晨会纪要 证券研究报告 2026 年 02 月 04 日 短期来看，市场受资源股重挫及国际贵金属价格波动影响，风险偏好承压， 但北交所结构性机会仍凸显。中长期需关注政策红利与产业升级共振下，专 精特新和硬科技企业的技术转化及订单释放能力。 | 周颖 S0800520080003 | | --- | zhouying@research.xbmail.com.cn 核心结论 分析师 【策略】资产的信号（20260203）：沃什冲击，结束了吗? "沃什冲击"是美元增信进程的开端，未来半年特朗普或将继续为修复美元 信用采取行动，可能带来油价的提升以及中美资产相对占优。但沃什上任后， 降息扩表可能超预期，市场回到弱美元交易，泛滥的流动性会更加泛滥。因 此坚定看好 AH 股/国债等人民币资产，行业配置上关注受益于周期复苏和流 动性泛滥的石油/化工/白酒/恒科。黄金短期可能难以大涨，但可保持战略配 置。美股有望受益于美元增信努力，而美债在供需拉扯下或维持震荡。 【计算机】AI Agent 浪潮来袭，CDN 有望开启新一轮成长周期 AI Agent 浪潮来袭，CDN 有望开启新一轮成长周期 【纺织服饰】波司登（3998.HK ...

新华社北京1月26日电 题："科技+时尚"，千亿羽绒服"温暖产业"加速发展 新华社记者李傲秋、杨绍功、唐弢 入冬以来，多轮寒潮席卷全国多地，寒冷天气推动全国羽绒服市场迅速升温。中国报告大厅数据显示，2025年我国羽绒服市场规模预计达到 2500亿元、2020年至2025年复合增长率达11.5%，增速明显高于全球平均水平。 记者调研发现，随着消费者对羽绒服的需求从"保暖"向"科技+时尚"拓展，科技赋能、设计创新、监管升级正推动羽绒服产业由规模扩张转向 结构升级、迈向高质量发展。 科技赋能，做强产业根基 原料与工艺是保证羽绒服产品品质的根基。随着行业发展，羽绒服原料、工艺和生产方式的升级正在悄然进行。 走进位于山东汶上县的济宁苏和服装有限公司，自动充绒机正精准地将指定重量的绒毛充进羽绒服内胆。"现在品牌企业普遍使用高蓬松度的 绒毛作为原料，保暖性能更好；而智能设备的应用，能够减少充绒时的误差，提升产品一致性。"公司副总经理王健说。 除了绒毛，面料的升级同样有助于提升羽绒服的性能。业内人士介绍，高密度的功能面料正逐步替代常规化纤面料，可带来防风防水、耐磨 耐脏等效果，并减少羽绒外溢。 2025年10月7日，中国品牌 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 World Brand 500 list was announced, with Bosideng ranking 449th, marking an 8-position increase, highlighting the ongoing breakthrough of Chinese brands in the global fashion industry [5][22][23] Group 1: Brand Performance - Bosideng is the only Chinese apparel brand on the list, showcasing its market competitiveness and global influence [5][22] - The brand's value has risen to 118.058 billion yuan, maintaining its position as the top seller in the Chinese market for 30 consecutive years [8][25] - The brand aims to transition from "Made in China" to "Created in China," reflecting its commitment to innovation and quality [8][25] Group 2: Strategic Focus - The theme of the summit was "From Data to Intelligence: Brand and Marketing Growth Models in the AI Era," emphasizing the importance of innovation in brand evolution [6][23] - Bosideng's strategy includes a focus on brand leadership, cultural integration, and leveraging global resources for high-quality development [5][23][34] - The company is committed to a "dual focus" strategy on down jackets and functional fashion technology apparel, aiming to lead in the global fashion industry [34] Group 3: Technological Integration - Bosideng has integrated AI into its entire value chain, reducing product development time from 100 days to 27 days and cutting costs by over 60% [14][31] - The company has developed an industrial internet platform that automates over 90% of key processes, shortening product delivery times to 7-10 days [15][31] - Innovations such as AI fitting and digital live streaming have significantly enhanced consumer experience [15][32] Group 4: Sustainability Initiatives - Bosideng has embedded sustainability into its brand identity, aiming for net-zero emissions by 2038 and achieving the highest MSCI ESG AAA rating in the Asian textile and apparel industry [17][34] - The company has developed a circular economy initiative, ensuring 100% of down used meets responsible sourcing standards [17][34] - Bosideng's leadership in ESG practices has garnered trust from global responsible investors and consumers [17][34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - Recent nationwide temperature drops have boosted sales, particularly for winter apparel, with significant growth in sales of women's down jackets and men's vests during the pre-sale period [8] - The company expects steady growth in performance, maintaining a double-digit growth guidance for the year, with a projected revenue increase of 10% and profit growth exceeding revenue growth [8] - The company has a consistent dividend payout ratio above 80%, with an estimated dividend yield of around 6% for FY26 [8] - The successful debut of the "Master Puff" collection at Paris Fashion Week enhances the company's global brand influence [8] - The appointment of renowned designer Kim Jones is expected to elevate product quality and drive high-end market penetration [8] - The company has established a strong consumer recognition in the down jacket sector and is actively expanding into outdoor and functional apparel markets [8] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for FY2024 to FY2028 are as follows: - FY2024: 23,214 million RMB - FY2025: 25,902 million RMB - FY2026E: 28,465 million RMB - FY2027E: 31,272 million RMB - FY2028E: 34,210 million RMB - The expected growth rates for revenue are 38% for FY2024, 12% for FY2025, and gradually decreasing to 9% by FY2028 [6] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are: - FY2024: 3,074 million RMB - FY2025: 3,514 million RMB - FY2026E: 3,899 million RMB - FY2027E: 4,340 million RMB - FY2028E: 4,754 million RMB - The projected net profit growth rates are 44% for FY2024, 14% for FY2025, and stabilizing around 10% by FY2028 [6][18]

