维持"强烈推荐"投资评级。考虑到公司后续产品储备丰富，经典游戏表现亮眼，有道等创新业务持续发 展，我们预计公司2025-2027 年归母净利润有望达到351.0/384.9/425.3 亿元。维持 "强烈推荐"投资评 级。 风险提示：新游表现不及预期、竞争格局恶化、监管风险。 三季度公司多款经典游戏表现优秀。《梦幻西游》电脑版最高同时在线玩家次数连创四次新高，达到 358 万；新游戏上线进一步丰富产品矩阵，包括《命运：群星》在海外及国内上线后登顶多地区iOS 下 载榜，《无限大》在2025东京电玩展推出线下试玩后引发热烈反响，《逆水寒》手游及《燕云十六声》 于11 月在全球上线，《遗忘之海》有望于2026 年上线贡献增量。此外，暴雪系列游戏中，《魔兽世 界》近期推出国区独家"泰坦重铸"服务器，《暗黑破坏神II》重制版和《星际争霸I》分别于8 月27 日和 10 月28 日回归中国，《暗黑破坏神IV》国区即将在12 月12 日上线。 有道持续推动AI 技术升级与落地，教育及广告领域商业化成果显著。25Q3有道实现收入16 亿元，同比 增长3.6%，环比增长主要来自智能硬件及在线营销服务收入增长；云音乐25Q3 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][5] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 28.4 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.6 billion yuan, up 31.8% year-on-year and 0.2% quarter-on-quarter [5] - The gross margin for Q3 was 64.1%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 31.0%, up 5.4 percentage points year-on-year. This improvement in profitability is attributed to gains from fair value changes in stock investments and lower net exchange losses [5] - The company’s contract liabilities reached 19.5 billion yuan by the end of Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 25% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15%, indicating strong growth momentum [5] - The report highlights the strong performance of the game "Dream of the Red Chamber" and the successful launch of new games, which are expected to drive future growth [5] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 357 billion yuan, 383 billion yuan, and 429 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16.6, 15.5, and 13.8 times [5] - The company’s revenue for 2023 is projected at 103.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.2%, and net profit is expected to be 29.4 billion yuan, showing no growth year-on-year [6] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 60.9% in 2023 to 64.7% in 2025, while the net profit margin is projected to increase from 28.4% in 2023 to 31.4% in 2025 [6]

Core Insights - The company's Q3 2025 revenue increased by 8% to 28.4 billion yuan, while Non-GAAP net profit rose by 27% to 9.5 billion yuan, slightly below expectations due to unrecognized revenue from some products and higher-than-expected marketing expenses [1] - The company declared a dividend of $0.114 per share and extended its share repurchase program of up to $5 billion until January 2029, having repurchased $2 billion by the end of Q3 2025 [1] Revenue and Profit Trends - Revenue from games and value-added services grew by 12%, driven by flagship products such as "Dream of Dreams" and "Egg Party," showcasing the company's long-term game operation capabilities [1] - Marketing expenses increased by 17% to 4.46 billion yuan, primarily due to seasonal promotional activities and new version marketing for flagship products, leading to a significant increase in deferred revenue [1] Investment and New Game Releases - The company achieved investment income of 1.38 billion yuan, which helped offset the impact of increased marketing expenses on profits [1] - New games "Destiny: Stars" and "Yanyun Sixteen Sounds" are set to launch in overseas and Chinese markets, with the former nominated for the 2025 TGA Best Mobile Game [1] - The company plans to focus on global capabilities and the progress of key new games, with several titles in the pipeline for 2026 [1] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its profit forecast, with current valuations at 16/15x for Hong Kong stocks and 15/14x for U.S. stocks for 2025/2026 Non-GAAP P/E [2] - The company retains an outperform rating and a target price of 275 HKD / 177 USD, indicating an upside potential of 29% for Hong Kong stocks and 33% for U.S. stocks [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent enthusiasm observed at the 2025 China International Digital Interactive Entertainment Expo suggests a continued recovery in the Chinese gaming industry, with positive implications for companies like NetEase (NTES.US) [1] Company Summary - NetEase's stock rose by 3% to $131.305 following the expo, indicating investor confidence [1] - The company showcased new games, including "Forgotten Sea" and "Destiny: Rise," which may accelerate its release schedule in the second half of the year [1] Industry Summary - Analysts noted an increase in foot traffic and player enthusiasm at the expo compared to last year, signaling a normalization of the regulatory environment and a stabilization of the competitive landscape [1] - The improvement in game content quality is contributing to the positive outlook for the industry [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that NetEase (NTES.US) has seen a decline in stock price, dropping 2.06% to $127.61 in pre-market trading, marking a total decline of 7.3% over the past six days [1] - Morgan Stanley has downgraded NetEase's stock rating from "Overweight" to "Neutral," citing limited earnings growth potential due to increased marketing expenses for new and existing games over the next 1-2 years [1] - The report highlights a lack of major new game releases in the second half of the year, which may hinder revenue growth from gaming [1] Group 2 - The article mentions that the gaming market in mainland China is becoming saturated with international game supply, which could impact the revenue certainty of upcoming titles like "Forgotten Sea" and "Infinity" in 2026 [1] - The projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for earnings per share from 2026 to 2027 is only 6% [1] - The target price for NetEase's stock has been raised from $135 to $140, despite the downgrade in rating [1]

