彭博是全球首家将中国债券纳入全球主流指数的指数提供商。彭博中国固定收益指数系 列作为衡量中国债券市场的旗舰指数，为全球投资者提供了清晰且独特视角和观察。 《彭博中国固定收益指数月报》 由彭博指数团队和彭博行业研究分析师共同撰写，为 您呈现月度指数回顾、短期宏观经济和债市展望。 6月关键洞察 收益指数月报 2025年6月 所有待偿期限指数回报 彭博中国高流动性信用债（LCC）指数 中资美元信用债（功夫债）指数 中国综合指数评级加权指数 中资美元信用债评级加权指数 彭博行业研究观点 彭博指数团队与彭博行业研究联合发布 6月，彭博中国综合指数（衡量中国债券市场的旗舰指数）录得回报为0.47%，年至今回报为 0.87%。在此期间，其30天波动率呈下降趋势。 中国国债和政策性银行债指数6月录得0.48%的回报。以本币计价，人民币在全球综合指数内 27种货币中的排名升至第24位，年至今回报率为0.76%。以美元计价，其年至今回报率为 2.64%，排名末位。 | Index Name | Ticker | | 1D Rtn MTD Rtn YTD Rtn | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

央行：境外机构在中国债券市场的托管余额4.4万亿元，占比2.3% 金十数据6月30日讯，央行发布2025年5月份金融市场运行情况。截至5月末，境外机构在中国债券市场 的托管余额4.4万亿元，占中国债券市场托管余额的比重为2.3%。其中，境外机构在银行间债券市场的 债券托管余额4.3万亿元；分券种看，境外机构持有国债2.1万亿元、占比48.5%，同业存单1.2万亿元、 占比28.0%，政策性银行债券0.8万亿元、占比19.3%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The central bank's recent operations and economic data indicate a mixed but generally supportive environment for the bond market, with expectations of further actions to stimulate the economy and manage interest rates [1][20]. Market Overview - The central bank conducted net withdrawal operations last week, leading to fluctuations in the funding environment due to tax payments and MLF maturities [1]. - Economic data released during the week exceeded expectations, contributing to a slight adjustment in bond yields, with the 10-year government bond yield decreasing by approximately 0.5 basis points to 1.64% [1][4]. - The issuance of local government bonds is set to exceed 580 billion yuan, with net financing expected to surpass 500 billion yuan, marking the highest levels since December 2024 and February 2025 [1][8]. Bond Yield Changes - The yield curve for government bonds showed declines across various maturities, with the 1-year and 2-year yields decreasing by 4.5 basis points and 4.7 basis points, respectively [2]. - The 10-year government bond yield saw a minor decline of 0.44 basis points, reflecting a broader trend of decreasing yields across the curve [3][4]. Trading Activity - The trading of long-term government bonds has seen strong buying interest, with the 30-year futures contract rising by 0.71% and the 10-year contract increasing by 0.14% [6]. - The overall bond market remains in a favorable environment, although further declines in interest rates may require additional catalysts such as central bank bond purchases [1][20]. Economic Data Insights - Industrial output and service sector growth have shown positive trends, with industrial value-added output growing by 5.8% year-on-year in May, and retail sales increasing by 6.4% [16][17]. - Fixed asset investment also demonstrated growth, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7% for the first five months of the year [18]. Institutional Perspectives - Analysts suggest that the current favorable conditions in the bond market are supported by both fundamental and liquidity factors, with expectations for a potential "bond bull" market [20]. - The resumption of government bond trading by the central bank is viewed as a long-term positive, although short-term impacts may vary [21].

