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游戏产业跟踪(19):新游及行业密集催化,游戏板块持续推荐
Changjiang Securities· 2026-01-11 11:45
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [7] Core Insights - The new game cycle in January continues with several products like "Duck Duck Goose" and "Heart Town" launching successfully. The trend of Chinese games going overseas remains strong, with leading companies like Dd and others showing impressive performance. The industry is expected to see a series of new game launches, leading to continuous catalysts [2][4] - The gaming sector's product cycle in 2026 shows strong sustainability and performance certainty, indicating room for valuation improvement. It is recommended to continue focusing on investment opportunities in the gaming sector, with relevant companies including Giant Network, Kaiying Network, Perfect World, 37 Interactive, G-bits, Yaoji Technology, Shengtian Network, Tencent Holdings, and Xindong Company [2][4] Summary by Sections New Game Launches - The January new game cycle has seen successful launches, including "Duck Duck Goose," which has gained significant popularity, and "Heart Town," which topped the global free charts in over 50 regions during its pre-download phase [2][4] - The performance of these new games validates the importance of global expansion and social interaction as growth engines in the gaming industry, with a strategy of "evergreen games + globalization" becoming key for leading companies [10] Overseas Market Performance - The overseas gaming market continues to thrive, with Dd's "Whiteout Survival" achieving over $4 billion in global revenue by December 2025. Other games like "Tasty Travels: Merge Game" and "Truck Star" have also shown strong performance in the overseas market [10] Future Game Releases - Upcoming game releases include Tencent's "Counter-Strike: Future" on January 13, "Rock Kingdom: World" on March 26, and several others from various companies, indicating a busy launch schedule that may catalyze further industry growth [10]
国泰海通:AI应用加速发展叠加文化娱乐板块周期向上 关注游戏、影视等板块表现
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-23 22:33
Core Insights - The media industry is at a critical juncture with the accelerated development of AI applications and an upward cycle in the entertainment sector, with strong performance expected in 2025 and continued strength in 2026 due to product and policy resonance [1][2] AI Applications - The issuance of the "Opinions on Deepening the Implementation of 'Artificial Intelligence+'" by the State Council in August 2025 marks AI's elevation to a national strategic level, potentially creating new ecosystems, scenarios, and businesses similar to the "Internet+" trend [3] - Domestic IPs like "Nezha" and "Black Myth: Wukong" are not only popular in China but are also gaining global traction, showcasing the vitality of entertainment content from the internet era [3] Industry Performance - The media index saw a maximum increase of over 40% within the year, with the gaming sector leading the charge, achieving a maximum increase of 98.45% [2] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the media industry reported a robust total operating income, with net profit attributable to shareholders growing nearly 40% year-on-year, driven primarily by the gaming sector, which saw a net profit increase of nearly 90% [2] Policy Impact - The introduction of new policies by the National Radio and Television Administration in August aims to promote innovation in the entertainment industry, injecting new vitality into content creation [3] - Following several years of a "cold winter" in the film and television sector, the gradual removal or adjustment of existing regulatory policies is expected to lead to a reversal in both policy and performance for the entertainment industry [4] Future Outlook - The launch of multiple new games in 2025 has shown high traffic and revenue, which is expected to continue into 2026, with upcoming titles like "Honor of Kings World," "Yihuan," and "Famous Generals Kill" generating anticipation in the gaming market [4] - The company recommends focusing on sectors such as gaming, film, AI applications, and IPs based on the development of AI and the upward cycle of the cultural entertainment sector [5]
游戏产业跟踪(16):11月游戏版号发放再创新高,关注新游周期下的板块投资机会
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-19 11:53
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Insights - In November, the issuance of game licenses reached a new high, with 184 licenses granted, including 178 domestic and 6 imported games, surpassing the previous record since the resumption of license issuance in 2022 [10][11] - Major self-developed games from leading companies continue to perform well overseas, with Point Point Interactive's "Whiteout Survival" and "Kingshot" ranking first and second in the November overseas mobile game revenue chart [10][11] - A new product cycle is approaching as key new games from listed companies are set to launch, with significant titles scheduled for testing and release in December [6][10] Summary by Sections Game License Issuance - In November, a total of 184 game licenses were issued, setting a new monthly record for domestic licenses, with notable approvals for games from Perfect World, Kaixin, and Bilibili [10][11] - Year-to-date, 1,532 domestic game licenses have been issued, exceeding the total of 1,306 for the entire year of 2024 [10] Overseas Performance - The overseas performance of top self-developed games remains strong, with "Whiteout Survival" achieving over $3.8 billion in cumulative revenue and "Kingshot" exceeding $640 million [10][11] - The casual merge game "Tasty Travels: Merge Game" saw a 10% revenue increase in November, ranking fourth in the global merge game revenue chart [10] Upcoming Game Releases - Key new games from listed companies are set to launch, including Giant Network's "Famous General Kill" on December 19 and G-bits' "Nine Muxi" on December 18 [6][10] - Other notable upcoming titles include Tencent's "Counter-Strike: Future" scheduled for January 13, 2026, with over 25 million pre-registrations [6][10]
游戏行业深度汇报:游戏现在买什么?
