上周国际油价创下6月底以来最大单周跌幅 上周，市场等待美俄两国元首可能会晤的消息，令投资者关注俄乌达成和平协议，地缘政治风险溢价消 退，加之"欧佩克+"将于9月再次增产，国际油价下跌，美油上周累计下跌5.12%，布油累计下跌 4.42%，国际油价创下6月底以来最大单周跌幅。 上周国际金价累计上涨2.69% 上周，美国政府提名美联储空缺理事职务，令市场更加看好美联储年内降息前景，另外因受关税政策影 响，已有两家瑞士黄金精炼厂减少或暂停对美国的黄金出口，多个因素推高国际金价，上周国际金价累 计上涨2.69%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices have slightly declined in the short term, with Trump stating he does not believe the ceasefire agreement has been violated when questioned about it [1] Group 1 - International oil prices are experiencing a minor decrease [1] - Trump's comments suggest a stable outlook regarding the ceasefire agreement [1]

Tabl e_Title 2025 年 6 月 16 日 大类资产运行周报（20250609-20250613） 地缘冲突升温 国际油价短期攀升 风险提示：美国通胀数据改善不及预期 大类资产运行报告 全球主要资产表现 | | 近一周变动 | | --- | --- | | 新兴市场股市指数 | 0.60% | | Table_Fi rstSto ck 发达市场股市指数 主要资产涨跌幅表现 | -0.35% | | 全球债券指数 | 0.81% | | 全球国债指数 | 0.78% | | 全球信用债指数 姓名 | 0.90% | | 美元指数 | 分析师 -1.07% | | SAC 执业证书编号：S1111111111111 | | | RJ/CRB 商品价格指数 | Xxxxxx @essence.com.cn 2.99% | | | 021-68767839 | | 标普高盛商品全收益指数 | 4.86% | 丁沛舟 高级分析师 期货从业资格号：F3002969 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012005 dingpz@essence.com.cn 010-58747724 相关报告 大类资产运行周报（202 ...

Group 1 - Geopolitical risks have re-emerged as a primary focus in trading, with complex reactions in currency and interest rate markets compared to traditional safe-haven assets [1] - The USD/JPY exchange rate is currently fluctuating between 143.90 and 144.74, with a strong short-term technical structure above key moving averages [4] - The market anticipates that the Bank of Japan will maintain its short-term interest rate target at 0.5% until at least Q1 2026, limiting the potential for policy tightening [4][5] Group 2 - The recent escalation of tensions in the Middle East has led to rising international oil prices, providing temporary support for the USD while having a limited positive impact on the JPY [6] - The USD is expected to strengthen against the JPY, with analysts predicting a potential rise to 155 by the end of the year due to structural capital outflows from Japan and upcoming fiscal uncertainties [7] - The JPY is underperforming against other major currencies like the EUR and AUD, influenced by the stabilization of Eurozone policies and commodity price movements [6]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - In April, the sales revenue growth of national enterprises accelerated, with industrial and manufacturing sales revenue increasing year - on - year. High - tech and digital economy core industries maintained double - digit growth. The implementation of major water conservancy projects accelerated, and the scale of water conservancy investment remained high [1]. - The international standard on the inclusive digital economy for an aging society was released. Attention should be paid to the promotion of pension service - related programs [1]. - The credit spreads of the pharmaceutical and chemical industries have recently declined slightly [5]. 3) Summary by Directory a) Production Industry - Manufacturing: In April, the sales revenue of manufacturing enterprises increased by 4.4% year - on - year. The sales revenue of electrical machinery, computer, instrument and other manufacturing industries increased by more than 12%. High - tech and digital economy core industries maintained double - digit growth [1]. - Water Conservancy: From January to April, 294.36 billion yuan was invested in water conservancy construction, and 10 major projects were newly started [1]. b) Service Industry - Pension Service: The International Organization for Standardization released the international standard "General Requirements and Guidelines for the Inclusive Digital Economy in an Aging Society" led by China, which provides specific suggestions for scenarios where the elderly participate in the digital economy [1]. c) Industry Overview - Upstream: International oil prices declined compared to the previous day but increased significantly year - on - year compared to last week. Aluminum prices continued to rise, and glass prices declined in the short term [2]. - Midstream: The operating rate of PTA increased, while that of PX decreased. The operating rate of asphalt continued to rise [3]. - Downstream: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities were the same as the previous year and at a low level in the past three years. The number of domestic flights decreased periodically [4]. d) Market Pricing - The credit spreads of the pharmaceutical and chemical industries declined slightly recently [5]. e) Industry Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of multiple industries showed different trends. For example, the credit spreads of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and the chemical industry decreased compared to last week [48]. f) Key Industry Price Indicators - Many commodities showed price changes. For example, the prices of corn, eggs, and PTA increased, while the price of glass decreased [49].

Tabl e_Title 2025 年 4 月 28 日 大类资产运行周报（20250421-20250425） 风险提示：美国通胀数据改善不及预期 大类资产运行报告 全球主要资产表现 | | 近一周变动 | | --- | --- | | 新兴市场股市指数 | 2.81% | | Table_Fi rstSto ck 发达市场股市指数 主要资产涨跌幅表现 | 4.16% | | 全球债券指数 | 0.33% | | 全球国债指数 | 0.13% | | 全球信用债指数 姓名 | 0.73% 分析师 | | 美元指数 | 0.36% SAC 执业证书编号：S1111111111111 | | RJ/CRB 商品价格指数 | Xxxxxx @essence.com.cn 1.72% | | | 021-68767839 | | 标普高盛商品全收益指数 | -0.15% | 丁沛舟 高级分析师 期货从业资格号：F3002969 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012005 dingpz@essence.com.cn 010-58747724 相关报告 大类资产运行周报（20250113 -20250117）-美国通胀数据 ...