Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government has unexpectedly expanded the 50% steel and aluminum tariffs to 407 additional product categories, impacting various industries and raising concerns among importers and businesses [3][4][6]. Group 1: Tariff Expansion Details - The recent tariff increase is part of a series of measures initiated by the Trump administration to strengthen the U.S. steel and aluminum industries, with tariffs raised from 25% to 50% [5][12]. - The newly affected products include wind turbine components, heavy machinery, furniture, and various consumer goods, with an estimated 673 steel and 188 aluminum derivative products now subject to tariffs [6][8]. - The rapid implementation of these tariffs has left many importers unprepared, leading to significant operational challenges [6][7]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The expansion of tariffs is expected to affect approximately $328 billion worth of imports, significantly increasing inflationary pressures on prices already rising due to previous tariff measures [12][13]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) data indicates a 0.9% month-on-month increase in July, the largest in three years, suggesting that the tariffs will exacerbate existing inflation trends [13]. - Industries such as construction, automotive, and packaging are projected to face the most severe impacts, with the cost of manufacturing a vehicle potentially increasing by over $2,000 due to the tariffs [13][14].

Group 1 - The Trump administration will announce the results of a national security investigation into semiconductor imports within two weeks, raising concerns about potential new tariffs on chips [1] - The investigation, initiated on April 13, focuses on the semiconductor industry and the entire electronic supply chain, potentially laying the groundwork for new tariffs under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 [1] - Barclays has indicated that the timeline for imposing semiconductor tariffs is becoming clearer, with implementation likely after mid-August and no later than September [1] Group 2 - President Trump stated that many companies will invest in semiconductor manufacturing in the U.S. to avoid the impact of new tariffs, while the European Commission President has found a "better way" to circumvent the upcoming chip tariffs [2] - The U.S. has reached a 15% tariff agreement with the EU, which will increase investments in the U.S. by $600 billion and purchase $750 billion worth of U.S. energy products, while maintaining the current steel and aluminum tariffs [2] - The Trump administration is investigating the national security threat posed by reliance on foreign pharmaceuticals and semiconductor imports, alongside separate investigations into copper and lumber imports [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration has shifted its focus back to tariffs and trade following the passage of the "Great American Rescue Plan," with a series of high-intensity tariff actions initiated in early July [1] Tariff Actions - Trump announced three rounds of tariffs from July 7 to 10, targeting 14 countries with tariffs ranging from 25% to 40%, 8 countries with tariffs from 20% to 50%, and a 35% tariff on Canadian imports, along with a unified tariff of 15% or 20% for other countries [1] - The effective average tariff rate in the U.S. is expected to stabilize around 15-16% in the near future, with most newly notified countries having a negligible impact on the overall effective tax rate [1][2] Market Reaction - Following the announcement of new tariffs, major asset prices remained stable, with the U.S. stock market reaching new highs and the long-term U.S. Treasury yield rising slightly to around 4.4% [5] - Investors appear to be desensitized to Trump's tariff policies, viewing them more as negotiation tactics rather than significant threats [5] Tariff Revenue - U.S. tariff revenue surged to $26.6 billion in June, quadrupling the usual level, with total revenue for the first half of the year reaching $87.2 billion [5] - The 10% baseline tariff has generated over $17.7 billion in revenue, with specific tariffs on the automotive sector contributing more than $10.7 billion [5] Future Projections - Analysts predict that if the average effective tariff rate remains between 10-14%, it could yield annual tariff revenues of $300 billion to $400 billion, potentially offsetting the increased spending from the "Great American Rescue Plan," which is estimated to add $340 billion annually [6] - The effective tariff rate is projected to be around 2.3% by the end of 2024, with potential increases if new tariffs are fully implemented [6][10] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The impact of tariffs on inflation appears limited, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a year-on-year increase of 2.7% in June, lower than earlier in the year [11] - The Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts due to the potential for tariffs to exert lasting inflationary pressure, with expectations for a rate hold in July and a possible cut in September [14]

Group 1: Pharmaceutical Industry - The Trump administration is threatening to impose a 200% tariff on imported pharmaceuticals, with a timeline for companies to adjust of about one to one and a half years [2][3] - The Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA) opposes the tariffs, stating that every dollar spent on tariffs cannot be invested in U.S. manufacturing or future treatments [3] - Analysts believe that the announcement may have a positive impact on the pharmaceutical sector, as the tariffs are not expected to be implemented immediately and their future enforcement remains uncertain [2] Group 2: Copper Industry - Trump is considering a 50% additional tax on imported copper, although no specific implementation date has been provided [3][4] - Following the tariff announcement, copper prices surged over 10%, reaching a historical high in the New York market, with futures rising 13.12%, marking the largest single-day increase since 1989 [3][4] - The U.S. relies heavily on copper imports, with nearly half of its copper supply coming from abroad, primarily from Chile [4]

美国财长贝森特：目前正在谈判对等关税，我们将拭目以待232条款。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated that the impact of tariffs on inflation is temporary, and a series of trade agreements are expected to be reached in the coming week [1] - There is a possibility of restoring tariffs to the levels seen on April 2 if trade partners "refuse to compromise" [1] - Ongoing negotiations are focused on reciprocal tariffs, with attention on the Section 232 provisions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Gina Raimondo, announced that an analysis under Section 232 regarding aircraft will be conducted by the end of the month [1] Group 1 - The analysis will focus on the impact of foreign aircraft on national security [1] - This move indicates a potential shift in trade policy concerning the aerospace industry [1] - The outcome of the analysis could lead to tariffs or other trade measures affecting aircraft imports [1]