具体来看，周一，周末消息称中美经贸磋商机制首次会议将在伦敦举行，通胀和进出口数据显示基本面仍偏弱，10年期国债活跃券 250011收益率早盘略有下行，午后回升，收盘时上行0.25BP，报1.655%。周二，市场继续等待中美经贸磋商结果，收益率维持震荡， 250011收益率涨0.1BP，报1.656%。周三，中美达成协议框架，暂无增量信息落地，资金面宽松推动收益率下行，250011收益率下跌 1.45BP至1.643%。周四，现券收益率低开，随后在止盈压力下震荡走高，250011收益率尾盘上涨0.4BP，报1.647%。周五，权益持续走 弱下债市小幅走强，央行公告将开展4000亿元买断式逆回购操作，收益率跌幅尾盘走阔，250011收益率下行0.35BP至1.6425%。 国债期货震荡上行，TL表现最强，30年期主力合约全周上涨0.65%，10年期主力合约上涨0.11%，5年期主力合约上涨0.05%，2年期主力 合约上涨0.02%。 中证转债指数全周震荡，周线微跌0.02%，收盘价报433.84。 一级市场 新华财经北京6月16日电（王柘）上周（2025年6月9日至6月13日）资金面维持宽松，资金利率一度下破1. ...

——4 月交易所及银行间托管数据点评 报告日期： 2025-5-21 [Table_Author] 首席分析师：颜子琦 [Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 点评报告 债市机构已"全面上车" 上一次发生机构全面增配的时间点为 2024 年 1 月。回顾历史数据，我们 发现托管量的变化中广义基金与商业银行通常走势相反，债市表现偏强时 通常广义基金增持、商业银行减持，反之亦然，而机构全面增配可能说明 一方面其在趋势性行情下担心踏空风险；另一方面，4 月债券供给量实际 并不多，也反映了"先上车"的持券意愿。 5 月债市出现"小碎步"回调，波动已经明显降低，多数机构持券观望。 5 月初 10 年国债在中美联合声明后，由 1.63%逐步回调至 1.70%，上行 7bp，但该过程历经约 20 天，波动已经较此前（2-3 月）明显降低，说明 多数机构的持券意愿依然较强，债市多头并未出现瓦解趋势，从边际表现 上看二级高频交易数据也暂未出现明显抛压。 展望后市，在债市回调背景下不乏止盈资金，但最近一份托管数据显示目 前机构持仓意愿相对较强，目前机构行为依然对债市偏有利，对应行情或 是上有顶、下有底的窄幅震荡 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report In March 2025, the leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market increased month - on - month but was slightly lower than the historical average. The total bond custody scale of China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. (CCDC) and Shanghai Clearing House increased. Different institutions had different investment preferences for various bond types, with commercial banks significantly increasing their allocation of interest - rate bonds and broad - based funds increasing their allocation of inter - bank certificates of deposit [1][2][4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Bank - Inter Leverage Ratio: Up Month - on - Month, Lower than the Same Period in Previous Years At the end of March, the inter - bank bond market leverage ratio was 107.03%, up 0.8 pct from 106.23% at the end of the previous month, and slightly lower than the historical average [1][12]. 3.2 Custody Data Overview In March 2025, the total bond custody scale of CCDC and Shanghai Clearing House was 166.22 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 2655.6 billion yuan. CCDC's custody scale increased by 1308.9 billion yuan, and Shanghai Clearing House's increased by 1346.7 billion yuan. Treasury bonds, local government bonds, policy - bank bonds, medium - term notes, and inter - bank certificates of deposit contributed to the increase, while enterprise bonds, short - term financing bonds, and private placement notes contributed to the decrease [2][15]. 3.3 By Bond Type: Net Financing of Treasury Bonds and Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit Increased, Credit Bonds Had Net Repayment - **Interest - rate Bonds**: In March 2025, the total custody scale of major interest - rate bonds was 109.14 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 1584.1 billion yuan. Commercial banks and broad - based funds were the main buyers, increasing their holdings by 814.8 billion yuan and 401.4 billion yuan respectively. For treasury bonds, commercial banks were the main buyers; for policy - bank bonds, broad - based funds were the main buyers; for local government bonds, commercial banks and broad - based funds increased their holdings [3][17][48]. - **Credit Bonds**: The total custody scale of major credit bonds was 15.54 trillion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 1.01 billion yuan. Broad - based funds and commercial banks increased their holdings. For enterprise bonds, all institutions reduced their holdings; for medium - term notes, commercial banks were the main buyers; for short - term financing bonds, broad - based funds were the main buyers; for ultra - short - term financing bonds, multiple institutions reduced their holdings [3][29][48]. - **Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit**: The custody scale was 21.18 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 1115 billion yuan. Broad - based funds were the main buyers, increasing their holdings by 1306.6 billion yuan, while commercial banks were the main sellers, reducing their holdings by 264.8 billion yuan [3][45][48]. 