智通财经APP获悉，财通证券发布研报称，百胜中国(09987)同店保持韧性增长，门店持续扩张，态势保 持向上。该行认为公司具备长期领先的规模、品牌影响力和行业管理能力、数字化能力。该行预计 2025-2027年公司归母净利润分别为9.2/9.91/10.57亿美元，对应PE分别为19X/17X/16X，维持"增持"评 级。 财通证券主要观点如下： 公司公布RGM3.0战略 公司在投资者日上公布RGM3.0战略，继续聚焦韧性、增长、护城河三大核心维度，秉持"创新与提 效"双轮驱动策略，采用"前端分层，后端聚合"的发展理念。即在前端通过多品牌组合与多元化产品 线，覆盖广泛消费场景与客群;于后端通过跨门店、跨地区的资源共享与整合提升效率，构建更强协同 效应。 加速门店网络扩张 截至3Q2025全国门店17514家，较2024年净新增门店1119家。公司公布未来五年门店的增长目标：稳步 推进2026年门店总数达2万家的目标;2028年门店总数增加至超过2.5万家;到2030年门店总数力争突破3万 家。在加盟店上，2025年肯德基与必胜客净新增门店中加盟店的占比分别达到40%-50%和20%-30%，公 司计划未来几年 ...

财通证券发布研报称，百胜中国(09987)同店保持韧性增长，门店持续扩张，态势保持向上。该行认为 公司具备长期领先的规模、品牌影响力和行业管理能力、数字化能力。该行预计2025-2027年公司归母 净利润分别为9.2/9.91/10.57亿美元，对应PE分别为19X/17X/16X，维持"增持"评级。 加速门店网络扩张 肯德基前九个月净新增992家门店，到2028年，公司计划门店总数将增加约三分之一至1.7万多家，并在 经营利润上力争突破人民币100亿元，成为国内首个跨过该里程碑的餐饮品牌。 财通证券主要观点如下： 公司公布RGM3.0战略 公司在投资者日上公布RGM3.0战略，继续聚焦韧性、增长、护城河三大核心维度，秉持"创新与提 效"双轮驱动策略，采用"前端分层，后端聚合"的发展理念。即在前端通过多品牌组合与多元化产品 线，覆盖广泛消费场景与客群;于后端通过跨门店、跨地区的资源共享与整合提升效率，构建更强协同 效应。 截至3Q2025全国门店17514家，较2024年净新增门店1119家。公司公布未来五年门店的增长目标：稳步 推进2026年门店总数达2万家的目标;2028年门店总数增加至超过2.5万家;到 ...

拉瓦萨（Lavazza）是意大利咖啡品牌，成立于1895年，创始人为Luigi Lavazza。2020年初，百胜中国 与Lavazza集团成立合资公司，百胜中国持有65%股份，共同在中国经营拉瓦萨咖啡门店和零售业务， 主打"纯正意大利咖啡体验"。2023年，拉瓦萨中国曾表示，未来几年将加速拓店，计划到2028年实现开 出超️1000家店的目标。 她解释到，因为咖啡的原材料，一个是咖啡豆，价格变化幅度很大；另外在中国市场，最贵的原材料是 奶。"所以我们当时就想，什么咖啡可以不加奶？有人提出，是不是可以加气泡？我觉得很好，唯一的 问题就是气泡咖啡是新鲜事物，市场可能不接受；但是没关系，中国很多年轻消费者，愿意尝试新事 物，所以我们就推出了苹果、凤梨……各种口味的气泡咖啡。" 屈翠容还提到，百胜旗下另一个咖啡品牌——Lavazza（拉瓦萨）也有气泡咖啡。但在她看来，肯德基 的气泡咖啡要更好。"因为两者的工艺不同，肯悦这边有专门的设备，气泡是打进去的，这就像喝啤 酒，有气和没气的感觉完全不一样。" 目前，百胜中国旗下目前运营的咖啡品牌主要包括肯悦咖啡（K COFFEE）和Lavazza拉瓦萨咖啡两个 主要品牌。 据 ...

