前言 2025年最后关头，那个令全球半导体产业链悬心已久的靴子，终于以一种令人玩味的方式落了地。 华盛顿在新年倒计时的缝隙里，给远在东亚的三星和SK海力士递出了一纸通行证，然而，这并非什么 新年的馈赠，细看之下，更像是一副做工精细的"金手铐"。 几乎同一时间，北京的外交辞令穿越大洋，以一种极为精准且冷静的措辞，给这看似松动、实则暗流涌 动的局势定了调。 这两件事表面上看是商业许可与外交总结，实则是中美博弈进入新阶段的信号。 之前拜登时期虽然也是限制，但那时候有所谓的"无限期豁免"，像是个虽然也没锁死但也不太管你的模 糊地带，而现在，特朗普团队这一手玩得显然更具商人生意场的精明与控制欲：把"无限期"收回来，换 成了"一年一审"。 这就像是从给房客一把备用钥匙，变成了每次进门都得按门铃，且房东随时保留不开门的权利。 美国商务部这次的规定虽然看似简化了单次审批的繁琐——企业只要提前把明年的计划、设备种类、数 量列个清单报上去就行，但这实际上赋予了白宫更强的把控力。 "放行"背后的心思 要把这事看透，首先得剥开那张"许可证"的糖衣，虽然韩国股市随着消息传出泛起了一丝红光，且业内 都说企业能"喘口气"，但这口气喘得并不 ...

中国反制行动再出狠招，商务部高举"关税大棒"狠打美日同盟。 11月30日，商务部发布公告称将对原产于美国、日本、韩国和马来西亚的进口聚苯硫醚（PPS）进行为 期不超过1年的"反倾销措施期终复审调查"。 调查结束前美国相关企业继续承担最高不超过220.9%的反倾销税，日本公司的税率不超过69.1%。 PPS是美国菲利普石油公司1967年发明的一种工程塑料，日韩等国企业引进美国技术进行升级改造后， 将PPS推向全球市场。 作为目前全球最大的工程塑料消费国，2024年我国PPS进口依赖度高达53.6%。那么，我国为什么要对 依赖进口的工业原材料加征反倾销税呢？ 一、"卡脖子"的现实 别看PPS发明距今已经有50多年，全球能生产这种"塑料黄金"的企业还真没有几家，特别是用在电子产 业、航空航天等领域的高端PPS，核心专利几乎完全掌握在日本DIC和东丽两家企业手中。 如果真能用钱解决PPS"卡脖子"的问题也就算了，关键是美日等国从未放开高端PPS出口限制。 就像英伟达用性能大打折扣的"特供版"芯片收割中国市场一样，那些拥有专利优势的海外PPS巨头一直 在向我国低价倾销中低端产品。2020年我国为保护刚刚起步的PPS自研 ...

Group 1 - TSMC reported impressive Q3 results with revenue of 989.92 billion NTD (approximately 230 billion RMB), a 30% increase, and profit of 452.3 billion NTD (approximately 105 billion RMB), a year-on-year increase of 39.1% [1] - TSMC dominates over 90% of the global advanced chip market, allowing it to raise prices without significant competition from other manufacturers [3] - Advanced processes such as 3nm, 5nm, and 7nm contribute 74% of TSMC's revenue, while mature processes above 28nm account for only 12% [3][4] Group 2 - Competing companies like UMC are pushing for at least a 15% price reduction from upstream suppliers due to intense competition in mature manufacturing processes [5] - Other companies in the industry, such as World Advanced, are also seeking price reductions from suppliers to maintain their profit margins [5] - The entire chip manufacturing industry is seeing profits concentrated among advanced process manufacturers, while those in mature processes face fierce competition and price wars, leading to reduced profitability [7]

Core Viewpoint - The European Court of Auditors (ECA) report indicates that China has become the largest source of mature chip imports for the EU, with the EU's dependency on China reaching a "high-risk" level due to U.S. semiconductor technology export controls [1] Group 1: Market Dependency and Goals - The EU aims to capture 20% of the global chip market by 2030, but currently, it is far from this target [1] - Approximately one-third of the EU's mature chip imports come from China, highlighting the significant reliance on Chinese sources [3] Group 2: Industry Competitiveness - Despite having competitive companies like Infineon in Germany, NXP in the Netherlands, and STMicroelectronics, these firms primarily serve the automotive sector and cannot meet the growing demand within the EU [2][3] - The ECA's 2024 survey reveals a semiconductor trade deficit of €9.8 billion between the EU and China, which may widen as the demand for mature chips, crucial for green and energy-efficient technologies, continues to rise [3]

Group 1 - NXP Semiconductors announced the appointment of a new CEO and warned of a "very uncertain environment" due to tariffs [1] - The company's Q1 revenue decreased by 9% year-on-year to $2.84 billion, with adjusted earnings per share of $2.64, slightly above analyst expectations [1] - The new CEO, Rafael Sotomayor, will take over on October 28, succeeding Kurt Sievers, who is retiring for personal reasons [1] Group 2 - NXP forecasts Q2 revenue to decline to between $2.8 billion and $3 billion, with the midpoint exceeding analyst expectations [1] - The company’s stock price fell over 8% in after-hours trading following the earnings report [1] - The semiconductor industry, including NXP, STMicroelectronics, and Infineon, is facing weak demand for mature chips used in electric vehicles and smartphones [1][2] Group 3 - Despite signs of recovery in the industry, tariffs imposed by the Trump administration may cause further turmoil [2] - NXP maintains a "cautiously optimistic" outlook despite the challenging market conditions influenced by tariffs [2] - The company is actively investing in acquisitions, including a $625 million deal for TTTech Auto and a $307 million acquisition of Kinara [2]

Core Viewpoint - The potential merger between GlobalFoundries and UMC aims to create a larger American company to enhance chip production capabilities amid increasing competition from China in the mature chip sector [1][2][4]. Group 1: Merger Details - GlobalFoundries and UMC are exploring a merger to establish a company with a broader production footprint across Asia, the U.S., and Europe [1]. - The merger is intended to ensure the U.S. has access to mature chips, especially given the geopolitical tensions between China and Taiwan [1][4]. - The combined entity could potentially rival TSMC, which currently holds significant market shares in both mature and advanced chip markets [1][4]. Group 2: Regulatory and Government Involvement - U.S. government efforts have historically encouraged Taiwanese firms to increase chip production in the U.S., including urging UMC to build or acquire facilities [2]. - The potential merger may face regulatory scrutiny from both Taiwanese and Chinese authorities, as seen in previous cases like Intel's failed acquisition of Tower Semiconductor [2][4]. - Concerns have been raised about the impact of TSMC's $100 billion investment in the U.S. on Taiwan's semiconductor industry [2]. Group 3: Market Context and Competition - Mature chips account for over 70% of global semiconductor demand, crucial for various sectors including infrastructure and defense [4]. - UMC, established in 1980, is smaller than TSMC and employs around 20,000 people globally, serving major clients like Qualcomm and Nvidia [4][5]. - GlobalFoundries reported revenue of $6.75 billion with a net loss of $265 million, while UMC had revenue of NT$232.3 billion (approximately $7.21 billion) and a profit of NT$47.2 billion [5]. Group 4: Strategic Moves - UMC is collaborating with Intel to develop 12nm chips for various applications, aiming to start production in the U.S. by 2027 [5]. - UMC is also diversifying its manufacturing capabilities by expanding operations in Singapore [5]. - UMC's CFO stated that the company is not currently pursuing any merger deals and maintains good communication with all relevant governments, including the U.S. [6][7].