2025-12-11 02:16
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The gaming sector's valuation has reached a lower limit of 15 times, with expectations of maintaining high prosperity and performance growth certainty through 2026, making it an attractive investment opportunity [1][3][25] - The A-share market recommends a "3+2" combination: Giant Network, Kaiying Network, and Century Huatong as stable fundamentals; Gibit and 37 Interactive are positioned lower but showing recent improvements [1][4] Company-Specific Insights Tencent - Expected to launch multiple mid-sized new games in 2026, with a diverse range of genres [7] - Notable titles include "Under One Person," "Rock Kingdom World," and "Monster Hunter Traveler" [7] NetEase - Anticipates additional revenue of 2-3 billion from international IP adaptations and domestic MMO games [2][24] - Key upcoming titles include "Forgotten Sea" and "Infinite," with the former developed by the team behind "Identity V" [7][24] Giant Network - "Famous General Kill" is expected to contribute 200-300 million in profit, with "Supernatural Action Group" potentially increasing annual revenue to 7-8 billion if successful during the Spring Festival [10][12] Kaiying Network - The "Legend Box" platform is driving growth, with DAU expected to reach 650,000 to 700,000 by the end of 2026, and annual advertising revenue projected at around 2.4 billion [10][13] Bilibili - Strong growth in advertising business, with expectations to outperform the overall internet advertising growth rate [21] - Anticipated game revenue growth in the low double digits, with "Three Kingdoms Hundred Generals Card" projected to generate 1-1.5 billion [21] Gibit - Recent performance impacted by a decline in revenue from "Sword of the World," but new game "Nine Mu of the Wild" expected to contribute 1-1.5 billion [19][20] Heart Company - Facing stock price pressure but has potential due to rapid progress in programmatic advertising, with profits expected to reach 150-200 million in 2026 [22] Market Trends and Predictions - The gaming sector is expected to maintain strong growth certainty compared to other sectors, with a focus on identifying high-certainty investment targets [25] - The first quarter of 2026 is anticipated to be stable, with significant product launches concentrated in the summer [11][25] Additional Insights - The competitive landscape is expected to increase in 2026, but companies will focus on their strengths without excessive suppression of smaller firms [11] - The overall sentiment is optimistic for the gaming industry, with a recommendation for investors to strategically select stocks based on performance certainty and market conditions [25]
巨人网络(002558):《超自然》表现强势,递延收入高增,看好公司Q4利润释放
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-01 23:45
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company reported strong performance in Q3 2025, achieving revenue of 1.706 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 115.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 640 million yuan, up 81.2% year-on-year [3][10]. - The success of the game "Supernatural Action Group" significantly contributed to revenue growth, and the company anticipates continued profit release in Q4 2025 [10]. - The company is optimistic about the long-term potential and overseas expansion of "Supernatural Action Group," along with the ongoing development of new games [10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.706 billion yuan, a 115.6% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 640 million yuan, reflecting an 81.2% year-on-year growth [3][10]. - The deferred revenue increased significantly, with contract liabilities reaching 1.33 billion yuan as of September 30, 2025, compared to 890 million yuan on June 30, 2025, and 490 million yuan in the same period of the previous year [10]. Game Performance and Development - "Supernatural Action Group" was the main contributor to revenue growth in Q3, with strong performance noted during the traditionally slower months of September and October [10]. - The company plans to launch versions of "Supernatural Action Group" in Hong Kong, Macau, and overseas markets, which is expected to drive significant incremental revenue [10]. - New games such as "Famous Generals Kill," "Five Thousand Years," and "Pocket Fighting" are in continuous development, with recent testing phases initiated [10]. Cost and Profitability - The company's gross margin improved to 90.5% in Q3 2025, driven by the increased contribution from self-developed products [10]. - Sales expenses rose to 630 million yuan in Q3, with a slight increase in the sales expense ratio to 36.6% [10]. - Research and development expenses also saw a significant increase, although the R&D expense ratio decreased compared to previous quarters [10].