Core Insights - The summer game release schedule for 2025 is less competitive compared to previous years, with fewer standout titles expected to dominate the market [1] - A significant trend in the gaming industry for 2024 is a reduction in R&D spending, with approximately 67.6% of listed game companies cutting their development budgets by an average of 20.79% year-on-year [1] - Despite the reduced competition, there are still several promising titles in the 2025 summer lineup that have the potential to become hits [1] Industry Trends - The gaming industry is experiencing a "development contraction" trend, leading to reduced R&D expenditures among companies [1] - The impact of this contraction on the market is expected to have a delayed effect, suggesting that the current lineup may still yield successful titles despite the overall trend [1] Upcoming Titles - Notable titles for the 2025 summer release include: - "解限机" by 西山居, which has already shown strong performance with over 130,000 concurrent players on its launch day [5] - "远光84" by 莉莉丝, which aims to innovate within the shooting genre with new gameplay mechanics [10] - "碳碳岛" by 腾讯游戏, a low-carbon environmental management game that emphasizes educational elements [12] - "明末:渊虚之羽" by 灵泽科技, anticipated to be a leading title in the single-player market [19] Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape is shifting, with major companies like 腾讯 and 网易 adopting more conservative strategies in their game releases for 2025 [16][24] - The industry is witnessing a potential stagnation in gameplay innovation, as companies focus on refining existing concepts rather than introducing groundbreaking new ideas [47] - There is a growing interest in exploring new game genres and mechanics, particularly in response to the evolving demands of players and the influence of AI technology [47]

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant recovery in the gaming industry, with the issuance of 147 domestic and 11 imported game licenses in June, marking a new high for 2025. This reflects a positive trend in both quantity and quality of game releases [1][2]. Game License Issuance - In June, a total of 147 domestic and 11 imported game licenses were issued, the highest number this year. This issuance includes major titles from key gaming companies such as Tencent and NetEase. The total number of domestic game licenses issued in the first half of 2025 reached 757, indicating a consistent release pace [2][3]. - The approval process for imported games has accelerated from a bi-monthly to a monthly basis, suggesting a potential return to the active levels seen before 2019. The total number of game licenses issued in 2024 was 1,416, and the total for 2025 is expected to exceed this figure [2]. New Game Releases and Market Performance - A series of new games are set to launch, with several entering testing phases from late June to July. Notable titles include Tencent's "Under the Human" and Perfect World's "The Other Side," which are expected to support industry performance in the second half of the year [3]. - The total revenue of the Chinese gaming market in May reached 28.051 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.86%. The esports segment showed particularly strong performance, with sales revenue of 14.523 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.22% [3]. - The overseas revenue from self-developed games reached 1.577 billion yuan, marking three consecutive months of growth. The improvement in the esports ecosystem and the iteration of overseas products are driving structural growth in the industry [3].