晨会纪要（2025/11/25） 编辑人 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.11.25） 基金研究 ETF 简称迎统一规范，宽基指数获得资金净流入——公募基金周报 公司研究 传统主业稳健向前，复合集流体放量已在途——英联股份（002846）公司深 度报告 行业研究 人形机器人量产路线清晰，关注主要企业量产节奏——机械设备行业 2026 年 度投资策略报告 证 四季度服装出口预计向好，关注家居相关政策催化——轻工制造&纺织服饰 行业周报 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 晨会纪要（2025/11/25） 基金研究 ETF 简称迎统一规范，宽基指数获得资金净流入——公募基金周报 宋 旸（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150517100002） 张笑晨（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150525070001） 1、本周市场回顾 上周统计区间为 2025 年 11 月 17 日至 2025 年 11 月 21 日，权益市场 ...

今天（11月23日），2025（第十九届）动力锂电池技术及产业发展国际学术论坛在高邮举办，这一全球 电池行业高规格、高层次的学术盛会首次落户高邮，吸引了来自清华大学、中国科学院等机构的300多 位顶尖专家参加，为我市动力锂电池产业高质量发展注入强劲动能。 作为长三角"光储充"产业新高地，高邮已形成从硅料、电池片到储能系统的完整产业链。截至目前，当 地产业规模突破400亿元，目标2030年打造千亿级产业集群，论坛的举办进一步推动了高邮在新能源领 域的产学研融合与产业升级。 北京理工大学教授吴川表示，本次会议涵盖二次电池领域最新研究成果和前沿研究方向，希望推动学术 交流。 清华大学教授邱新平说，高邮处于新能源产业快速发展期，是江苏省动力电池新能源产业重要节点，希 望地方政府抓住新技术、新方向，引入高附加值技术，如电动飞机、低空经济急需的高能量密度电池相 关技术。 来源丨扬州广电"扬帆"手机频道 江苏英联复合集流体有限公司总经理翁伟嘉介绍，过去三年公司实现复合集流体应用于锂金属电池，实 现零着火、零安全事故的解决方案。高邮可通过相关会议打造新能源光储充产业名片，吸引更多企业和 本届论坛以"高能量密度动力电池"为主题 ...

Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's revenue and profit have been declining since 2022 due to multiple market competition factors [3][4] - The management's compensation structure includes a base salary and performance-based salary, aimed at incentivizing management to drive sustainable development [3] - The company is actively seeking new business growth points to expand profit margins while maintaining its core business [3][10] Group 2: Business Operations - The composite flow project is currently in the sample testing phase, with no specific timeline for production due to the lengthy verification process [6][7] - The new tobacco business is progressing according to plan, with a focus on both domestic and international markets [3][5] - The company maintains independent operations from its controlling shareholder, ensuring compliance with legal regulations [9] Group 3: Market and Regulatory Environment - Stricter global regulations on e-cigarettes are expected to increase industry barriers, leading to market consolidation [5] - The company is adapting its product structure based on market competition, which has resulted in profit changes exceeding revenue changes [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company plans to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs while focusing on technological innovation to improve product quality [10][11] - There are no current indications that the controlling shareholder's legal issues will affect the company's control structure [10][11]