巨人网络(002558)2025年三季报点评:《超自然行动组》流水表现亮眼 游戏收入递延周期影响业绩释放
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-30 12:37
Core Insights - The company reported stable revenue and profit growth for the first three quarters of 2025, with a revenue of 3.368 billion yuan, up 51.84% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.417 billion yuan, up 32.31% year-on-year [1] - The game "Supernatural Action Group" has shown strong performance in Q3 2025, with significant user growth and revenue increase driven by new content and collaborations [2] - The company maintains a robust product pipeline and has a positive earnings forecast for 2025-2027, with an expected EPS of 1.16, 1.84, and 2.11 yuan for the respective years [3] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.368 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 51.84% [1] - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.706 billion yuan, up 115.63% year-on-year, and a net profit of 640 million yuan, up 81.19% year-on-year [1] - The company's contract liabilities reached 1.333 billion yuan by the end of Q3 2025, an increase of 440 million yuan from Q2, primarily due to adjustments in the game revenue deferral period [1] Game Performance and Product Pipeline - "Supernatural Action Group" has rapidly gained popularity with over 1 million concurrent players in July 2025, supported by new maps and collaborations with popular IPs [2] - The company has successfully launched new products in the casual gaming sector, with "Original Journey" achieving over 20 million new users in the first half of the year [2] - The company has a strong product reserve, including the card strategy game "Famous Generals Kill," which has received a license, and the SLG product "Five Thousand Years," which is in the testing phase [2] Investment Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a strong performance in the "Journey" IP sector, with the "Supernatural Action Group" exceeding revenue expectations and a solid product pipeline [3] - The projected PE ratios for 2025-2027 are 31, 19, and 17 times, respectively, indicating a favorable investment outlook [3]
巨人网络(002558):《超自然行动组》流水表现亮眼,游戏收入递延周期影响业绩释放
Guoyuan Securities· 2025-10-30 10:51
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected EPS for 2025-2027 at 1.16, 1.84, and 2.11 CNY respectively, and corresponding PE ratios of 31, 19, and 17x [3] Core Insights - The company reported a stable growth in revenue and profit, with a significant year-on-year increase in revenue of 51.84% to 3.368 billion CNY and a net profit increase of 32.31% to 1.417 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2025 [1] - The game "Supernatural Action Team" has shown strong performance, with a peak of over 1 million concurrent users and significant revenue growth driven by new content and collaborations with popular IPs [2] - The company has adjusted its game revenue deferral cycle, leading to an increase in contract liabilities to 1.333 billion CNY by the end of Q3 2025, reflecting a strategic shift in revenue recognition [1] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.706 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 115.63%, and a net profit of 640 million CNY, up 81.19% [1] - The expense ratios for sales, management, and R&D for the first three quarters of 2025 were 36.23%, 4.78%, and 21.27% respectively, with sales expenses increasing due to higher advertising and channel costs [1] - The company’s financial forecasts indicate a revenue of 5.211 billion CNY for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 78.30% [5]
传媒互联网行业2025半年报综述:行业持续修复,板块加速分化
2025-09-17 00:50
Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **media and internet industry** in 2025, highlighting ongoing recovery and accelerated differentiation within the sector [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments Game Sector Performance - The **game sector** showed remarkable performance in the first half of 2025, with mobile game revenue growth nearing **20%**, driven by increased game license approvals and a new game cycle [1][2][3]. - **Huatuo** reported a **26%** year-on-year growth for its product **Kingsoft**, achieving nearly **$100 million** in revenue. Despite initial performance drag from the domestic version "Dream Kingdom," the company expects a profit of **27 billion RMB** in 2025 and **80-100 billion RMB** in 2026, indicating a two-year compound growth rate of **100%** [1][5]. - **Giant Network** plans to launch new games "Famous General Kill" and "Five Thousand Years" in Q4, with existing product "Supernatural" expected to generate **22-23 billion RMB** in revenue for the year, potentially reaching **35-40 billion RMB** next year [1][5]. Revenue and Orders - The company signed three orders in July and August totaling **4.5 billion RMB**, surpassing half of last year's total revenue, indicating significant progress in integrating **Legend Box** [1][7]. - The **open-world game** from **Perfect World** is anticipated to launch in Q1 2026, with a potential annual revenue of **50 billion RMB**, which could significantly boost next year's performance [1][9][10]. Policy and Market Dynamics - The increase in game license approvals has synchronized market demand and supply growth. The new game cycle began in late May or June, with expectations for acceleration in Q3 [4]. - The **21 policies** from