Macro Economic Overview - The report indicates an increase in volatility in international capital markets, with a recommended asset allocation order of equities > commodities > bonds > currencies [1][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.08% this week, while the ten-year government bond yield decreased by 2 basis points to 1.81% [1][11] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests an overweight position in equities, emphasizing the importance of the implementation of "incremental" policies [2][3] - A cautious stance is recommended for bonds due to potential short-term impacts from the "stock-bond seesaw" effect, leading to an underweight allocation [2][3] - The report maintains a neutral position on commodities, highlighting the need to monitor fiscal spending in 2026 [2][3] Economic Data Insights - Industrial profits for December showed a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, reversing a previous decline [4][18] - The fiscal revenue for 2025 was reported at 21.6 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.7% year-on-year, while fiscal expenditure increased by 1% [4][18] Market Performance - The report notes that the A-share market experienced mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index leading gains while the ChiNext Index saw a decline of 3.78% [36] - In the commodities market, coal futures rose by 2.75%, and iron ore futures increased by 0.13% [1][11] Policy Developments - The report highlights the publication of a significant article by President Xi Jinping on the importance of building a strong financial nation, emphasizing the need for a robust economic foundation and effective financial institutions [4][19] - The State Council issued a plan to accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, outlining 12 policy measures targeting key sectors [4][20]

Market Overview - The US dollar index faced downward pressure this week, influenced by Trump's stance on Greenland and fluctuating tariff comments, leading to a volatile decline [1] - Gold and silver prices surged due to heightened risk aversion, with gold approaching $5000 per ounce and silver nearing $100 per ounce [1] - Non-US currencies like the euro, pound, and Australian dollar strengthened against the US dollar, while the USD/JPY pair saw significant fluctuations, with a drop of nearly 200 points on Friday [1] Oil Market - International oil prices experienced fluctuations driven by geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions, with prices expected to rise for the fifth consecutive week [2] Investment Bank Insights - Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 year-end gold price forecast from $4900 to $5400 per ounce, citing increased demand from private investors and central banks [5] - The head of commodity strategy at Societe Generale noted that new geopolitical uncertainties are pushing gold prices towards $5000 per ounce faster than expected [6] Central Bank Actions - Poland's central bank approved the purchase of 150 tons of gold, aiming to increase its reserves to 700 tons, which is seen as a key move to enhance national financial security [23] Corporate Developments - Alibaba is planning to push its semiconductor division, Pingtouge, towards an IPO, indicating a significant move in the AI chip market [27] - Tesla's Optimus robot is expected to start public sales by the end of next year, with plans for widespread deployment in factories and homes [28] Geopolitical Developments - The US government is reportedly accelerating efforts to change the Cuban regime by applying economic pressure, following a strategy similar to that used in Venezuela [24]

1. Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - From January 12th to January 16th, the US December CPI year - on - year growth rate met expectations and remained the same as the previous value. Global geopolitical risks continued to impact the market. The US dollar index rose weekly. Stocks and commodities performed strongly, while the bond market declined. In terms of the US dollar, commodities > stocks > bonds. In the domestic market, the stock market was divided, and the bond market and commodities rose weekly. Commodities > bonds > stocks. Geopolitical risk factors may still change in the short - term, significantly affecting the prices of major asset classes [5][8][19]. 3. Summary by Directory Global Major Asset Performance - **Global Stock Market**: From January 12th to January 16th, market sentiment was relatively cautious. Trump called for setting a 10% credit card interest rate cap starting from January 20, 2026, pressuring US stocks. Most global stock markets rose, with the Asia - Pacific region leading in gains. Emerging markets outperformed developed markets, and the VIX index rose weekly. For example, the MSCI Asia - Pacific region rose 2.75% weekly and 5.62% year - to - date, while the MSCI US fell 0.38% weekly but rose 1.39% year - to - date [10][13][14]. - **Global Bond Market**: Recently, most Fed officials' statements were hawkish, cooling market expectations of interest rate cuts. Medium - and long - term US Treasury yields generally rose, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield rising 6BP to 4.24% weekly. The bond market was weak, and globally, high - yield bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [16]. - **Global Foreign Exchange Market**: From January 12th to January 16th, data such as the US November retail sales month - on - month growth rate were good, and the US dollar index rose weekly. Most major non - US currencies depreciated against the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate was volatile and strong. The US dollar index rose 0.23% weekly [16][17]. - **Global Commodity Market**: Geopolitical factors supported the weekly rise of international oil prices. Precious metal prices rose, while most non - ferrous metal and agricultural product prices fell. International silver prices rose significantly [17]. Domestic Major Asset Performance - **Domestic Stock Market**: Market risk appetite declined. Most major broad - based A - share indices rose, and the average daily trading volume of the two markets increased compared to the previous week. The performance of large - cap blue - chip stocks was weak. Computer and electronics sectors led in gains, while the military and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors performed poorly. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.45% weekly [20][22]. - **Domestic Bond Market**: From January 12th to January 16th, the central bank's net open - market operations injected 111.28 billion yuan. The capital market fluctuated, and the bond market was strong weekly. Overall, government bonds > credit bonds > corporate bonds [23]. - **Domestic Commodity Market**: The domestic commodity market rose weekly. Among major commodity sectors, precious metals led in gains. For example, the Nanhua Precious Metals Index rose 9.41% weekly [24][25]. Major Asset Price Outlook - Geopolitical risk factors may still change in the short - term, significantly affecting the prices of major asset classes. It is necessary to pay attention to their subsequent changes [4][26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - From December 22 to December 26, 2025, market sentiment improved, and risk - asset prices rose. In the global market, the U.S. Q3 real GDP annualized quarterly - on - quarterly rate was 4.3%, higher than the previous value and expectations, with the U.S. dollar index falling weekly, and stocks, bonds, and commodities rising. In the domestic market, the year - on - year growth rate of the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in November narrowed, and stocks and commodities rose weekly, while the bond market was strong. Overall, in terms of price performance, commodities > stocks > bonds both globally and domestically. In the short term, attention should be paid to changes in geopolitical factors as year - end geopolitical risks have increased, affecting short - term price fluctuations of major assets [3][6][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Major Asset Overall Performance: U.S. Dollar Index Drops, Stocks, Bonds, and Commodities Rise - **Global Stock Market**: The short - term risk appetite improved, and major global stock markets generally rose. The Asia - Pacific region had the highest increase, and emerging markets outperformed developed markets. The VIX index continued to decline at a low level. For example, the MSCI Asia - Pacific region rose 2.20% in a week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.88%, etc. [8][11] - **Global Bond Market**: Fed officials showed differences in their stances on the January 2026 monetary policy. Medium - and long - term U.S. bond yields generally declined, with the yield of the 10 - year U.S. bond falling 2BP to 4.14% weekly. The bond market rose weekly, and globally, government bonds > credit bonds > high - yield bonds [15]. - **Global Foreign Exchange Market**: Recent data showed the resilience of the U.S. economy, and there were differences in the policy expectations of major global central banks. The U.S. dollar index fell weekly by 0.69%, and major non - U.S. currencies generally appreciated against the U.S. dollar. The RMB exchange rate was strong [16]. - **Global Commodity Market**: The price - driving factors were not obvious, and international oil prices fluctuated strongly weekly. Affected by supply - demand factors and the weakening of the U.S. dollar index, international silver prices rose significantly. Most major agricultural products and non - ferrous metals prices rose [17]. 3.2 Domestic Major Asset Performance: Stocks and Commodities Rise, Bond Market Runs Strongly - **Domestic Stock Market**: Market sentiment warmed up, and major A - share broad - based indexes rose. The average daily trading volume of the two markets increased compared with the previous week. In terms of style, the growth style had the highest increase. In terms of sectors, non - ferrous metals and military industries led the increase, while the commercial retail and banking sectors performed poorly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.88% weekly [20]. - **Domestic Bond Market**: The central bank's net investment in the open - market operations was 1.552 billion yuan, and the capital market remained generally stable. The bond market was strong weekly, with government bonds > credit bonds > corporate bonds [24]. - **Domestic Commodity Market**: The domestic commodity market rose as a whole. Among the major commodity sectors, precious metals led the increase [26]. 3.3 Major Asset Price Outlook: Pay Attention to Geopolitical Factor Changes in the Short Term - At the end of the year, geopolitical risks have increased, which will have a certain impact on the short - term price fluctuations of major assets. Therefore, close attention should be paid to changes in major global geopolitical factors [27].

Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market experienced a general decline on December 9, with most active varieties closing lower. The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1492.50 points, down 18.41 points or 1.22% from the previous trading day [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Index also fell to 2063.54 points, a decrease of 25.45 points or 1.22% [1] Commodity Performance - The metal sector saw widespread weakness, with industrial silicon leading the decline, dropping over 3% and hitting a three-month low. In contrast, polysilicon rose by 3.45%, driven by positive news regarding a new polysilicon storage platform [2][3] - The energy and chemical sectors were negatively impacted by a more than 2% drop in international oil prices, leading to declines across the board on December 9 [1][6] Polysilicon Market - Polysilicon prices surged due to market speculation about a new storage platform established by Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., which is believed to be a platform for integrating polysilicon production capacity. This speculation has bolstered bullish sentiment in the polysilicon market [3] - Despite the positive sentiment, analysts caution that the polysilicon market is still facing a dual reduction in supply and demand, with current market conditions relying heavily on major companies to support prices [3] Swine Futures - Swine futures continued their upward trend, with the main contract rising by 1.55% and reaching a three-week high. Expectations of increased demand for processed pork due to upcoming cold weather and transportation cost increases contributed to this rise [4] - Analysts noted that the pressure on swine supply has decreased, and the market is stabilizing as demand strengthens, particularly with the arrival of the snow season [4] Industrial Silicon and Aluminum - Industrial silicon prices fell sharply, influenced by weak demand and stable supply conditions. The overall supply of industrial silicon is steady due to increased production from northern manufacturers, despite low operating rates in southern regions [5] - Aluminum oxide prices hit a new low since listing at 2533 yuan/ton, primarily due to excess supply and limited production cuts. The overall operating capacity of aluminum oxide remains high, indicating continued downward pressure on prices [6]

Industry Overview Upstream - Prices of aluminum and copper in the non - ferrous metals sector have rebounded; international oil prices and liquefied natural gas prices are fluctuating [2] Midstream - In the chemical industry, PX prices are rising, while the operating rates of PTA and polyester are low; power plant coal consumption has decreased [3] Downstream - In the real estate sector, the sales of commercial housing in second - and third - tier cities have seasonally increased slightly; in the service industry, the film box office is in the off - season, and the number of domestic flights has seasonally increased slightly [3] Macroeconomic Events Production Industry - China is designing a new rare - earth export licensing system, and the Ministry of Commerce will carry out export control work on rare - earth related items in accordance with laws and regulations [1] Service Industry - In the first ten months of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 30.9 trillion yuan, 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year; RMB loans increased by 14.97 trillion yuan. At the end of October, M2 balance was 335.13 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%; M1 balance was 112 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%; M0 balance was 13.55 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 10.6%. The narrowing gap between M1 and M2 indicates positive signals such as increased business activity and improved consumer demand [1] Key Industry Price Indicators | Industry | Indicator | Price | YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of corn | 2161.4 yuan/ton | 0.40% | | | Spot price of eggs | 6.5 yuan/kg | 1.25% | | | Spot price of palm oil | 8710.0 yuan/ton | 0.11% | | | Spot price of cotton | 14819.5 yuan/ton | - 0.29% | | | Average wholesale price of pork | 18.1 yuan/kg | - 0.60% | | Non - ferrous metals | Spot price of copper | 87301.7 yuan/ton | 1.59% | | | Spot price of zinc | 22618.0 yuan/ton | 0.63% | | | Spot price of aluminum | 21933.3 yuan/ton | 2.60% | | | Spot price of nickel | 121150.0 yuan/ton | - 0.03% | | | Spot price of aluminum | 17606.3 yuan/ton | 1.51% | | Ferrous metals | Spot price of rebar | 3133.0 yuan/ton | 0.00% | | | Spot price of iron ore | 794.7 yuan/ton | - 0.08% | | | Spot price of wire rod | 3302.5 yuan/ton | - 0.08% | | | Spot price of glass | 14.0 yuan/square meter | - 1.06% | | Non - metals | Spot price of natural rubber | 14883.3 yuan/ton | 1.82% | | | China Plastics City Price Index | 772.0 | - 0.58% | | Energy | Spot price of WTI crude oil | 58.5 dollars/barrel | - 1.86% | | | Spot price of Brent crude oil | 62.7 dollars/barrel | - 1.28% | | | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | 4206.0 yuan/ton | - 1.91% | | | Coal price | 834.0 yuan/ton | 1.21% | | Chemical | Spot price of PTA | 4591.6 yuan/ton | 0.67% | | | Spot price of polyethylene | 6988.3 yuan/ton | 0.02% | | | Spot price of urea | 1630.0 yuan/ton | 2.03% | | | Spot price of soda ash | 1214.3 yuan/ton | 0.89% | | Real estate | Cement price index | 136.4 | - 0.16% | | | Building materials composite index | 112.3 points | 0.42% | | | Concrete price index | 90.8 points | - 0.14% | [38]

