中经记者 李哲 北京报道 春节档一直是游戏厂商的"必争之地"。2026年春节期间，各大厂商通过与文旅、春晚联动等方式展开竞 逐，让游戏走出屏幕，更加多元化、立体化与玩家见面。 不过，相比花样百出的联动方式，从收入方面来看，整体市场表现并不突出。根据Sensor Tower数据， 2026年春节档游戏iOS端收入约为4.4亿美元，与去年同期基本持平。 游戏产业时评人张书乐向《中国经营报》记者表示，春节档本身就有"休假"意味，玩家休假，大厂也在 休假，因此在1月新游集中发布后，大多数游戏都进入休假期，只是通过春节档活动来进行日常维护。 这和暑期档的高强度维护形成了差异性。 厂商花式联动 2月15日，腾讯旗下《王者荣耀》在春节假期第一天推出了马年"皮肤"，随后便迅速冲上iOS畅销榜总 榜，并且因服务器宕机登上了各大社交平台热搜。 此外，腾讯旗下另一款游戏大作《和平精英》则在春节版本推出了以敦煌文化为载体的新地图，并上线 了一系列符合新春氛围的活动，包括"月牙泉许愿打卡""年兽大作战"等。这一系列的联动让《和平精 英》在除夕夜的日活跃用户数突破9000万。 春节假期的"团圆"特性，成为了派对类游戏施展的舞台。网易旗下 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company's 4Q25 Non-GAAP net profit fell short of both internal and market expectations, primarily due to higher-than-expected investment losses and lower revenue recognition from deferred income [1][2] Performance Review - 4Q25 revenue increased by 3% year-on-year to 27.5 billion yuan, below the expected 28.5 billion yuan, attributed to a slower-than-expected recognition of deferred income [1] - Non-GAAP net profit decreased by 27% year-on-year to 7.1 billion yuan, also below the expected 8.25 billion yuan, mainly due to investment losses exceeding expectations by approximately 1.07 billion yuan [1][2] - Gross margin improved to 64.2%, indicating effective cost control by the company [2] Development Trends - Deferred income saw a net increase of 1.04 billion yuan in 4Q25, better than market expectations, suggesting potential revenue release in the future [1] - The new game "Forgotten Sea" is expected to launch in 3Q26, with positive market feedback on gameplay and art style [1] - The game "Yanyun Sixteen Sounds" has over 80 million players globally as of the 4Q25 earnings release [1] Financial Policies - The company declared a dividend of $1.16 per ADS for 4Q25, with a dividend payout ratio of 83%, maintaining a stable shareholder return policy [2] - The share repurchase plan has been extended to January 2029, with approximately $2 billion repurchased by the end of 2025 [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for 2026 Non-GAAP net profit has been revised down by 4% to 40.9 billion yuan, while the 2027 forecast remains unchanged [2] - Current stock prices correspond to 14x and 12x Non-GAAP P/E for 2026 and 2027, respectively, indicating an upside potential of 36% for Hong Kong stocks and 38% for U.S. stocks [2]

Core Viewpoint - NetEase's Q4 2025 performance fell short of expectations, with revenue growing 3% year-on-year to 27.5 billion yuan and non-GAAP net profit declining significantly by 27% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Revenue for Q4 2025 reached 27.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 3% year-on-year increase [1] - Non-GAAP net profit experienced a substantial decline of 27% [1] Group 2: Analyst Rating and Price Target - Despite the disappointing performance, the firm maintains a "Buy" rating for NetEase [1] - The target price has been adjusted down from 276 HKD to 250 HKD [1] Group 3: Future Prospects - The company has promising game reserves that are expected to drive the next phase of global growth [1] - The highly anticipated game "Forgotten Sea" is scheduled for official release in Q3 2026, with technical testing having started on February 5, showing encouraging player engagement [1] - The second promotional trailer for "Forgotten Sea" garnered over 10 million views shortly after its release, indicating strong market interest and attention [1] - Another large-budget urban open-world project, "Infinity," is also in steady development [1]