the broadcasting authority are beneficial for platform and production sides, with **Mango Super Media** being a key beneficiary due to improved advertising performance [12]. Other Notable Companies - **Kain** and **Perfect World** are also recommended for long-term investment, with Kain's IP games "Tomb Raider" and "Douluo" expected to launch next year [6]. - **Xindong**'s upcoming domestic version of "Ys" is seen as a significant growth factor, with the company achieving unexpected growth due to increased game licenses and AI integration [11]. Advertising and AI Integration - **Kuaishou** is rapidly developing in the AI video sector, enhancing marketing efficiency and reducing costs, making it a recommended company [13]. - **Dianzi Media** achieved an **18%** growth in Q2, driven by effective integration and new initiatives, with future revenue expectations significantly raised [14]. - **Yidian Tianxia** reported over **30%** revenue growth in Q2, with programmatic advertising growing by **60%** and operating profit increasing by **95%** [15]. Film and Publishing Sectors - The **film industry** is performing well, with box office revenues exceeding **400 billion RMB** this year, indicating a strong recovery [16]. - The **publishing sector** is seeing stable growth, particularly in IP-based publications, with companies like **Guomai Culture** and **Rongxin Culture** showing significant potential [17]. Conclusion - The media and internet industry is experiencing a robust recovery, particularly in the gaming sector, with several companies poised for significant growth driven by new product launches and favorable policies. Investors are encouraged to monitor key players and emerging opportunities within this dynamic landscape.
中信建投:看好游戏全年主线推荐
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-08 00:29
Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities expresses optimism about the gaming sector for the entire year, driven by improved earnings per share (EPS) adjustments, high market sentiment, and enhanced industry structure [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The gaming industry is expected to see a significant boost in Q3, particularly due to the summer revenue surge [1] - Upcoming game releases from major companies such as Tencent, Giant Network, G-bits, Xindong, and Perfect World are anticipated to contribute positively to the market [1] Group 2: Financial Outlook - The gaming sector has experienced cost savings this year, indicating potential for profit upgrades [1]
巨人网络20250907
2025-09-07 16:19
Summary of the Conference Call for Giant Network Company Overview - **Company**: Giant Network - **Key Game**: Supernatural Action Group Industry Insights - The gaming industry is expected to see a revival in 2025, with the domestic self-developed game market projected to grow nearly 20% [doc id='2'][doc id='26'] - The overall gaming market is becoming more resilient, with increased total playtime and user spending [doc id='26'][doc id='27'] - The supply side of the gaming industry has seen a significant increase in the number of game licenses issued, rising from over 80 per month in 2023 to 166 in August 2025 [doc id='28'] Key Points on Supernatural Action Group - The game has maintained strong revenue performance due to frequent skin updates and IP collaborations, with expected revenue of 4-5 billion CNY in September 2025 [doc id='2'][doc id='3'] - The user base is expanding to include male players, similar to the model of Pop Mart, which could further enhance market reach [doc id='2'][doc id='4'] - The game is projected to achieve an annual revenue of 30-40 billion CNY in 2026, with a profit margin of 40%-50% [doc id='2'][doc id='10'] - Marketing expenses are focused on high ROI content and brand investments, rather than broad advertising [doc id='11'] Financial Performance and Projections - Giant Network's stable core business includes the Journey series, which contributes approximately 30 billion CNY annually, and other games like Ball Battle and Space Kill, expected to contribute 16-17 billion CNY [doc id='12'][doc id='13'] - The company’s profit forecast for next year is between 35 billion to 40 billion CNY, with a potential market capitalization of 1 trillion CNY if valued at 25 times earnings [doc id='13'][doc id='24'] - The third quarter is expected to show significant growth, with profits potentially doubling from the second quarter [doc id='24] Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape is shifting, with large companies focusing on optimizing existing games rather than launching new blockbuster titles, creating opportunities for mid-sized companies like Giant Network [doc id='29] - The gaming industry is experiencing a self-optimization phase, with companies refining their teams and project pipelines to improve success rates [doc id='31'][doc id='32'] AI and Marketing Trends - AI has been integrated into game development processes, enhancing productivity without leading to significant layoffs [doc id='34'] - Sales expense ratios are decreasing due to a shift from traditional advertising to more effective content and community marketing strategies [doc id='33'] Investment Recommendations - Recommended investments include Giant Network and ST Huatuo, with projected market capitalizations of 1.2 trillion CNY and 1.5 trillion CNY respectively [doc id='36]