - The company is also pushing for growth in its energy business, although its profits still heavily rely on automotive sales, which face pricing pressures and intense competition [2] Group 2: Current Electric Vehicle Market Landscape - The global electric vehicle market is entering a challenging phase, with growth slowing in regions like the US and Europe, and increased competition from companies like BYD and VinFast [3] - Regulatory scrutiny is intensifying due to incidents involving Autopilot, adding to industry challenges [3] - Tesla's competitive edge lies in its software development and data accumulation, but regulatory hurdles may impede progress [3] Group 3: Key Financial Data - In Q2, Tesla reported revenue of $22.5 billion, a 12% year-over-year decline, with automotive revenue dropping from $18.5 billion to $15.8 billion [4] - The gross margin was 17.2%, down from 18% year-over-year, and net profit was $1.2 billion, down from $1.4 billion in the same period last year [4] - The company has a strong balance sheet with $36.8 billion in cash and short-term investments against $13.1 billion in debt [4] Group 4: Market Valuation Logic - Tesla's valuation appears excessive, with a forward P/E ratio exceeding 200, and even with projected EPS of $3.25 by 2027, the P/E ratio remains above 100 [5] - Such valuation levels are only justified if Tesla achieves significant breakthroughs in robotaxi or AI software profitability [5] - If Tesla's valuation aligns with peers, the stock price could face a decline of 55%-75% [6] Group 5: Recent Key Developments - Recent news includes mixed signals: positive developments such as obtaining robotaxi licenses in Texas and ongoing energy and AI collaborations, alongside negative news like securities fraud lawsuits and investigations by NHTSA [7] - Investor sentiment is divided, with retail investors remaining enthusiastic while most institutions adopt a cautious stance, reflected in earnings forecast adjustments [7] Group 6: Future Outlook - Short-term revenue growth is expected to be weak, with profit margins under pressure; consensus predicts 2025 revenue of $92.7 billion, with potential recovery in subsequent years [10] - The core challenge lies in whether Tesla can enhance profitability while growing, with market expectations for significant contributions from robotaxi and AI being overly optimistic [10] - The performance will depend on three factors: preventing further margin declines, transforming the energy business into a profit engine, and managing costs without relying on new government subsidies [10] Group 7: Scenario Assumptions - Pessimistic scenario: Delays in robotaxi deployment and profit margin pressure lead to stagnant EPS around $2, with valuation dropping to a 100 P/E ratio [11] - Neutral scenario: Continued growth in energy and service sectors stabilizes automotive business, achieving EPS of $3.25 by 2027 with a P/E ratio above 90 [11] - Optimistic scenario: Successful commercialization of robotaxi by 2027 results in EPS exceeding $7, with investors assigning a 60-70 P/E ratio [11] Group 8: Final Conclusion - Tesla remains an attractive company, but its stock price trajectory is difficult to predict due to high valuations driven by expectations of breakthroughs in robotaxi and AI [13] - Current data shows declining automotive sales, weak margins, and moderate profit growth, challenging the sustainability of its $1 trillion market cap [13] - A neutral rating is maintained, suggesting long-term holding for existing investors while cautioning against new investments at current price levels due to unfavorable risk-reward ratios [13]

智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发表研报，维持特斯拉(TSLA.US)"增持"评级，目标价为410美元。报告 指出，近日有报道称特斯拉已经解散了自研Dojo超算团队，作为优化人工智能(AI)计划成本效益的重要 举措。该行认为，这一战略转向或将深化特斯拉与马斯克旗下xAI公司的协同合作，相关资本支出和研 发资源有望重新配置，重点突破机器人生产成本优化与制造工艺提升。 特斯拉此次缩减支出时机的选择也耐人寻味。马斯克曾多次提及的GPU短缺困境已大幅缓解，这消除了 过去迫使特斯拉急于开发Dojo等自研算力资源的关键制约因素。 据报道称，特斯拉正在解散其Dojo超级计算机团队，团队负责人Peter Bannon将离职，不过特斯拉尚未 证实或置评这一消息。据悉，Dojo超级计算机旨在处理特斯拉汽车产生的大量数据和视频，用于训练全 自动驾驶(FSD)和Optimus的机器学习模型。知情人士透露，马斯克已下令终止该项目，公司计划增加与 英伟达(NVDA.US)、AMD(AMD.US)等外部技术合作伙伴的合作，在计算领域寻求支持，同时与三星电 子(SSNLF.US)合作芯片制造。此外，Dojo团队近期约有20名员工离职并加入新成 ...