Tabl e_Title 2025 年 12 月 29 日 大类资产运行周报（20251222-20251226） 市场偏好有所回升 风险资产价格上涨 风险提示：美国通胀数据改善不及预期 大类资产运行报告 全球主要资产表现 | | 近一周变动 | | --- | --- | | 新兴市场股市指数 | 2.11% | | Table_Fi rstSto ck 发达市场股市指数 主要资产涨跌幅表现 | 1.35% | | 全球债券指数 | 0.55% | | 全球国债指数 | 0.60% | | 全球信用债指数 姓名 | 0.48% | | 美元指数 | 分析师 -0.69% | | SAC 执业证书编号：S1111111111111 | | | RJ/CRB 商品价格指数 | Xxxxxx @essence.com.cn 1.81% | | | 021-68767839 | | 标普高盛商品全收益指数 | 1.58% | 丁沛舟 高级分析师 期货从业资格号：F3002969 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012005 dingpz@essence.com.cn 010-58747724 相关报告 大类资产运行周报（2 ...

转自：新华财经 新华财经北京12月9日电（吴郑思、张瑶） 国内商品期货市场周二（12月9日）普遍走弱，多数活跃品种收盘不同程度下跌。截至收盘时，综合衡量市场价 格表现的中证商品期货价格指数收报1492.50点，较前一交易日下跌18.41点，跌幅1.22%。中证商品期货指数收报2063.54点，较前一交易日下跌25.45点，跌 幅1.22%。 分品种来看，金属板块几乎全线走弱，其中工业硅弱势领跌，氧化铝盘中刷新上市以来新低，即使贵金属也双双减仓收跌近1%。但受消息面利多提振，多 晶硅逆势走强，主力合约终盘以超3%的涨幅领涨商品市场。此外，国际油价隔夜大跌超2%也拖累能化板块9日几乎全线下挫。相比之下，生猪延续反弹， 终盘再涨超1%，盘中触及逾三周高点。 图为中证商品期货价格指数日内走势图（来源：新华财经专业终端） 多晶硅领涨商品市场 生猪延续反弹行情 受利多消息提振，多晶硅9日逆势上涨，主力合约终盘以3.45%的涨幅领涨商品市场。日内市场有关多晶硅收储平台的消息再起。多家媒体报道，北京光和 谦成科技有限责任公司已于12月9日成立，该公司被市场猜测为"多晶硅产能整合收购平台"。虽然业内人士并未直接对这一猜测做出回 ...

