投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 有益的启示 宝城期货 陈栋 "酒田战法"是日本江户时代米商本间宗久创立的 K 线分析体系。当时日本经济处于转型期，商品市场 非常活跃。作为当时著名的商人，本间宗久在米市交易实践中积累了丰富经验，对市场的日常波动有着深 刻的理解，还对影响价格波动的各种因素进行了系统研究。 网址：www.bcqhgs.com 1 地址：杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼3-5层 本间宗久的交易方法是基于对市场趋势的细致观察和精确预测。他的交易策略和技术分析方法经过多 年实践验证，逐渐形成了一套完整的交易体系，即"酒田战法"。这一战法不仅在当时取得了巨大的成功， 而且至今仍是全球投资者学习和实践的经典交易理论之一。 随着时间的推移，"酒田战法"从大米市场，逐步扩展到股票、期货、外汇等交易领域。其基本原理和 分析方法经过演绎和发展，结合现代技术分析工具，使这一古老的交易智慧在现代金融市场中仍然保持着 强大的生命力和实用性，为现代期货投资者提供了宝贵的决策参考。 "酒田战法"遵循四大原则：第一，趋势为王。"酒田战法"认为，市场存在明确的趋势，投资者应顺势 而为，通过 ...

Core Points - CME's commodity futures and options trading was suspended due to cooling issues at the CyrusOne data center [1] - The suspension affected various futures contracts including crude oil, palm oil, and gold [1] - CyrusOne operates 35 data centers globally, with locations in the US, UK, Germany, Singapore, and the Netherlands [1] Group 1 - CME announced the trading suspension at 20:40 Central Time due to "technical reasons" related to the cooling system [1] - The support team is working to resolve the issue and will provide updates on trading details [1] - The last update for affected contracts was at 10:48 AM Beijing time, with no further updates available at the time of reporting [1] Group 2 - The cooling system failure at CyrusOne is a critical issue impacting trading operations [1] - The company is a well-known data center provider headquartered in Dallas, Texas [1] - The incident highlights the reliance of financial markets on data center infrastructure for trading activities [1]

- The report introduces three quantitative models: Commodity Term Structure, Commodity Time-Series Momentum, and Commodity Cross-Sectional Inventory. These models are combined into a Composite Commodity Strategy using equal weighting of the three sub-strategies[25][26][28] - **Commodity Term Structure Model**: This model is constructed based on the roll yield factor to capture the contango and backwardation states of commodities. It dynamically goes long on commodities with high roll yields and short on those with low roll yields[26][30][33] - **Commodity Time-Series Momentum Model**: This model uses multiple technical indicators to capture medium- and long-term trends in domestic commodities. It dynamically goes long on assets with upward trends and short on assets with downward trends[26][35][36] - **Commodity Cross-Sectional Inventory Model**: This model is based on the inventory factor to reflect changes in the domestic commodity fundamentals. It dynamically goes long on assets with declining inventory and short on assets with increasing inventory[26][40][43] - **Evaluation of Models**: The Commodity Term Structure Model is noted for its strong performance, achieving a new high in net value during backtesting. The Time-Series Momentum Model has shown weaker performance recently, while the Cross-Sectional Inventory Model has demonstrated moderate gains[25][35][40] - **Backtesting Results**: - Commodity Term Structure Model: Two-week return of 2.31%, year-to-date return of 7.46%[30][33][34] - Commodity Time-Series Momentum Model: Two-week return of -0.38%, year-to-date return of -3.19%[35][36][39] - Commodity Cross-Sectional Inventory Model: Two-week return of 0.98%, year-to-date return of 5.43%[40][43][44]

