Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The China Logistics Prosperity Index in October was 50.7%, down 0.5 percentage points month-on-month, with business volume, new orders, and capital turnover indexes in the prosperity range [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will adjust the daily price limit of alumina futures contracts to 7% and the margin ratios for hedging and general positions to 8% and 9% respectively from the settlement on November 7 [2] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange plans to adjust the coking coal delivery quality standards for new listed contracts after the rule release [2] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange will adjust the centralized cancellation date of ferrosilicon and urea varieties in February 2026 to the last trading day of the month [2] - Palm oil inventory is expected to surge 3.5% in October to 2.44 million tons, the highest since October 2023, with production estimated at 1.94 million tons (up 5.6% from the previous month) and exports expected to grow 3.8% to 1.48 million tons [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Hot News - The China Logistics Prosperity Index in October was 50.7%, down 0.5 percentage points month-on-month [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will adjust the daily price limit and margin ratios of alumina futures contracts [2] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange plans to adjust the coking coal delivery quality standards [2] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange will adjust the centralized cancellation date of ferrosilicon and urea varieties in February 2026 [2] - Palm oil inventory, production, and exports are expected to change in October [2] Sector Performance - Key sectors to focus on include urea, lithium carbonate, red dates, PP, and asphalt [3] - Night trading price changes and capital proportions of various commodity futures sectors are presented, with precious metals having a 28.70% increase, followed by non-ferrous metals at 23.34% [3] Sector Positions - The changes in positions of various commodity futures sectors in the past five days are shown [4] Performance of Major Asset Classes - The daily, monthly, and annual price changes of various asset classes, including stocks, bonds, commodities, and others, are presented. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index had a daily decline of 0.41% and an annual increase of 18.15% [5] Stock Market Risk Preference and Major Commodity Trends - Charts show the trends of major commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index, CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, etc., as well as the risk premiums of the stock market [6]

Core Viewpoint - Aluminum oxide futures contracts are not permanent and have a defined validity period, typically one year, requiring users to complete delivery as per contract terms [1] Group 1: Contract Validity - Each aluminum oxide futures contract has a validity period of one year, with contracts issued in July 2024 expiring in July 2025 [1] - Users must complete delivery or close positions by the expiration date, or they may face penalties for defaulting on delivery [1] Group 2: Warehouse Receipt Validity - The standard warehouse receipt for aluminum oxide has a validity period of 180 days, applicable to both warehouse and factory receipts [1] - Warehouse receipts are valid from the earliest production date, with products needing to be stored within 60 days of production [1] - Factory receipts are valid for 180 days from the date of generation [1] Group 3: Receipt Extension Rules - According to the August 2025 business guidelines, aluminum oxide warehouse receipts cannot be extended again after the initial extension [1] - Receipts exceeding their validity period will be forcibly canceled and cannot be used for delivery or further extension [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Alumina**: The market is under pressure due to inventory accumulation and falling spot prices. It is advisable to short at high prices in the medium to long term. The short - term (1 - 3 months) probability of the Guinea Axis mine remaining shut is high, but the long - term risk of permanent closure is uncertain [3]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The fundamentals show sufficient supply and gradually weakening demand. Low inventory and continuous de - stocking support prices in the short term, with a possible short - term upward trend, but a bearish view in the medium term [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cost is strongly supported, but there is an oversupply and expected weakening demand. The futures contract has a BACK structure. Short - term unilateral operations should be cautious, and positive spreads can be considered [5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Alumina - **Price Forecast**: The latest price is 2895 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 2800 - 3200 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 0.4309, and the historical percentile (3 - year) is 0.9309 [2]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: For inventory management with high product inventory, short the main alumina futures contract at 3200 yuan/ton with a 75% hedging ratio; for raw material management with low raw material inventory, long the main alumina futures contract at 2700 yuan/ton with a 50% hedging ratio [2]. - **Core Contradictions**: The Guinea Axis mine has not resumed production, and port inventory shipping is restricted. The