恒地又指，旗下商场国庆黄金周表现继续亮丽，国庆长假首四天租户销售同比增长15%。随着上海恒隆 广场引入老铺黄金(06181)等新租户，以及现有租户的扩张，小摩预计恒隆租户销售改善趋势能延续至 第四季。该行另一首选股为太古地产(01972)，预料将同样受惠于中国零售市道复苏。 摩根大通发布研报称，恒隆地产(00101)内地租户销售在第三季显著改善，同比增长10%，好过该行低单 位数增长预期，扭转次季的1%跌幅。考虑到其股息回报率达5.9%，加上内地租户销售数据改善，小摩 继续将恒隆列为两大地产股首选之一，评级为"增持"，目标价10港元。 ...

恒地又指，旗下商场国庆黄金周表现继续亮丽，国庆长假首四天租户销售同比增长15%。随着上海恒隆 广场引入老铺黄金(06181)等新租户，以及现有租户的扩张，小摩预计恒隆租户销售改善趋势能延续至 第四季。该行另一首选股为太古地产(01972)，预料将同样受惠于中国零售市道复苏。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通发布研报称，恒隆地产(00101)内地租户销售在第三季显著改善，同比增长 10%，好过该行低单位数增长预期，扭转次季的1%跌幅。考虑到其股息回报率达5.9%，加上内地租户 销售数据改善，小摩继续将恒隆列为两大地产股首选之一，评级为"增持"，目标价10港元。 ...

Core Insights - The decline of Wang Jianlin symbolizes a potential end to the era of commercial real estate in China, raising questions about the future of high-end shopping malls as foot traffic decreases [1] - The rapid expansion of commercial centers in China over the past decade has led to saturation, particularly in lower-tier cities, with a significant increase in the number of shopping centers and commercial space [3][5] Industry Development - From 2011 to 2024, the number of commercial centers surged from 816 to approximately 6,700, with total commercial building area expanding from under 100 million square meters to 630 million square meters, resulting in per capita commercial space growth from 0.03 square meters to 0.55 square meters [3] - The commercial real estate sector saw explosive growth due to rising consumer spending and economic development, with GDP increasing from 6.19 trillion to 15 trillion yuan between 2010 and 2020 [5][8] Market Saturation - By 2020, the market became oversaturated, particularly in lower-tier cities, leading to a significant drop in rental yields from an average of 8% to -10% as many projects were completed [8] - The average vacancy rate for shopping centers in key cities reached a four-year high, with cities like Fuzhou experiencing vacancy rates as high as 15.03% due to intense competition and market saturation [8][12] Impact of E-commerce - The rise of e-commerce, particularly mobile and online retail, has drastically changed the retail landscape, with online retail growth averaging 17.4% annually, while offline retail growth slowed to 3.5% [11] - The shift in consumer behavior has led to a decline in foot traffic in shopping malls, with many struggling to maintain high rental prices as online platforms dominate marketing and customer engagement [11][12] Future Outlook - The future of shopping malls in China appears bleak, with predictions that many will fail unless they are strategically located, can attract population inflow, effectively integrate online and offline marketing, and offer unique brands rather than homogeneous chain stores [12]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities projects Longfor Group's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 6.22 billion, 7.64 billion, and 8.94 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.89, 1.09, and 1.28 yuan, maintaining an "Accumulate" rating due to the stable development of the company's asset operation and property management segments [1] Group 1 - As of June 2025, the company operates 89 shopping malls (including 75 heavy-asset and 14 light-asset), with a total opened mall area of 12.56 million square meters (including parking spaces) and an overall occupancy rate of 96.8%, with total sales increasing by 17% [1] - The long-term rental apartments have opened 127,000 units, achieving an overall occupancy rate of 95.6% [1] - The property management segment includes approximately 2,200 projects, managing an area of about 400 million square meters [1] Group 2 - In the first half of 2025, the property investment segment reported revenue of 7.01 billion yuan (a year-on-year increase of 2.5%), with a gross margin of approximately 77.7% (compared to 74.6% in the same period of 2024) [1] - The property service segment generated revenue of 6.26 billion yuan, with a gross margin of approximately 30%, remaining stable compared to the same period in 2024 [1]

Financial Performance - The underlying profit attributable to the company's shareholders increased by 0.5% to HK$21,855 million in FY2025 [11] - Reported profit attributable to the company's shareholders increased by 1.2% to HK$19,277 million in FY2025 [11] - Property development operating profit in Hong Kong decreased by 50.9% to HK$3,200 million in FY2025 [30] - Property development operating profit in Mainland increased by 281% to HK$5,090 million in FY2025 [72] - Property rental operating profit decreased by 3.2% to HK$18,392 million in FY2025 [12] - Hotel operations operating profit decreased by 5.4% to HK$615 million in FY2025 [12] Financial Position - Net debt decreased to HK$93,298 million as of 30 June 2025 [13] - Gearing ratio decreased to 15.1% as of 30 June 2025 [13] - Fixed-rate or RMB floating debt accounted for 55% of total debt as of 30 June 2025 [19] Land Bank and Property Development - Total land bank in Hong Kong was 57.4 million sq ft as of 30 June 2025 [23] - Total land bank in Mainland was 65.3 million sq ft as of 30 June 2025 [66] - Contracted sales in Hong Kong amounted to approximately HK$42.3 billion