热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 2026年1月30日，商品期货开盘，BR橡胶主力合约涨超4%，焦煤、沪银、焦炭、燃料油涨超3%，原 油、PTA、液化气、甲醇涨超2%。铝合金跌超2%，沪铝、氧化铝跌超1%。 | 序号 | 合约名称 | 量新 | 现手 | 2017 | 李伯 | XXIEXT | 天堂 | 不难 | 成交量 | SEST | 持仓量 | 日增仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | BR有限交2603 M | 13780 | 481 | 13775 | 13780 | 4.24% | 3 | पी | 362765 | 560 | 65431 | -2753 | | 2 | 集煤2605 M | 1185.5 | 1613 | 1185.0 | 1185.5 | 3.95% | 374 | 7 | 637002 | 45.0 | 485466 | 8000 | | 3 | 护银2604 M | 30861 | 452 | 30 ...

中国将允许境外投资者参与境内镍、锂期货交易，此举是中国提升自身在全球大宗商品市场影响力的重 要举措之一。 邦德金融有限公司管理合伙人石泰格（音译）表示："这是一项意义重大的举措。" 他指出，随着上海 期货交易所加快国际化布局，铜、铝、锌等其他金属期货品种未来也有望向境外投资者开放。 中国证券监督管理委员会于上周五发布声明称，镍、碳酸锂期货及期权位列此次拟开放的 14 个期货期 权品种名单之中。证监会表示，将督促相关交易所做好业务落地准备工作，但并未公布具体的开放时 间。 上海期货交易所已于去年 5 月公布国际化发展规划，其中就包含允许境外投资者使用外汇资金作为保证 金，参与人民币计价期货交易的相关方案。市场普遍认为，此前对境外资本的准入限制，是制约中国在 全球大宗商品定价体系中发挥更大作用的重要原因。 上海期货交易所于上周五发表声明称，向境外投资者开放期货交易，有助于提升中国大宗商品定价话语 权、完善有色金属风险管理体系，同时也能促进镍价的合理发现。 值得注意的是，中国此前推进的大宗商品期货开放举措成效有限。上海国际能源交易中心（隶属于上期 所）自 2020 年起向境外投资者推出人民币计价铜期货合约，原油期货 ...

Group 1: Report Core View - "Sakata Method" is a K - line analysis system founded by Homma Munehisa, a rice merchant in the Edo period of Japan, and it has remained a classic trading theory [2]. - The method has expanded from the rice market to various trading fields such as stocks, futures, and foreign exchange, and is still useful today [2]. - "Sakata Method" follows four principles: trend - first, emphasis on stop - loss and take - profit, focus on mindset management, and reasonable fund allocation [3]. - A case shows that an investor named Kobayashi successfully used "Sakata Method" to gain profits in the crude oil futures market [3][4]. - "Sakata Method" helps investors manage risks, pursue maximum returns, and avoid emotional decisions, and is worthy of in - depth study [4]. Group 2: Summary by Related Information Origin and Development of "Sakata Method" - "Sakata Method" was created by Homma Munehisa in the Edo period when Japan's commodity market was active, and it gradually formed a complete trading system [2]. - Over time, it has spread to multiple trading fields and combined with modern technical analysis tools [2]. Principles of "Sakata Method" - Trend - first: Identify market trends (up, down, or consolidation) through specific K - line combinations like "Three Soldiers" and "Three Rivers" [3]. - Emphasis on stop - loss and take - profit: Set clear stop - loss and take - profit levels and execute them promptly [3]. - Mindset management: Keep calm and rational during trading [3]. - Reasonable fund allocation: Avoid over - concentrating investment in a single variety or direction [3]. Case Study - In October 2022, due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, Kobayashi identified an "Ascending Three Methods" pattern in the crude oil market using "Sakata Method" [3]. - Kobayashi bought crude oil futures contracts, set stop - loss and take - profit levels, adopted a batch - building strategy, adjusted the stop - loss level during the holding period, and finally achieved the expected profit [3].

Core Points - CME's commodity futures and options trading was suspended due to cooling issues at the CyrusOne data center [1] - The suspension affected various futures contracts including crude oil, palm oil, and gold [1] - CyrusOne operates 35 data centers globally, with locations in the US, UK, Germany, Singapore, and the Netherlands [1] Group 1 - CME announced the trading suspension at 20:40 Central Time due to "technical reasons" related to the cooling system [1] - The support team is working to resolve the issue and will provide updates on trading details [1] - The last update for affected contracts was at 10:48 AM Beijing time, with no further updates available at the time of reporting [1] Group 2 - The cooling system failure at CyrusOne is a critical issue impacting trading operations [1] - The company is a well-known data center provider headquartered in Dallas, Texas [1] - The incident highlights the reliance of financial markets on data center infrastructure for trading activities [1]