编辑｜苗正卿 头图｜百胜中国 "33年开到1万家店，然后用不到10年再开2万家。"当百胜中国在深圳投资者日活动中勾勒出这张蓝图时，时间第一次被折叠得如此鲜明。 这家从1987年就进入中国、坐拥肯德基与必胜客两大王牌的老牌餐饮巨头，正在改写自己的节奏。它计划在2026年实现门店2万家的目标，随后用四年时间 冲击总数3万家的新高峰。这意味着，过去三十年完成的积累，要在未来短短几年内被重新刷新一遍。 出品｜虎嗅商业消费组 作者｜李佳琪 具体来看：肯德基计划2028年门店突破1.7万家，并剑指国内首个经营利润达百亿的餐饮品牌。必胜客则计划在2028年门店总数突破6000家，并在2029年实 现经营利润较2024年翻番，相当于"再造一个自己"。 肯必两棵大树之外，一片"竹林"也悄然生长：肯悦咖啡已突破1800家，预计2029年将超过5000家。主打轻食的KPRO（肯律轻食）一年内已在20多个城市开 出超100家。拉瓦萨咖啡也计划到2029年门店突破1000家。它们共同支撑起百胜中国眼中未来的生态。 这种被百胜称为"竹林效应"的布局，地上枝叶多元、各自迎风，但真正支撑它们向上生长的，却是土下繁茂的根系：近四十年扎根于中国 ...

以下文章来源于商业弧光 ，作者李佳琪 商业弧光 . 听风者，捕光人，最准点的商业节拍 出品｜虎嗅商业消费组 头图｜百胜中国 "33年开到1万家店，然后用不到10年再开2万家。"当百胜中国在深圳投资者日活动中勾勒出这张蓝图时，时间 第一次被折叠得如此鲜明。 这家从1987年就进入中国、坐拥肯德基与必胜客两大王牌的老牌餐饮巨头，正在改写自己的节奏。它计划在 2026年实现门店2万家的目标，随后用四年时间冲击总数3万家的新高峰。这意味着，过去三十年完成的积累， 要在未来短短几年内被重新刷新一遍。 具体来看：肯德基计划2028年门店突破1.7万家，并剑指国内首个经营利润达百亿的餐饮品牌。必胜客则计划在 2028年门店总数突破6000家，并在2029年实现经营利润较2024年翻番，相当于"再造一个自己"。 肯必两棵大树之外，一片"竹林"也悄然生长：肯悦咖啡已突破1800家，预计2029年将超过5000家。主打轻食的 KPRO（ 肯律轻食 ）一年内已在20多个城市开出超100家。拉瓦萨咖啡也计划到2029年门店突破1000家。它们 共同支撑起百胜中国眼中未来的生态。 这种被百胜称为"竹林效应"的布局，地上枝叶多元、各自迎 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yum China launched its "RGM 3.0" strategy on November 17, 2023, focusing on resilience, growth, and competitive advantage, driven by innovation and efficiency [1] Group 1: Growth Targets - The company aims for same-store sales index growth of 100-102 from 2026 to 2028, with system sales achieving mid to high single-digit CAGR [1] - Operating profit is targeted to achieve high single-digit CAGR, with KFC aiming for over 10 billion yuan in operating profit by 2028 and Pizza Hut planning to double its operating profit by 2029 compared to 2024 [1] - Diluted earnings per share and free cash flow per share are expected to achieve double-digit CAGR [1] - Capital expenditure is projected at an average of 600-700 million USD per year from 2026 to 2028, based on a cautious assumption of the macro consumption environment [1] Group 2: Store Expansion - The company plans to exceed 30,000 total stores by 2030, with specific targets of 20,000 by 2026 and over 25,000 by 2028 [2] - KFC aims to surpass 17,000 stores by 2028, while Pizza Hut plans to exceed 6,000 stores by the same year [2] Group 3: Franchise Model - The company plans to open over 3,000 new franchise stores from 2026 to 2028, with franchise stores accounting for 40%-50% of net new KFC and Pizza Hut stores [3] - The share of system sales from franchise operations is expected to rise from 9%-10% in 2025 to mid-double digits by 2028 [3] - Operating profit margin is projected to increase to at least 11.5% by 2028, with restaurant profit margins expected to be no less than 16.7% [3] Group 4: New Business Development - New businesses like KFC Coffee and KPRO are growing rapidly, with KFC Coffee expected to exceed 5,000 stores by 2029 [4] - Lavazza Coffee aims to reach 1,000 stores and achieve 60 million USD in retail sales by 2029 [4] - The company plans to return approximately 100% of free cash flow to shareholders starting in 2027, with expected annual shareholder returns of about 900-1,000 million USD in 2027 and 2028 [4] Group 5: Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 11.63 billion, 12.16 billion, and 12.76 billion USD, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.9%, 4.6%, and 4.9% respectively [4] - Adjusted net profit estimates for the same period are 910 million, 1.03 billion, and 1.13 billion USD, with growth rates of 0.0%, 12.8%, and 10.2% respectively [4] - The company maintains a target price of 423.2 HKD per share, corresponding to a 22x PE ratio for 2025, with a reasonable market capitalization target of 155.7 billion HKD [4]

