本周，数十家跨国公司高管本周集体涌向华盛顿游说国会，试图阻止特朗普预算法案中一项可能重塑国 际资本流动格局的条款，警告这一措施将冲击数百万美国就业岗位。 6月9日，据报道，全球商业联盟主席Jonathan Samford透露，约70家公司的代表将于本周与国会议员 会面，第899条款将成为"核心议题"。 这一税收威胁已令该游说组织近200家在美外资企业感到不安， 其中包括壳牌、丰田、SAP和LVMH等巨头 。 数据显示这一担忧并非空穴来风： 外资银行在美国承销了70%以上的外国公司债务发行，占美元计价 债务发行总额的近三分之一 。 2023年，这些外资银行向美国公司放贷超过1.3万亿美元，其国际融资业务支撑了5.4万亿美元的外国直 接投资，创造了2700亿美元收入。 "希望第899条款不会被实施" 据悉， 这些外资企业在美国提供了840万个就业岗位，而第899条款的实施可能直接威胁到这一庞大的 就业基数 。 这场史无前例的游说攻势直指特朗普"大漂亮"税收法案中的第899条款——一个被外界视为"资本驱逐 令"的条文。该条款一旦获得国会批准，将允许美国对来自"税收政策惩罚性"国家的公司和投资者征收额 外税收。 税收 ...

Group 1 - Hong Hao, Chief Economist at Sire, believes that Hong Kong stocks will perform well in the second half of the year, particularly in the technology sector, which is more attractive than US tech stocks [1][3] - The US stock market is still considered overvalued, needing to drop by at least one-third to reach a reasonable valuation of around 15 times earnings, especially if fiscal policies contract rather than expand [1][2] - There is a potential for a trading rebound in the US stock market, but it is not indicative of a market reversal, and this trading window may last for a couple of weeks or longer [1] Group 2 - The US economic outlook is deteriorating rapidly, with the first quarter showing negative GDP growth due to inventory impacts, and similar trends are expected in the second quarter [2] - The dollar remains supported despite potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, as the interest rate differential between the US and China remains significant, influencing capital flows [2] - Chinese technology stocks, particularly those listed in Hong Kong, are seen as having higher value and safety margins due to their lower prices and expected policy support amid US-China competition [3]