人工智能技术的颠覆性潜力正在迅速传导至信贷市场，引发美国杠杆贷款市场的剧烈调整，并对规模庞 大的担保贷款凭证（CLO）市场构成系统性威胁。 随着对传统商业模式受损的担忧加剧，美国杠杆贷款市场刚刚经历了三年多来最严重的单月抛售。以软 件和服务企业为代表的借款人首当其冲，大量债务迅速跌入困境区间。 据摩根大通警告，高达上千亿美元的CLO底层资产正直接面临人工智能繁荣带来的颠覆风险。这场由 AI驱动的市场重估不仅推高了相关企业的风险溢价，更让高度依赖此类资产的信贷衍生品市场拉响警 报。 目前，这场风波已导致美国新贷款发行活动大幅萎缩。投资者愈发担忧，随着债务到期高峰的临近以及 市场预期的潜在重置，信贷市场可能面临进一步的抛售压力与流动性考验。 杠杆贷款市场的动荡正通过"铁索连环"般的结构化产品蔓延至CLO市场。据摩根大通策略师估计，在被 打包成美国CLO的杠杆贷款中，约有400亿至1500亿美元的资产可能会受到人工智能繁荣的颠覆性影 响。 此前，Anthropic PBC发布了功能强大的Claude聊天机器人，直接引发了对软件类贷款的急剧抛售。当 前，CLO管理人们正忙于梳理其投资组合，以评估哪些贷款对AI的影响最 ...

Dewi John LSEG Lipper欧洲区研究负责人 Luke Lu LSEG 信用研究与量化建模部门主管 Robin Marshall 富时罗素 全球投资研究部主管 Jharonne Martis LSEG 消费者研究部门主管 Plamen Mitkov LSEG 全球住房抵押支持证券（RMBS）研究团队负责人 Irene Shi LSEG 全球住房抵押支持证券（RMBS）研究高级经理 Tajinder Dhillon CFA，资深经理，收益与股票研究部门 Detlef Glow LSEG Lipper欧洲区研究主管 宏观方面 尽管仍存在全球性风险，包括地缘政治风险、美国乃至全球范围内可能出现的全面经济衰退风险等， 但到2026年，这些风险的严重程度相对较低。而且在传统的估值指标中，很难找到信用和股票市场存 在泡沫的有力证据。自2025年4月关税激增以来，全球金融状况已持续稳步改善，各国央行也已表 明，他们无意将资产负债表规模缩减至金融危机前的水平，以降低金融稳定风险。通胀率仍高于一些 央行的目标值，但几乎没有证据表明会重回高通胀状态。因此，如果2026年失业率上升速度加快，美 联储仍有进一步放宽政策 ...

Core Viewpoint - The private credit industry, once distinct for its unique advantages, is increasingly resembling the public credit market, leading to a decline in return rates as banks recover and direct lending institutions invest heavily in retail tools [1][9]. Group 1: Industry Growth and Trends - The private credit industry's asset size has steadily grown to $2.4 trillion by 2024, with traditional closed-end funds raising $113 billion in the first half of 2025 [2]. - New funding sources, such as perpetual funds like Blackstone's BCRED, are rapidly gaining popularity, raising $48 billion in the first half of 2025, accounting for 40% of inflows into traditional institutional funds [2]. - The pursuit of retail funds is expected to continue, with estimates suggesting that individual wealth allocated to private credit could grow nearly fourfold to $1.5 trillion by 2029 [2]. Group 2: Challenges and Market Dynamics - A significant amount of raised capital, amounting to $543 billion, remains uninvested as of the end of 2024, indicating challenges in finding suitable investment opportunities [5]. - The additional premium that direct lending institutions charge over publicly issued bonds is under pressure, having halved in Europe to just over 1 percentage point, and sometimes even lower in the U.S. [8]. - Private credit is becoming a common financing tool in traditional acquisition markets, with borrowers increasingly leveraging competition between markets and lenders [9]. Group 3: Evolving Financing Structures - Direct lending institutions are adapting by offering more flexible loan structures, such as installment loans, to attract borrowers like private equity firms [8]. - Private credit managers are exploring new growth areas, with firms like Blue Owl becoming key players in financing AI assets, while Apollo utilizes its insurance arm to provide tailored financing to higher-rated companies [8]. - The lines between private and traditional credit are blurring, with retail fund growth potentially narrowing the gap and leading to a world of lower returns and higher liquidity [9].

Core Insights - The issuance of leveraged loan collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) by asset management firms has reached a record high this year, driven by strong investor demand for high-yield loans [1] - The issuance volume of CLOs in 2025 has reached $201.5 billion, surpassing the previous record of $201.2 billion set last year [1] - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to lower leveraged buyout costs and generate more loans, extending the current CLO issuance trend into 2026 [1]