Core Viewpoint - NetEase's Q4 performance showed a 3% year-on-year revenue growth to 27.5 billion yuan, which was 4% lower than market expectations, primarily due to slower-than-expected growth in gaming revenue and extended revenue recognition cycles [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Total revenue for NetEase reached 27.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 3% year-on-year increase [1] - Operating profit increased by 6% year-on-year to 8.3 billion yuan, which was 6% below consensus expectations [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The company remains optimistic about revenue growth prospects for the current year, supported by a strong 34% year-on-year increase in contract liabilities at the end of last year [1] - Several major new products are expected to launch this year, including "The Sea of Forgetfulness" [1] Group 3: Valuation Adjustments - The revenue forecasts for the next two years have been slightly reduced by 1% to 2% due to the extended revenue recognition cycle [1] - Based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, the target price for NetEase's U.S. stock has been slightly lowered from $164 to $161.5, while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that NetEase's revenue and operating profit for Q4 2025 are projected to be 5% lower than market consensus, with adjusted net profit expected to be 23% below consensus due to investment losses [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - NetEase's deferred revenue shows strong growth of 34% [1] - The company's current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected at 13.5 times for the next 12 months, which is approximately 0.7 standard deviations below its historical average [1] - UBS believes that historically low P/E ratios often correspond to regulatory or product cycle troughs, but NetEase is not in a similar situation, indicating limited downside potential for the stock price [1] Group 2: Positive Catalysts - Future positive catalysts are expected from the official progress of the dual primary listing plan and the launch of the new game "Forgotten Sea" in Q3 2026 [1] - UBS slightly lowers the target price for NetEase's U.S. stock from $185 to $180 and adjusts the target price for its Hong Kong stock to HKD 280.8, which corresponds to a projected P/E of 21 times for 2026 [1] - UBS maintains a "Buy" rating for NetEase [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC maintains the 2027 Non-GAAP net profit forecast for NetEase-S (09999), with target prices set at HKD 265 and USD 171, indicating an upside potential of 36% and 38% for Hong Kong and US stocks respectively [1] Group 1: Revenue and Growth - Quarterly deferred revenue shows high growth, with a net increase of CNY 1.04 billion in Q4 2025, better than market expectations, indicating potential revenue release in the future [2] - Revenue from games and related value-added services increased by 3% year-on-year in Q4 2025, driven by stable operations of long-standing IPs like "Fantasy Westward Journey" and contributions from new titles [2] - Youdao's revenue grew by 17%, reflecting the effective implementation of its AI-driven strategy, while Cloud Music's revenue increased steadily by 5% [2] Group 2: Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin improved to 64.2% in Q4 2025, demonstrating the company's cost control capabilities [3] - The absolute amount of operating expenses met expectations, with the sales expense ratio rising to 14%, aligning with the overall marketing investment strategy [3] Group 3: Shareholder Returns - The dividend for Q4 2025 was USD 1.16 per ADS, with a dividend payout ratio of 83%, maintaining an annual dividend ratio of around 40% [4] - The company has extended its share repurchase program (up to USD 5 billion) until January 2029, having repurchased approximately USD 2 billion by the end of 2025 [4]

Core Insights - NetEase reported Q4 revenue of RMB 27.5 billion and annual revenue of RMB 112.6 billion, highlighting its strategic focus on AI technology, overseas market expansion, and long-term game operations during the earnings call [1] AI Technology Application - NetEase aims to become the "most knowledgeable AI expert in gaming," with AI-native gameplay already implemented in several flagship products. The management noted that while AI lowers the entry barrier for game development, it raises the success threshold for top-tier products, shifting the core barrier from mere production capacity to integration capability [2][3] - The company plans to maintain high investment in vertical models, AI-native gameplay, and talent development, emphasizing that high-quality private data is more critical than computing power in vertical fields [2] Overseas Market Expansion - The success of "Yan Yun Shi Liu Sheng" in overseas markets validates NetEase's ability to express Chinese stories internationally. The game reached the second position on Steam's global sales chart and topped the iOS download charts in over 60 markets, with global users exceeding 80 million [4] - The management expressed confidence in cultivating high-quality creative talent in China, which has the largest pool of game development professionals globally [4] Long-term Game Operations - NetEase demonstrated strong long-term operational capabilities, with "Dream of Dreams" PC version achieving record quarterly revenue in its 23rd year. The successful launch of the "Chuang Wan" server provided new insights for long-term game operations [5] - The management outlined three key strategies for revitalizing long-standing games: restoring classic gameplay, restructuring the economic system while maintaining free trade, and optimizing the overall experience [5] Upcoming Products - Anticipated releases include "Forgotten Sea," expected to launch in Q3, and "Infinite," which has met testing expectations. Both products aim for global simultaneous release across multiple platforms [6] - The management highlighted the potential in the auto-chess genre, planning to create a unique game based on Chinese mythology, emphasizing strong narrative and aesthetic elements [7]

