| | | 中债国债收益率曲线(到期)》 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 标准期限(年) | 12月12日 | 12月19日 | 变动BP | | 0 | 1.18 | 1.19 | 1 | | 0.08 | 1.2695 | 1.2437 | -2. 58 | | 0. 17 | 1.3662 | 1.3336 | -3.26 | | 0. 25 | 1. 3706 | 1.35 | -2.06 | | 0.5 | 1.3819 | 1.35 | -3.19 | | 0. 75 | 1. 3868 | 1.3519 | -3.49 | | 1 | 1.3879 | 1. 3547 | -3.32 | | 2 | 1. 3951 | 1. 3752 | -1.99 | | 3 | 1.4161 | 1.3941 | -2.2 | | 5 | 1.6279 | 1.6021 | -2. 58 | | 7 | 1.741 | 1.7258 | -1.52 | | 10 | 1.8396 | 1. 8308 | -0. 88 | | 15 | 2. 1232 | 2. 1146 | ...

国开债券ETF紧密跟踪中债-0-3年国开行债券指数(总值)财富指数，中债-0-3 年国开行债券指数隶属于 中债总指数族分类，该指数成分券包括国家开发银行在境内公开发行且上市流通的待偿期 3 年以内（包 含 3 年）的政策性银行债，可作为投资该类债券的业绩基准和标的指数。 数据来源：wind 风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。基金管理人承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资 产，但不保证本基金一定盈利，也不保证最低收益。基金管理人提醒投资人基金投资的"买者自负"原 则，在做出投资决策后，基金运营状况与基金净值变化引致的投资风险，由投资人自行负担。基金的过 往业绩及其净值高低并不预示其未来业绩表现，基金管理人管理的其他基金的业绩不构成对本基金业绩 表现的保证。投资人购买基金，既可能按其持有份额分享基金投资所产生的收益，也可能承担基金投资 所带来的损失。投资人应当认真阅读《基金合同》《招募说明书》等基金法律文件，全面认识本基金的 风险收益特征和产品特性，并根据自身的投资目的、投资期限、投资经验、资产状况等判断基金是否和 投资人的风险承受能力相适应，理性判断市场，谨慎做出投资决策。本材料中相关信息来源于基金管 ...

Core Insights - Bloomberg is the first global index provider to include Chinese bonds in mainstream global indices, offering a unique perspective on the Chinese bond market through the Bloomberg China Fixed Income Index series [3] - The Bloomberg China Aggregate Index recorded a return of 0.65% in October, with a year-to-date return of 0.71% [5] - The return for the China Treasury and Policy Bank Index in October was 0.66%, while the year-to-date return for the Chinese yuan measured in local currency was 0.60%, improving its ranking from 26th to 25th among 27 currencies [5] Index Performance - Long-term bonds outperformed short-term bonds in October, with returns for various maturity indices as follows: - 1-3 years: 0.28% - 3-5 years: 0.45% - 5-7 years: 0.60% - 7-10 years: 0.83% - 10+ years: 1.54% [5][7] - The China Aggregate Index level stands at 244.67, with a year-to-date return of 0.71% [7] Market Dynamics - In August, the total outflow of funds from the Chinese bond market reached 99.7 billion yuan, a decrease from the record 303.8 billion yuan in July [13] - The outflow from Chinese government bonds slowed to 14.5 billion yuan, while foreign capital outflow from negotiable certificates of deposit (NCD) decreased to 67.8 billion yuan [13] - The opening of the bond repurchase market to foreign investors may help alleviate short-term outflows and support the long-term internationalization of the Chinese bond market [13] Credit Market Insights - Recent credit events in the U.S. have impacted Asian credit spreads, which widened to 66 basis points, indicating a potential risk in the market [13] - The geopolitical landscape, including U.S.-China trade tensions and the Dutch government's intervention in ASML, adds uncertainty to the global economic outlook [13]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market experienced marginal tightening in liquidity last week, with the 10-year government bond yield closing at 1.805%, showing a slight decrease of 0.1 basis points, and the overall market remains in a sideways trend awaiting clearer signals [1][4]. Market Review - The yield changes for various maturities from November 7 to November 14, 2025, were as follows: 1-year (+0.59 BP), 2-year (-0.25 BP), 3-year (-0.52 BP), 5-year (-0.57 BP), 7-year (-0.1 BP), 10-year (-0.02 BP), 30-year (-1 BP), and 50-year (+4.8 BP) [2][3]. - The 10-year government bond yield fluctuated between 1.8% and 1.8125% during the week, ultimately closing at 1.805% [4]. Primary Market - A total of 100 bonds were issued last week, amounting to 726.87 billion yuan, including 6 government bonds worth 309.32 billion yuan, 21 policy bank bonds worth 132.48 billion yuan, and 73 local government bonds worth 285.07 billion yuan [7]. - For the upcoming week (November 17 to November 21), 60 bonds are planned for issuance, totaling 400.66 billion yuan [7]. International Market - The U.S. government shutdown ended, leading to concerns about economic impacts and a downward adjustment in expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.15%, an increase of approximately 5 basis points for the week [8][10]. Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a total of 1.122 trillion yuan in 7-day reverse repos last week, resulting in a net injection of 626.2 billion yuan [12]. - The PBOC plans to conduct an 800 billion yuan reverse repo operation on November 17 to maintain liquidity in the banking system [12]. Institutional Perspectives - Tianfeng Securities noted that the bond market remains in a narrow trading range, with both bulls and bears exercising caution. The potential for a seasonal rally at year-end may not materialize due to uncertainties in the banking sector and insurance liabilities [19]. - Huaxi Securities suggested that with financial data indicating a need for broader monetary easing, the likelihood of a rate cut by year-end or early next year is increasing, with the possibility of the PBOC prioritizing bond purchases to create a more accommodative environment [20]. - Industrial perspectives from Xingye Securities indicated that the current state of the bond market may not change soon, and investors should remain patient for improved opportunities [21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report In August 2025, the leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market increased slightly month - on - month and was lower than the same period in previous years. The total bond custody scale of China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. (CCDC) and Shanghai Clearing House increased. Different institutions had different investment preferences for various bonds, with commercial banks increasing their allocation of treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds, and broad - based funds increasing their holdings of local government bonds [1][2][50]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bank - Inter Leverage Ratio In late August, the inter - bank bond market leverage ratio was 106.88%, up 0.07 pct from the end of the previous month, and generally lower than the leverage ratio in the same period of previous years [1]. 3.2 Custody Data Overview In August 2025, the total bond custody scale of CCDC and Shanghai Clearing House was 174.54 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 1.506 trillion yuan. Among them, CCDC's custody scale increased by 1.5382 trillion yuan, and Shanghai Clearing House's decreased by 32.2 billion yuan. Treasury bonds, local government bonds, policy - bank bonds, and medium - term notes contributed to the increase, while enterprise bonds, short - term financing bills, ultra - short - term financing bills, directional instruments, and inter - bank certificates of deposit contributed to the decrease [2][12]. 3.3 By Bond Type - **Interest - rate Bonds**: In August 2025, the total custody scale of major interest - rate bonds was 116.60 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 1.7871 trillion yuan. Commercial banks were the main buyers, increasing their holdings by 1.2979 trillion yuan. Broad - based funds, insurance institutions, etc. also increased their holdings, while overseas institutions reduced their holdings [3][49]. - **Credit Bonds**: The total custody scale of major credit bonds was 16.06 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 23 billion yuan. Commercial banks were the main buyers, increasing their holdings by 54.4 billion yuan. Broad - based funds and securities companies were the main sellers, reducing their holdings by 18.1 billion yuan and 14.8 billion yuan respectively. Insurance institutions and overseas institutions also reduced their holdings [3][49]. - **Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit**: The custody scale was 20.38 trillion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 355.6 billion yuan. Broad - based funds and commercial banks were the main sellers [3][49]. 3.4 By Institution - **Commercial Banks**: The custody scale of major bonds was 85.29 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 1.153 trillion yuan. They increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds and credit bonds by 1.2979 trillion yuan and 54.4 billion yuan respectively, and reduced their holdings of inter - bank certificates of deposit by 199.3 billion yuan [4][50]. - **Broad - based Funds**: The custody scale of major bonds was 37.38 trillion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 172.3 billion yuan. They increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds by 120.7 billion yuan and reduced their holdings of credit bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit by 18.1 billion yuan and 274.9 billion yuan respectively [4][50]. - **Overseas Institutions**: The custody scale of major bonds was 3.69 trillion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 