【导读】新西兰联储将基准利率下调25个基点至3.00% 中国基金报记者 晨曦 大家好！来一起关注海外市场降息情况。 在7月经济出现停滞迹象后， 新西兰 再度启动宽松周期。 8月20日，新西兰联储将基准利率下调25个基点至3.00%，符合市场预期。 自2024年8月以来，新西兰联储已将利率下调了250个基点，以支撑脆弱的经济复苏，通胀率在1%至3%的目标区间内，为政策制定者提 供了降息的空间。 决议显示，委员会投票决定将利率下调25个基点或50个基点，最终以4票对2票的多数同意将利率降低25个基点至3%。 货币政策声明提到，随着经济中存在闲置产能、国内通胀压力下降，预计到2026年年中，整体通胀将回落至约2%的目标中点。 消息公布后，新西兰 元兑美元短线 跳水，跌幅达1.2%。 新西兰两年期掉期利率跌近3%，为2022年初以来的最低水平。 此前 机构调查的23位经济学家中，有22位 预计 新西兰联储政策委员会将于周三下调官方现金利率25个基点至3%，仅1 位预测利率不会 变化。 此次 降息使 得新西兰 基准利率降至 近 三年来的低点。新西兰联储上月维持利率不变，以评估通胀的上升，政策制定者把注意力转向疲弱 的经 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decided to maintain the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 3.25%, ending a series of six consecutive rate cuts, which diverged from the expectations of most economists who predicted a 25 basis point cut [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy Decision - The RBNZ's decision to pause rate cuts reflects a cautious approach due to the complex economic situation, where domestic demand is weak but inflation has shown signs of recovery [1] - The RBNZ indicated that future rate movements will depend on the pace of economic recovery, the persistence of inflation, and the impact of tariffs [1] - The central bank noted that the cumulative effect of 225 basis points of rate cuts since last August has not fully materialized, and external pressures from U.S. trade policies contribute to its cautious stance on inflation expectations [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - New Zealand's inflation rate accelerated to 2.5% in the first quarter, with expectations that it may reach the upper limit of the 1-3% target range by mid-year, before gradually returning to the 2% target by early 2026 [1] - The first quarter GDP growth of 0.8% exceeded expectations, and there has been some improvement in business confidence, although the real estate and labor markets remain weak [2] - The RBNZ highlighted that rising export prices and lower interest rates support economic growth, but global policy uncertainties may delay recovery and alleviate inflation pressures [2] Group 3: Market Reaction - Following the RBNZ's decision, the New Zealand dollar experienced a slight appreciation, with the USD/NZD exchange rate moving from 0.60 to 0.6008, before retreating to 0.5988 [2] - The decision to maintain rates was reached unanimously, contrasting with the previous meeting where a 5-1 vote favored a rate cut [2] - The RBNZ's pause in rate cuts aligns with a broader trend of diverging global monetary policies, as other central banks have entered easing cycles [3]

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Governor Hawkesby indicated that growth is facing headwinds in the short term [1] - The revision of the Official Cash Rate (OCR) forecast path is described as moderate [1] - This adjustment reflects a weaker inflation outlook compared to the February estimates [1]

Group 1: Currency Market Overview - The Euro has rebounded towards 1.1350 against the USD, while the GBP is challenging the 1.3500 level [1] - The JPY has fallen to its lowest level in over a week against the USD, remaining weak amid a general USD recovery [1] - The AUD has continued its negative trend, testing the 0.6430 area and breaking below the key 200-day moving average due to the strong USD [1] - The NZD, after a drop of over 1% on Tuesday, has reduced some of its losses on Wednesday [1] - The USD/CAD has shown a recovery for the third consecutive day, starting from the 1.3685 area, which is the lowest level since October 2024 [1] Group 2: Central Bank Insights - ECB Governing Council member Holzmann stated that the ECB should at least postpone further rate cuts until September [3] - The Bank of Japan's Governor Ueda mentioned ongoing tariff negotiations, indicating uncertainty in the economic outlook [3] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has lowered its policy rate from 3.50% to 3.25%, marking the sixth consecutive cut, with expectations for at least another 25 basis points reduction [3][4] - The Westpac Bank now anticipates the RBNZ will cut the official cash rate to 3% in August instead of July [4] - Hungary has maintained its benchmark interest rate at 6.5%, aligning with market expectations [5] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The EUR/USD is showing a bullish bias, despite facing strong resistance at 1.1400 [7] - The GBP/USD is in an overbought state with an RSI above 70, facing support at 1.3500 and resistance at 1.3600 [7] - The AUD/USD is attempting to break through an RSI of 60.00, with potential upward targets at 0.6515 and 0.6550 [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the forecast trajectory of the Official Cash Rate (OCR) reflects the decline in global inflation rates [1] Group 2 - The statement indicates that the New Zealand Reserve Bank is adjusting its monetary policy in response to international economic conditions [1] - The commentary suggests that the OCR adjustments are aimed at stabilizing the economy amid changing inflation dynamics [1] - The focus on global inflation trends highlights the interconnectedness of national monetary policies with international economic factors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to announce a rate cut for the sixth consecutive meeting, influenced by the economic outlook affected by U.S. trade barriers [1][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Expectations - A survey of 23 economists indicates that 22 predict the official cash rate (OCR) will be lowered by 25 basis points to 3.25%, with only one expecting a 50 basis point cut [1]. - The central bank may signal further rate cuts, with predictions that the OCR could drop below 3% this year [1]. - Economists forecast the OCR to be adjusted down to approximately 2.9% by the end of 2025 [4]. Group 2: Economic Conditions - The Reserve Bank has noted that U.S. tariff policies pose downward risks to economic activity and inflation, allowing for further rate cuts [4]. - Despite a recent easing of trade tensions, ongoing uncertainty is expected to hinder New Zealand's recovery from last year's recession [4]. - The unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1%, which is better than market expectations, while commodity prices have remained strong and inflation expectations have risen [4]. Group 3: Inflation and Real Estate Market - Inflation is projected to accelerate from the current rate of 2.2% towards the upper end of the central bank's target range of 1-3%, before slowing again next year [5]. - The real estate market continues to be sluggish, and declining business confidence is noted, with the government's recent budget tightening expected to create conditions for further rate cuts [5]. - Some economists predict the OCR could be lowered to 2.5% this year, while the market generally sees a higher likelihood of a drop to 2.75% [5]. Group 4: Strategic Policy Adjustments - The current environment provides ample strategic adjustment space for policymakers [6]. - The expectation is that the Reserve Bank will eventually lower the OCR to 2.5%, but it is not anticipated that a clear signal will be given at this stage [6].

国际货币基金组织（IMF）：新西兰（联储）应当下调（官方）现金利率（OCR）至零。 ...