英国《自然》杂志17日刊载的一份研究报告说，氢排放会间接加剧全球变暖，1990年至2020年累积的氢排放为工业化后的全球平均气温上升"贡 献"了0.02摄氏度。研究人员认为，应关注氢排放的影响，确保氢作为清洁能源发挥作用。 研究人员指出，氢排放对全球变暖产生的间接影响会减少用氢能源替代化石能源带来的益处，"我们需要对全球氢循环以及它与全球变暖之间的关 联进行更深入了解"。 国际组织"全球碳计划"开展的这项研究发现，氢气间接加剧全球变暖的主要原因是它会消耗大气中能够分解温室气体甲烷的天然净化物质。 这是2024年3月24日拍摄的新西兰南岛西海岸福克斯冰川一隅。新华社发（杨柳摄） 研究人员说，大气中的氢气越多，这类天然净化物质就越少，从而延长甲烷在大气中的留存时间，加剧升温。此外，氢气与这些天然净化物质的 反应还会生成臭氧、水蒸气等温室气体，进一步助推全球变暖。 研究人员发现，1990年至2020年间，全球氢气排放量的增加主要源于人类活动。氢排放的主要来源是甲烷等化合物的分解，而甲烷在大气中的快 速增加源于化石燃料的使用、农业生产以及垃圾填埋等活动。 据研究人员估算，自1990年以来，甲烷等化合物分解产生的氢气年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The focus of the 8th China International Import Expo is on establishing a new global green trade order that is open, stable, and inclusive, emphasizing the importance of global governance in green trade and its connection to sustainable development and climate change actions [1][2]. Group 1: Global Governance and Trade - The need for active participation in global governance of green trade is highlighted, linking it to the 17 Sustainable Development Goals established by the UN in 2015 [1]. - Trade protectionism is seen as a barrier to green trade liberalization, with a call to oppose unilateralism and protect the interests of traditional fossil fuels [2][3]. Group 2: Investment Trends - Since 2018, global investments in clean energy have surpassed those in fossil fuels, with projections indicating that by the end of 2024, global offshore wind power capacity will reach 83.2 GW, with China accounting for 50% [3]. - The U.S. has significantly reduced its investment in green energy, contrasting with non-oil-producing countries in Latin America, Africa, and South Asia, where two-thirds have surpassed the U.S. in solar power generation [3]. Group 3: Green Products and Standards - The production of green products is identified as the cornerstone of green trade, necessitating a broader focus on industrial and energy transitions to facilitate this [4]. - Fragmentation in policy and standards for green trade is a significant challenge, with the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism posing new barriers for product exports [4]. Group 4: Consumer Awareness and Standards - Growing consumer awareness of green and low-carbon products is influencing market dynamics, with examples of transparency in product carbon emissions in New Zealand [5]. - There is a call for establishing a green low-carbon product technical service standard system aligned with international standards to enhance domestic competitiveness [5]. Group 5: International Collaboration - The importance of engaging in discussions within international frameworks such as the UN and G20 to assert China's voice in carbon-related trade rules is emphasized [5]. - China's advancements in green and industrial transformation provide a strong foundation for participating in global green trade governance and promoting trade liberalization [5].

Core Insights - The 2025 Autumn Strategy Conference by CITIC Futures focused on the theme "Tides Surge, Breakthroughs and Innovations," analyzing investment opportunities across various sectors for Q4 and 2026 [1] Macro and Precious Metals Forum - The macroeconomic outlook for Q4 is characterized by a "steady progress" approach, with policies aimed at stabilizing growth through 500 billion yuan in financial tools and potential interest rate cuts [2] - Gold is expected to show a strong oscillation in Q4, with long-term strategic allocation opportunities due to the anticipated decline in real interest rates and ongoing geopolitical tensions [2] Financial Forum - Equity assets are projected to perform positively in Q4, driven by new capital inflows and policy expectations, with a focus on IM long positions and strategies to capitalize on market movements [3] - The bond market may shift from a weak stance, with a potential recovery in bullish sentiment, although the 10-year government bond yield is expected to fluctuate between 1.65% and 1.95% [3] Energy and Chemical Forum - The energy and chemical sectors are facing slightly weak supply and demand dynamics in Q4, with oil prices influenced by geopolitical factors and supply disruptions [4] - The chemical industry is under pressure from increasing production capacities, particularly in PVC and styrene, which may hinder demand growth without supportive consumption policies [4] Non-Ferrous Metals Forum - The non-ferrous metals sector is expected to see a positive shift in Q4, with copper, aluminum, and tin being highlighted as potential bullish opportunities due to supply disruptions and macroeconomic support from interest rate cuts [5][6] - Industrial silicon and lithium carbonate may face downward pressure, while polysilicon is expected to benefit from supply-side contraction policies [6] Agricultural Forum - Agricultural products are in a transitional phase between old and new crops, with inventory dynamics and international trade relations significantly impacting market conditions [7] - The soybean market is expected to remain stable, while palm oil may see bullish opportunities due to seasonal production declines [7] Black Metals Forum - The black metals market is anticipated to experience a mixed trend, with short-term price support from a favorable macro environment, but potential long-term weakness due to inventory pressures [8] - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate widely, while coal and coke prices may initially rise before facing downward pressure [8] Innovation Forum - The energy sector is under pressure from oversupply, with fossil fuels facing challenges, while the demand for new energy sources is expected to grow steadily [9] - The shipping market is projected to perform strongly due to production increases and sanctions, with coal supply tightening expected to support prices [9]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Taiyuan Energy Low Carbon Development Forum emphasizes the theme of "green low-carbon transformation and the construction of a new energy system," showcasing global wisdom and the latest achievements in energy transition [1] Group 1: Global Energy Transition - The global energy transition is making progress, with renewable energy sources like solar and wind gradually replacing fossil fuels, gaining widespread recognition and support [1] - Countries are exploring energy transition paths that align with their national conditions, indicating a tailored approach to energy transformation [1] Group 2: China's Renewable Energy Development - China has established the world's largest and fastest-growing renewable energy system, with wind and solar installed capacity reaching 1.68 billion kilowatts by the end of July 2025 [1] - China has maintained the world's largest installed capacity for wind power for 15 consecutive years and for solar power for 10 consecutive years, highlighting its leadership in renewable energy [1]