肥胖症是一种慢性健康状况，当人体进食热量多于消耗热量时，多余热量以脂肪形式储存于体内，其量超过正常生理需要量，且达一定值时遂演变为肥胖 症。减肥药，是具有减肥瘦身作用的药品。从安全性角度来看，减肥药易产生胃肠道不适。在中国，超重及肥胖症的管理主要包括全面的生活方式干预、药 物治疗，在严重情况下还包括手术治疗。 近年来，随着我国经济的快速发展和生活方式的改变，肥胖患者人数不断攀升，2023年，中国肥胖症患者人数约为2.7亿人。肥胖不仅影响美观，还可能引 发多种慢性疾病，对人们的身体健康构成严重威胁。因此，减肥药作为一种潜在的解决方案，市场需求日益增长。 当前，中国肥胖药物治疗较为保守，可选择的药物很少，治疗仍显保守，伴随着我国肥胖率的上升和大众对身材管理需求的增加，减肥药作为一种潜在的解 决方案，吸引了众多消费者和医疗专业人士的兴趣，多家企业正加码布局减肥药市场，市场发展潜力巨大。2023年，中国减肥药市场规模约为21亿元。 本文节选自华经产业研究院发布的《2024年全球及中国减肥药行业现状及趋势（附市场规模、肥胖症患者数及重点企业）「图」》，如需获取全文内容，可 进入华经情报网搜索查看。 华东医药股份有限公司 ...

兄弟们，最近A股市场有点不平静啊。华银电力突然宣布上半年净利润暴增4423%，直接把股价拉了个76%的月涨幅，连带着整个预增板块都跟着火了一 把。这可不是个例，截至7月10号，已经有487家公司发了中报预告，其中126家预增超过100%，连天赐材料这种龙头都单月涨了45%。作为在财经圈混了20 年的老江湖，今天咱们就来聊聊这波预增行情，到底该怎么抓住机会，又该避开哪些坑。 今年预增股主要扎堆在三个方向：电子行业受益于AI爆发，工业富联的AI服务器营收涨了60%，芯动联科的MEMS传感器在军工订单里卖爆了；化工行业因 为产品涨价，先达股份的除草剂烯草酮涨到16万一吨，直接让利润翻了28倍；医药生物则是多肽药物需求激增，翰宇药业的利拉鲁肽注射液拿到FDA认证， 净利润暴增16倍。这三个方向既有政策支持，又有实实在在的业绩，是中长线布局的好选择。 风险提示：别被表面数据忽悠了 这里得给兄弟们提个醒，不是所有预增股都能买。比如渝开发虽然预增784%，但主要是靠卖子公司股权赚了2.4亿，扣非净利润可能还不如主业稳定的公 司。另外，像华银电力这种靠短期电力需求激增的公司，一旦天气转凉或者产能过剩，业绩可能马上变脸。还有些 ...

