Report Summary Core View - Recent COMEX copper prices have fallen significantly by nearly 20% due to the implementation of US copper tariffs, and the spread between COMEX and LME copper has narrowed from nearly $3000 to less than $1000. The exclusion of refined copper from tariffs may lead to an increase in US refined copper imports and a return of copper processing enterprises to the US [2]. - From the supply - demand side, copper mine supply remains tight, processing fees are at a low level, and demand is weak in the off - season with copper rod开工率 falling and terminal consumption dropping. Copper inventory has accumulated again, and refined copper supply - demand has weakened [3]. - Looking ahead, COMEX copper has fallen, and the C - L spread is approaching the historical average. Conditional spot investors can conduct short - selling arbitrage operations on COMEX copper, and pay attention to the long - LME and short - SHFE copper cross - market arbitrage [4]. Latest Dynamic and Reasons - The US will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive derivatives starting from August 1, but refined copper is excluded, which is different from market expectations. This may lead to an increase in US refined copper imports and a return of copper processing enterprises to the US [2]. Fundamental Situation - Supply side: Copper mine supply is tight, processing fees are at a low level, and the production guidance of some copper mines has been lowered, increasing the production risk of smelters [3]. - Demand side: In the off - season, copper rod开工率 has declined, terminal consumption such as household appliances has decreased, and copper inventory has accumulated again, and refined copper supply - demand has weakened [3]. - Other factors: The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate in July, the expectation of a September rate cut has decreased, and investors are becoming more cautious as the expiration date of the reciprocal tariff approaches [3]. Summary and Strategy - Spot investors with conditions can conduct short - selling arbitrage operations on COMEX copper according to their own situations [4]. - Pay attention to the long - LME and short - SHFE copper cross - market arbitrage due to the relatively high SHFE/LME ratio and positive import profit [4].

Group 1 - The U.S. government has announced a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives starting August 1, which disrupts market expectations and affects the stability of the U.S. copper-intensive industry [1] - The new tariffs will not apply to copper ore, refined copper, and copper scrap, but will impact industries reliant on copper, such as construction, automotive, and electronics, potentially increasing their costs [3] - Approximately half of the copper consumed in the U.S. is imported, primarily from countries like Chile and Canada, indicating a significant reliance on foreign supply [3] Group 2 - Experts suggest that the 50% tariff will cause "medium-term damage" to Chile, but the country can mitigate "long-term damage" through market diversification strategies [5] - Canadian copper producers have received temporary exemptions from tariffs on copper concentrates and scrap, but manufacturers of copper wire and cables may face challenges if they cannot shift trade to other markets [7] - The tariffs may suppress overall U.S. economic growth, as the increased costs of copper products could be passed on to consumers, affecting various sectors [9]

Core Points - Chile has announced that its cathode copper products will be exempt from tariffs, emphasizing its role in supporting U.S. industrial development [1][2] - The U.S. government, under President Trump, has imposed a 50% tariff on imported copper products starting August 1, which may significantly increase costs for U.S. manufacturers [1] - Chile is the largest copper producer globally, exporting over $5.6 billion worth of copper to the U.S. in 2024, accounting for 70% of U.S. copper imports [1] Group 1 - Chile's Finance Minister stated that the exemption from tariffs is beneficial for both Chile and U.S. industries, highlighting the importance of Chilean copper for U.S. industrial growth [1] - The U.S. administration views high copper import levels and global overcapacity as a threat to national security, but Chile argues that it enhances U.S. security as a reliable supplier [2] - Chile's exports primarily consist of cathode and refined copper products, with the remaining 30% of U.S. copper imports sourced from Mexico, Canada, and Peru [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. government has implemented a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives, while excluding raw copper materials and scrap copper from these tariffs [1][4] - Following the announcement, U.S. copper prices dropped approximately 20%, contrasting with prior expectations of broader tariffs on all copper products [1][4] - The White House justified the tariffs by stating that excessive copper imports threaten U.S. industry and national security, but did not clarify the exclusion of raw copper materials [4] Group 1: Tariff Implementation - The tariff policy specifically targets semi-finished copper products such as copper pipes, wires, rods, and sheets, as well as copper-intensive derivatives like fittings, cables, connectors, and electrical components [1] - Raw copper materials, including copper ore, concentrates, blister copper, cathodes, and anodes, are not subject to the tariffs under the Section 232 provisions [1][4] Group 2: Market Reactions - U.S. copper futures prices had previously surged about 28% above those on the London Metal Exchange due to anticipatory buying by U.S. buyers expecting high tariffs on all copper products [4] - The immediate aftermath of the tariff announcement saw a significant decline in U.S. copper prices, reflecting market adjustments to the new policy [4] Group 3: Industry Perspectives - Industry representatives had lobbied against broad tariffs, arguing that the U.S. lacks sufficient capacity to replace all copper product imports, particularly raw materials [4] - Analysts suggest that the tariff policy may disrupt global copper product trade flows, with previously stockpiled copper products in the U.S. potentially being re-exported [4] Group 4: Future Considerations - The White House has indicated that tariffs on refined copper may be considered in the future, with a proposed phased tariff structure starting at 15% in 2027 and increasing to 30% by 2028 [5] - The U.S. Commerce Department has been tasked with providing an updated assessment of the copper market by mid-2026 to determine the necessity of further tariffs [5]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent announcement by President Trump regarding new tariffs on imports from South Korea, India, and Brazil, indicating a significant shift in trade policy [1][2][3] - South Korea will face a 15% tariff, while India will see a 25% tariff on its exports to the U.S., with Trump citing high tariffs and non-tariff barriers as reasons for the changes [2][3] - Brazil's tariffs will increase to 50%, with specific exemptions for certain products like wood pulp and oil [2][3] Group 2 - Starting August 1, the U.S. will impose a 50% tariff on various semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives, which could impact industries reliant on these materials [3][4] - The announcement led to a significant drop in copper prices, with New York copper futures falling nearly 20% [4]

