Industry Overview Upstream - Prices of aluminum and copper in the non - ferrous metals sector have rebounded; international oil prices and liquefied natural gas prices are fluctuating [2] Midstream - In the chemical industry, PX prices are rising, while the operating rates of PTA and polyester are low; power plant coal consumption has decreased [3] Downstream - In the real estate sector, the sales of commercial housing in second - and third - tier cities have seasonally increased slightly; in the service industry, the film box office is in the off - season, and the number of domestic flights has seasonally increased slightly [3] Macroeconomic Events Production Industry - China is designing a new rare - earth export licensing system, and the Ministry of Commerce will carry out export control work on rare - earth related items in accordance with laws and regulations [1] Service Industry - In the first ten months of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 30.9 trillion yuan, 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year; RMB loans increased by 14.97 trillion yuan. At the end of October, M2 balance was 335.13 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%; M1 balance was 112 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%; M0 balance was 13.55 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 10.6%. The narrowing gap between M1 and M2 indicates positive signals such as increased business activity and improved consumer demand [1] Key Industry Price Indicators | Industry | Indicator | Price | YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of corn | 2161.4 yuan/ton | 0.40% | | | Spot price of eggs | 6.5 yuan/kg | 1.25% | | | Spot price of palm oil | 8710.0 yuan/ton | 0.11% | | | Spot price of cotton | 14819.5 yuan/ton | - 0.29% | | | Average wholesale price of pork | 18.1 yuan/kg | - 0.60% | | Non - ferrous metals | Spot price of copper | 87301.7 yuan/ton | 1.59% | | | Spot price of zinc | 22618.0 yuan/ton | 0.63% | | | Spot price of aluminum | 21933.3 yuan/ton | 2.60% | | | Spot price of nickel | 121150.0 yuan/ton | - 0.03% | | | Spot price of aluminum | 17606.3 yuan/ton | 1.51% | | Ferrous metals | Spot price of rebar | 3133.0 yuan/ton | 0.00% | | | Spot price of iron ore | 794.7 yuan/ton | - 0.08% | | | Spot price of wire rod | 3302.5 yuan/ton | - 0.08% | | | Spot price of glass | 14.0 yuan/square meter | - 1.06% | | Non - metals | Spot price of natural rubber | 14883.3 yuan/ton | 1.82% | | | China Plastics City Price Index | 772.0 | - 0.58% | | Energy | Spot price of WTI crude oil | 58.5 dollars/barrel | - 1.86% | | | Spot price of Brent crude oil | 62.7 dollars/barrel | - 1.28% | | | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | 4206.0 yuan/ton | - 1.91% | | | Coal price | 834.0 yuan/ton | 1.21% | | Chemical | Spot price of PTA | 4591.6 yuan/ton | 0.67% | | | Spot price of polyethylene | 6988.3 yuan/ton | 0.02% | | | Spot price of urea | 1630.0 yuan/ton | 2.03% | | | Spot price of soda ash | 1214.3 yuan/ton | 0.89% | | Real estate | Cement price index | 136.4 | - 0.16% | | | Building materials composite index | 112.3 points | 0.42% | | | Concrete price index | 90.8 points | - 0.14% | [38]