整理 | GLP1减重宝典内容团队 中国目前是全球肥胖和超重人数最多的国家。根据2021年发表在《柳叶刀-糖尿病与内分泌学》上的研究数据，中国超过一半的成年人口超重或 肥胖，其中16.4%为肥胖，34.3%为超重，总人数高达约5.32亿，肥胖人数接近1亿。另一项2020年的研究预测，到2030年，中国成年超重人数 将达到5.4亿，肥胖人数将增至1.5亿，与2000年相比分别增长了2.8倍和7.5倍。 预计到2035年，全球约有四分之一的人口将被归为肥胖人群，而这一比例在2020年仅为14%。肥胖问题不仅影响个人的身心健康，还对全球经 济造成深远影响。据估计，这种影响相当于美国国内生产总值的3.6%，生产力损失带来的间接成本可能高达1.24万亿美元。 司美格鲁肽等GLP-1类药物的出现，彻底改变了减肥市场。然而，在司美格鲁肽热销的同时，也有大批的人在使用一段时间后放弃继续用药。 点击关注，追踪最新GLP-1资讯 ▍有多少人停药？ 美国克利夫兰医学中心的研究者在《Obesity》期刊上发表的调查报告显示，司美格鲁肽在减肥药物中的依从性最高，这表明其副作用相对较 小。研究包括了司美格鲁肽、利拉鲁肽、芬特明-托吡酯、 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tonghua Dongbao Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. has faced significant financial adjustments due to legal disputes and changes in market conditions, leading to a substantial revision of its expected net profit for 2024 from a profit of 40.53 million yuan to a loss of 42.72 million yuan [1][2][3]. Financial Adjustments - The company initially estimated a net profit of 40.53 million yuan, which was later revised to 11.64 million yuan due to a legal ruling requiring compensation of 61.31 million yuan for trademark infringement, significantly higher than the previously expected 30 million yuan [1][2]. - The final adjustment resulted in a net loss of 42.72 million yuan, primarily due to the inability to recognize deferred tax assets from the transfer of three R&D projects from a wholly-owned subsidiary, which was expected to generate 52.74 million yuan in deferred tax assets [1][3][4]. Legal Disputes - The company has been involved in a series of legal battles regarding trademark rights, particularly with Ganli Pharmaceutical over the "Changshulin" trademark, which has resulted in significant financial implications [2][3]. - The legal proceedings included multiple court rulings, with the final judgment requiring the company to pay over 60 million yuan in damages, impacting its financial statements and leading to the recognition of liabilities [2][3]. Market Conditions - The company has been affected by the national drug procurement policy, which has led to a decrease in sales prices for its insulin products, resulting in a revenue decline of approximately 0.90 billion yuan for 2024 [9][11]. - The sales volume of insulin products dropped significantly, with a 58% decrease in the first half of 2024 compared to the second half of 2023, although there was a recovery in the second half of 2024 [9][11]. Strategic Responses - In response to the challenges posed by the procurement policy, the company has implemented a "volume protection and expansion" strategy, achieving significant breakthroughs in hospital access for its insulin products [12][19]. - The company has also launched new products, including GLP-1 receptor agonists and SGLT-2 inhibitors, to enhance its market presence and competitiveness [12][19]. Internal Controls and Financial Management - The company has maintained that its financial accounting practices are prudent and that its internal control systems are effective, despite the significant adjustments to its financial forecasts [15][21]. - The audit committee has confirmed that the adjustments made to the financial statements were based on the best estimates available at the time and that the internal controls regarding sales expenses and financial reporting are robust [15][21].

整理 | GLP1减重宝典内容团队 一种类似于 Ozempic 的糖尿病药物已被小型临床试验证明可以降低令人衰弱的偏头痛的发作频率。 研究人员表示，利拉鲁肽（一种最初用于治疗糖尿病和体重管理的药物）可能通过降低颅内压来缓解偏头痛的发作频率和严重程度。 这项研究可能为一种通过针对脑压机制而非仅仅控制症状来解决偏头痛根本原因的治疗方法铺平道路。 研究表明，利拉鲁肽（用于治疗糖尿病的 Victoza 和用于减肥的 Saxenda）可能显著降低令人衰弱的偏头痛的发作频率。有趣的是，这 种益处似乎与任何体重减轻无关。 利拉鲁肽对偏头痛发作频率和严重程度的影响 尽管结果令人鼓舞，但现在判断利拉鲁肽是否会成为偏头痛的标准治疗药物还为时过早。 对于数百万偏头痛患者来说，寻找有效的治疗方法可能是一个充满反复试验的艰巨过程。然而，6 月 17 日发表 的一项新的初步研究为 那些寻求缓解的患者带来了希望。 该研究的作者指出，偏头痛是一种常见的神经系统疾病，影响着全球约14.7%的人口。偏头痛常常导致严重残疾并降低生活质量。 尽管有许多治疗方法，但许多患者仍然饱受频繁偏头痛的折磨，且对常规药物治疗无效。 这项新研究旨在评估利拉鲁肽（ ...

