Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report In August 2025, the leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market increased slightly month - on - month and was lower than the same period in previous years. The total bond custody scale of China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. (CCDC) and Shanghai Clearing House increased. Different institutions had different investment preferences for various bonds, with commercial banks increasing their allocation of treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds, and broad - based funds increasing their holdings of local government bonds [1][2][50]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bank - Inter Leverage Ratio In late August, the inter - bank bond market leverage ratio was 106.88%, up 0.07 pct from the end of the previous month, and generally lower than the leverage ratio in the same period of previous years [1]. 3.2 Custody Data Overview In August 2025, the total bond custody scale of CCDC and Shanghai Clearing House was 174.54 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 1.506 trillion yuan. Among them, CCDC's custody scale increased by 1.5382 trillion yuan, and Shanghai Clearing House's decreased by 32.2 billion yuan. Treasury bonds, local government bonds, policy - bank bonds, and medium - term notes contributed to the increase, while enterprise bonds, short - term financing bills, ultra - short - term financing bills, directional instruments, and inter - bank certificates of deposit contributed to the decrease [2][12]. 3.3 By Bond Type - **Interest - rate Bonds**: In August 2025, the total custody scale of major interest - rate bonds was 116.60 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 1.7871 trillion yuan. Commercial banks were the main buyers, increasing their holdings by 1.2979 trillion yuan. Broad - based funds, insurance institutions, etc. also increased their holdings, while overseas institutions reduced their holdings [3][49]. - **Credit Bonds**: The total custody scale of major credit bonds was 16.06 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 23 billion yuan. Commercial banks were the main buyers, increasing their holdings by 54.4 billion yuan. Broad - based funds and securities companies were the main sellers, reducing their holdings by 18.1 billion yuan and 14.8 billion yuan respectively. Insurance institutions and overseas institutions also reduced their holdings [3][49]. - **Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit**: The custody scale was 20.38 trillion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 355.6 billion yuan. Broad - based funds and commercial banks were the main sellers [3][49]. 3.4 By Institution - **Commercial Banks**: The custody scale of major bonds was 85.29 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 1.153 trillion yuan. They increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds and credit bonds by 1.2979 trillion yuan and 54.4 billion yuan respectively, and reduced their holdings of inter - bank certificates of deposit by 199.3 billion yuan [4][50]. - **Broad - based Funds**: The custody scale of major bonds was 37.38 trillion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 172.3 billion yuan. They increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds by 120.7 billion yuan and reduced their holdings of credit bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit by 18.1 billion yuan and 274.9 billion yuan respectively [4][50]. - **Overseas Institutions**: The custody scale of major bonds was 3.69 trillion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 98.8 billion yuan. They reduced their holdings of interest - rate bonds, credit bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit by 27.5 billion yuan, 3.5 billion yuan, and 67.8 billion yuan respectively [4][54]. - **Insurance Institutions**: The custody scale of major bonds was 4.26 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 43.2 billion yuan. They increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds by 49.5 billion yuan and reduced their holdings of credit bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit by 5.9 billion yuan and 0.4 billion yuan respectively [4][54]. - **Securities Companies**: The custody scale of major bonds was 2.64 trillion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 2 billion yuan. They increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds by 13.4 billion yuan and reduced their holdings of credit bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit by 14.8 billion yuan and 0.6 billion yuan respectively [4][54]. - **Credit Unions**: The custody scale of major bonds was 2 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 11.9 billion yuan. They increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds and credit bonds by 22.1 billion yuan and 0.7 billion yuan respectively, and reduced their holdings of inter - bank certificates of deposit by 10.8 billion yuan [5][55].