Industry Overview Upstream - Black: Iron ore and rebar prices declined [2] - Agriculture: Egg prices rebounded [2] - Energy: International oil prices declined and fluctuated recently [2] Midstream - Chemical: PTA operating rate decreased, urea operating rate increased slightly, and PX operating rate remained stable at a high level [2] - Energy: Coal consumption of power plants was at a low level [2] - Infrastructure: Asphalt operating rate was at a low level [2] Downstream - Real estate: Seasonal rebound in commercial housing sales in second - and third - tier cities [3] - Services: Domestic flight frequencies increased slightly [3] Key Events Production Industry - From November 10, 2025, to November 9, 2026, the US will suspend the implementation of the export control penetration rule [1] Service Industry - The People's Bank of China requires the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy to maintain a relatively loose social financing environment [1] Key Price Indicators | Industry | Indicator | Price | YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of eggs | - | +5.69% | | | Spot price of palm oil | 8714.0 yuan/ton | +0.32% | | | Average wholesale price of pork | 18.1 yuan/kg | +0.61% | | | Spot price of zinc | 22558.0 yuan/ton | +1.03% | | Non - ferrous metals | Spot price of aluminum | 21503.3 yuan/ton | +0.25% | | | Spot price of nickel | 122233.3 yuan/ton | +0.01% | | Black metals | Spot price of rebar | 3133.0 yuan/ton | -1.42% | | | Spot price of iron ore | 789.4 yuan/ton | -3.25% | | Non - metals | Spot price of natural rubber | 14675.0 yuan/ton | +0.69% | | Energy | Spot price of WTI crude oil | 59.8 dollars/barrel | -2.02% | | | Spot price of Brent crude oil | 63.6 dollars/barrel | -2.21% | | | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | 4242.0 yuan/ton | -1.81% | | | Coal price | 826.0 yuan/ton | +1.10% | | Chemical | Spot price of PTA | 4645.7 yuan/ton | +1.91% | | | Spot price of urea | 1627.5 yuan/ton | +2.36% | | | Spot price of soda ash | 1207.9 yuan/ton | +0.30% | | Real estate | Building materials composite index | 112.0 points | -0.88% | | | Concrete price index | 90.9 points | -0.10% | [37]

Group 1: Oil Market - International oil prices experienced the largest weekly decline since late June, with U.S. oil dropping by 5.12% and Brent oil by 4.42% last week [3] - The decline in oil prices is attributed to geopolitical factors, including the anticipation of a potential meeting between U.S. and Russian leaders, which raised hopes for a peace agreement in Ukraine, leading to a reduction in geopolitical risk premium [3] - Additionally, the "OPEC+" group is expected to increase production in September, further contributing to the downward pressure on oil prices [3] Group 2: Gold Market - International gold prices rose by 2.69% last week, driven by multiple factors including the U.S. government's nomination for a vacant Federal Reserve board position, which has increased market optimism regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Fed [6] - Tariff policies have also impacted the gold market, with two Swiss gold refining companies reducing or halting gold exports to the U.S., contributing to the upward movement in gold prices [6]

上周，美国股市因公共假期休市一天。在四个交易日里，特朗普政府所谓"大而美"的大规模税收和支出 法案在美国国会参众两院艰难闯关，牵动市场神经，美国三大股指走出震荡行情。最终这一备受争议的 法案在当地时间上周五由特朗普签署成为法律。不过，在美国和越南达成贸易协议以及美国6月新增非 农就业人数大幅高于预期等积极因素的带动下，美国三大股指上周累计上涨，标普500指数和纳指两次 刷新收盘历史纪录。其中，道指累计上涨2.30%，标普500指数上涨1.72%，纳指上涨1.62%。 上周国际油价上涨 贵金属期货方面，上周，全球贸易局势仍面临很大不确定性，加之中东地缘冲突风险抬头，市场避险情 绪有所升温，推动国际金价累计上涨1.68%。 美国"对等关税"暂缓期本周结束 投资者关注美国与主要贸易伙伴谈判进展 本周，投资者较为关注的仍然是关税方面的消息。9日，也就是本周三，美国所谓"对等关税"90天暂缓 期将结束。截至目前，美国仍未与欧盟、日本等主要贸易伙伴达成协议。美国总统特朗普上周日（6 日）表示，他可能会在当地时间周一发出12或15封关于关税的信函，但并未透露这些信函发送的目的 地。有分析认为，美国在与主要贸易伙伴谈判进展不 ...

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices have slightly declined in the short term, with Trump stating he does not believe the ceasefire agreement has been violated when questioned about it [1] Group 1 - International oil prices are experiencing a minor decrease [1] - Trump's comments suggest a stable outlook regarding the ceasefire agreement [1]

Tabl e_Title 2025 年 6 月 16 日 大类资产运行周报（20250609-20250613） 地缘冲突升温 国际油价短期攀升 风险提示：美国通胀数据改善不及预期 大类资产运行报告 全球主要资产表现 | | 近一周变动 | | --- | --- | | 新兴市场股市指数 | 0.60% | | Table_Fi rstSto ck 发达市场股市指数 主要资产涨跌幅表现 | -0.35% | | 全球债券指数 | 0.81% | | 全球国债指数 | 0.78% | | 全球信用债指数 姓名 | 0.90% | | 美元指数 | 分析师 -1.07% | | SAC 执业证书编号：S1111111111111 | | | RJ/CRB 商品价格指数 | Xxxxxx @essence.com.cn 2.99% | | | 021-68767839 | | 标普高盛商品全收益指数 | 4.86% | 丁沛舟 高级分析师 期货从业资格号：F3002969 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012005 dingpz@essence.com.cn 010-58747724 相关报告 大类资产运行周报（202 ...