Industry Overview Upstream - Prices of aluminum and copper in the non - ferrous metals sector have rebounded; international oil prices and liquefied natural gas prices are fluctuating [2] Midstream - In the chemical industry, PX prices are rising, while the operating rates of PTA and polyester are low; power plant coal consumption has decreased [3] Downstream - In the real estate sector, the sales of commercial housing in second - and third - tier cities have seasonally increased slightly; in the service industry, the film box office is in the off - season, and the number of domestic flights has seasonally increased slightly [3] Macroeconomic Events Production Industry - China is designing a new rare - earth export licensing system, and the Ministry of Commerce will carry out export control work on rare - earth related items in accordance with laws and regulations [1] Service Industry - In the first ten months of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 30.9 trillion yuan, 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year; RMB loans increased by 14.97 trillion yuan. At the end of October, M2 balance was 335.13 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%; M1 balance was 112 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%; M0 balance was 13.55 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 10.6%. The narrowing gap between M1 and M2 indicates positive signals such as increased business activity and improved consumer demand [1] Key Industry Price Indicators | Industry | Indicator | Price | YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of corn | 2161.4 yuan/ton | 0.40% | | | Spot price of eggs | 6.5 yuan/kg | 1.25% | | | Spot price of palm oil | 8710.0 yuan/ton | 0.11% | | | Spot price of cotton | 14819.5 yuan/ton | - 0.29% | | | Average wholesale price of pork | 18.1 yuan/kg | - 0.60% | | Non - ferrous metals | Spot price of copper | 87301.7 yuan/ton | 1.59% | | | Spot price of zinc | 22618.0 yuan/ton | 0.63% | | | Spot price of aluminum | 21933.3 yuan/ton | 2.60% | | | Spot price of nickel | 121150.0 yuan/ton | - 0.03% | | | Spot price of aluminum | 17606.3 yuan/ton | 1.51% | | Ferrous metals | Spot price of rebar | 3133.0 yuan/ton | 0.00% | | | Spot price of iron ore | 794.7 yuan/ton | - 0.08% | | | Spot price of wire rod | 3302.5 yuan/ton | - 0.08% | | | Spot price of glass | 14.0 yuan/square meter | - 1.06% | | Non - metals | Spot price of natural rubber | 14883.3 yuan/ton | 1.82% | | | China Plastics City Price Index | 772.0 | - 0.58% | | Energy | Spot price of WTI crude oil | 58.5 dollars/barrel | - 1.86% | | | Spot price of Brent crude oil | 62.7 dollars/barrel | - 1.28% | | | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | 4206.0 yuan/ton | - 1.91% | | | Coal price | 834.0 yuan/ton | 1.21% | | Chemical | Spot price of PTA | 4591.6 yuan/ton | 0.67% | | | Spot price of polyethylene | 6988.3 yuan/ton | 0.02% | | | Spot price of urea | 1630.0 yuan/ton | 2.03% | | | Spot price of soda ash | 1214.3 yuan/ton | 0.89% | | Real estate | Cement price index | 136.4 | - 0.16% | | | Building materials composite index | 112.3 points | 0.42% | | | Concrete price index | 90.8 points | - 0.14% | [38]

Industry Overview Upstream - Black: Iron ore and rebar prices declined [2] - Agriculture: Egg prices rebounded [2] - Energy: International oil prices declined and fluctuated recently [2] Midstream - Chemical: PTA operating rate decreased, urea operating rate increased slightly, and PX operating rate remained stable at a high level [2] - Energy: Coal consumption of power plants was at a low level [2] - Infrastructure: Asphalt operating rate was at a low level [2] Downstream - Real estate: Seasonal rebound in commercial housing sales in second - and third - tier cities [3] - Services: Domestic flight frequencies increased slightly [3] Key Events Production Industry - From November 10, 2025, to November 9, 2026, the US will suspend the implementation of the export control penetration rule [1] Service Industry - The People's Bank of China requires the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy to maintain a relatively loose social financing environment [1] Key Price Indicators | Industry | Indicator | Price | YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of eggs | - | +5.69% | | | Spot price of palm oil | 8714.0 yuan/ton | +0.32% | | | Average wholesale price of pork | 18.1 yuan/kg | +0.61% | | | Spot price of zinc | 22558.0 yuan/ton | +1.03% | | Non - ferrous metals | Spot price of aluminum | 21503.3 yuan/ton | +0.25% | | | Spot price of nickel | 122233.3 yuan/ton | +0.01% | | Black metals | Spot price of rebar | 3133.0 yuan/ton | -1.42% | | | Spot price of iron ore | 789.4 yuan/ton | -3.25% | | Non - metals | Spot price of natural rubber | 14675.0 yuan/ton | +0.69% | | Energy | Spot price of WTI crude oil | 59.8 dollars/barrel | -2.02% | | | Spot price of Brent crude oil | 63.6 dollars/barrel | -2.21% | | | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | 4242.0 yuan/ton | -1.81% | | | Coal price | 826.0 yuan/ton | +1.10% | | Chemical | Spot price of PTA | 4645.7 yuan/ton | +1.91% | | | Spot price of urea | 1627.5 yuan/ton | +2.36% | | | Spot price of soda ash | 1207.9 yuan/ton | +0.30% | | Real estate | Building materials composite index | 112.0 points | -0.88% | | | Concrete price index | 90.9 points | -0.10% | [37]