Investment Rating - The report rates the mechanical equipment industry as "Outperforming the Market" [1] Core Insights - The mechanical industry is showing signs of recovery with most companies improving product competitiveness and operational management, leading to resilient performance [1] - The report highlights structural opportunities in cyclical growth, emphasizing the importance of exports and technological advancements [1][2] - The mechanical sector is expected to benefit from growth in humanoid robots, lithium batteries, and nuclear power, with significant investment opportunities identified [2][3] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The mechanical industry has outperformed the market with a year-to-date increase of 33.92%, ranking 7th among 31 sectors [12] - Valuations are at historical averages, with a current P/E ratio of 32, indicating a recovery from previous lows [19][25] - Revenue and net profit for the sector have shown growth, with a 6.01% increase in revenue and a 13.91% increase in net profit year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025 [28] 2. Growth Directions - Humanoid robots are highlighted as a key future industry, with Tesla leading the charge in production plans, aiming for mass production by 2026 [2][39] - The lithium battery sector is experiencing demand growth driven by energy storage and technological breakthroughs in solid-state batteries [2] - The nuclear power industry is also poised for growth, with advancements in fourth-generation nuclear technology and fusion research [2] 3. Domestic Demand and Export Opportunities - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand, particularly in engineering machinery and coal chemical industries, which are expected to drive investment [3] - The export chain is anticipated to improve due to reduced tariff disturbances and renewed interest in inventory replenishment following interest rate cuts [4] 4. Key Investment Areas - The report suggests focusing on high-value components in humanoid robots, such as screws, reducers, and sensors, which are critical for production efficiency [49] - The solid-state battery market is highlighted for its potential, with ongoing technological advancements [2] - The coal chemical sector is expected to see rapid development, driven by energy security and economic stimulus measures [3]

Group 1: New Energy Vehicles - The overall holding in the new energy vehicle sector increased, with upstream lithium mines, midstream, core components, and new technologies rising, while holdings in complete vehicles and charging piles decreased [2][3] - The holding proportion of the new energy vehicle sector in Q3 2025 is 5.28%, up 1.13 percentage points from the previous quarter [2][3] - Upstream lithium mine holdings rose by 1.24 percentage points to 2.86% in Q3 2025; midstream holdings increased by 0.69 percentage points to 8.92% [2][3] Group 2: Renewable Energy - The photovoltaic sector's holding proportion in Q3 2025 increased to 4.18%, up 1.43 percentage points from the previous quarter [3] - In the photovoltaic sector, silicon materials, silicon wafers, components, and inverters saw a decline in holdings, while battery holdings increased [3] - The wind power sector's holding proportion rose to 3.46%, with increases in the complete machine, tower & sea pile, and submarine cable segments [3] Group 3: Nuclear Power - The nuclear power sector's holding proportion decreased to 0.73%, down 0.05 percentage points from the previous quarter [4] Group 4: Industrial Control & Power Equipment - The overall holding in the industrial control and power electronics sector in Q3 2025 is 6.21%, up 1.06 percentage points from the previous quarter [6] - The power equipment sector's holding proportion increased to 1.81%, up 0.33 percentage points from the previous quarter [6] Group 5: Energy Storage - The overall holding in the energy storage sector decreased to 5.60%, down 2.20 percentage points from the previous quarter [6] - Energy storage batteries saw an increase in holdings by 2.04 percentage points to 7.97% in Q3 2025, while PCS holdings decreased slightly [6]