Core Insights - Yum China plans to expand its store count significantly, aiming for over 30,000 stores by 2030, with a target of 20,000 by 2026 and 25,000 by 2028 [2][4] - The company expects to maintain a steady operating profit margin of 10.8% to 10.9% in 2025, with restaurant profit margins projected at approximately 16.2% to 16.3% [2] - Despite intense competition, Yum China sees substantial growth opportunities, currently serving only about one-third of Chinese consumers, with a goal to increase this to nearly half [2] Expansion Strategy - Yum China's RGM 3.0 strategy focuses on resilience, growth, and competitive advantage, emphasizing innovation and efficiency [3] - The company is diversifying its front-end operations while integrating resources across stores and brands to enhance synergy [3] - KFC plans to increase its store count by about one-third to over 17,000 by 2028, targeting more than 3,700 cities [4] Brand-Specific Goals - Pizza Hut aims to "rebuild" itself within five years, planning to add over 600 stores annually for the next three years, reaching over 6,000 stores by 2028 [4] - KFC is focusing on expanding into lower-tier cities with a small store model, while also densifying its presence in higher-tier cities [4] - Pizza Hut has introduced the WOW store model, targeting cost-effective offerings to cater to single diners, with a price range of 10 to 30 yuan [5] Coffee Business Expansion - KFC is also expanding its coffee business, with the Kenuo Coffee brand expected to exceed 5,000 stores by 2029 [6] - The "shoulder-to-shoulder" strategy allows Kenuo Coffee to share resources with KFC, significantly reducing costs and improving operational efficiency [6] - Lavazza Coffee plans to accelerate its expansion in first- and second-tier cities, aiming for over 1,000 stores by 2029 [7] Overall Market Positioning - Yum China's expansion is not just about increasing store numbers but also involves upgrading product offerings, store models, and operational efficiency [9] - The company is exploring consumer trends amid a highly competitive market, seeking to determine if larger and more diverse chain operations can provide better solutions [9]

