降息50个基点 新西兰央行货币政策委员会周三在惠灵顿宣布降息50个基点，将官方现金利率（OCR）从3%下调至 2.5%。 周三，新西兰央行宣布降息50个基点至2.5%，而市场普遍预计下调25个基点。新西兰央行表示，不排 除后期进一步降息的可能性。 在上述超预期的降息消息宣布后，新西兰元兑美元汇率直线大跳水，盘中跌幅超过1%，创出4月中旬以 来新低。截至记者发稿时，新西兰元兑美元汇率跌幅收窄至0.54%。 此前，多数经济学家预计新西兰央行将降息25个基点。接受彭博调查的25位经济学家中，10位预计新西 兰央行将降息50个基点，15位经济学家预测新西兰央行将降息25个基点。 在一份声明中，新西兰央行表示，到2025年中期，经济活动疲软。货币政策委员会仍不排除进一步降低 官方现金利率，以确保通胀率持续稳定在2%的目标附近。 降息消息公布后，新西兰元兑美元汇率盘中大幅跳水。在外汇市场上，新西兰元兑美元汇率一度下跌 1.20%至0.5737；而降息声明发布前，新西兰元兑美元汇率为0.5797，跌幅仅为0.15%。新西兰债券收益 率全线下跌，2年期公债收益率下跌7个基点至2.64%。 随着新西兰央行放宽政策的速度超过其他 ...

（原标题：新西兰央行降息50个基点至2.5% 降息幅度超市场预期） 大家好！一起来关注海外央行最新降息消息！ 10月8日，新西兰联储宣布将基准利率下调50个基点，至2.5%。 新西兰联储表示，为确保通胀在中期内稳定维持在2%的目标中点附近，委员会仍愿意在必要时进一步 下调官方现金利率（OCR）。 新西兰联储预计，从2026年中期开始，随着住房需求回升及房价重拾涨势，建筑业活动将逐步复苏。委 员会认为，即便出口价格从高位回落、政府支出占经济比重下降，建筑业复苏仍将减少经济中的闲置产 能，并推动企业投资增长。 新西兰联储委员会认为，截至目前，全球贸易总量与经济活动总体保持韧性。多个贸易伙伴2025年的增 长预期已被上调，其中中国、中国台湾及部分亚洲经济体的上调幅度尤为显著。这一现象源于人工智能 相关产业投资增加、全球贸易流动及供应链适应新关税与贸易限制，以及部分经济体实施宽松财政与货 币政策。然而，2026年的增长预期回升幅度相对较小，贸易伙伴经济增长预计将放缓。 新西兰的通胀前景存在上行和下行风险。家庭和企业的谨慎情绪可能会减缓经济复苏，减轻中期通胀压 力。反之，近期较高的通胀可能会更加持久。 委员会在本次会议 ...

Core Viewpoint - New Zealand's central bank has initiated a monetary easing cycle by lowering the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.00%, responding to signs of economic stagnation and aiming to support fragile economic recovery [3][9]. Group 1: Interest Rate Changes - On August 20, New Zealand's central bank reduced the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.00%, aligning with market expectations [3]. - This reduction marks a total decrease of 250 basis points since August 2024, aimed at bolstering the weak economic recovery [7]. - The decision to lower the rate was made with a majority vote of 4 to 2, considering the economic conditions [8]. Group 2: Economic Conditions - New Zealand's economy showed signs of stagnation in the second quarter, with household and business spending constrained by global economic uncertainties and rising prices of essential goods [9]. - The central bank anticipates that overall inflation will return to around 2% by mid-2026, as domestic inflationary pressures ease [9]. - Economic forecasts suggest a potential GDP decline of 0.3% in Q2 2025, followed by a modest growth of 0.3% in Q3 2025 [10]. Group 3: Future Projections - Analysts predict that the official cash rate (OCR) may remain at supportive levels for an extended period to stimulate the economy, with a possibility of further reductions below 3% by the end of the year [10][11]. - The central bank's monetary policy stance may shift to a more accommodative position if inflation continues to stay within the target range [10]. - New Zealand's ASB Bank forecasts a further reduction of the cash rate to 2.5% in November [11].