in FY2025 [35] - Contracted sales on the Mainland amounted to approximately RMB4.0 billion in FY2025 [78]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy" for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 58.8 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 25%. However, the core and attributable net profits were 1.4 billion and 3.2 billion RMB, showing a decline of 71% and 45% respectively, which aligns with the earnings forecast. The profit drop is attributed to the ongoing adjustment phase in the development business, but operational business has become a crucial support for core profits, demonstrating strong resilience [1][2] - The company’s development business is still in a bottoming phase, focusing on digesting existing assets. The revenue from project handovers increased by 35% year-on-year to 45.5 billion RMB, but the gross margin decreased by 7.2 percentage points to 0.2%, indicating low profitability levels. The sales amount dropped by 30% to 24.5 billion RMB, and the land acquisition amount fell by 71% to 1.5 billion RMB, reflecting a decline in both sales and land acquisition activities [3][4] - The company has successfully reduced its debt scale, with interest-bearing liabilities decreasing by 9% to 169.8 billion RMB. The short-term debt ratio also decreased, and the cash-to-short-debt ratio improved to 1.74 times. The average financing cost dropped by 42 basis points to 3.58%, indicating an optimization in financing structure [4] Summary by Sections Operational Performance - The operational business maintained stable growth with a revenue increase of 2% year-on-year, accounting for 23% of total revenue by the end of 2024. The commercial segment saw a same-store sales growth of 3%, and rental income increased by 5% to 5.5 billion RMB. The company plans to open 10 new shopping malls in the second half of 2025, which is expected to further drive growth [2] Development Business - The development business is primarily focused on liquidating existing assets, with a significant amount of unsold land reserves valued over 200 billion RMB. The company anticipates a saleable value of 120 billion RMB in the second half of 2025, indicating a relatively abundant supply [3] Financial Outlook - The report adjusts the earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 to 0.83, 0.93, and 1.06 RMB respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 14%, 5%, and 2%. The target price is set at 13.86 HKD, based on a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.53 times [5][8]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that with a significant improvement in market risk appetite, Longfor Group's financial security has been solidified, maintaining an outperform rating for the industry with a target price of HKD 11.5, corresponding to 0.46 times the 2025 target P/B and a 9% upside potential [1] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue increase of 25% year-on-year to CNY 58.75 billion, primarily due to an increase in development settlement scale; the core net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 1.38 billion, in line with market expectations [1] - The company declared an interim dividend of CNY 0.07 per share, with a slight increase in the payout ratio to 34.2% [1] Debt Management - The company has successfully reduced interest-bearing liabilities by CNY 6.5 billion to CNY 169.8 billion compared to the end of 2024, leading to a decrease in net debt ratio and pre-debt ratio by 0.5 percentage points and 1.2 percentage points to 51.2% and 56.1%, respectively [2] - The financing cost for the first half of 2025 decreased to 3.58%, with the average loan term extended to 10.95 years [2] Operational Performance - The company's operational business revenue increased by 2.5% year-on-year to CNY 7.01 billion, with shopping center retail sales rising by 17% year-on-year to CNY 40.2 billion [3] - The service business revenue remained stable at CNY 6.26 billion, with the managed area approximately 400 million square meters [3] Strategic Focus - The company aims to further reduce interest-bearing liabilities by approximately CNY 20 billion to around CNY 145 billion by the end of 2025, with about CNY 100 billion being operational property loans and long-term loans [4] - The company expects to achieve a net cash inflow of approximately CNY 100 billion for the year, with positive contributions from both development and diversified cash flows [4] Future Outlook - The company anticipates that rental income growth from shopping malls will normalize starting in 2026, with plans to open 10 new malls in the second half of the year [5] - The operational and service businesses are expected to continue serving as a stabilizing force for the company's cash flow and core net profit [5]