- The report introduces three quantitative models: Commodity Term Structure, Commodity Time-Series Momentum, and Commodity Cross-Sectional Inventory. These models are combined into a Composite Commodity Strategy using equal weighting of the three sub-strategies[25][26][28] - **Commodity Term Structure Model**: This model is constructed based on the roll yield factor to capture the contango and backwardation states of commodities. It dynamically goes long on commodities with high roll yields and short on those with low roll yields[26][30][33] - **Commodity Time-Series Momentum Model**: This model uses multiple technical indicators to capture medium- and long-term trends in domestic commodities. It dynamically goes long on assets with upward trends and short on assets with downward trends[26][35][36] - **Commodity Cross-Sectional Inventory Model**: This model is based on the inventory factor to reflect changes in the domestic commodity fundamentals. It dynamically goes long on assets with declining inventory and short on assets with increasing inventory[26][40][43] - **Evaluation of Models**: The Commodity Term Structure Model is noted for its strong performance, achieving a new high in net value during backtesting. The Time-Series Momentum Model has shown weaker performance recently, while the Cross-Sectional Inventory Model has demonstrated moderate gains[25][35][40] - **Backtesting Results**: - Commodity Term Structure Model: Two-week return of 2.31%, year-to-date return of 7.46%[30][33][34] - Commodity Time-Series Momentum Model: Two-week return of -0.38%, year-to-date return of -3.19%[35][36][39] - Commodity Cross-Sectional Inventory Model: Two-week return of 0.98%, year-to-date return of 5.43%[40][43][44]

Group 1 - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange announced the trading schedule for the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival in 2025, indicating no night trading on September 30, 2025, and a market closure from October 1 to October 8, 2025, with trading resuming on October 9, 2025 [1] Group 2 - Starting from the settlement on September 29, 2025, the margin ratios and price fluctuation limits for various futures contracts will be adjusted, including a 9% fluctuation limit for international copper futures and a 12% limit for crude oil and low-sulfur fuel oil futures [2] - The margin ratio for international copper futures will be set at 10% for hedging positions and 11% for general positions, while crude oil futures will have a 13% margin for hedging and 14% for general positions [2] Group 3 - On October 9, 2025, after the first trading day without a one-sided market, the price fluctuation limits and margin ratios for all futures contracts will revert to their original levels [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - Tianyuan Group (06119.HK) expects a significant decrease in profit attributable to shareholders for the six months ending June 30, 2025, with an anticipated unaudited profit of approximately RMB 4.9 million, down about 60% from approximately RMB 12.3 million in the same period of 2024 [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Financial Performance - The unaudited profit for the upcoming period is projected to be around RMB 4.9 million, a decrease of approximately 60% compared to the previous year's figure of RMB 12.3 million [1] Revenue Drivers - The decline in profit is primarily attributed to a decrease in overall demand, which has led to reduced revenue during the period [1] - Additionally, other income has decreased mainly due to lower gains from crude oil futures contracts compared to the same period last year [1]

Group 1 - The company, Tianyuan Group (06119), expects a significant decrease in unaudited profit attributable to shareholders for the six months ending June 30, 2025, with a projected decline of approximately 60% to around RMB 4.9 million, compared to approximately RMB 12.3 million for the same period in 2024 [1] - The decrease in unaudited profit is primarily attributed to a decline in overall demand, leading to reduced revenue during the period [1] - Additionally, the company experienced a decrease in other income, mainly due to lower gains from crude oil futures trading compared to the same period last year [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant increase in lithium carbonate prices due to supply concerns stemming from the suspension of mining operations in the Jiangxi region, particularly the Jiangxia Wokou mining area, which is expected to impact the overall supply-demand balance in the industry [1][2] - The Jiangxia Wokou mining area, which contributes approximately 10,000 tons per month, accounts for about 12.5% of the domestic lithium carbonate production, and its suspension is anticipated to shift the market from a tight balance to a shortage [1] - The new Mineral Resources Law set to be implemented in 2025 is causing concerns regarding the approval processes for other major mining areas, further exacerbating supply worries in the lithium market [1] Group 2 - On August 11, the domestic futures market saw a general increase, with lithium carbonate contracts hitting the limit up, rising over 8%, while other commodities like industrial silicon and red dates also saw gains exceeding 3% [2] - In contrast, commodities such as eggs, fuel, plywood, crude oil, and urea experienced declines of over 1% [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the sudden escalation and subsequent de-escalation of conflict between Israel and Iran, highlighting the volatility in geopolitical tensions and its impact on global markets [1][2][3] - Following the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, there were immediate reports of renewed missile attacks, indicating a lack of trust and ongoing hostilities despite the ceasefire agreement [2][3] - The U.S. President Trump played a significant role in facilitating the ceasefire, emphasizing that both parties do not wish to escalate the situation further, although the situation remains fragile [2][3] Group 2 - Oil prices experienced fluctuations in response to the geopolitical tensions, with WTI crude oil initially dropping by 5% before narrowing the decline to 2.5% and then expanding to a 3.65% drop [4] - Gold prices also saw a slight decrease, with London gold experiencing a drop of 1.34% [6] - The ETF market saw a net inflow of 497.84 billion yuan, with stock ETFs finally turning to net inflows after several weeks of outflows, indicating a potential recovery in investor sentiment [9][19] Group 3 - The articles indicate a shift in U.S. foreign policy focus under Trump, moving from political alliances with Israel to economic cooperation with Gulf states, suggesting a strategic pivot in the region [7] - Trump's comments on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy reflect concerns over the U.S. economy and the need for monetary easing to address high national debt levels [7][8] - The stock market outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with analysts maintaining a positive view on Chinese equities, projecting potential upward movements in major indices [19]