98.8 billion yuan. They reduced their holdings of interest - rate bonds, credit bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit by 27.5 billion yuan, 3.5 billion yuan, and 67.8 billion yuan respectively [4][54]. - **Insurance Institutions**: The custody scale of major bonds was 4.26 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 43.2 billion yuan. They increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds by 49.5 billion yuan and reduced their holdings of credit bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit by 5.9 billion yuan and 0.4 billion yuan respectively [4][54]. - **Securities Companies**: The custody scale of major bonds was 2.64 trillion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 2 billion yuan. They increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds by 13.4 billion yuan and reduced their holdings of credit bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit by 14.8 billion yuan and 0.6 billion yuan respectively [4][54]. - **Credit Unions**: The custody scale of major bonds was 2 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 11.9 billion yuan. They increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds and credit bonds by 22.1 billion yuan and 0.7 billion yuan respectively, and reduced their holdings of inter - bank certificates of deposit by 10.8 billion yuan [5][55].

Market Overview - The funding environment was tight at the beginning of the week but eased later, maintaining overall balance [1] - The bond market experienced fluctuations due to news regarding fund fee rate adjustments and potential cancellation of tax exemptions for bond funds, leading to a rise in yields [1][4] - The 10-year government bond yield surpassed 1.8%, reaching a new high since April, before retreating later in the week due to weak export and financial data, as well as rumors of the central bank restarting bond purchases [1][4] Yield Changes - As of September 12, 2025, the yields for various maturities changed as follows: 1-year (0.41BP), 2-year (2.14BP), 3-year (0.97BP), 5-year (0.18BP), 7-year (2.25BP), 10-year (4.1BP), 30-year (7.15BP), and 50-year (7.75BP) compared to September 5, 2025 [2][3] Bond Market Dynamics - On Monday, the bond market weakened due to new fund fee regulations, with the 10-year bond yield rising to 1.784% [4] - On Tuesday, significant redemptions in index bond funds led to a quick rise in yields, with the 10-year bond yield reaching 1.795% [4] - By Wednesday, the yield peaked at 1.8325% before slightly retreating to 1.815% [4] - On Thursday, rumors of the central bank's bond purchases helped restore market sentiment, causing yields to drop [4] - By Friday, the central bank announced a 600 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, contributing to further yield declines [4] Government Bond Issuance - A total of 83 bonds were issued last week, amounting to 10,345.42 billion yuan, including 5,663.70 billion yuan in government bonds [8] - For the upcoming week (September 15-19, 2025), 69 bonds are planned for issuance, totaling 5,005.19 billion yuan [8] International Bond Market - The U.S. Treasury market saw a slight rebound after reaching multi-month lows, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping to 4.06% [9] - The U.S. August CPI rose by 2.9%, slightly above the previous value of 2.7%, while core CPI remained stable at 3.1% [10][12] Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted 12,645 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations last week, resulting in a net injection of 1,961 billion yuan [13] - An announcement was made for a 600 billion yuan buyout reverse repurchase operation scheduled for September 15, 2025 [13] Economic Indicators - The consumer price index (CPI) in August remained stable, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.4% [15] - The total social financing scale increased by 26.56 trillion yuan in the first eight months of 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 8.8% [16] Institutional Perspectives - Huazhong Securities noted that the bond market sentiment remains fragile, with potential opportunities for long-term investments despite current volatility [19] - Financial institutions suggest a "barbell" strategy for bond investments, focusing on medium to high-grade credit bonds in the short term and long-term government bonds [19]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the macroeconomic environment, particularly focusing