Market Overview - The funding environment was tight at the beginning of the week but eased later, maintaining overall balance [1] - The bond market experienced fluctuations due to news regarding fund fee rate adjustments and potential cancellation of tax exemptions for bond funds, leading to a rise in yields [1][4] - The 10-year government bond yield surpassed 1.8%, reaching a new high since April, before retreating later in the week due to weak export and financial data, as well as rumors of the central bank restarting bond purchases [1][4] Yield Changes - As of September 12, 2025, the yields for various maturities changed as follows: 1-year (0.41BP), 2-year (2.14BP), 3-year (0.97BP), 5-year (0.18BP), 7-year (2.25BP), 10-year (4.1BP), 30-year (7.15BP), and 50-year (7.75BP) compared to September 5, 2025 [2][3] Bond Market Dynamics - On Monday, the bond market weakened due to new fund fee regulations, with the 10-year bond yield rising to 1.784% [4] - On Tuesday, significant redemptions in index bond funds led to a quick rise in yields, with the 10-year bond yield reaching 1.795% [4] - By Wednesday, the yield peaked at 1.8325% before slightly retreating to 1.815% [4] - On Thursday, rumors of the central bank's bond purchases helped restore market sentiment, causing yields to drop [4] - By Friday, the central bank announced a 600 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, contributing to further yield declines [4] Government Bond Issuance - A total of 83 bonds were issued last week, amounting to 10,345.42 billion yuan, including 5,663.70 billion yuan in government bonds [8] - For the upcoming week (September 15-19, 2025), 69 bonds are planned for issuance, totaling 5,005.19 billion yuan [8] International Bond Market - The U.S. Treasury market saw a slight rebound after reaching multi-month lows, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping to 4.06% [9] - The U.S. August CPI rose by 2.9%, slightly above the previous value of 2.7%, while core CPI remained stable at 3.1% [10][12] Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted 12,645 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations last week, resulting in a net injection of 1,961 billion yuan [13] - An announcement was made for a 600 billion yuan buyout reverse repurchase operation scheduled for September 15, 2025 [13] Economic Indicators - The consumer price index (CPI) in August remained stable, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.4% [15] - The total social financing scale increased by 26.56 trillion yuan in the first eight months of 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 8.8% [16] Institutional Perspectives - Huazhong Securities noted that the bond market sentiment remains fragile, with potential opportunities for long-term investments despite current volatility [19] - Financial institutions suggest a "barbell" strategy for bond investments, focusing on medium to high-grade credit bonds in the short term and long-term government bonds [19]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the macroeconomic environment, particularly focusing on the bond market and real estate sector in China, highlighting the impact of various economic indicators and policies on market dynamics [1][2][3][5][6][7]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Economic Improvement**: August PMI data indicates a marginal improvement in economic conditions, with a PMI of 49.4, suggesting a slowdown in the decline of manufacturing activity. However, weak demand and significant employment pressure persist [3][7]. - **Real Estate Sector**: There is a slight recovery in high-frequency sales data for real estate, attributed to low base effects and relaxed loan policies in major cities. However, overall investment remains low, with no significant improvement in government or real estate investments [5][6][7]. - **Interest Rate Trends**: The central bank's monetary policy remains stable, with expectations that anti-involution and de-leveraging in real estate could raise the interest rate benchmark by 15 basis points annually. This change is anticipated to enhance social capital investment returns, although the execution will take time [1][9][10]. - **Bond Market Dynamics**: The bond market is primarily influenced by stock market sentiment, with a strong correlation observed. A 100-point change in the Shanghai Composite Index corresponds to a 4 basis point change in the 10-year government bond yield [13][17]. - **Liquidity and Financing**: The total financing needs for interest rates from September to December are estimated at around 4 trillion yuan, significantly lower than the previous year's 6 trillion yuan. The bond issuance pace is expected to be uneven, with a concentration of new local government debt likely in September and October [19][25][26]. Additional Important Insights - **Investment Indicators**: Indicators for investments in rebar and cement show continued low demand, with no signs of improvement in government-led or real estate investments [6]. - **Future Economic Outlook**: While there are signs of marginal improvement in economic conditions, structural issues such as weak demand and employment pressures remain unresolved. Close monitoring of macroeconomic data and policy changes is essential for assessing future economic trends [7][14]. - **Market Sentiment**: The market is currently experiencing a "see-saw" effect between stocks and bonds, with expectations that this trend will continue in the coming months. The overall market sentiment remains cautious, influenced by upcoming events and economic data releases [14][26][27]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the macroeconomic environment, particularly in relation to the bond and real estate markets.