Group 1 - Geopolitical risks have re-emerged as a primary focus in trading, with complex reactions in currency and interest rate markets compared to traditional safe-haven assets [1] - The USD/JPY exchange rate is currently fluctuating between 143.90 and 144.74, with a strong short-term technical structure above key moving averages [4] - The market anticipates that the Bank of Japan will maintain its short-term interest rate target at 0.5% until at least Q1 2026, limiting the potential for policy tightening [4][5] Group 2 - The recent escalation of tensions in the Middle East has led to rising international oil prices, providing temporary support for the USD while having a limited positive impact on the JPY [6] - The USD is expected to strengthen against the JPY, with analysts predicting a potential rise to 155 by the end of the year due to structural capital outflows from Japan and upcoming fiscal uncertainties [7] - The JPY is underperforming against other major currencies like the EUR and AUD, influenced by the stabilization of Eurozone policies and commodity price movements [6]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - In April, the sales revenue growth of national enterprises accelerated, with industrial and manufacturing sales revenue increasing year - on - year. High - tech and digital economy core industries maintained double - digit growth. The implementation of major water conservancy projects accelerated, and the scale of water conservancy investment remained high [1]. - The international standard on the inclusive digital economy for an aging society was released. Attention should be paid to the promotion of pension service - related programs [1]. - The credit spreads of the pharmaceutical and chemical industries have recently declined slightly [5]. 3) Summary by Directory a) Production Industry - Manufacturing: In April, the sales revenue of manufacturing enterprises increased by 4.4% year - on - year. The sales revenue of electrical machinery, computer, instrument and other manufacturing industries increased by more than 12%. High - tech and digital economy core industries maintained double - digit growth [1]. - Water Conservancy: From January to April, 294.36 billion yuan was invested in water conservancy construction, and 10 major projects were newly started [1]. b) Service Industry - Pension Service: The International Organization for Standardization released the international standard "General Requirements and Guidelines for the Inclusive Digital Economy in an Aging Society" led by China, which provides specific suggestions for scenarios where the elderly participate in the digital economy [1]. c) Industry Overview - Upstream: International oil prices declined compared to the previous day but increased significantly year - on - year compared to last week. Aluminum prices continued to rise, and glass prices declined in the short term [2]. - Midstream: The operating rate of PTA increased, while that of PX decreased. The operating rate of asphalt continued to rise [3]. - Downstream: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities were the same as the previous year and at a low level in the past three years. The number of domestic flights decreased periodically [4]. d) Market Pricing - The credit spreads of the pharmaceutical and chemical industries declined slightly recently [5]. e) Industry Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of multiple industries showed different trends. For example, the credit spreads of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and the chemical industry decreased compared to last week [48]. f) Key Industry Price Indicators - Many commodities showed price changes. For example, the prices of corn, eggs, and PTA increased, while the price of glass decreased [49].

Tabl e_Title 2025 年 4 月 28 日 大类资产运行周报（20250421-20250425） 风险提示：美国通胀数据改善不及预期 大类资产运行报告 全球主要资产表现 | | 近一周变动 | | --- | --- | | 新兴市场股市指数 | 2.81% | | Table_Fi rstSto ck 发达市场股市指数 主要资产涨跌幅表现 | 4.16% | | 全球债券指数 | 0.33% | | 全球国债指数 | 0.13% | | 全球信用债指数 姓名 | 0.73% 分析师 | | 美元指数 | 0.36% SAC 执业证书编号：S1111111111111 | | RJ/CRB 商品价格指数 | Xxxxxx @essence.com.cn 1.72% | | | 021-68767839 | | 标普高盛商品全收益指数 | -0.15% | 丁沛舟 高级分析师 期货从业资格号：F3002969 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012005 dingpz@essence.com.cn 010-58747724 相关报告 大类资产运行周报（20250113 -20250117）-美国通胀数据 ...