on the bond market and real estate sector in China, highlighting the impact of various economic indicators and policies on market dynamics [1][2][3][5][6][7]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Economic Improvement**: August PMI data indicates a marginal improvement in economic conditions, with a PMI of 49.4, suggesting a slowdown in the decline of manufacturing activity. However, weak demand and significant employment pressure persist [3][7]. - **Real Estate Sector**: There is a slight recovery in high-frequency sales data for real estate, attributed to low base effects and relaxed loan policies in major cities. However, overall investment remains low, with no significant improvement in government or real estate investments [5][6][7]. - **Interest Rate Trends**: The central bank's monetary policy remains stable, with expectations that anti-involution and de-leveraging in real estate could raise the interest rate benchmark by 15 basis points annually. This change is anticipated to enhance social capital investment returns, although the execution will take time [1][9][10]. - **Bond Market Dynamics**: The bond market is primarily influenced by stock market sentiment, with a strong correlation observed. A 100-point change in the Shanghai Composite Index corresponds to a 4 basis point change in the 10-year government bond yield [13][17]. - **Liquidity and Financing**: The total financing needs for interest rates from September to December are estimated at around 4 trillion yuan, significantly lower than the previous year's 6 trillion yuan. The bond issuance pace is expected to be uneven, with a concentration of new local government debt likely in September and October [19][25][26]. Additional Important Insights - **Investment Indicators**: Indicators for investments in rebar and cement show continued low demand, with no signs of improvement in government-led or real estate investments [6]. - **Future Economic Outlook**: While there are signs of marginal improvement in economic conditions, structural issues such as weak demand and employment pressures remain unresolved. Close monitoring of macroeconomic data and policy changes is essential for assessing future economic trends [7][14]. - **Market Sentiment**: The market is currently experiencing a "see-saw" effect between stocks and bonds, with expectations that this trend will continue in the coming months. The overall market sentiment remains cautious, influenced by upcoming events and economic data releases [14][26][27]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the macroeconomic environment, particularly in relation to the bond and real estate markets.

Core Insights - The report indicates that commercial banks are increasing their allocation to interest rate bonds, while broad-based funds are reducing their holdings in government bonds and policy financial bonds [4][5][51]. Group 1: Interbank Leverage Ratio - As of the end of July, the interbank market leverage ratio was 106.81%, down from 107.64% at the end of the previous month, indicating a decrease of 0.83 percentage points and remaining below historical levels for the same period [2][11]. Group 2: Custody Data Overview - In July 2025, the total custody scale of bonds at China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. (CCDC) and Shanghai Clearing House reached 173.03 trillion yuan, an increase of 174.49 billion yuan from the previous month [3][14]. Group 3: By Bond Type - The total custody scale of major interest rate bonds (government bonds, local government bonds, policy bank bonds) reached 114.81 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 143.74 billion yuan. Commercial banks were the main buyers, increasing their holdings by 154.99 billion yuan, while broad-based funds, securities companies, and foreign institutions reduced their holdings [4][51]. - The custody scale of major credit bonds (corporate bonds, medium-term notes, short-term financing bonds, and ultra-short-term financing bonds) was 16.04 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 20.07 billion yuan. Broad-based funds and commercial banks were the main buyers, increasing their holdings by 116.8 billion yuan and 71.7 billion yuan, respectively [4][30][51]. - The custody scale of interbank certificates of deposit was 20.74 trillion yuan, a decrease of 37.43 billion yuan, with commercial banks and foreign institutions being the main sellers [4][47][51]. Group 4: By Institution - The custody