market is under pressure due to inventory accumulation and falling spot prices [3]. - **Leveraging Factors**: The Guinea government has revoked some mining licenses [4]. - **Negative Factors**: New production capacity is being put into operation, demand has no growth, profit recovery may lead to the resumption of production by shut - down enterprises, and spot prices have fallen in some areas [4]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Price Forecast**: The latest price is 20250 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 19000 - 20300 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 0.0977, and the historical percentile (3 - year) is 0.4114 [2]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: For inventory management with high product inventory, short the main Shanghai aluminum futures contract at 20100 yuan/ton with a 75% hedging ratio; for raw material management with low raw material inventory, long the main Shanghai aluminum futures contract at 19600 yuan/ton with a 75% hedging ratio [2]. - **Core Contradictions**: Supply is close to the industry ceiling, demand is weakening, and low inventory and continuous de - stocking support prices in the short term [5]. - **Leveraging Factors**: Low inventory and continuous de - stocking, tight spot supply in East China [5][8]. - **Negative Factors**: Terminal factory orders have decreased significantly, downstream operating rates have declined slightly, and there are signs of product inventory accumulation [5]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Forecast**: The latest price is 19400 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 18500 - 19900 yuan/ton [2]. - **Core Contradictions**: The cost is strongly supported by tight scrap aluminum supply, but there is an oversupply and expected weakening demand. The futures contract has a BACK structure [5]. - **Leveraging Factors**: Tight scrap aluminum supply supports costs [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Expected weakening demand and industry over - capacity [5][6]. Market Data - **Price and Spread**: The prices and spreads of various aluminum and alumina contracts are provided, including Shanghai aluminum, London aluminum, and alumina contracts, as well as regional price differences and basis data [7][9][13]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory data of aluminum and alumina, including Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts, London Metal Exchange inventory, and alumina warehouse receipts, are presented [27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum oxide main contract fluctuates weakly, with increasing positions, spot premium, and strengthening basis. Fundamentally, supply may slightly shrink and demand is optimistic. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows double - lines below the 0 - axis with expanding green bars. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a fluctuating manner, controlling rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum main contract fluctuates, with decreasing positions, spot premium, and strengthening basis. Fundamentally, it is in a stage of both supply and demand increasing and inventory steadily decreasing. The option market sentiment is bearish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows double - lines above the 0 - axis with converging green bars. It is also recommended to trade with a light position in a fluctuating manner, controlling rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 19,930 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the closing price of the aluminum oxide futures main contract is 2,563 yuan/ton, down 2,563 yuan. The LME aluminum three - month quotation is 2,434 US dollars/ton, down 3.5 US dollars. The LME aluminum inventory is 419,575 tons, down 2,000 tons [2]. - The difference between this month and next month's contracts for Shanghai aluminum is 70 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; for aluminum oxide, it is 4 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum is 20,020 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the aluminum oxide spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,860 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium/discount is - 10 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - The LME aluminum premium/discount is 19,920 US dollars/ton, up 130 US dollars; the basis for electrolytic aluminum is 90 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the basis for aluminum oxide is 94 yuan/ton, up 96 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The pre - baked anode in the northwest region is 5,890 yuan/ton, unchanged. The national aluminum oxide monthly production is 747.52 million tons, down 3.23 million tons. The monthly demand for aluminum oxide (electrolytic aluminum part) is 723.72 million tons, up 76.70 million tons [2]. - The monthly export volume of aluminum oxide is 30 million tons, up 9 million tons; the monthly import volume is 1.12 million tons, down 3.05 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of primary aluminum is 221,820.89 tons, up 21,622.20 tons; the monthly export volume is 8,699.85 tons, up 5,273.31 tons. The monthly production of aluminum products is 598.17 million tons, down 12.49 million tons [2]. - The monthly export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 51 million tons, up 14 million tons; the monthly production of aluminum alloy is 165.50 million tons, up 10.30 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The monthly automobile production is 