整理 | GLP1减重宝典内容团队 一种药物很少能成为家喻户晓的名字，成为超级明星更是凤毛麟角，但凭借其抢眼的头条新闻，司美格鲁肽堪称制药界的神药。那么，它如此 耀眼的背后究竟隐藏着什么呢？这种药物及其衍生物开始流行，研究人员也在竞相研究其作用原理。 伊利诺伊大学的史蒂文·戴扬说："我们看到了许多令人难以置信的好处。现在还为时过早，但看起来这些药物不仅会改变医学，还会改变整个 经济。" 点击关注，追踪最新GLP-1资讯 ▍司美格鲁肽显示治疗多种疾病潜力 大多数药物只能治疗一两种疾病，这意味着承诺解决所有疾病的"万能药"通常会受到怀疑和质疑。Ozempic 似乎逆转了这一趋势。 去年， Wegovy（一种获批用于减肥的 Ozempic 版本）被证明可以将心脏病发作和中风的风险降低近 20%。" Ozempic 怀孕"的出现暗示了生育方面 的益处。人们开始注意到它对抑郁和焦虑的积极影响。5 月份，研究结果显示，在为期三年的试验中，该药物还降低了糖尿病患者肾衰竭和死 亡的风险。7 月份，研究人员发现利拉鲁肽可以减少阿尔茨海默病患者的大脑萎缩并减缓认知能力下降。 这种药物为何能帮助治疗如此多的疾病仍是一个谜，但研究人 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 semi-annual performance forecasts of listed companies have been disclosed, with 152 A-share companies reporting, of which 101 expect profit increases, 10 expect to turn losses into profits, and 15 expect profit decreases, indicating a positive trend in overall performance [1][4]. Group 1: Performance Highlights - Huayin Power leads with an expected net profit increase of 4423%, driven by high temperatures and increased electricity demand, projecting a net profit of 180 to 220 million yuan [4][5]. - Xinda Co. follows with a projected net profit increase of 2834.73%, attributed to rising prices of its core herbicide product, with a current market price of 120,000 to 160,000 yuan per ton [5]. - Shen Shen Fang A has reversed its losses with an expected net profit of 85 to 120 million yuan, a significant increase due to a recovery in the Greater Bay Area's new housing market [5][6]. Group 2: Industry Performance - The electronics, chemical, and pharmaceutical sectors are experiencing high growth, with 111 companies reporting profit increases, particularly in the electronics sector with 15 companies showing positive forecasts [8][9]. - Industrial Fulian expects a net profit of 11.96 to 12.16 billion yuan, benefiting from a 60% increase in AI server revenue [9][10]. - The chemical sector is also thriving, with companies like Xinhong Cheng expecting a net profit of 3.3 to 3.75 billion yuan, driven by increased sales and prices of core products [12]. Group 3: Pharmaceutical Sector Recovery - Several pharmaceutical companies are seeing a resurgence, with Hanyu Pharmaceutical projecting a net profit increase of 1470.82% to 1663.89% due to the approval of its weight-loss drug in the U.S. [14]. - Shengnuo Bio expects a net profit of 77.02 to 94.14 million yuan, driven by strong sales in the peptide raw material business [14]. - Shanghai Pharmaceuticals anticipates a net profit of 4.45 billion yuan, a 52% increase from the previous year, due to acquisitions and consolidation [14].