证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-06-03 研究所 分析师:李起 SAC 登记编号:S1340524110001 Email:liqi2@cnpsec.com 研究助理:高晓洁 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020001 Email:gaoxiaojie@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《费用下行支撑盈利改善，关税分担恐 倒压上游价格》 - 2025.05.28 宏观观点 特朗普对等关税法院受挫，有待更换法律依据 ⚫ 核心观点 北京时间 5 月 29 日上午，美国国际贸易法院推翻了特朗普总统 关于对等关税的行政措施。三名法官表示，对等关税已超越《国际紧 急经济权力法》（IEEPA）授予总统的权限。 法院指出，IEEPA 中的"调节……进口"一词并未授权总统征收 无上限的关税；此外，法院提及《1974 年贸易法》122 条款的存在， 证明了即使"美国国际收支逆差巨大且严重"，也无需动用紧急权力， 总统只需在规定的程序限制下采取有限的补救措施即可。 此次判决对总统滥用 IEEPA 加征关税的合法性提出了质疑，若判 决最终落地，意味着包括 10%基础关税、对等关税，以及以"国家紧 急状态"为由（ ...

Report Summary 1. Hot News - The U.S. Trade Representative's Office extended the exemption period for the Section 301 investigation against China until August 31, originally set to expire on May 31. China has repeatedly lodged solemn representations with the U.S. over Section 301 tariffs, which violate WTO rules, disrupt international trade, and burden U.S. businesses and consumers [2] - Goldman Sachs' commodities research team said the U.S. is investigating copper imports under Section 232 and has doubled steel and aluminum import tariffs to 50%, increasing the likelihood of copper import tariffs. Goldman Sachs raised its H2 2025 aluminum price forecast by $140/ton to $2280/ton, expecting it to drop to $2100/ton in early 2026 and reach $2230/ton and $2500/ton in 2026 and 2027 respectively, lower than previous forecasts [2] - The U.S. April core PCE price index rose 2.5% year-on-year, in line with expectations and slower than the previous revised 2.7%, the smallest increase in over four years. The "super core inflation indicator" also hit a four-year low. Traders still bet on a Fed rate cut in September [3] - China's May manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 ppts month-on-month; non-manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 0.1 ppt; composite PMI was 50.4%, up 0.2 ppts. New export and import order indices rose 2.8 and 3.7 ppts respectively. Some U.S.-related enterprises reported improved foreign trade [3] - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, the third consecutive monthly increase. The eight OPEC+ members will meet on July 6 to decide August production policy [3] 2. Sector Performance - Key sectors to watch: urea, lithium carbonate, asphalt, soybean oil, hot-rolled coils [4] - Sector percentage changes: non-metallic building materials 2.71%, precious metals 30.65%, oilseeds and fats 11.88%, soft commodities 2.44%, non-ferrous metals 19.05%, coal, coke, steel and ore 13.59%, energy 2.60%, chemicals 12.83%, grains 1.58%, agricultural and sideline products 2.67% [4] 3. Sector Positions - Information about the recent five-day changes in commodity futures sector positions is presented, but specific numerical changes are not clearly stated [5] 4. Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.47% daily, with a monthly change of 0.00% and an annual change of -0.13%. Other indices like S&P 500, Hang Seng Index, etc., also had different performances [7] - Fixed income: 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year treasury bond futures had different daily, monthly, and annual changes [7] - Commodities: CRB commodity index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, etc., showed various changes [7] - Others: The U.S. dollar index and CBOE volatility index also had corresponding changes [7]

白宫周四一直在评估两项裁决的影响，这两项裁决暂停了美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的大部分关税。法院 认为，特朗普根据一项紧急授权实施关税的行为超越了权力范围。美国联邦上诉法院暂时搁置了这项裁 决，以便听取辩论，尽管它最终可能支持最初的裁决，并阻止特朗普的关税政策。 尽管特朗普誓言如有必要将上诉至最高法院，但他的高级助手表示，特朗普不会放弃其关税措施，并将 在必要时使用其他法律权力。 特朗普最鹰派的贸易顾问之一彼得·纳瓦罗周四表示："没有B计划，只有A计划。A计划包含了所有的战 略选择。" 智通财经APP获悉，尽管在法庭遭遇挫折，但特朗普政府坚称，无论采用何种方式，关税政策都将继续 实施。 特朗普已经动用232条款的权力对钢铁、铝和汽车征收关税，所有这些关税都是根据他本届任期之前的 调查制定的。他还发起了其他调查以增加其他关税，涉及的产品包括半导体以及消费电子产品、药品和 铜等。 白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特指出，232条款的权力是对那些可能将法庭挫折视为筹码的国家发出的警 告。 她表示："其他国家也应该知道，总统保留了其他关税权力，比如232条款，以确保美国在世界各地的利 益得到恢复。" 当被问及这是否意味着特朗普将启 ...