Macro and Strategy - The report discusses the integration of AI in financial research, transitioning from "universal models" to specialized AI agents, enhancing efficiency in tasks like financial modeling and policy analysis [8][9] - AI tools like AlphaEngine can quickly generate DCF models and analyze policy impacts, improving decision-making processes for investors [8][9] Non-Banking Financial Sector - The report anticipates a positive interaction between macroeconomics and capital markets in 2026, driven by policy guidance and industrial upgrades, creating structural opportunities in technology and green economy sectors [10] - The capital market is expected to achieve a more balanced funding structure, with increased investments in public funds and insurance products, stabilizing market fluctuations [10][11] Home Appliance Industry - The home appliance sector showed resilience with a 4% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3 2025, despite a slowdown due to external sales pressures [11][12] - White goods revenue reached 268.7 billion, growing 5% year-on-year, while small appliances saw a 6.3% increase in revenue [12][14] - The report highlights the strong performance of leading companies in the sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [12][14] Public Utilities and Environmental Protection - The report notes a 2.71% increase in the environmental index, with significant gains in the power generation sector, particularly in renewable energy [16] - The introduction of the "Ecological Environment Monitoring Regulations" is expected to enhance monitoring capabilities and support the growth of the environmental sector [16][17] Retail Industry - The retail sector is experiencing a low recovery phase, with a 4.5% year-on-year increase in retail sales for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a mixed performance across different segments [19][20] - The report emphasizes the divergence in performance among individual stocks, with some regional chains showing improved operational efficiency [19][20] Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage sector is characterized by a stable total volume but structural differentiation, with a notable decline in the liquor segment due to inventory adjustments [22][23] - The report highlights the growth of snack foods and beverages, with specific brands showing significant revenue increases [22][23] Medical Industry - The medical sector is witnessing a marginal improvement in revenue and profit, with innovative drugs and the CXO sector showing strong growth [29][30] - The report recommends focusing on undervalued stocks in the medical device and pharmacy sectors, which are expected to benefit from market stabilization [31][32] Media and Internet - The media sector has outperformed the broader market, with a 2.56% increase, driven by the popularity of AI platforms like Pokee AI [34][35] - The report suggests continued optimism for the media sector, highlighting advancements in AI technology that enhance operational efficiency [34][35]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company's carrier tape business maintains high utilization rates, with new product launches driving significant revenue growth. In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.526 billion yuan (YoY +13.74%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 176 million yuan (YoY -0.70%) [1][2] - The demand for electronic components such as MLCC is recovering, benefiting from AI infrastructure investments, which has led to a stable high utilization rate in the carrier tape business [2] - The company is actively expanding its overseas production capacity, with ongoing upgrades and new production lines for release in the near future, particularly in the fields of release films and composite conductive materials [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.526 billion yuan, with a net profit of 176 million yuan and a gross margin of 33.69% [1] - The third quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 564 million yuan (YoY +12.19%, QoQ +2.77%) and a net profit of 77 million yuan (YoY +38.53%, QoQ +19.55%) [1] Business Development - The company is upgrading its paper carrier tape base and has successfully penetrated the semiconductor market with plastic carrier tapes. The production capacity is being expanded in various locations, including the Philippines and Malaysia [2] - The self-manufactured base film for release films has entered mass production, with significant revenue growth and stable supply to major clients [2] - The company has signed cooperation agreements with multiple clients in the composite conductive materials sector, with a 40% increase in orders year-on-year [3] Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 260 million yuan, 345 million yuan, and 431 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 28.4%, 32.9%, and 25.0% [3][4]