Core Viewpoint - Company reported 1H25 performance in line with market expectations, with revenue increasing by 25% year-on-year to 58.75 billion yuan, primarily due to an increase in development settlement scale, while core net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 70.9% year-on-year to 1.38 billion yuan [1] Financial Performance - Company declared an interim dividend of 0.07 yuan per share, with a slight increase in payout ratio to 34.2% [1] - Interest-bearing liabilities decreased by 6.5 billion yuan to 169.8 billion yuan compared to the end of 2024, leading to a reduction in net debt ratio and pre-tax debt ratio by 0.5 percentage points and 1.2 percentage points to 51.2% and 56.1%, respectively [1] - Financing costs reduced to 3.58%, with the average loan term extended to 10.95 years [1] Operational and Service Business - Operating business revenue increased by 2.5% year-on-year to 7.01 billion yuan, with shopping center retail sales rising by 17% year-on-year to 40.2 billion yuan [2] - Service business revenue remained stable at 6.26 billion yuan, with property management covering approximately 400 million square meters [2] - Overall, operating and service businesses are expected to contribute approximately 4 billion yuan to core net profit in 1H25 [2] Development and Profitability Trends - Development settlement revenue increased by 35% year-on-year to 45.5 billion yuan, but gross margin was pressured to approximately 0.2% due to a higher proportion of older inventory in the settlement structure [2] - Company aims to further optimize debt structure and cash flow management, projecting a reduction of interest-bearing liabilities by about 20 billion yuan to around 145 billion yuan by the end of 2025 [2] Future Outlook - Company expects rental income growth to normalize starting in 2026, with the opening of 10 new shopping malls in the second half of the year [3] - Operating and service businesses are anticipated to continue serving as a stabilizing factor for cash flow and core net profit [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Core net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down by 45% and 51% to 2.179 billion yuan (down 69% year-on-year) and 2.296 billion yuan (up 5% year-on-year), respectively [3] - Company maintains an outperform rating with a target price of 11.5 HKD, corresponding to 0.46 times the 2025 target P/B and a 9% upside potential [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][5][15] Core Views - The company experienced a slight decline in performance but remains active in land acquisition and shows steady growth in its commercial sector [5] - The company is backed by China Resources Group and is a leading urban investment and development operator in the industry [5] - The financial position is stable, with low financing costs and a strong cash position, enabling the company to expand against market trends [5] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 251,137 million - 2024: 278,799 million - 2025E: 275,788 million - 2026E: 263,701 million - 2027E: 268,164 million - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at 21.3% for 2023, 11.0% for 2024, and declines of 1.1% and 4.4% for 2025E and 2026E respectively [4][6] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted as follows: - 2023: 31,365 million - 2024: 25,577 million - 2025E: 25,787 million - 2026E: 25,998 million - 2027E: 26,653 million - The projected earnings per share (EPS) are 4.40 for 2023, declining to 3.59 for 2024, and slightly increasing to 3.74 by 2027 [4][6] Sales and Land Acquisition - In the first half of 2025, the company reported sales of 1,103 million, a year-on-year decline of 12% [5] - The land acquisition amount reached 447 million, a significant increase of 75% year-on-year, with a land acquisition to sales ratio of 41% [5] - The company has a total land bank of 4,119 million square meters, with 70% located in first and second-tier cities [5] Commercial Performance - The retail revenue from shopping malls increased by 20% year-on-year, with a total of 1,101 million in the first half of 2025 [5] - The company operates 94 shopping malls, with a high occupancy rate of 97.3% [5] - The income from investment properties, including hotels, was 121 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.5% [5]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has downgraded the target price for Henderson Land Development (00012) from HKD 31 to HKD 30, citing a discount of approximately 50% to the net asset value per share, while anticipating a potential bottoming out of Hong Kong property prices [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley expects Hong Kong residential property prices to remain flat this year, while office and shopping mall rents may decline by 5% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share forecast for Henderson Land Development for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027 has been reduced by 8% to reflect underwhelming mid-term performance, the latest pre-sale status of property development projects, rental income expectations, and the progress of land reclamation [1] Group 3: Dividend Expectations - Despite the earnings downgrade, Morgan Stanley maintains the dividend forecast for fiscal years 2025 to 2027 at HKD 1.8 per share, expecting stable rental income, dividends from Hong Kong and China Gas (00003), accelerated land reclamation, improved residential sales in the second half, and support from major shareholders [1]