证 券 研 究 报 告 计算机行业深度研究报告 推荐（维持） 国产智算芯片：需求强劲，性能生态再进阶 行业研究 计算机 2025 年 08 月 29 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴鸣远 邮箱：wumingyuan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040001 联系人：周楚薇 邮箱：zhouchuwei@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 337 | 0.04 | | 总市值(亿元) | 60,629.86 | 5.22 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 54,102.54 | 5.78 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 16.8% | 19.3% | 114.9% | | 相对表现 | 9.2% | 4.5% | 78.7% | -4% 37% 77% 117% 24/08 24/11 25/01 25/04 25/06 25/08 2024-08-29~2025-08-29 计算机 沪深300 相关研究报告 《计 ...

Group 1: Key Recommendations - The report highlights the performance of global asset classes, noting that global stock markets saw an overall increase, with A-shares, Japanese stocks, and US stocks performing well. Commodity futures such as copper and aluminum rose, while gold and oil prices fell. The US dollar index decreased, leading to a general appreciation of non-US currencies [6][8]. - The report indicates that from January to May 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China reached 27,204.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, with a significant drop of 9.1% in May alone. This decline is attributed to the mining industry, while the equipment manufacturing sector maintained a relatively high level of profitability [8][17]. - The report emphasizes the strong demand for AI chips in China, with the domestic AI chip market expected to grow significantly. The company Cambricon (688256) is identified as a key player, with a projected revenue growth of 4,230.22% year-on-year in Q1 2025, driven by strong domestic demand for AI chip replacements [11][12]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The report discusses the performance of the mechanical equipment industry, noting that from January to May 2025, the overall sales of forklifts reached 601,800 units, a year-on-year increase of 9.33%. The export market outperformed the domestic market, with exports growing by 14.7% [21][22]. - The report highlights the trend towards automation in the forklift market, particularly the growth of unmanned forklifts, which saw a 46.6% increase in sales in 2023. This shift is driven by rising labor costs and the need for improved safety in logistics operations [23][24]. - The report suggests that the domestic forklift market is closely tied to the manufacturing sector's recovery and logistics demand, with positive macroeconomic indicators supporting future growth in forklift demand [22][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the semiconductor and AI sectors, including 中芯国际 (SMIC), 海光信息 (Haiguang), and others, indicating strong growth potential in the domestic AI and computing landscape [5][6]. Core Insights - The domestic AI landscape is witnessing significant advancements with the emergence of models like 豆包 (Doubao) and DeepSeek, which are leading the charge in multi-modal and lightweight AI model development, respectively [1][2]. - The report highlights a shift towards domestic computing power solutions, with chip manufacturers rapidly adapting to the evolving AI ecosystem, particularly through advancements in semiconductor processes and AI training capabilities [2][3]. - There is a notable increase in capital expenditure among cloud computing firms, driven by the rising demand for AI computing infrastructure, which is expected to lead to a "volume and price rise" scenario in the cloud computing market [3][4]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Breakthroughs in Domestic AI Models - 豆包 has emerged as a leading multi-modal model, enhancing capabilities in speech, image, and code processing, with a significant release of its visual understanding model in December 2024 [1][11]. - DeepSeek focuses on lightweight model upgrades, achieving a remarkable cost-performance ratio with its DeepSeek-V3 model, which has 671 billion total parameters and costs only 557.6 million USD, positioning it among the world's top models [1][12]. - The rapid iteration of domestic models, including updates from 通义千问 and others, reflects a competitive landscape that is accelerating the development of AI applications [1][34]. Section 2: Advancements in Domestic Computing Power - 中芯国际 is advancing its semiconductor processes, with N+1 and N+2 technologies being developed to support the growing demand for AI chips, achieving significant performance improvements [2][56]. - The report notes that the domestic chip industry is evolving, with companies like 昇腾 (Ascend) and others making strides in AI training and inference capabilities, thereby reducing reliance on international competitors [2][59]. - The cloud computing sector is experiencing a capital expenditure boom, with companies like 华勤 and 浪潮 rapidly deploying servers that are compatible with domestic computing power solutions [3][4]. Section 3: Infrastructure and Supply Chain Developments - The report emphasizes the need for enhanced computing infrastructure to meet the surging demand for AI applications, with significant investments being made in server and power supply innovations [3][4]. - Innovations in power supply and cooling systems, particularly the shift from traditional air cooling to liquid cooling, are becoming essential to support the increasing power density in data centers [4]. - The report identifies key players in the supply chain, including companies in power supply, cooling, and server manufacturing, that are poised to benefit from the growth of the AI and computing sectors [5].