3.4 By Institution: Commercial Banks Significantly Increased Allocation of Interest - rate Bonds, Broad - based Funds Increased Allocation of Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - **Commercial Banks**: The custody scale of major bonds was 80.04 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 561.1 billion yuan. They increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds and credit bonds by 814.8 billion yuan and 11.1 billion yuan respectively, and reduced their holdings of inter - bank certificates of deposit by 264.8 billion yuan. They increased their allocation of treasury bonds and local government bonds in interest - rate bonds and medium - term notes in credit bonds [4][49]. - **Broad - based Funds**: The custody scale of major bonds was 35.53 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 1729.7 billion yuan. They increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds, credit bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit by 401.4 billion yuan, 21.8 billion yuan, and 1306.6 billion yuan respectively. They increased their allocation of local government bonds, treasury bonds, and policy - bank bonds in interest - rate bonds and medium - term notes and short - term financing bonds in credit bonds [4][49]. - **Overseas Institutions**: The custody scale of major bonds was 4.20 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 146.5 billion yuan. They increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and credit bonds by 3.2 billion yuan, 141.1 billion yuan, and 2.2 billion yuan respectively. They mainly increased their allocation of treasury bonds in interest - rate bonds and slightly increased their allocation of medium - term notes, short - term financing bonds, and ultra - short - term financing bonds in credit bonds [4][53]. - **Insurance Institutions**: The custody scale of major bonds was 4.03 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 93.5 billion yuan. They increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit by 93.1 billion yuan and 1.3 billion yuan respectively, and reduced their holdings of credit bonds by 1 billion yuan. They mainly increased their allocation of local government bonds and treasury bonds in interest - rate bonds and slightly reduced their allocation of medium - term notes and enterprise bonds in credit bonds [4][53]. - **Securities Companies**: The custody scale of major bonds was 2.76 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 118.1 billion yuan. They increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds, credit bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit by 88.7 billion yuan, 3.3 billion yuan, and 26.1 billion yuan respectively. They mainly increased their allocation of treasury bonds in interest - rate bonds and increased their allocation of medium - term notes in credit bonds [4][53]. - **Credit Unions**: The custody scale of major bonds was 1.89 trillion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 14.8 billion yuan. They increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds by 21.6 billion yuan and reduced their holdings of credit bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit by 0.63 billion yuan and 35.8 billion yuan respectively. They increased their allocation of treasury bonds, policy - bank bonds, and local government bonds in interest - rate bonds [5][54].

彭博是全球首家将中国债券纳入全球主流指数的指数提供商。彭博中国固定收益指数系 列作为衡量中国债券市场的旗舰指数，为全球投资者提供了清晰且独特视角和观察。 《彭博中国固定收益指数月报》 由彭博指数团队和彭博行业研究分析师共同撰写，为 您呈现月度指数回顾、短期宏观经济和债市展望。 3月关键洞察 彭博中国固定 收益指数月报 2025年3月 彭博指数团队与彭博行业研究联合发布 彭博中国综合指数（衡量中国债券市场的旗舰指数）继上个月录得-0.69%后，在3月录 得-0.26%的回报，年至今回报率为-0.66%。在此期间，其30天波动率呈上升趋势。 中国国债和政策性银行债指数3月录得-0.27%的回报。以本币计价，人民币的年至今回报率 为-0.74%，在全球综合指数内27种货币中排名第23位（上月为第25位）；而以美元计价，人 民币的年至今回报率为-0.09%，排名保持在第25位。 扫码阅读本期全文，您可了解以下指数3月表现： 所有待偿期限指数回报 彭博中国高流动性信用债（LCC）指数 中资美元信用债（功夫债）指数 ESG加权中国综合指数、ESG加权中资美元信用债指数及其基准指数 彭博行业研究观点 扫码阅读本期全文，您还 ...