Core Viewpoint - European Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) prices are experiencing a significant increase, rising from $1780/ton at the beginning of the year to $2860/ton, marking a historical high, which has led to a surge in biomass energy concept stocks [2] Investment Logic - Dual support from policies and strategies: Biomass energy is the only renewable energy that can contribute in solid, liquid, and gas forms, achieving multiple goals of "energy substitution, agricultural efficiency, and environmental governance." Its strategic importance has been incorporated into national "dual carbon" goals and core agendas such as rural revitalization and energy transition [2] - Market scale and growth potential: The biomass energy industry is in a rapid growth phase, with market size and penetration continuously increasing. The global biomass energy market is expected to reach 1.1 trillion yuan by 2025 and exceed 1.6 trillion yuan by 2032, with a CAGR of approximately 5.4%. In China, the biomass energy market is projected to reach 257.8 billion yuan by 2025 and exceed 800 billion yuan by 2032, with a CAGR of about 16%, significantly higher than the global average [2] - Technological iteration, cost reduction, and efficiency improvement: Technological advancements are the core driving force for the biomass energy industry to shift from "policy dependence" to "market-oriented operation," with several breakthroughs since 2025 significantly enhancing industry efficiency and economic viability [2] Biomass Energy Concept Core Leading Stocks - In the A-share market, leading companies in the biomass energy concept are primarily concentrated in the fields of biodiesel, biomass power generation, and biomass energy heating [3] - Biodiesel / Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF): This sector is currently the most focused area in the market, especially with the continuous rise in European SAF prices, leading to active performance from related companies [3] Biomass Energy Heating - Potential risks are acknowledged but not detailed in this summary [4] Biomass Power Generation - Changqing Group (002616) is recognized as one of the leading enterprises in the biomass power generation concept [6]

Core Insights - The global aviation industry is entering the "SAF era," driven by policy changes and increasing demand for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) [1][2][5] - The SAF market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected supply-demand gap exceeding 26 million tons from 2030 to 2035, leading to a market size in the thousands of billions of yuan [1][2] - SAF can reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 69% to 90% compared to traditional fuels, making it a viable path for the aviation industry's decarbonization efforts [2][5] Industry Developments - The European Union has mandated that by 2030, 6% of fuel used in flights from its airports must be SAF, with a target of 70% by 2050 [2][3] - China's SAF consumption is projected to exceed 20,000 tons this year, with various initiatives and policies being implemented to support the industry [3][6] - Major Chinese airlines are beginning to incorporate SAF into their operations, with commitments to increase SAF usage significantly by 2030 [3][6] Market Dynamics - The price of SAF has surged, with recent figures exceeding $2,700 per ton, driven by regulatory requirements and rising raw material costs [4][10] - The competition for SAF production capacity is intensifying, with numerous companies launching projects to meet the growing demand [6][7] - The current collection of waste cooking oil in China is limited to about 5 million tons annually, which is insufficient to meet future SAF demand [8][9] Challenges and Opportunities - The high cost of SAF production remains a significant barrier to widespread adoption, with estimates suggesting that SAF could be 4.2 times more expensive than conventional jet fuel [9][10] - Companies are exploring diverse raw materials for SAF production to enhance supply and reduce costs, including non-food biomass and green hydrogen [8][9] - The industry is witnessing a shift in production locations, with potential growth in regions rich in agricultural waste and renewable resources [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][5][19]. Core Views - The company has significantly turned around its performance, achieving a net profit of 40.57 million yuan in H1 2025, compared to a loss in the previous period. This improvement is attributed to cost reduction efforts, increased production, and favorable market conditions for industrial-grade mixed oil [1][7]. - The company's operating cash flow has improved significantly, reaching 60.66 million yuan in H1 2025, an increase of 72.46 million yuan year-on-year [1][7]. - The gross margin has increased to 24.04% in H1 2025, up by 5.04 percentage points year-on-year, driven by higher margins in the industrial-grade mixed oil business [2][7]. - The company has submitted a private placement application to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, aiming to raise up to 717.63 million yuan [3][19]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported revenues of 717 million yuan, a decrease of 9.3% year-on-year, primarily due to changes in the sales structure of oils. The net profit for the same period was 40.57 million yuan, marking a significant turnaround [1][7]. - The operating cash flow for H1 2025 was 60.66 