3.0446 million vehicles, down 454,000 vehicles. The national real - estate climate index is 93.96, up 0.17 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 18.20%, down 0.04%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 14.30%, down 0.01%. The implied volatility of the main - contract at - the - money IV is 10.58%, down 0.0036. The option put - call ratio is 0.59, down 0.0205 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission will promote the implementation of established policies, including a special consumption - boosting action and using 5 trillion yuan of national - level investment funds this year. A series of measures to stabilize employment and the economy will be introduced one by one [2]. - The central bank will prevent exchange - rate over - adjustment risks, maintain the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, and may cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates and create new structural monetary - policy tools [2]. 3.8 Aluminum Oxide Viewpoint Summary - Due to the low - level operation of the aluminum oxide spot price, some producers' profits are inverted, leading to production cuts or maintenance, and the domestic production is expected to slightly shrink. The electrolytic aluminum plants have good profit conditions and strong production willingness, so the demand for aluminum oxide is optimistic [2]. 3.9 Electrolytic Aluminum Viewpoint Summary - The domestic electrolytic aluminum plants have completed the resumption of production, with high - level operation of production capacity and high operating rates. The cost has slightly decreased, so the supply is stable. The downstream aluminum - product processing enterprises may benefit from domestic - demand expansion policies, and the domestic electrolytic - aluminum social inventory is steadily decreasing [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The alumina market may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and steadily growing demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control trading risks [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum market may be in a situation of both supply and demand increasing. However, the risks caused by export trade obstacles due to the cancellation of domestic aluminum product tax rebates and overseas tariff increases should not be ignored. It is also recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 19,645 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,828 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan [2]. - The main contract positions of Shanghai Aluminum decreased by 2,802 hands to 218,124 hands; the main contract positions of alumina decreased by 13,102 hands to 100,589 hands [2]. - LME aluminum cancelled warrants decreased by 4,825 tons to 185,050 tons; LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,350 tons to 436,975 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 19,800 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,840 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - The basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 155 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the basis of alumina was - 12 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national alumina production in the month was 747.52 tons, down 3.23 tons; the national alumina demand (electrolytic aluminum part) in the month was 647.02 tons, down 64.53 tons [2]. - The national alumina export volume in the month was 21 tons, up 1 ton; the import volume was 4.17 tons, up 0.58 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The national electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 67.10 tons, down 2.60 tons; the total electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,517.20 tons, unchanged [2]. - The national primary aluminum import volume in the month was 200,200.39 tons, up 38,792.39 tons; the export volume was 3,426.54 tons, down 4,973.02 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The national aluminum product production in the month was 598.17 tons, down 12.49 tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 50.60 tons, up 13.60 tons [2]. - The national aluminum alloy production in the month was 155.20 tons, up 10.20 tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 1.75 tons, down 0.06 tons [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum was 18.33%, up 0.21%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 14.09%, up 0.07% [2]. - The implied volatility of the main at - the - money IV was 13.1%, up 0.0026; the option call - put ratio was 0.81, down 0.0232 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In March, US retail sales increased by 1.4% month - on - month, higher than the expected 1.3% [2]. - China's GDP in the first quarter was 318,758 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% [2]. - From January to March, the national real estate development investment was 199.04 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.9% [2]. 3.8 Alumina View Summary - The alumina main contract showed an oscillating trend, with decreasing positions, spot discount, and strengthening basis [2]. - The supply of alumina may slightly converge, and the demand is expected to grow steadily [2]. 3.9 Electrolytic Aluminum View Summary - The Shanghai Aluminum main contract showed an oscillatingly stronger trend, with decreasing positions, spot discount, and weakening basis [2]. - The supply of electrolytic aluminum is steadily increasing, and the demand is also boosted, but export trade risks should be noted [2].