行 业 及 产 业 石油石化 2025 年 10 月 08 日 自然递减率呈现一定分化，油气供 应未来或将更加集中 看好 ——石油化工行业周报(2025/9/29—2025/10/5) 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 刘子栋 A0230523110002 liuzd@swsresearch.com 邵靖宇 A0230524080001 shaojy@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 丁莹 A0230125070005 dingying@swsresearch.com 联系人 丁莹 (8621)23297818× dingying@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 - 1． 本周观点及推荐 1.1 本周思考：自然递减率呈现一定分化，油气供应未来 或将更加集中 国际能源署（IEA）分析显示，全球常规油气田产量正以显著的速度自然递减。IEA 对全球约 15000 个油气田 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current price of spot gold is around $3657.90 per ounce, experiencing narrow fluctuations [2] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points was initially seen as a positive for gold, but the ambiguous statements from Chairman Powell cooled expectations for aggressive future cuts [2] - The rise in U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar have put additional pressure on gold prices, with the dollar index increasing by 0.4% to 97.347 [2] - Gold's recent trading range has been between $3633 and $3672, with a notable two consecutive daily declines for the first time since the rise from $3311 [3] - Key support and resistance levels for gold are identified at $3615 and $3672, respectively, with a bullish trend expected to continue after a mid-term adjustment [5] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Brent crude oil futures have slightly decreased to $67.43, while WTI futures are at $63.53, with both benchmarks expected to record a second consecutive week of increases [6] - The unexpected increase of 4 million barrels in U.S. distillate inventories has raised concerns about demand, countering the positive impact of the Fed's rate cut [6] - The oil market is currently facing a "dual game," balancing the Fed's easing policies against rising inventory data and weak macroeconomic indicators [6] - Short-term oil price trends are characterized by a weak and volatile consolidation pattern, with key support at $62.30 and resistance between $64.0 and $65.0 [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the potential for long-term growth in Xinjiang, supported by continuous policy empowerment and significant economic achievements in the region [5][22] - Xinjiang is positioned as a core area for national energy security, with rapid development in coal chemical industries and substantial investments planned [23] - The chemical industry is expected to enter a new long-term prosperity cycle, driven by supply-side reforms and improved demand from policy initiatives [8] Market Performance - The basic chemical industry index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.2 percentage points this week, with a weekly increase of 2.3% [11] - Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry index has risen by 16.3%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 7.8 percentage points [11] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in Xinjiang, particularly in sectors such as civil explosives, chemical engineering, and resource-based enterprises [5][23] - Key companies to watch include: - Civil Explosives: Yipuli, Jiangnan Chemical, Guangdong Hongda, Xuefeng Technology, Kailong Co [5] - Chemical Engineering: Sanwei Chemical, China Chemical, Donghua Technology, Sinopec Refining Engineering [5] - Resource-based Enterprises: Guanghui Energy, Baofeng Energy, Hubei Yihua, Tianfu Energy, Xinjiang Tianye [5] Product Price Movements - The report notes significant price increases in various chemical products, with hydrochloric acid rising by 900% and ammonium chloride by 13.3% [30][32] - Conversely, prices for some products like trichlorosucrose have decreased by 28% [30][32] Company Announcements - Companies such as Qixiang Tengda and Jiahuan Energy have reported significant operational updates and financial results, indicating a positive trend in revenue and profit growth [24][25][27]

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. military action against Iran's nuclear facilities has heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, potentially impacting global economic stability and inflation dynamics, particularly through the risk of oil price surges if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked [1][8]. Geopolitical Impact - The Strait of Hormuz is a critical passage for global oil trade, with approximately 20% of the world's oil passing through it, equating to an average of 20 million barrels per day in 2024 [3][4]. - Historical context shows that while Iran has threatened to block the Strait, it has never followed through, but the current situation raises concerns about potential disruptions that could significantly affect oil prices [3][4]. Energy Price Dynamics - Analysts predict that if the Strait were to be blocked, Brent crude oil prices could soar to between $100 and $120 per barrel, exacerbating inflationary pressures globally [2][3]. - The rise in oil prices has already led to increased transportation costs, with insurance rates for Middle East to Asia routes surging by 300% and VLCC tanker rates exceeding $53,000 per day [5]. Economic Consequences - The escalation in energy prices is expected to strain household budgets and increase operational costs for businesses, potentially dampening consumer spending and investment [9][10]. - Global central banks face a dilemma between supporting economic growth and controlling inflation, particularly as energy prices rise amid already slowing economic growth [9][10]. China's Energy Market - China's oil imports are projected to be 553 million tons in 2024, accounting for 75% of its apparent consumption, with current domestic inventories at a historical high of 1.13 billion barrels [14]. - Despite the geopolitical tensions, the short-term impact on China's oil imports is expected to be limited due to sufficient domestic inventory levels and alternative supply sources [14]. Trade and Export Implications - The ongoing conflict has led to disruptions in trade, particularly affecting exports to Israel and Iran, with reports of significant delays and cancellations in shipments [15]. - China's trade with Iran represents a small fraction of its overall trade, with total trade value in the first five months of 2025 amounting to approximately $4.678 billion, a decline of 20.8% year-on-year [15].

Group 1 - Spot gold has turned to a decline of nearly 0.1%, falling below $3430 per ounce [1] - WTI and Brent crude oil futures have seen their gains narrow to less than 1% [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, suggesting investment opportunities in high-quality refining companies and upstream service providers [2][4]. Core Insights - The European refining sector is undergoing significant restructuring due to declining demand, aging facilities, and reduced profitability, with refining capacity decreasing by 4.2 million barrels per day since 2005, a drop of over 23% [4][5]. - The average age of European refineries is 66 years, significantly higher than the global average of 51 years, leading to increased maintenance costs and declining competitiveness [7][10]. - High natural gas prices continue to exert pressure on refinery profitability, with expectations that European gas prices will remain elevated, negatively impacting operational costs [10][12]. - Several refineries are expected to shut down in 2025, including Shell's Rheinland refinery and BP's Gelsenkirchen refinery, collectively removing 390,000 barrels per day of capacity [12][13]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - As of May 9, 2025, Brent crude futures closed at $63.91 per barrel, a week-on-week increase of 4.27%, while WTI futures rose by 4.68% to $41.02 per barrel [19]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2.032 million barrels to 438 million barrels, which is 7% lower than the five-year average for this time of year [21][22]. - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. decreased by 6 to 578, a year-on-year decline of 25 rigs [19][30]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products was $10.90 per barrel as of May 9, 2025, down by $6.31 from the previous week [53]. - The price spread for ethylene was $245.67 per ton, up by $30.80 from the previous week, while propylene saw a decrease in its price spread [4][50]. Polyester Sector - PTA prices increased to an average of 4551.67 RMB per ton, reflecting a week-on-week rise of 0.75% [4][50]. - The overall performance of the polyester industry remains average, with a need to monitor demand changes closely [4][50]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong due to expected improvements in cost structures and competitive positioning [4][14]. - It also highlights the potential for recovery in the valuation of companies like Satellite Chemical and Tongkun Co., given the anticipated easing of tariffs affecting polyester demand [4][14].