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Group 1 - The simulated portfolio continues to show negative returns, with the medium and short-term credit style portfolio experiencing smaller drawdowns compared to the corresponding interest rate style portfolio, while the long-term portfolio has seen significant declines [2][14] - In the interest rate style portfolio, the weekly returns for the deposit sinking and deposit bullet strategies were both -0.25%, while in the credit style portfolio, these strategies had smaller drawdowns with returns of -0.14% each [2][14] - The credit style deposit-heavy portfolio's weekly average return slightly rebounded to -0.14%, outperforming the corresponding interest rate style portfolio by 10.7 basis points, marking the strongest defensive strategy since late July [2][17] Group 2 - The credit strategy has created a certain yield space, with the secondary bond duration strategy's yield distance from the year's low exceeding 20 basis points [3][26] - The main strategy combinations have seen yields stop falling and start to rise, with the secondary bond duration strategy's weekly yield increasing by nearly 0.16 basis points, bringing the annualized yield to 2.02%, which is 22.3 basis points wider from the year's low [3][26] - The weekly yield contribution from the credit style portfolio remains in the range of -25% to -5%, with capital gains continuing to drag down returns [3][26] Group 3 - In the past four weeks, the medium and short-term perpetual bond heavy strategies have shown certain defensive attributes, with cumulative excess returns for the city investment short-term sinking, commercial bank bullet, and perpetual bond sinking strategies reaching 13.3 basis points, 7.2 basis points, and 6.6 basis points respectively [4][32] - The city investment heavy strategies have recently underperformed compared to the secondary perpetual heavy strategies, with the cumulative returns for the city investment duration and barbell strategies deviating from the benchmark by -10 basis points and -30 basis points respectively [4][32] - The short-end strategies have outperformed the benchmark, while the city investment sinking strategy's excess returns have fallen into negative territory [4][35]

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has shown a significant increase in both price and trading volume, indicating a strong market interest despite a potentially weak short-term trend in the bond market [3][4]. Group 1: Performance Metrics - As of July 25, 2025, the 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera rose by 0.07%, with a latest price of 110.92 yuan, and has accumulated an increase of 11.40% over the past year [3]. - The ETF's latest scale reached 12.952 billion yuan, marking a one-year high [4]. - The ETF has seen a net inflow of 40.61 billion yuan over the past six days, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 1.51 billion yuan [4]. Group 2: Trading Activity - The ETF recorded a turnover rate of 18.01% and a trading volume of 2.34 billion yuan, indicating active market participation [3]. - The average daily trading volume over the past week was 3.59 billion yuan [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategy and Outlook - Industry experts suggest that the current "strong stock, weak bond" trend may continue in the short term, with the bond market's performance heavily reliant on stock market dynamics and the continuity of liquidity [3]. - Despite short-term concerns, the long-term pricing logic remains intact, with potential opportunities arising from market adjustments [3]. Group 4: Fund Characteristics - The ETF has a management fee of 0.15% and a custody fee of 0.05% [5]. - The tracking error for the ETF over the past month was 0.029%, indicating a close alignment with the underlying index [5].

Market Overview and Analysis - The issuance scale of government bonds, local government bonds, and policy financial bonds in the primary market last week was 590.5 billion, 197.3 billion, and 151.8 billion respectively, with net financing amounts of 501.2 billion, 171.1 billion, and 35.7 billion [1] - The total issuance scale of non-financial credit bonds was 122.2 billion, with a net financing amount of -11.2 billion [1] Secondary Market Review - Interest rates rose last week, influenced by factors such as the Sino-US Geneva joint statement, fluctuations in funding rates, the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts, and April credit data [2] Liquidity Tracking - Liquidity conditions shifted from loose to tight last week, as the demand for funds from reverse repos, MLF maturities, and government bond payments partially offset the increase in supply from the reserve requirement ratio cuts, leading to a marginal tightening in the latter half of the week [3] Policy and Fundamentals - The Sino-US Geneva joint statement canceled 91% of countervailing tariffs and exempted 24% of reciprocal tariffs for 90 days [4] - In April, new RMB loans amounted to 280 billion, and total social financing reached 1.2 trillion [4] Overseas Market - Moody's downgraded the US credit rating; however, the Sino-US negotiations boosted risk appetite, resulting in a 5.3% increase in the S&P 500 for the week and a 6 basis points rise in 10-year US Treasury yields [5] Equity Market - A-shares were positively impacted by the unexpected results of Sino-US negotiations, with major indices experiencing fluctuations; the total A-share index rose by 0.72%, the CSI 300 by 1.12%, and the ChiNext by 1.38%, while the Sci-Tech Innovation Board fell by 1.10% [6] - A-share trading volume decreased, with an average daily turnover of 1.27 trillion, down by 87.158 billion week-on-week [6] - As of May 15, 2025, the total financing balance for A-shares was 1.796728 trillion, slightly reduced by 410 million from May 8 [6] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - The 90-day tariff exemption period between China and the US is expected to stimulate exports, reducing the risk of economic slowdown in the short term, which is the macro backdrop for the recent marginal tightening of liquidity [7] - Despite insufficient credit demand, weak real estate sales, and persistently low prices, there is no basis for significant tightening of funds [7] - Future broad interest rates, including deposit and loan rates, are expected to follow policy rate cuts, and the urgency for counter-cyclical policies is reduced due to the export stimulus [7] - The bond market may provide good entry opportunities if it overprices the temporary tightening due to tax periods and payments [7] - In the convertible bond market, the weight of fundamental pricing is expected to increase, with recent valuations slightly compressed, but still supported by supply-demand dynamics [7]