上海证券近日发布基础化工行业周报：过去一周（9.20-9.26），基础化工指数涨跌幅 为-0.95%，沪深300指数涨跌幅为1.07%，基础化工板块跑输沪深300指数2.02个百分点，涨 跌幅居于所有板块第17位。基础化工子行业涨跌幅靠前的有：有机硅（15.44%）、橡胶助 剂（7.52%）、合成树脂（2.86%）、粘胶（2.73%）、涂料油墨（1.79%）。 以下为研究报告摘要： 市场行情走势 过去一周（9.20-9.26），基础化工指数涨跌幅为-0.95%，沪深300指数涨跌幅为1.07%， 基础化工板块跑输沪深300指数2.02个百分点，涨跌幅居于所有板块第17位。基础化工子行 业涨跌幅靠前的有：有机硅（15.44%）、橡胶助剂（7.52%）、合成树脂（2.86%）、粘胶 （2.73%）、涂料油墨（1.79%）。 当前时点建议关注如下主线：1、制冷剂板块。随着三年基数期结束，三代制冷剂行业 供需格局将迎来再平衡，价格中枢有望持续上行，建议关注金石资源、巨化股份、三美股 份、永和股份。2、化纤板块。建议关注华峰化学、新凤鸣、泰和新材。3、建议关注万华化 学、华鲁恒升、鲁西化工、宝丰能源等优质标的。4、轮胎 ...

Group 1 - The US tariff policy and other adverse factors pose significant challenges to chemical exporters in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region, which consists of six Middle Eastern countries: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE [1] - The Gulf Petrochemicals and Chemicals Association (GPCA) emphasizes the importance of enhancing cooperation with Asian markets, particularly China, as GCC chemical producers have joint ventures in China, South Korea, Malaysia, and Singapore, processing approximately 2.7 million barrels of crude oil daily and operating over 23 million tons of downstream petrochemical capacity annually [1] - Despite the challenges posed by US tariffs, there are opportunities for GCC chemical exporters, as a 10% baseline tariff could increase the prices of GCC chemical products in the US market, particularly affecting high-volume, price-sensitive products like urea, paraxylene (PX), and polyethylene terephthalate (PET) [1] Group 2 - In 2023, Asia accounted for over half of the total exports from the GCC region, with China, India, and Turkey being the primary markets. If China reduces imports from the US, GCC can fill this gap, provided they act quickly to capture market share and diversify trade partners [1] - The GCC region's chemical producers have a competitive advantage over those relying on naphtha due to fluctuating oil prices, and there is a strong emphasis on optimizing energy usage and focusing on high-value projects [1][2] - GCC chemical companies are shifting investments towards specialty elastomers, crude oil-derived chemicals, and downstream sectors such as packaging and electric vehicle materials, with a utilization rate of approximately 90%, significantly higher than most global peers [2] Group 3 - Supply chain resilience has become a key advantage for GCC chemical producers, who must predict, adapt, and seize opportunities arising from geopolitical conflicts and disruptions [2] - Four strategies have been proposed to address supply chain challenges: flexibility in export routes, transparency from production to end-user, establishing regional buffer stocks in key import markets, and utilizing digital risk forecasting [2] - The use of AI, blockchain, and IoT tools is transforming supply chain management from reactive to predictive, while diversified sourcing and strategic inventory reduce reliance on a single region [2] Group 4 - GCC countries will continue to leverage their cost advantage in natural gas while also committing to energy transition, aiming to adjust 25% to 50% of their energy structure to renewable sources by 2030 [3] - Significant investments are being made in carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS), with the region capturing 4.4 million tons of CO2 annually, accounting for 10% of global CCUS capacity [3] - Hydrogen production is another focus of the GCC's energy transition, with ambitious targets set by Oman, UAE, and Saudi Arabia for annual hydrogen production by 2030 and 2031 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The PTA industry is facing significant challenges due to ongoing trade wars and policy uncertainties, leading to a drop in prices to near four-year lows. The high cost of raw material PX is expected to erode profits, and the overcapacity in the industry, combined with weak downstream demand, suggests that PTA prices may remain low for the foreseeable future [1]. Group 1: Market Supply and Capacity - China's PTA industry has seen significant capacity expansion, becoming the world's largest PTA producer with a total capacity of 86.2 million tons as of March [2]. - The rapid rise of private enterprises in the PTA sector has intensified industry transformation, leading to a more integrated competitive landscape where major suppliers have established a "PX-PTA-Polyester" supply chain [2]. - Despite the gradual increase in domestic PTA demand due to downstream polyester projects, the growth rate of PTA capacity is outpacing that of polyester, resulting in a buyer-dominated market [2]. Group 2: Raw Material Prices - The PX market has experienced a slowdown in capacity expansion after a rapid release phase, with domestic PX capacity expected to remain at 43.48 million tons in 2024, with no new projects planned for that year [3]. - The supply of PX is expected to remain tight, making it difficult for prices to decrease, which will further squeeze the profit margins of downstream products like PTA [4]. Group 3: Demand Challenges - The polyester industry, a key downstream consumer of PTA, holds 70% of the global market share, but the growth rate of new polyester capacity is slowing, leading to an oversupply crisis [5]. - The uncertainty in the international trade environment has negatively impacted overseas orders, particularly affecting exports to the U.S. and Europe, which is significant for the home textile industry [5]. - Many weaving enterprises are currently facing a dilemma of "high costs and low demand," leading some small and medium-sized companies to implement production cuts to maintain prices [5][6].