Macro Strategy - The GDP growth rate remains resilient, expected to achieve the annual target of 5% [1][16] - Concerns about liquidity risks in the dollar market due to the near exhaustion of reverse repos and continuous TGA replenishment [1][18] - The core of the US economy is still based on "salary income → consumption expenditure," indicating a potential soft landing as long as core sectors do not face substantial risks [1][21] Fixed Income - The report highlights the potential for arbitrage opportunities in the Sci-Tech bond ETF, focusing on bonds with an implied rating of AA+ or higher, smaller issuance sizes, and specific issuer types [3][5] Industry Analysis - **Pet Food Industry**: The company is a leading player in the domestic pet food market, with significant advantages in brand strength, product quality, and channel capabilities. The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards due to tariff impacts on overseas OEM business, with net profit estimates of 7.0/8.8/10.7 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 12.5%/25.2%/21.8% [6] - **Education Sector**: The company is positioned as a leader in corporate training, with a forecasted net profit of 3.0/3.3/3.6 billion yuan for 2025-2027, maintaining a "hold" rating [9] - **Textile Industry**: The company reported a stable Q3 performance with a revenue increase of 23.2% year-on-year, benefiting from volume growth in key products. The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is maintained at 35.1/43.0/49.8 billion yuan [13] - **Electrical Equipment**: The company expects a 5-10% revenue growth in the high-voltage sector, driven by strong demand and a robust order backlog. The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is set at 12.85/16.09/19.46 billion yuan [14] - **Mining Sector**: The company has adjusted its net profit forecast for 2025-2027 to 504/590/690 billion yuan, reflecting the rising prices of gold and copper [15]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the "Master Puff" series by Bosideng at Paris Fashion Week signifies a successful exploration of the "light warmth" quality of down jackets and represents a meaningful step in the brand's global expansion [1][8]. Group 1: Product Innovation - The "Master Puff" series breaks the traditional heavy and bulky image of down jackets, featuring a structured silhouette with intricate three-dimensional tailoring and layered stitching [7]. - The use of high-loft, high-quality down with fewer impurities, combined with ultra-light and soft babyskin fabric, effectively locks in warmth while reducing weight [7]. - The innovative filling structure allows for precise filling in key areas while leaving non-core areas cleverly "blank," achieving a balance between warmth and lightness [7]. Group 2: Brand Positioning - The choice to unveil the "Master Puff" series during Paris Fashion Week reflects Bosideng's confident stance as a Chinese brand entering the global market, focusing on contemporary consumer attitudes towards a relaxed lifestyle [8]. - The series emphasizes that down jackets are not merely tools for warmth but also fashion statements that express individuality and enjoyment of life [8]. Group 3: Brand Story and Vision - The "Master Puff" series marks a new chapter in Bosideng's brand story, showcasing 49 years of dedication, passion, and relentless innovation in elevating down jackets beyond basic functionality [10]. - The ultimate goal of the company is to transcend physical warmth, aiming for deeper emotional resonance and experience, making each down jacket a source of warmth, confidence, and freedom of expression [10]. - Bosideng's journey, starting in Paris, represents not just a transformation of clothing but a refresh of industry perceptions and the realization of a Chinese brand's global ambitions [12].