氧化铝期货合约不是永久生效的。 此外，根据2025年8月版的业务细则，氧化铝期货仓单展期后不能再次展期。一旦仓单超过有效期，将 被强制注销，不能继续用于交割或展期。 氧化铝期货合约的标准仓单有效期为180天。无论是仓库标准仓单还是厂库标准仓单，其有效期均为180 天。仓库仓单的有效期从产品最早生产日期起算，且产品必须在生产日期后60天内入库；厂库仓单则从 生成之日起算180天。 氧化铝每一个期货合约都有对应的有效时间，一般情况下，氧化铝期货合约的有效时间为一年，即当前 2024年7月发布的氧化铝期货合约，到期时间是2025年7月份，而在合约到期时，用户需要根据合约规 定，将合约完成交割，未按规定完成交割或者平仓的用户，也会被交易所视为违约交割，可能会被进行 罚款。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Alumina**: The market is under pressure due to inventory accumulation and falling spot prices. It is advisable to short at high prices in the medium to long term. The short - term (1 - 3 months) probability of the Guinea Axis mine remaining shut is high, but the long - term risk of permanent closure is uncertain [3]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The fundamentals show sufficient supply and gradually weakening demand. Low inventory and continuous de - stocking support prices in the short term, with a possible short - term upward trend, but a bearish view in the medium term [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cost is strongly supported, but there is an oversupply and expected weakening demand. The futures contract has a BACK structure. Short - term unilateral operations should be cautious, and positive spreads can be considered [5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Alumina - **Price Forecast**: The latest price is 2895 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 2800 - 3200 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 0.4309, and the historical percentile (3 - year) is 0.9309 [2]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: For inventory management with high product inventory, short the main alumina futures contract at 3200 yuan/ton with a 75% hedging ratio; for raw material management with low raw material inventory, long the main alumina futures contract at 2700 yuan/ton with a 50% hedging ratio [2]. - **Core Contradictions**: The Guinea Axis mine has not resumed production, and port inventory shipping is restricted. The market is under pressure due to inventory accumulation and falling spot prices [3]. - **Leveraging Factors**: The Guinea government has revoked some mining licenses [4]. - **Negative Factors**: New production capacity is being put into operation, demand has no growth, profit recovery may lead to the resumption of production by shut - down enterprises, and spot prices have fallen in some areas [4]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Price Forecast**: The latest price is 20250 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 19000 - 20300 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 0.0977, and the historical percentile (3 - year) is 0.4114 [2]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: For inventory management with high product inventory, short the main Shanghai aluminum futures contract at 20100 yuan/ton with a 75% hedging ratio; for raw material management with low raw material inventory, long the main Shanghai aluminum futures contract at 19600 yuan/ton with a 75% hedging ratio [2]. - **Core Contradictions**: Supply is close to the industry ceiling, demand is weakening, and low inventory and continuous de - stocking support prices in the short term [5]. - **Leveraging Factors**: Low inventory and continuous de - stocking, tight spot supply in East China [5][8]. - **Negative Factors**: Terminal factory orders have decreased significantly, downstream operating rates have declined slightly, and there are signs of product inventory accumulation [5]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Forecast**: The latest price is 19400 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 18500 - 19900 yuan/ton [2]. - **Core Contradictions**: The cost is strongly supported by tight scrap aluminum supply, but there is an oversupply and expected weakening demand. The futures contract has a BACK structure [5]. - **Leveraging Factors**: Tight scrap aluminum supply supports costs [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Expected weakening demand and industry over - capacity [5][6]. Market Data - **Price and Spread**: The prices and spreads of various aluminum and alumina contracts are provided, including Shanghai aluminum, London aluminum, and alumina contracts, as well as regional price differences and basis data [7][9][13]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory data of aluminum and alumina, including Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts, London Metal Exchange inventory, and alumina warehouse receipts, are presented [27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum oxide main contract fluctuates weakly, with increasing positions, spot premium, and strengthening basis. Fundamentally, supply may slightly shrink and demand is optimistic. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows double - lines below the 0 - axis with expanding green bars. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a fluctuating manner, controlling rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum main contract fluctuates, with decreasing positions, spot premium, and strengthening basis. Fundamentally, it is in a stage of both supply and demand increasing and inventory steadily decreasing. The option market sentiment is bearish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows double - lines above the 0 - axis with converging green bars. It is also recommended to trade with a light position in a fluctuating manner, controlling rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 19,930 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the closing price of the aluminum oxide futures main contract is 2,563 yuan/ton, down 2,563 yuan. The LME aluminum three - month quotation is 2,434 US dollars/ton, down 3.5 US dollars. The LME aluminum inventory is 419,575 tons, down 2,000 tons [2]. - The difference between this month and next month's contracts for Shanghai aluminum is 70 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; for aluminum oxide, it is 4 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum is 20,020 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the aluminum oxide spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,860 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium/discount is - 10 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - The LME aluminum premium/discount is 19,920 US dollars/ton, up 130 US dollars; the basis for electrolytic aluminum is 90 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the basis for aluminum oxide is 94 yuan/ton, up 96 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The pre - baked anode in the northwest region is 5,890 yuan/ton, unchanged. The national aluminum oxide monthly production is 747.52 million tons, down 3.23 million tons. The monthly demand for aluminum oxide (electrolytic aluminum part) is 723.72 million tons, up 76.70 million tons [2]. - The monthly export volume of aluminum oxide is 30 million tons, up 9 million tons; the monthly import volume is 1.12 million tons, down 3.05 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of primary aluminum is 221,820.89 tons, up 21,622.20 tons; the monthly export volume is 8,699.85 tons, up 5,273.31 tons. The monthly production of aluminum products is 598.17 million tons, down 12.49 million tons [2]. - The monthly export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 51 million tons, up 14 million tons; the monthly production of aluminum alloy is 165.50 million tons, up 10.30 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The monthly automobile production is 3.0446 million vehicles, down 454,000 vehicles. The national real - estate climate index is 93.96, up 0.17 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 18.20%, down 0.04%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 14.30%, down 0.01%. The implied volatility of the main - contract at - the - money IV is 10.58%, down 0.0036. The option put - call ratio is 0.59, down 0.0205 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission will promote the implementation of established policies, including a special consumption - boosting action and using 5 trillion yuan of national - level investment funds this year. A series of measures to stabilize employment and the economy will be introduced one by one [2]. - The central bank will prevent exchange - rate over - adjustment risks, maintain the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, and may cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates and create new structural monetary - policy tools [2]. 3.8 Aluminum Oxide Viewpoint Summary - Due to the low - level operation of the aluminum oxide spot price, some producers' profits are inverted, leading to production cuts or maintenance, and the domestic production is expected to slightly shrink. The electrolytic aluminum plants have good profit conditions and strong production willingness, so the demand for aluminum oxide is optimistic [2]. 3.9 Electrolytic Aluminum Viewpoint Summary - The domestic electrolytic aluminum plants have completed the resumption of production, with high - level operation of production capacity and high operating rates. The cost has slightly decreased, so the supply is stable. The downstream aluminum - product processing enterprises may benefit from domestic - demand expansion policies, and the domestic electrolytic - aluminum social inventory is steadily decreasing [2].

铝类产业日报 2025/4/17 撰写人：王福辉 从业资格证号：F03123381 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0019878 | | 撰写人：王福辉 从业资格证号：F03123381 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0019878 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 19,645.00 | +100.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 2,828.00 | +13.00↑ | | | 本月-下月合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 50.00 | +15.00↑ 本月-下月合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | 0.00 | +2.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 218,124.00 | -2802.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 100,589.00 | -13102.00↓ | | 期货市场 | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 185,050.00 | -4825.00↓ 库存:氧化铝:合 ...