Core Viewpoint - Yum China is signaling positive long-term growth amidst a complex environment, with a strategic upgrade to "RGM 3.0" focusing on resilience, growth, and competitive advantage [1][12] Group 1: Strategic Focus - The company emphasizes a dual-driven strategy of "innovation + efficiency" to enhance collaboration among stores, regions, and brands [1] - The RGM strategy has led to high-quality and steady growth since its initiation in 2021, with positive same-store sales and improved profit margins despite market challenges [1] - Management expresses strong confidence in achieving rapid growth and efficiency improvements over the next three years, with ambitious store expansion and sales growth targets [1] Group 2: Financial Goals and Shareholder Returns - Yum China plans to return approximately 100% of free cash flow to shareholders starting in 2027, with expected annual returns between $900 million and over $1 billion from 2027 to 2028 [2] - The company aims for system sales to achieve mid to high single-digit compound growth and operating profit to achieve high single-digit compound growth from 2026 to 2028 [1] Group 3: Brand and Product Expansion - The growth model is based on a "multi-brand, multi-product, multi-module" approach, enhancing user coverage and consumption scenarios [3] - KFC remains the core brand, with significant single product sales exceeding 4 billion yuan annually, supporting new business expansions [3] - The company plans to expand KFC stores to 17,000 by 2028 and achieve over 10 billion yuan in operating profit [3] Group 4: Operational Efficiency and Innovation - Pizza Hut has accelerated growth with a focus on value positioning, achieving a 17% increase in same-store transaction volume for three consecutive quarters [4] - The company is implementing a simplified operational model and product innovations to penetrate deeper into the market [4] - Lavazza Coffee is also expanding rapidly, with plans to reach 1,000 stores and $60 million in retail sales by 2029 [4] Group 5: Supply Chain and Technology - The company’s supply chain, digital technology, and talent development are crucial for supporting business growth and profitability [6][7] - Yum China is transitioning to an AI-driven operational system, enhancing efficiency in various operational aspects [6] - The company is expanding its supplier base and implementing direct procurement strategies to maintain cost advantages [6] Group 6: Market Potential and Industry Outlook - The Chinese restaurant market has significant growth potential, with a current chain penetration rate of about 20%, compared to over 50% in mature markets [12] - The company aims to increase its consumer service coverage from one-third to approximately half by 2028 [12] - The restaurant industry is entering a mild recovery phase, supported by policy incentives and improving consumer sentiment [8][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Yum China Holdings [2][7] Core Insights - Yum China held its 2025 Investor Day on November 17, launching the "RGM 3.0" strategy, focusing on resilience, growth, and competitive advantage, with innovation and efficiency as dual drivers [3][13] - The company targets over 30,000 stores by 2030, with specific store count goals of 20,000 by 2026 and 25,000+ by 2028 [4] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are USD 11.63 billion, USD 12.16 billion, and USD 12.76 billion, with year-over-year growth rates of 2.9%, 4.6%, and 4.9% respectively [7][14] Financial Projections - Adjusted net profits are expected to be USD 911 million in 2025, USD 1.03 billion in 2026, and USD 1.13 billion in 2027, with growth rates of 0.0%, 12.8%, and 10.2% respectively [7][14] - The company anticipates a gross profit margin (GPM) of 68.7% in 2025, increasing to 69.9% by 2027 [10][12] - The report projects a diluted EPS of USD 2.52 for 2025, increasing to USD 3.13 by 2027 [10][12] Expansion Strategy - Franchise empowerment is a core strategy, with plans to open over 3,000 new franchise stores from 2026 to 2028, with franchise stores making up 40%-50% of new openings for both KFC and Pizza Hut [4] - The company aims to enhance restaurant profitability, targeting an operating profit margin of at least 11.5% by 2028 [4] New Business Developments - New business initiatives, including KFC Coffee and KPRO, are expected to exceed initial growth expectations, with KFC Coffee projected to surpass 5,000 stores by 2029 [5] - The company plans to return approximately 100% of free cash flow to shareholders starting in 2027, with expected annual shareholder returns of USD 900 million to USD 1 billion [5]

Core Insights - Yum China Holdings, Inc. has set ambitious growth targets, aiming to reach 20,000 stores by 2026, over 25,000 by 2028, and over 30,000 by 2030 [1][3] - The company is focusing on expanding its store network, driving sales growth, and enhancing profitability through various strategic initiatives [1][3] Store Expansion Goals - The company plans to double its store count from 10,000 to 20,000 within six years, a significant acceleration compared to the previous 33 years to reach the first 10,000 [1] - KFC aims to increase its store count to over 17,000 by 2028, with a target operating profit exceeding RMB 10 billion [1] - Pizza Hut plans to add over 600 new stores annually for the next three years, targeting over 6,000 stores by 2028 [1] Emerging Business Models - New business models like KFC Coffee and KPRO are expected to exceed growth expectations, with KFC Coffee projected to surpass 5,000 locations by 2029 [2] - Pizza Hut's WOW model focuses on "everyday low prices," reducing single-store investment by nearly 50% and expanding into lower-tier cities [2] - Lavazza Coffee is set to expand significantly, aiming for over 1,000 stores and $60 million in retail sales by 2029 [2] Market Opportunities - The company sees significant opportunities in the Chinese market, currently serving about one-third of consumers, with a goal to increase this to about half [3] - The penetration rate of chain restaurants in China is only about 20%, compared to over 50% in developed countries like the U.S. [3] Strategic Framework - Yum China has introduced the RGM 3.0 strategy, focusing on resilience, growth, and competitive advantage, with an emphasis on innovation and efficiency [3][4] - The company is leveraging resource sharing and integration across its brands to create stronger synergies [4] Commitment to Shareholders - The company plans to return approximately 100% of its free cash flow to shareholders starting in 2027, after paying dividends to minority shareholders [4][5] - Yum China expresses confidence in achieving its growth targets and continuing to create value for shareholders [5]