million yuan, reflecting a substantial improvement compared to the previous year [1][7]. Margin and Cost Analysis - The overall gross margin for H1 2025 was 24.04%, an increase of 5.04 percentage points from the previous year. The gross margin for the industrial-grade mixed oil business rose to 25.41%, up by 6.15 percentage points [2][7]. - The company maintained stable expense ratios, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios recorded at 0.05%, 8.12%, 0.12%, and 8.80%, respectively [2][7]. Market Conditions - The price of industrial-grade mixed oil (UCO) has been on the rise, reaching an average export price of 1,054.22 USD/ton in July 2025, a 16.75% increase year-on-year [2][13]. - The domestic demand for UCO is expected to grow as the country progresses with SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) pilot programs, which may further enhance the scarcity of industrial-grade mixed oil [13][15]. Future Outlook - The company has maintained its profit forecast for 2025 while adjusting upward the profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027, expecting net profits of 88 million yuan, 154 million yuan, and 200 million yuan for the respective years [3][19]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 37, 21, and 17 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3][19].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][14]. Core Views - The company has released a strong mid-year performance forecast for 2025, expecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 40-45 million yuan, a significant increase from a loss of 35.0024 million yuan in the same period last year, representing a year-on-year growth of 214.28% to 228.56% [3][4]. - The company plans to raise no more than 718 million yuan through a private placement to a major shareholder, which will be used to replenish working capital and repay bank loans [3][12]. - The increase in performance is attributed to cost reduction efforts, increased waste disposal volumes, and rising market prices for industrial-grade mixed oil due to EU policy impacts [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit of 40-45 million yuan for mid-2025, compared to a loss of 35.0024 million yuan in the previous year, indicating a year-on-year growth of 214.28% to 228.56% [3][4]. - The expected net profit excluding non-recurring items is projected to be 36-41 million yuan, up from 162.43 thousand yuan last year, reflecting a growth of 2116.34% to 2424.16% [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The price of industrial-grade mixed oil (UCO) has reached a two-year high, driven by increased domestic demand and the upcoming shipping season, with prices touching 7600 yuan/ton in July 2025 [5][6]. - The domestic SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) trial has begun, indicating a potential increase in demand for UCO, which may enhance its scarcity in the market [6]. Capital Raising and Shareholder Confidence - The company plans to issue shares to Shandong High-speed Industrial Investment Co., Ltd., with a subscription price of 5.13 yuan per share, raising up to 718 million yuan [12][13]. - The full cash subscription by the major shareholder reflects confidence in the company's future prospects and is expected to optimize the company's financial structure and reduce financial costs [13]. Future Earnings Forecast - The company maintains its earnings forecast, projecting net profits of 88 million yuan, 125 million yuan, and 145 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with growth rates of 576.3%, 41.3%, and 16.1% [14].

Summary of Conference Call on UCO Industry and Company Insights Industry Overview - The UCO (Used Cooking Oil) market is driven by carbon attributes and green premiums, with prices currently around 7,700-7,800 RMB/ton, reflecting a 500-600 RMB increase since early June [2][5][25] - The market dynamics have shifted due to mandatory bio-jet fuel (SAF) blending policies in Europe and the commissioning of large domestic plants, enhancing the bargaining power of domestic producers [2][5] - The annual production of UCO from regulated kitchen waste treatment plants in China is approximately 800,000 to 900,000 tons, with slow capacity expansion due to strict project approvals [2][3][8] Company Positioning - The company specializes in kitchen organic waste treatment and UCO resource utilization, processing about 4,700-4,800 tons of waste daily with a design capacity of 5,400 tons, achieving an 88% utilization rate [3] - The company’s UCO production is around 90,000 tons annually, positioning it as a leader in the domestic UCO sector [3] Market Dynamics - UCO pricing has been influenced by the European SAF blending mandate, which requires a 2% addition by 2025, leading to increased domestic demand [5][17] - The company’s UCO sales have transitioned from international clients to domestic SAF producers, with major clients including Hai Xin Neng Ke and He Nan Jun Heng [11][12] Production and Supply Chain - UCO is categorized into several types based on quality, with the highest quality sourced from kitchen waste treatment plants, followed by mixed oils and lower-quality oils like gutter oil [9][10] - The company plans to expand its UCO production capacity to 200,000 tons annually through acquisitions and projects like "urban oil fields," targeting a daily processing capacity of 8,000 to 10,000 tons [4][15][16] Regulatory Environment - The UCO industry faces significant