Core Insights - The report indicates that commercial banks are increasing their allocation to interest rate bonds, while broad-based funds are reducing their holdings in government bonds and policy financial bonds [4][5][51]. Group 1: Interbank Leverage Ratio - As of the end of July, the interbank market leverage ratio was 106.81%, down from 107.64% at the end of the previous month, indicating a decrease of 0.83 percentage points and remaining below historical levels for the same period [2][11]. Group 2: Custody Data Overview - In July 2025, the total custody scale of bonds at China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. (CCDC) and Shanghai Clearing House reached 173.03 trillion yuan, an increase of 174.49 billion yuan from the previous month [3][14]. Group 3: By Bond Type - The total custody scale of major interest rate bonds (government bonds, local government bonds, policy bank bonds) reached 114.81 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 143.74 billion yuan. Commercial banks were the main buyers, increasing their holdings by 154.99 billion yuan, while broad-based funds, securities companies, and foreign institutions reduced their holdings [4][51]. - The custody scale of major credit bonds (corporate bonds, medium-term notes, short-term financing bonds, and ultra-short-term financing bonds) was 16.04 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 20.07 billion yuan. Broad-based funds and commercial banks were the main buyers, increasing their holdings by 116.8 billion yuan and 71.7 billion yuan, respectively [4][30][51]. - The custody scale of interbank certificates of deposit was 20.74 trillion yuan, a decrease of 37.43 billion yuan, with commercial banks and foreign institutions being the main sellers [4][47][51]. Group 4: By Institution - The custody scale of commercial banks reached 84.13 trillion yuan, increasing by 137.58 billion yuan. They increased their holdings in interest rate bonds and credit bonds by 154.99 billion yuan and 7.17 billion yuan, respectively, while reducing their holdings in interbank certificates of deposit by 24.58 billion yuan [5][52]. - The custody scale of broad-based funds was 37.55 trillion yuan, decreasing by 83.7 billion yuan. They increased their holdings in credit bonds by 116.8 billion yuan but reduced their holdings in interest rate bonds and interbank certificates of deposit by 117.9 billion yuan and 2.26 billion yuan, respectively [5][52]. - Foreign institutions had a custody scale of 3.79 trillion yuan, decreasing by 301.6 billion yuan, with reductions in interest rate bonds, interbank certificates of deposit, and credit bonds by 129 billion yuan, 167.3 billion yuan, and 5.4 billion yuan, respectively [5][57].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market experienced fluctuations with a slight decline in yields, influenced by the recovery of the equity market and the central bank's liquidity measures. The 10-year government bond yield fell by 1.68 basis points to 1.69% over the week [1][4]. Market Overview - The bond market saw a total issuance of 61 bonds amounting to 806.51 billion yuan, including 4.6855 billion yuan in government bonds and 1.725 billion yuan in policy bank bonds [7]. - The central bank conducted a buyout reverse repurchase operation of 700 billion yuan to maintain liquidity, resulting in a net injection of 163.5 billion yuan into the market [13][14]. Yield Changes - The yield curve for government bonds showed varied changes from August 1 to August 8, with the 10-year yield decreasing by 1.68 basis points to 1.6891% [2][3]. - The 30-year and 10-year futures contracts rose by 0.19% and 0.18%, respectively, indicating a bullish sentiment in the futures market [6]. International Market Context - The U.S. Treasury market showed signs of weakness, with yields rising by 6-8 basis points, reflecting a decrease in demand for newly issued bonds [8][9]. - The market anticipates three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year, with an 88.9% probability for a 25 basis point cut in September [11]. Institutional Insights - Analysts suggest that the recent issuance of local government bonds exceeded expectations, indicating a supportive stance from the central bank and a pursuit of yield by institutions [17][18]. - The bond market is expected to remain in a range-bound trading pattern, with specific attention to the 10-year government bond yield around 1.7% [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - The recent economic indicators and policy changes have led to a recovery in the bond market, with a notable decline in bond yields, particularly the 10-year government bond yield, which fell to approximately 1.70% [1][4][6]. Market Overview - The bond market experienced a general decline in yields across various maturities from July 25 to August 1, with the 10-year yield decreasing by 2.65 basis points [2][3]. - The issuance of government bonds totaled 672.435 billion yuan across 92 bonds, with significant demand for a 50-year special government bond issued at a competitive rate [8][9]. Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for July was reported at 49.3%, indicating a slight decline, while the non-manufacturing index was at 50.1%, also down by 0.4 percentage points [19]. - The U.S. labor market showed signs of weakness, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below expectations, which may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [12]. Policy Changes - Starting August 8, a value-added tax will be reinstated on interest income from newly issued government bonds, which may lead to a short-term boost in bond market activity but could also shift funds towards credit bonds in the long term [1][20]. - The Central Bank conducted a total of 16.632 billion yuan in reverse repos during the week, maintaining liquidity in the market [15][17]. Institutional Perspectives - Analysts from Guojin Securities suggest that the new VAT on bond interest may lead to higher issuance rates for new bonds, creating a yield spread between new and existing bonds [21]. - Financial institutions anticipate continued monetary easing, with potential rate cuts expected to support the bond market, projecting that the 10-year government bond yield could trend towards 1.5% [21].