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decided to maintain the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 3.25%, ending a series of six consecutive rate cuts, which diverged from the expectations of most economists who predicted a 25 basis point cut [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy Decision - The RBNZ's decision to pause rate cuts reflects a cautious approach due to the complex economic situation, where domestic demand is weak but inflation has shown signs of recovery [1] - The RBNZ indicated that future rate movements will depend on the pace of economic recovery, the persistence of inflation, and the impact of tariffs [1] - The central bank noted that the cumulative effect of 225 basis points of rate cuts since last August has not fully materialized, and external pressures from U.S. trade policies contribute to its cautious stance on inflation expectations [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - New Zealand's inflation rate accelerated to 2.5% in the first quarter, with expectations that it may reach the upper limit of the 1-3% target range by mid-year, before gradually returning to the 2% target by early 2026 [1] - The first quarter GDP growth of 0.8% exceeded expectations, and there has been some improvement in business confidence, although the real estate and labor markets remain weak [2] - The RBNZ highlighted that rising export prices and lower interest rates support economic growth, but global policy uncertainties may delay recovery and alleviate inflation pressures [2] Group 3: Market Reaction - Following the RBNZ's decision, the New Zealand dollar experienced a slight appreciation, with the USD/NZD exchange rate moving from 0.60 to 0.6008, before retreating to 0.5988 [2] - The decision to maintain rates was reached unanimously, contrasting with the previous meeting where a 5-1 vote favored a rate cut [2] - The RBNZ's pause in rate cuts aligns with a broader trend of diverging global monetary policies, as other central banks have entered easing cycles [3]

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Governor Hawkesby indicated that growth is facing headwinds in the short term [1] - The revision of the Official Cash Rate (OCR) forecast path is described as moderate [1] - This adjustment reflects a weaker inflation outlook compared to the February estimates [1]

Group 1: Currency Market Overview - The Euro has rebounded towards 1.1350 against the USD, while the GBP is challenging the 1.3500 level [1] - The JPY has fallen to its lowest level in over a week against the USD, remaining weak amid a general USD recovery [1] - The AUD has continued its negative trend, testing the 0.6430 area and breaking below the key 200-day moving average due to the strong USD [1] - The NZD, after a drop of over 1% on Tuesday, has reduced some of its losses on Wednesday [1] - The USD/CAD has shown a recovery for the third consecutive day, starting from the 1.3685 area, which is the lowest level since October 2024 [1] Group 2: Central Bank Insights - ECB Governing Council member Holzmann stated that the ECB should at least postpone further rate cuts until September [3] - The Bank of Japan's Governor Ueda mentioned ongoing tariff negotiations, indicating uncertainty in the economic outlook [3] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has lowered its policy rate from 3.50% to 3.25%, marking the sixth consecutive cut, with expectations for at least another 25 basis points reduction [3][4] - The Westpac Bank now anticipates the RBNZ will cut the official cash rate to 3% in August instead of July [4] - Hungary has maintained its benchmark interest rate at 6.5%, aligning with market expectations [5] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The EUR/USD is showing a bullish bias, despite facing strong resistance at 1.1400 [7] - The GBP/USD is in an overbought state with an RSI above 70, facing support at 1.3500 and resistance at 1.3600 [7] - The AUD/USD is attempting to break through an RSI of 60.00, with potential upward targets at 0.6515 and 0.6550 [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the forecast trajectory of the Official Cash Rate (OCR) reflects the decline in global inflation rates [1] Group 2 - The statement indicates that the New Zealand Reserve Bank is adjusting its monetary policy in response to international economic conditions [1] - The commentary suggests that the OCR adjustments are aimed at stabilizing the economy amid changing inflation dynamics [1] - The focus on global inflation trends highlights the interconnectedness of national monetary policies with international economic factors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to announce a rate cut for the sixth consecutive meeting, influenced by the economic outlook affected by U.S. trade barriers [1][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Expectations - A survey of 23 economists indicates that 22 predict the official cash rate (OCR) will be lowered by 25 basis points to 3.25%, with only one expecting a 50 basis point cut [1]. - The central bank may signal further rate cuts, with predictions that the OCR could drop below 3% this year [1]. - Economists forecast the OCR to be adjusted down to approximately 2.9% by the end of 2025 [4]. Group 2: Economic Conditions - The Reserve Bank has noted that U.S. tariff policies pose downward risks to economic activity and inflation, allowing for further rate cuts [4]. - Despite a recent easing of trade tensions, ongoing uncertainty is expected to hinder New Zealand's recovery from last year's recession [4]. - The unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1%, which is better than market expectations, while commodity prices have remained strong and inflation expectations have risen [4]. Group 3: Inflation and Real Estate Market - Inflation is projected to accelerate from the current rate of 2.2% towards the upper end of the central bank's target range of 1-3%, before slowing again next year [5]. - The real estate market continues to be sluggish, and declining business confidence is noted, with the government's recent budget tightening expected to create conditions for further rate cuts [5]. - Some economists predict the OCR could be lowered to 2.5% this year, while the market generally sees a higher likelihood of a drop to 2.75% [5]. Group 4: Strategic Policy Adjustments - The current environment provides ample strategic adjustment space for policymakers [6]. - The expectation is that the Reserve Bank will eventually lower the OCR to 2.5%, but it is not anticipated that a clear signal will be given at this stage [6].

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recommends that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand should lower the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to zero [1] Group 1 - The IMF's suggestion is aimed at stimulating economic growth in New Zealand [1] - A reduction in the OCR to zero could potentially enhance liquidity in the financial system [1] - The recommendation reflects concerns about the current economic conditions in New Zealand [1]