regulatory hurdles, with project approvals requiring local government consent and operational experience, limiting the emergence of new large-scale producers [8][9] Future Outlook - The demand for UCO is expected to grow, particularly with European policies mandating higher SAF blending ratios, which could lead to a supply shortage if domestic production does not keep pace [21][22] - The company anticipates a substantial improvement in performance in 2025, driven by cost reductions and increased oil extraction rates, with a focus on monitoring oil price fluctuations [25] Key Risks and Considerations - Oil price fluctuations significantly impact profitability, with a 1,000 RMB increase in oil prices affecting profits by approximately 90 million RMB [25] - The company is advised to keep an eye on UCO price trends and the prices of palm oil and rapeseed oil, as they are closely linked to UCO pricing [25]

Macro and Strategy - The core CPI in China is expected to turn positive in June, driven by service prices in May, while the PPI continues to show a significant decline [9][10] - China's exports showed resilience with a 4.8% year-on-year increase in May, while imports fell by 3.4%, resulting in a trade surplus of $103.22 billion [10] Transportation Industry - The logistics sector is seeing a reduction in costs and increased efficiency through the adoption of unmanned logistics vehicles, particularly in the last mile of delivery [10][12] - The shipping industry is experiencing a rebound in freight rates due to increased demand from U.S. companies resuming supply chains, leading to a significant supply-demand gap [10][12] - The aviation sector is entering a low season, with domestic passenger flights seeing a decrease, but there is potential for price stabilization in 2025 due to ongoing demand optimization policies [11][12] Public Utilities and Environmental Protection - The National Energy Administration is initiating pilot projects for new power systems, focusing on innovative technologies and models [15][16] - In April 2025, China exported 228,148 tons of industrial-grade mixed oil (UCO), a 7.46% increase year-on-year, with an average export price of $1,069.34 per ton, up 21.01% year-on-year [15][16] Mechanical Industry - The humanoid robot sector is gaining traction, with strong orders from TSMC and the official launch of the Tian Gong Robot 2.0 [10][18] - The AI infrastructure is expected to drive continued growth in capital expenditure for data centers, benefiting companies involved in gas turbines and chillers [19] Home Appliances - The demand for kitchen small appliances is accelerating, with significant growth observed during the 618 shopping festival [21][22] - The domestic sales of major home appliance categories showed positive growth in April, with air conditioners and washing machines leading the way [22][23] Food and Beverage - The white liquor sector is facing continued pressure during the off-season, while beer and beverage categories are entering a peak demand period [33][34] - High-end liquor prices have slightly decreased, with companies like Kweichow Moutai and Luzhou Laojiao adjusting strategies to maintain market presence [34] Media and Internet - The media sector is experiencing growth, with companies like Keling AI collaborating with NetEase Games, indicating a positive trend in AI applications and IP development [33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utility sector [1][5][7] Core Views - The report highlights the ongoing pilot projects for the new power system initiated by the National Energy Administration, focusing on innovative technologies and models [2][14] - It emphasizes the growth in exports of industrial-grade mixed oil (UCO) in April 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 7.46% in volume and a 21.01% increase in average price [3][15] - The report suggests that coal and electricity prices are declining simultaneously, which may help maintain reasonable profitability for thermal power [3][18] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.88%, while the public utility index fell by 0.13% and the environmental index increased by 0.46% [1][19] - Within the electricity sector, thermal power decreased by 0.97%, hydropower by 1.47%, and new energy generation by 0.45% [1][19] Important Events - The National Energy Administration is conducting pilot projects for a new power system, focusing on advanced technologies and models [2][14] Special Research - In April 2025, China exported 228,148 tons of industrial-grade mixed oil (UCO), with an average export price of $1,069.34 per ton [3][15] Investment Strategy - Recommendations include major thermal power companies like Huadian International and Shanghai Electric, as well as leading new energy firms such as Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy [3][18] - The report also suggests focusing on water and waste incineration sectors, which are entering a mature phase with improved cash flow [3][18] Key Company Earnings Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Several companies are rated "Outperform," including Huadian International, Shanghai Electric, Longyuan Power, and China Nuclear Power [7][18] Industry Dynamics - The report notes that the overall electricity generation in April 2025 was 711.1 billion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 0.9% [45] - The total installed power generation capacity reached 3.49 billion kW, a year-on-year increase of 15.9% [76]