Group 1: Oil Market - International oil prices experienced the largest weekly decline since late June, with U.S. oil dropping by 5.12% and Brent oil by 4.42% last week [3] - The decline in oil prices is attributed to geopolitical factors, including the anticipation of a potential meeting between U.S. and Russian leaders, which raised hopes for a peace agreement in Ukraine, leading to a reduction in geopolitical risk premium [3] - Additionally, the "OPEC+" group is expected to increase production in September, further contributing to the downward pressure on oil prices [3] Group 2: Gold Market - International gold prices rose by 2.69% last week, driven by multiple factors including the U.S. government's nomination for a vacant Federal Reserve board position, which has increased market optimism regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Fed [6] - Tariff policies have also impacted the gold market, with two Swiss gold refining companies reducing or halting gold exports to the U.S., contributing to the upward movement in gold prices [6]

Group 1: U.S. Stock Market Performance - The U.S. stock market experienced fluctuations due to the controversial tax and spending bill signed by President Trump, which passed through Congress amid market concerns [1] - The three major U.S. stock indices saw cumulative gains over the week, with the Dow Jones increasing by 2.30%, the S&P 500 rising by 1.72%, and the Nasdaq up by 1.62% [1] Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices rose last week, driven by expectations that the U.S.-Vietnam trade agreement would boost oil demand and geopolitical risks from Iran's suspension of cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency [2] - U.S. oil futures increased by 2.26%, while Brent crude futures rose by 0.78% [2] Group 3: OPEC+ Production Increase - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations of 411,000 barrels per day, which may lead to downward pressure on oil prices due to potential oversupply [3] Group 4: Gold Market Trends - International gold prices rose by 1.68% last week, influenced by heightened market uncertainty regarding global trade and increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [4] Group 5: U.S. Tariff Negotiations - Investors are closely monitoring the end of the 90-day suspension period for U.S. "reciprocal tariffs," with no agreements reached with major trading partners like the EU and Japan [5] - President Trump indicated he might send multiple letters regarding tariffs, raising concerns about unilateral trade strategies and their potential impact on the global economy [5] Group 6: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is set to release the minutes from its June monetary policy meeting, where it maintained interest rates, with market expectations leaning towards a high probability of a rate cut in September [6] - Economic data from major Eurozone economies, including Germany and France, will also be released, with predictions of potential rate cuts from the European Central Bank [6]

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices have slightly declined in the short term, with Trump stating he does not believe the ceasefire agreement has been violated when questioned about it [1] Group 1 - International oil prices are experiencing a minor decrease [1] - Trump's comments suggest a stable outlook regarding the ceasefire agreement [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From June 9th to June 13th, globally, stocks fluctuated and diverged, while bonds and commodities rose. In China, stocks and bonds fluctuated, and commodities rose. Overall, commodities > bonds > stocks in terms of performance [3][6][19]. - The market is currently focused on the Middle - East situation, which may lead to increased volatility in related asset prices. Attention should be paid to the Fed's June interest - rate meeting for clues on the US dollar's monetary policy [3][26]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Global Major Asset Performance 3.1.1 Global Stock Market - The performance of major global stock markets diverged. Emerging markets outperformed developed markets, and the VIX index rose. US stocks performed poorly [8]. - In the Asia - Pacific market, the MSCI Asia - Pacific region rose 0.49% in the past week, and the South Korea Composite Index had a significant weekly increase of 2.94%. In the European market, the MSCI Europe fell 0.27%. In the American market, the MSCI US fell 0.47% [11][12][13]. 3.1.2 Global Bond Market - The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond dropped by 10BP to 4.41% this week. Globally, credit bonds > government bonds > high - yield bonds [15]. - The global bond index rose 0.81%, the global government bond index rose 0.78%, and the global credit bond index rose 0.90% [16]. 3.1.3 Global Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index dropped 1.07% this week due to higher - than - expected growth in US jobless claims and increased expectations of interest - rate cuts. Most major non - US currencies appreciated against the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate fluctuated within a narrow range [16]. 3.1.4 Global Commodity Market - Geopolitical risks drove up international oil prices, and gold prices rose due to risk - aversion. The prices of major agricultural products and non - ferrous metals showed mixed trends [18]. 3.2 Domestic Major Asset Performance 3.2.1 Domestic Stock Market - A - share broad - based indices generally declined. The average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased compared to the previous week. Blue - chip stocks were relatively resilient. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.25% [20]. 3.2.2 Domestic Bond Market - The central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 72.7 billion yuan. The bond market fluctuated strongly, with government bonds > corporate bonds > credit bonds [22]. - The ChinaBond Aggregate Total Return Index rose 0.13%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.60% [23]. 3.2.3 Domestic Commodity Market - The domestic commodity market rose overall. The energy sector led the gains, while non - ferrous metals performed poorly. The Nanhua Commodity Index rose 2.14%, and the Nanhua Energy Index rose 9.63% [24]. 3.3 Outlook for Major Asset Prices - The market is short - term focused on the Middle - East situation, which may increase the price volatility of related major assets. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting this week for more clues on the US dollar's monetary policy [26].