Core Viewpoint - The central bank's recent operations and economic data indicate a mixed but generally supportive environment for the bond market, with expectations of further actions to stimulate the economy and manage interest rates [1][20]. Market Overview - The central bank conducted net withdrawal operations last week, leading to fluctuations in the funding environment due to tax payments and MLF maturities [1]. - Economic data released during the week exceeded expectations, contributing to a slight adjustment in bond yields, with the 10-year government bond yield decreasing by approximately 0.5 basis points to 1.64% [1][4]. - The issuance of local government bonds is set to exceed 580 billion yuan, with net financing expected to surpass 500 billion yuan, marking the highest levels since December 2024 and February 2025 [1][8]. Bond Yield Changes - The yield curve for government bonds showed declines across various maturities, with the 1-year and 2-year yields decreasing by 4.5 basis points and 4.7 basis points, respectively [2]. - The 10-year government bond yield saw a minor decline of 0.44 basis points, reflecting a broader trend of decreasing yields across the curve [3][4]. Trading Activity - The trading of long-term government bonds has seen strong buying interest, with the 30-year futures contract rising by 0.71% and the 10-year contract increasing by 0.14% [6]. - The overall bond market remains in a favorable environment, although further declines in interest rates may require additional catalysts such as central bank bond purchases [1][20]. Economic Data Insights - Industrial output and service sector growth have shown positive trends, with industrial value-added output growing by 5.8% year-on-year in May, and retail sales increasing by 6.4% [16][17]. - Fixed asset investment also demonstrated growth, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7% for the first five months of the year [18]. Institutional Perspectives - Analysts suggest that the current favorable conditions in the bond market are supported by both fundamental and liquidity factors, with expectations for a potential "bond bull" market [20]. - The resumption of government bond trading by the central bank is viewed as a long-term positive, although short-term impacts may vary [21].

Group 1 - The funding environment remains loose, with interest rates dropping below the 1.4% policy rate level, supported by weak inflation and trade data [1][5] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 400 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, contributing to a net injection of 200 billion yuan in June, ensuring ample liquidity for government bond issuance and maturing interbank certificates of deposit [1][10] - The yield on 10-year government bonds decreased by 1 basis point to 1.64% over the week, indicating a flattening of the yield curve [1][5] Group 2 - The first meeting of the China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism took place in London, where both sides reached a framework agreement to implement the consensus from the June 5 call between the two heads of state [1][11] - Despite improved market confidence, uncertainties regarding demand and the external trade environment may still disrupt economic growth [1][11] - The bond market fundamentals are expected to remain stable, with ongoing attention needed on international situations, second-quarter funding changes, and government debt supply impacts [1][11] Group 3 - The bond market saw a total issuance of 51 bonds amounting to 941.13 billion yuan last week, including 65.78 billion yuan in government bonds [5][6] - For the upcoming week, 68 bonds are planned for issuance, totaling 686.75 billion yuan, with 39 billion yuan in government bonds [6] - The yield curve for government bonds showed a downward trend across various maturities, with notable decreases in the long-term bonds [2][3]

——4 月交易所及银行间托管数据点评 报告日期： 2025-5-21 [Table_Author] 首席分析师：颜子琦 [Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 点评报告 债市机构已"全面上车" 上一次发生机构全面增配的时间点为 2024 年 1 月。回顾历史数据，我们 发现托管量的变化中广义基金与商业银行通常走势相反，债市表现偏强时 通常广义基金增持、商业银行减持，反之亦然，而机构全面增配可能说明 一方面其在趋势性行情下担心踏空风险；另一方面，4 月债券供给量实际 并不多，也反映了"先上车"的持券意愿。 5 月债市出现"小碎步"回调，波动已经明显降低，多数机构持券观望。 5 月初 10 年国债在中美联合声明后，由 1.63%逐步回调至 1.70%，上行 7bp，但该过程历经约 20 天，波动已经较此前（2-3 月）明显降低，说明 多数机构的持券意愿依然较强，债市多头并未出现瓦解趋势，从边际表现 上看二级高频交易数据也暂未出现明显抛压。 展望后市，在债市回调背景下不乏止盈资金，但最近一份托管数据显示目 前机构持仓意愿相对较强，目前机构行为依然对债市偏有利，对应行情或 是上有顶、下有底的窄幅震荡 ...

新华财经北京5月19日电（王柘）上周（2025年5月12日至5月16日），《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》在周初发布给债市带来利空， 收益率显著上行，随后几日陷入震荡，全周10年期国债收益率上涨超4BP至1.68%。降准落地，资金面前期维持均衡偏松，DR001靠向 1.4%，但周五随着资金面收敛急升逾20BP。 央行发布2025年4月金融数据显示，4月新增社会融资规模1.16万亿元，同比多增1.22万亿元；4月末社融规模存量同比增长8.7%、较上月 高0.3个百分点，广义货币（M2）同比增长8%、较上月末高1个百分点。据测算，1-4月政府债券净融资超过5万亿元，同比多约3.6万亿 元。其中，4月启动超长期特别国债、注资特别国债发行，加上地方政府特殊再融资专项债发行持续推进，当月净融资约9700亿元，同 比多约1.1万亿元，上拉社融增速大约0.3个百分点。 行情回顾 2025年5月16日，中债国债到期收益率1年期、2年期、3年期、5年期、7年期、10年期、30年期、50年期较2025年5月9日分别变动 3.14BP、4.53BP、4.37BP、8.13BP、6.09BP、4.42BP、3.55BP、4.68BP。 ...