scale of commercial banks reached 84.13 trillion yuan, increasing by 137.58 billion yuan. They increased their holdings in interest rate bonds and credit bonds by 154.99 billion yuan and 7.17 billion yuan, respectively, while reducing their holdings in interbank certificates of deposit by 24.58 billion yuan [5][52]. - The custody scale of broad-based funds was 37.55 trillion yuan, decreasing by 83.7 billion yuan. They increased their holdings in credit bonds by 116.8 billion yuan but reduced their holdings in interest rate bonds and interbank certificates of deposit by 117.9 billion yuan and 2.26 billion yuan, respectively [5][52]. - Foreign institutions had a custody scale of 3.79 trillion yuan, decreasing by 301.6 billion yuan, with reductions in interest rate bonds, interbank certificates of deposit, and credit bonds by 129 billion yuan, 167.3 billion yuan, and 5.4 billion yuan, respectively [5][57].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market experienced fluctuations with a slight decline in yields, influenced by the recovery of the equity market and the central bank's liquidity measures. The 10-year government bond yield fell by 1.68 basis points to 1.69% over the week [1][4]. Market Overview - The bond market saw a total issuance of 61 bonds amounting to 806.51 billion yuan, including 4.6855 billion yuan in government bonds and 1.725 billion yuan in policy bank bonds [7]. - The central bank conducted a buyout reverse repurchase operation of 700 billion yuan to maintain liquidity, resulting in a net injection of 163.5 billion yuan into the market [13][14]. Yield Changes - The yield curve for government bonds showed varied changes from August 1 to August 8, with the 10-year yield decreasing by 1.68 basis points to 1.6891% [2][3]. - The 30-year and 10-year futures contracts rose by 0.19% and 0.18%, respectively, indicating a bullish sentiment in the futures market [6]. International Market Context - The U.S. Treasury market showed signs of weakness, with yields rising by 6-8 basis points, reflecting a decrease in demand for newly issued bonds [8][9]. - The market anticipates three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year, with an 88.9% probability for a 25 basis point cut in September [11]. Institutional Insights - Analysts suggest that the recent issuance of local government bonds exceeded expectations, indicating a supportive stance from the central bank and a pursuit of yield by institutions [17][18]. - The bond market is expected to remain in a range-bound trading pattern, with specific attention to the 10-year government bond yield around 1.7% [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - The recent economic indicators and policy changes have led to a recovery in the bond market, with a notable decline in bond yields, particularly the 10-year government bond yield, which fell to approximately 1.70% [1][4][6]. Market Overview - The bond market experienced a general decline in yields across various maturities from July 25 to August 1, with the 10-year yield decreasing by 2.65 basis points [2][3]. - The issuance of government bonds totaled 672.435 billion yuan across 92 bonds, with significant demand for a 50-year special government bond issued at a competitive rate [8][9]. Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for July was reported at 49.3%, indicating a slight decline, while the non-manufacturing index was at 50.1%, also down by 0.4 percentage points [19]. - The U.S. labor market showed signs of weakness, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below expectations, which may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [12]. Policy Changes - Starting August 8, a value-added tax will be reinstated on interest income from newly issued government bonds, which may lead to a short-term boost in bond market activity but could also shift funds towards credit bonds in the long term [1][20]. - The Central Bank conducted a total of 16.632 billion yuan in reverse repos during the week, maintaining liquidity in the market [15][17]. Institutional Perspectives - Analysts from Guojin Securities suggest that the new VAT on bond interest may lead to higher issuance rates for new bonds, creating a yield spread between new and existing bonds [21]. - Financial institutions anticipate continued monetary easing, with potential rate cuts expected to support the bond market, projecting that the 10-year government bond yield could trend towards 1.5% [21].