Group 1 - Geopolitical risks have re-emerged as a primary focus in trading, with complex reactions in currency and interest rate markets compared to traditional safe-haven assets [1] - The USD/JPY exchange rate is currently fluctuating between 143.90 and 144.74, with a strong short-term technical structure above key moving averages [4] - The market anticipates that the Bank of Japan will maintain its short-term interest rate target at 0.5% until at least Q1 2026, limiting the potential for policy tightening [4][5] Group 2 - The recent escalation of tensions in the Middle East has led to rising international oil prices, providing temporary support for the USD while having a limited positive impact on the JPY [6] - The USD is expected to strengthen against the JPY, with analysts predicting a potential rise to 155 by the end of the year due to structural capital outflows from Japan and upcoming fiscal uncertainties [7] - The JPY is underperforming against other major currencies like the EUR and AUD, influenced by the stabilization of Eurozone policies and commodity price movements [6]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - In April, the sales revenue growth of national enterprises accelerated, with industrial and manufacturing sales revenue increasing year - on - year. High - tech and digital economy core industries maintained double - digit growth. The implementation of major water conservancy projects accelerated, and the scale of water conservancy investment remained high [1]. - The international standard on the inclusive digital economy for an aging society was released. Attention should be paid to the promotion of pension service - related programs [1]. - The credit spreads of the pharmaceutical and chemical industries have recently declined slightly [5]. 3) Summary by Directory a) Production Industry - Manufacturing: In April, the sales revenue of manufacturing enterprises increased by 4.4% year - on - year. The sales revenue of electrical machinery, computer, instrument and other manufacturing industries increased by more than 12%. High - tech and digital economy core industries maintained double - digit growth [1]. - Water Conservancy: From January to April, 294.36 billion yuan was invested in water conservancy construction, and 10 major projects were newly started [1]. b) Service Industry - Pension Service: The International Organization for Standardization released the international standard "General Requirements and Guidelines for the Inclusive Digital Economy in an Aging Society" led by China, which provides specific suggestions for scenarios where the elderly participate in the digital economy [1]. c) Industry Overview - Upstream: International oil prices declined compared to the previous day but increased significantly year - on - year compared to last week. Aluminum prices continued to rise, and glass prices declined in the short term [2]. - Midstream: The operating rate of PTA increased, while that of PX decreased. The operating rate of asphalt continued to rise [3]. - Downstream: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities were the same as the previous year and at a low level in the past three years. The number of domestic flights decreased periodically [4]. d) Market Pricing - The credit spreads of the pharmaceutical and chemical industries declined slightly recently [5]. e) Industry Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of multiple industries showed different trends. For example, the credit spreads of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and the chemical industry decreased compared to last week [48]. f) Key Industry Price Indicators - Many commodities showed price changes. For example, the prices of corn, eggs, and PTA increased, while the price of glass decreased [49].