Group 1 - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange announced the trading schedule for the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival in 2025, indicating no night trading on September 30, 2025, and a market closure from October 1 to October 8, 2025, with trading resuming on October 9, 2025 [1] Group 2 - Starting from the settlement on September 29, 2025, the margin ratios and price fluctuation limits for various futures contracts will be adjusted, including a 9% fluctuation limit for international copper futures and a 12% limit for crude oil and low-sulfur fuel oil futures [2] - The margin ratio for international copper futures will be set at 10% for hedging positions and 11% for general positions, while crude oil futures will have a 13% margin for hedging and 14% for general positions [2] Group 3 - On October 9, 2025, after the first trading day without a one-sided market, the price fluctuation limits and margin ratios for all futures contracts will revert to their original levels [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - Tianyuan Group (06119.HK) expects a significant decrease in profit attributable to shareholders for the six months ending June 30, 2025, with an anticipated unaudited profit of approximately RMB 4.9 million, down about 60% from approximately RMB 12.3 million in the same period of 2024 [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Financial Performance - The unaudited profit for the upcoming period is projected to be around RMB 4.9 million, a decrease of approximately 60% compared to the previous year's figure of RMB 12.3 million [1] Revenue Drivers - The decline in profit is primarily attributed to a decrease in overall demand, which has led to reduced revenue during the period [1] - Additionally, other income has decreased mainly due to lower gains from crude oil futures contracts compared to the same period last year [1]

Group 1 - The company, Tianyuan Group (06119), expects a significant decrease in unaudited profit attributable to shareholders for the six months ending June 30, 2025, with a projected decline of approximately 60% to around RMB 4.9 million, compared to approximately RMB 12.3 million for the same period in 2024 [1] - The decrease in unaudited profit is primarily attributed to a decline in overall demand, leading to reduced revenue during the period [1] - Additionally, the company experienced a decrease in other income, mainly due to lower gains from crude oil futures trading compared to the same period last year [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant increase in lithium carbonate prices due to supply concerns stemming from the suspension of mining operations in the Jiangxi region, particularly the Jiangxia Wokou mining area, which is expected to impact the overall supply-demand balance in the industry [1][2] - The Jiangxia Wokou mining area, which contributes approximately 10,000 tons per month, accounts for about 12.5% of the domestic lithium carbonate production, and its suspension is anticipated to shift the market from a tight balance to a shortage [1] - The new Mineral Resources Law set to be implemented in 2025 is causing concerns regarding the approval processes for other major mining areas, further exacerbating supply worries in the lithium market [1] Group 2 - On August 11, the domestic futures market saw a general increase, with lithium carbonate contracts hitting the limit up, rising over 8%, while other commodities like industrial silicon and red dates also saw gains exceeding 3% [2] - In contrast, commodities such as eggs, fuel, plywood, crude oil, and urea experienced declines of over 1% [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the sudden escalation and subsequent de-escalation of conflict between Israel and Iran, highlighting the volatility in geopolitical tensions and its impact on global markets [1][2][3] - Following the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, there were immediate reports of renewed missile attacks, indicating a lack of trust and ongoing hostilities despite the ceasefire agreement [2][3] - The U.S. President Trump played a significant role in facilitating the ceasefire, emphasizing that both parties do not wish to escalate the situation further, although the situation remains fragile [2][3] Group 2 - Oil prices experienced fluctuations in response to the geopolitical tensions, with WTI crude oil initially dropping by 5% before narrowing the decline to 2.5% and then expanding to a 3.65% drop [4] - Gold prices also saw a slight decrease, with London gold experiencing a drop of 1.34% [6] - The ETF market saw a net inflow of 497.84 billion yuan, with stock ETFs finally turning to net inflows after several weeks of outflows, indicating a potential recovery in investor sentiment [9][19] Group 3 - The articles indicate a shift in U.S. foreign policy focus under Trump, moving from political alliances with Israel to economic cooperation with Gulf states, suggesting a strategic pivot in the region [7] - Trump's comments on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy reflect concerns over the U.S. economy and the need for monetary easing to address high national debt levels [7][8] - The stock market outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with analysts maintaining a positive view on Chinese equities, projecting potential upward movements in major indices [19]