Industry Overview Upstream - Black: Iron ore and rebar prices declined [2] - Agriculture: Egg prices rebounded [2] - Energy: International oil prices declined and fluctuated recently [2] Midstream - Chemical: PTA operating rate decreased, urea operating rate increased slightly, and PX operating rate remained stable at a high level [2] - Energy: Coal consumption of power plants was at a low level [2] - Infrastructure: Asphalt operating rate was at a low level [2] Downstream - Real estate: Seasonal rebound in commercial housing sales in second - and third - tier cities [3] - Services: Domestic flight frequencies increased slightly [3] Key Events Production Industry - From November 10, 2025, to November 9, 2026, the US will suspend the implementation of the export control penetration rule [1] Service Industry - The People's Bank of China requires the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy to maintain a relatively loose social financing environment [1] Key Price Indicators | Industry | Indicator | Price | YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of eggs | - | +5.69% | | | Spot price of palm oil | 8714.0 yuan/ton | +0.32% | | | Average wholesale price of pork | 18.1 yuan/kg | +0.61% | | | Spot price of zinc | 22558.0 yuan/ton | +1.03% | | Non - ferrous metals | Spot price of aluminum | 21503.3 yuan/ton | +0.25% | | | Spot price of nickel | 122233.3 yuan/ton | +0.01% | | Black metals | Spot price of rebar | 3133.0 yuan/ton | -1.42% | | | Spot price of iron ore | 789.4 yuan/ton | -3.25% | | Non - metals | Spot price of natural rubber | 14675.0 yuan/ton | +0.69% | | Energy | Spot price of WTI crude oil | 59.8 dollars/barrel | -2.02% | | | Spot price of Brent crude oil | 63.6 dollars/barrel | -2.21% | | | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | 4242.0 yuan/ton | -1.81% | | | Coal price | 826.0 yuan/ton | +1.10% | | Chemical | Spot price of PTA | 4645.7 yuan/ton | +1.91% | | | Spot price of urea | 1627.5 yuan/ton | +2.36% | | | Spot price of soda ash | 1207.9 yuan/ton | +0.30% | | Real estate | Building materials composite index | 112.0 points | -0.88% | | | Concrete price index | 90.9 points | -0.10% | [37]

Group 1: Oil Market - International oil prices experienced the largest weekly decline since late June, with U.S. oil dropping by 5.12% and Brent oil by 4.42% last week [3] - The decline in oil prices is attributed to geopolitical factors, including the anticipation of a potential meeting between U.S. and Russian leaders, which raised hopes for a peace agreement in Ukraine, leading to a reduction in geopolitical risk premium [3] - Additionally, the "OPEC+" group is expected to increase production in September, further contributing to the downward pressure on oil prices [3] Group 2: Gold Market - International gold prices rose by 2.69% last week, driven by multiple factors including the U.S. government's nomination for a vacant Federal Reserve board position, which has increased market optimism regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Fed [6] - Tariff policies have also impacted the gold market, with two Swiss gold refining companies reducing or halting gold exports to the U.S., contributing to the upward movement in gold prices [6]

Group 1: U.S. Stock Market Performance - The U.S. stock market experienced fluctuations due to the controversial tax and spending bill signed by President Trump, which passed through Congress amid market concerns [1] - The three major U.S. stock indices saw cumulative gains over the week, with the Dow Jones increasing by 2.30%, the S&P 500 rising by 1.72%, and the Nasdaq up by 1.62% [1] Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices rose last week, driven by expectations that the U.S.-Vietnam trade agreement would boost oil demand and geopolitical risks from Iran's suspension of cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency [2] - U.S. oil futures increased by 2.26%, while Brent crude futures rose by 0.78% [2] Group 3: OPEC+ Production Increase - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations of 411,000 barrels per day, which may lead to downward pressure on oil prices due to potential oversupply [3] Group 4: Gold Market Trends - International gold prices rose by 1.68% last week, influenced by heightened market uncertainty regarding global trade and increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [4] Group 5: U.S. Tariff Negotiations - Investors are closely monitoring the end of the 90-day suspension period for U.S. "reciprocal tariffs," with no agreements reached with major trading partners like the EU and Japan [5] - President Trump indicated he might send multiple letters regarding tariffs, raising concerns about unilateral trade strategies and their potential impact on the global economy [5] Group 6: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is set to release the minutes from its June monetary policy meeting, where it maintained interest rates, with market expectations leaning towards a high probability of a rate cut in September [6] - Economic data from major Eurozone economies, including Germany and France, will also be released, with predictions of potential rate cuts from the European Central Bank [6]

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices have slightly declined in the short term, with Trump stating he does not believe the ceasefire agreement has been violated when questioned about it [1] Group 1 - International oil prices are experiencing a minor decrease [1] - Trump's comments suggest a stable outlook regarding the ceasefire agreement [1]