Core Insights - The game "Forgotten Sea" challenges conventional gaming logic with its unique narrative and gameplay design, emphasizing a "ocean logic" that contrasts with traditional "continent logic" [5][12][41] - The game aims to provide a sense of freedom and exploration, appealing to younger players who seek emotional value and a break from linear experiences [20][35][41] Group 1: Game Design and Narrative - "Forgotten Sea" features a fragmented and abstract narrative structure that may initially confuse players accustomed to strong guidance [5][16] - The game employs a "puppet" aesthetic to create a whimsical atmosphere, distancing players from the weight of traditional RPG narratives [12][14] - The narrative revolves around themes of memory and freedom, allowing players to experience stories as observers rather than active participants [18][20] Group 2: Gameplay Mechanics - The game introduces a high tolerance for failure, allowing players up to 30 retries before facing permanent consequences, which encourages exploration [23] - A dynamic pricing system and resource categorization enhance the gameplay experience, linking effort to tangible rewards [25][27] - The incorporation of randomness through dice mechanics adds variability to combat and exploration, enhancing player engagement [27][29] Group 3: Market Positioning and Strategy - "Forgotten Sea" represents a strategic move by NetEase to differentiate itself in the gaming market by offering a product that prioritizes emotional engagement over traditional commercial efficiency [41][42] - The game is positioned as a response to player fatigue with conventional gaming experiences, betting on the appeal of freedom and romance in gameplay [41][42] - The development team’s focus on high-quality production values reflects a commitment to creating an immersive experience that encourages players to slow down and appreciate the game world [38][40]

Core Insights - The gaming industry is witnessing a significant influx of new titles, with 124 games either launched or in testing in Q1 2026, of which 84.7% have obtained approval numbers [1][44] - A notable trend is the migration of 21 games from the Steam platform to mobile, indicating a shift towards innovative gameplay and artistic styles that may rejuvenate the mobile gaming market [1][44] - Several new games have shown promising market performance, including "Survival 33 Days," "Crazy Water World," "Goose Duck," "Counterattack: Future," and "Arknights: End of the World," which have all achieved strong rankings in various app stores [6][10][15][17] Game Launches and Performance - Five standout games have performed well at the start of 2026, with "Survival 33 Days" leading the charge, achieving top rankings on both WeChat and Douyin mini-game platforms shortly after launch [6][8] - "Crazy Water World," a survival simulation game, has also maintained a strong presence in the top 10 of mini-game rankings and is showing upward momentum in the iOS charts [10][11] - "Goose Duck," a social deduction game, has rapidly gained a large user base, surpassing 1 million users within six days of its mobile launch [13] - "Counterattack: Future," a PvE shooter, has successfully positioned itself within the top 20 of the iOS game rankings shortly after its release [15] - "Arknights: End of the World," a strategy RPG, has also made a strong debut, reaching the top ranks in the iOS charts [17] Upcoming Titles and Trends - The upcoming quarter is set to feature several high-potential titles, including Tencent's "Kingdom of Rock," NetEase's "Forgotten Sea," and FunPlus's "Imo," all of which are expected to enter testing soon [19][30] - The trend of porting games from PC to mobile is gaining traction, with complex genres like SOC and Roguelike also being adapted for mobile platforms, indicating a broader acceptance of diverse gameplay styles in the mobile market [44][48] - The industry is experiencing a renewed sense of optimism, with the potential for quality products to thrive despite challenges, suggesting a possible turnaround in market sentiment [47]

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to see a 7% year-on-year revenue increase in Q4 2025, reaching 28.5 billion yuan, while Non-GAAP net profit is projected to decline by 15% to 8.25 billion yuan due to potential investment and foreign exchange losses [1] Group 1: Revenue and Product Performance - The company's flagship products are showing stable performance, with online game service revenue expected to grow by 7% in Q4 2025 [1] - "Dream of the Red Chamber" PC is anticipated to achieve significant growth due to the continued recognition of deferred revenue [1] - "Dream of the Red Chamber" mobile continues to perform well, while "Egg Party" is expected to see increased user activity and revenue due to ongoing holiday and operational events [1] - "Yanyun Sixteen Sounds" maintains steady revenue in the domestic market, and the overseas version is expected to contribute additional revenue after its strong launch [1] - "Marvel Showdown" has been climbing the Steam bestseller list since November 2025, further validating the company's globalization capabilities [1] Group 2: Future Product Pipeline and Shareholder Returns - The product pipeline for 2026 is robust, with key titles like "Forgotten Sea" set for testing in February 2026 and plans for launch [2] - "Starry Sky Friends" has received a license, and the open-world game "Infinite" is generating significant market interest [2] - The company has multiple projects in development, including auto-chess games, which will strengthen its core R&D advantages and support its globalization strategy [2] - The company has maintained a stable shareholder return, with a dividend payout ratio of 30% in the first three quarters of 2025, and is expected to continue generous dividends in Q4 2025 [2] Group 3: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company's Non-GAAP net profit for 2025 has been revised down by 2% to 38.5 billion yuan, while estimates for 2026 and 2027 remain at 42.6 billion yuan and 45.3 billion yuan respectively [2] - The current stock price corresponds to a Non-GAAP P/E ratio of 14/13 times for 2026/2027, with an expected upside of 33% for both Hong Kong and US stocks [2]