Core Viewpoint - Grupo Mexico maintains a "very optimistic" outlook on the long-term growth prospects of the copper industry in Asia despite the recent announcement of a 50% tariff on copper imports by the United States [1] Group 1: Tariff Announcement - On July 30, the White House announced that President Trump would impose a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives, effective from August 1 [1] Group 2: Company Response - Leonardo Contreras, CFO of Grupo Mexico's mining division, stated that the company will continue to monitor global changes before deciding whether to restart a mothballed smelting project in Arizona [1]

Core Viewpoint - The copper industry stocks have experienced a significant decline following the announcement of a 50% tariff on imported copper products by U.S. President Trump, leading to a sharp drop in copper prices [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Zijin Mining (02899) fell by 4.48%, trading at HKD 21.3 [1] - Jiangxi Copper (00358) decreased by 4.09%, trading at HKD 15.94 [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) dropped by 3.48%, trading at HKD 9.15 [1] - Minmetals Resources (01208) declined by 2.75%, trading at HKD 3.89 [1] Group 2: Tariff Announcement - President Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives starting August 1 [1] - Copper input materials and scrap copper are exempt from the "Section 232" tariffs [1] Group 3: Market Reaction - Following the tariff announcement, copper prices in New York plummeted approximately 20% within minutes, marking the largest single-day drop in history [1] - Earlier this year, Trump's initial hints at potential copper tariffs led to a surge in U.S. copper prices relative to the global market, resulting in a rush of copper imports into the U.S. [1] - The recent announcement of a 50% tariff was double the expectations of most market participants, causing U.S. copper prices to reach historical highs [1] - The large quantities of copper recently shipped to the U.S. may be subject to re-export due to the new tariff policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The copper industry stocks have experienced a significant decline following the announcement of a 50% tariff on imported copper products by U.S. President Trump, leading to a historic drop in copper prices [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Zijin Mining (601899) saw a drop of 4.48%, trading at 21.3 HKD [1] - Jiangxi Copper (600362) decreased by 4.09%, with a price of 15.94 HKD [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) fell by 3.48%, priced at 9.15 HKD [1] - Minmetals Resources (01208) declined by 2.75%, trading at 3.89 HKD [1] Group 2: Tariff Announcement Impact - President Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives starting August 1 [1] - Following the tariff announcement, New York copper prices plummeted approximately 20% within minutes, marking the largest single-day drop in history [1] - The tariff is expected to affect the recent influx of copper into the U.S., which may lead to a re-export of large quantities of copper [1] Group 3: Historical Context - Earlier in the year, Trump's initial hints at potential copper tariffs caused U.S. copper prices to rise significantly compared to global markets, resulting in a surge of copper shipments to the U.S. [1] - On July 9, Trump announced the 50% tariff, which was double the expectations of most market participants, leading to a record high in U.S. copper prices [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. government announced a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives, effective from August 1 [1][2] - The new tariffs are part of a broader strategy to boost domestic industries and address trade imbalances, following previous tariffs on steel and aluminum [2] - The tariffs will not apply to copper raw materials and scrap, which are exempt from the "Section 232" provisions [1][2] Group 2 - Following the announcement, copper prices in New York plummeted over 18% within minutes [2] - The White House indicated that these copper tariffs will not be cumulative with additional tariffs on automobile imports [2] - There is a requirement for 25% of high-quality copper scrap and raw copper products to be sold domestically, although this is not expected to have immediate significant impact [2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government, under President Trump, announced a 50% tariff on various imported copper products starting August 1, which has led to a significant drop in copper prices in New York [1]. Group 1: Tariff Announcement - The White House declared that from August 1, a 50% tariff will be imposed on imported semi-finished copper products, including copper pipes, wires, rods, and sheets, as well as copper-intensive derivatives like fittings, cables, connectors, and electrical components [1]. - Copper input materials such as copper ore, concentrates, blister copper, cathodes, and anodes, along with copper scrap, are exempt from the "Section 232" tariffs [1]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the tariff announcement, copper prices in New York plummeted by over 18% [1]. - The media has warned that this tariff could lead to soaring costs for U.S. manufacturers, potentially delivering a heavy blow to the American manufacturing sector [1].