Core Insights - A total of 152 A-share companies have released their performance forecasts for the first half of 2025, with 101 companies expecting profit increases, 10 companies turning losses into profits, and 15 companies predicting profit decreases [1] - The most significant profit increase is expected from Huayin Power, with a projected net profit surge of 4423% [2][3] - The semiconductor and server sectors are benefiting from the rapid development of the artificial intelligence industry, leading to substantial growth in earnings for electronic companies [1][6] Company Performance Highlights - Huayin Power anticipates a net profit of 180 million to 220 million yuan, an increase of 175 million to 215 million yuan compared to the previous year, representing a growth rate of 3600.7% to 4423.07% [2] - Xianda Co. expects a net profit of 130 million to 150 million yuan, a significant increase of 125 million to 145 million yuan from approximately 532.12 thousand yuan last year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2443.43% to 2834.73% [3] - Deep Shenzhen A is projected to achieve a net profit of 85 million to 120 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 1411.70% to 2034.17% after two years of losses [3] Industry Trends - The electronic, chemical, and pharmaceutical sectors are experiencing high levels of profitability, with 111 companies reporting profit increases or turning losses into profits [6] - Industrial Fulian expects a net profit of 11.958 billion to 12.158 billion yuan, driven by a more than 60% year-on-year increase in AI server revenue [7] - The chemical sector is seeing profit growth due to rising demand and prices for core products, with companies like New Hope and Juhua Co. reporting significant increases in net profits [9] Pharmaceutical Sector Recovery - Hanyu Pharmaceutical is projected to achieve a net profit of 142 million to 162 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1470.82% to 1663.89% after receiving FDA approval for its weight-loss drug [10] - Shengnuo Bio expects a net profit of 77.02 million to 94.14 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 253.54% to 332.1% due to strong performance in the peptide raw material business [10] - Shanghai Pharmaceuticals anticipates a net profit of 4.45 billion yuan, a 52% increase from the previous year, attributed to acquisitions and consolidation adjustments [10]

整理 | GLP1减重宝典内容团队 近日，湘雅二医院研究人员发表在柳叶刀子刊eClinicalMedicine上的一项系统综述和Meta分析，研究了在FDA和欧洲药监局批准上市的减肥 药。 结果表明， 对于减肥，替尔泊肽是首选，其次是司美格鲁肽 。考虑到心脏代谢风险因素， 替尔泊肽显示出最佳的降血压和降血糖效果，而司 美格鲁肽和利拉鲁肽可降低 MACE 风险 。纳曲酮/安非他酮有升高血压的风险。芬特明/托吡酯有较高的心理副作用风险，应谨慎使用。尽管 存在与研究异质性相关的局限性，但这些发现为不同个体的体重管理策略提供了宝贵的见解。 ▍研究背景 超重和肥胖对个人和社会构成了严重的健康挑战。本研究旨在通过总结最近关于减肥药物疗法的研究来促进肥胖的个性化治疗，重点关注其对 减肥、心脏代谢健康、心理结果和不良事件的影响。 ▍ 研究 方法 本系统评价和荟萃分析包括从开始到 2024 年 6 月 8 日对 Web of Science、PubMed 和 Cochrane 对照试验中心注册库的搜索。纳入了评估美国 食品药品监督管理局 (FDA) 或欧洲药品管理局 (EMA) 批准用于治疗超重或肥胖的减肥药物疗法的随机对照试 ...

此外，就在7月1日，翰宇药业发布今年半年利润的业绩预告称：2025年上半年，公司预计实现归母净利 润1.42亿-1.62亿元，同比增幅高达1470%-1664%；扣非净利润1.22亿元-1.42亿元，同比增长 304.27%-337.76%。值得注意的是，翰宇药业能做到这一步实在不容易，公司曾陷于扣非净利润亏损长 达7年之久，这还是首次实现扭亏为盈。翰宇药业将最大功臣归于其"减重神药"利拉鲁肽注射液仿制药 的出海成功以及原料药的国际收入和成本控制等。去年12月，其仿制的利拉鲁肽注射液在美国上市，并 和美国合作伙伴Hikma采取"低出货价+高利润分成的BD"模式。 外资药企进军新赛道 与此同时，外资药企也并没有"坐等"后来者赶超，而是在不断开拓进军新赛道。就在2025年6月30日， 礼来宣布穆峰达®（替尔泊肽注射液）获得中国国家药品监督管理局批准，成为首个且目前唯一用于治 疗成人肥胖患者的中度至重度阻塞性睡眠呼吸暂停（OSA）的处方药。替尔泊肽可改善中度至重度阻塞 性睡眠呼吸暂停肥胖成人患者的睡眠障碍。该适应症的使用需在控制饮食和增加运动基础上进行。 据悉，除了改善睡眠呼吸暂停症状外，接受替尔泊肽治疗的成人患者 ...