（原标题：香港理工大学郑子剑：期望风投伙伴为"硬科技"落地赋能） 南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者 袁思杰 香港报道 随着粤港澳大湾区科创发展提速，如何将"硬科技"项目从一项实验室研究落地成改变未来的产品，成为了重要命题。 在2025香港金融科技周期间，香港理工大学软材料及器件讲座教授郑子剑对记者表示，"硬科技"初创企业多由高校教授及科研人员组成，虽技术 领先，但普遍缺乏市场经验与运营能力。理想的风投机构应帮助团队搭建具备落地能力的商业组织，并链接上下游产业链与政府资源，形成"技术 +市场"双轮驱动的转化模式。 郑子剑多年来致力于柔性电子与高比能电池的前沿研究，其团队在透气柔性电子材料与高比能电池等领域取得多项突破，部分成果已进入商业化 孵化阶段。其中，由郑子剑领导的《下一代动力储能电池复合集流体的中试与量产》是首批入选香港特区政府"产学研1+"计划的项目。 近年来，香港积极构建创科生态，设立如香港投资管理有限公司（港投公司）等政府引导基金。郑子剑认为，香港与内地应加强联动，特别是在 人才与产业链方面优势互补，"整合利用内地人才优势，能更好地填补香港在硬科技运营及工程师人才方面的短板，为香港初创企业注入强劲动 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese energy storage industry is expected to experience a surge in orders in the first half of 2025, with cumulative orders exceeding 250 GWh, representing a significant increase compared to the same period last year [1] - The shipment volume of energy storage systems reached 167 GWh in the first half of the year, marking an 86% year-on-year growth [1] - The lithium battery industry is witnessing an improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with signs of price increases across multiple segments, indicating a potential sustained price increase cycle starting next year [1] Market Review - Since October 2025, most segments of the lithium battery sector have rebounded, with the lithium mining sector leading the gains at 7%, while the smart driving sector saw the largest decline at -7.6% [2] - Monthly transaction volumes in the lithium battery sector have generally decreased, except for a slight increase in the new energy vehicle segment [2] New Energy Vehicles - In September, sales of new energy vehicles in China, Europe, and the U.S. reached 137,000, 33,000, and 17,000 units respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 22%, 36%, and 37% [3] - The increase in sales in China is attributed to policy support and a surge in new vehicle launches during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [3] - European markets saw significant growth due to post-holiday boosts and electric vehicle subsidy policies in countries like the UK and Spain [3] - In the U.S., sales rebounded in August as consumers rushed to purchase before subsidy cancellations, aided by dealer promotions [3] Energy Storage - In September, domestic energy storage installations in China were 4.0 GWh, showing a year-on-year increase of 69% but a month-on-month decline of 68% [4] - Cumulative installations from January to September reached 68.1 GWh, up 45% year-on-year [4] - In the U.S., energy storage installations in September were 2.3 GWh, down 21% year-on-year and 33% month-on-month, with cumulative installations for the year at 27.4 GWh, a 36% increase [4] - The overall market for energy storage remains robust, with significant sales figures reported [4] Lithium Battery Production - In October, production of lithium batteries is expected to increase by 3% to 9% month-on-month, with year-on-year growth rates between 21% and 50% [5] - Cumulative pre-production estimates for lithium carbonate, batteries, and other components show significant year-on-year increases, driven by rising demand [5] Lithium Battery Prices - Prices for lithium battery materials are rising, with lithium hexafluorophosphate seeing a monthly increase of 66% [6] - Prices for key materials such as positive and negative electrodes and electrolytes are generally increasing due to demand, while graphite prices are declining due to upstream cost reductions [6] New Technologies - The second half of 2025 marks a critical period for the engineering and industrialization of solid-state batteries and composite current collectors [7] - Significant increases in orders for pilot lines and equipment for vehicle-grade solid-state batteries are expected, with mass production anticipated to begin in late 2025 [7] Investment Recommendations - The lithium battery sector is poised for a new round of expansion driven by technological breakthroughs in solid-state batteries, leading to increased capital expenditures across the industry [8] - Key recommendations include leading companies in niche markets and those involved in solid-state technology, such as CATL, EVE Energy, and Keda Technology [8]

Core Insights - The lithium carbonate price reached 75,500 CNY/ton, up 3% from last month, while lithium hydroxide price increased by 0.4% to 72,000 CNY/ton [1][2] - In September, domestic wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.37 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 22% and a month-on-month increase of 16% [2][4] - The lithium battery sector has seen a recovery since October 2025, with the lithium mining sector leading with a 7% increase, while the smart driving sector experienced a decline of 7.6% [2][3] Industry Changes - The storage industry in China experienced a surge in orders, with cumulative orders exceeding 250 GWh, marking a significant increase compared to the previous year [3] - The shipment volume of storage systems reached 167 GWh in the first half of the year, reflecting an 86% year-on-year growth [3] - The lithium battery industry is expected to enter a sustained price increase cycle due to improving supply-demand dynamics and limited supply expansion [3] Market Performance - In September, the sales of new energy vehicles in China, Europe, and the US were 1.37 million, 330,000, and 170,000 units respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 22%, 36%, and 37% [4] - The penetration rates for new energy vehicles were 54% in China, 32% in Europe, and 14% in the US [4] - The domestic storage installation in September was 4.0 GWh, showing a year-on-year increase of 69% but a month-on-month decrease of 68% [5] Price Trends - Lithium battery material prices are on the rise, with lithium hexafluorophosphate seeing a monthly increase of 66% [6] - Prices for major materials such as resource products, positive and negative electrodes, and electrolytes have generally increased due to demand, while graphite materials have decreased due to upstream price declines [6] Investment Recommendations - The industry is expected to accelerate capital expenditure driven by a new round of lithium battery expansion and breakthroughs in solid-state technology [7] - Key recommendations include leading companies in niche segments and those involved in solid-state technology, such as CATL, EVE Energy, and Keda Technology [7]