机构：海通国际 研究员：胡佳璐/刘坤钰/李一腾 事件：百胜中国于11 月17 日在深圳举办2025 年投资者日，启动"RGM 3.0"战略，继续聚焦韧性、增 长、护城河三大核心维度，以"创新与提效"为双轮驱动，并践行"前端分层、后端聚合"的发展理念。 点评：2026-2028 年增长目标（以2025 年为基准年）：（1）同店销售额指数同比实现100-102；（2） 系统销售额实现中至高单位数CAGR；（3）经营利润实现高单位数CAGR，其中肯德基力争经营利润 在2028 年突破100 亿元，必胜客计划2029 年经营利润较2024年翻倍，实现"五年内再造一个必胜客"的 目标；（4）每股摊薄盈利和每股自由现金流均实现双位数CAGR。（5）资本开支：2026-2028 年单年 平均6-7 亿美元。上述目标基于宏观消费环境未出现明显改善的审慎假设。然而，管理层已观察到中国 消费者信心呈现初步回暖迹象。若未来宏观环境持续向好，我们认为百胜中国有望成为最早感知并最显 著受益于消费复苏的企业之一，当前目标亦具备可观的上行空间。 加盟赋能门店扩张，力争2030 年门店总数突破3 万家。（1）餐厅规模目标明确：公司预计 20 ...

在这样突飞猛进的发展速度中，管理层预计，百胜中国计划将2025年全年经营利润率维持在10.8%至 10.9%，餐厅利润率层面，百胜中国预计为约16.2%至16.3%，肯德基约为17.3%，必胜客约为12.7%，每 股自由现金流约为2.2美元至2.3美元。 同时，到2028年，公司经营利润率不低于11.5%，餐厅利润率层面，百胜中国不低于16.7%，肯德基不 低于17.3%，必胜客不低于14.5%。 虽然市场竞争极为激烈，但在百胜中国看来，餐饮市场仍有巨大机会。作为中国最大的餐饮集团，百胜 中国表示，目前仅服务了约1/3的中国消费者，未来希望能将该比例提升至约一半；中国连锁餐厅的渗 透率仍然较低，仅约20%，而在美国等发达国家，该数字超过50%。 而想要在如此内卷的市场中，获得进一步增长，百胜中国也开始从经营提效，进入店型、产品、品牌等 多维度的开拓阶段。此次投资者日上，百胜中国公布了RGM 3.0战略，继续聚焦韧性、增长、护城河三 大核心维度，并秉持"创新与提效"双轮驱动策略，采用"前端分层，后端聚合"的发展理念。 百胜中国首席执行官屈翠容表示，与过去专注于提升单店效率不同，随着百胜中国前端业务的多元化， 后 ...

11月17日，中国餐饮龙头百胜中国（YUMC.US/9987.HK）在深圳举办了2025年投资者日活动，在当前 复杂环境下向市场传递了积极的长期增长信号。 活动上，百胜中国首席执行官屈翠容宣布将未来战略升级至"RGM 3.0"，继续聚焦韧性（Resilience）、 增长（Growth）、护城河（Moat）三大核心维度，秉持"创新＋提效"的双轮驱动策略，通过"前端分 层、后端聚合"的发展理念强化门店、区域与品牌间的协同效应，进一步夯实公司的综合竞争力。 自2021年RGM战略启动以来，百胜中国在行业周期波动中依旧实现了高质量稳健发展。无论是门店扩 张提速的同时维持同店销售正增长，还是在促销高度内卷的环境下依旧推动利润率稳步提升，均充分验 证了RGM战略的经营成效。 随着公司迈入3.0阶段，战略节奏也从"稳增长"推进至"快增长+提效益"，管理层对未来三年在门店扩 张、销售增长和盈利提升方面均展现出强烈信心和进取姿态。 根据公司披露的2026年至2028年财务目标，系统销售额预计实现中至高单位数复合增长、经营利润实现 高单位数复合增长；2028年门店总数增加至超过2.5万家，到2030年门店总数力争突破3万家。 ...

研究报告 Research Report 18 Nov 2025 百胜中国-S Yum China Holdings (9987 HK) 2025 投资者日：创新与提效双轮驱动，目标 2030 年门店超 3 万家 2025 Investor Day: Driving Growth Through Innovation and Efficiency, Targeting Over 30000 Stores by 2030 [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$361.00 目标价 HK$423.20 HTI ESG 4.7-4.6-4.0 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$129.69bn / US$16.69bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$29.51mn 发行股票数目 361.42mn 自由流通股 (%) 96% 1 年股价最高最低值 HK$ ...

Core Insights - Yum China Holdings, Inc. has set ambitious growth targets, aiming to reach 20,000 stores by 2026, over 25,000 by 2028, and over 30,000 by 2030 [1][3] - The company is focusing on expanding its store network, driving sales growth, and enhancing profitability through various strategic initiatives [1][3] Store Expansion Goals - The company plans to double its store count from 10,000 to 20,000 within six years, a significant acceleration compared to the previous 33 years to reach the first 10,000 [1] - KFC aims to increase its store count to over 17,000 by 2028, with a target operating profit exceeding RMB 10 billion [1] - Pizza Hut plans to add over 600 new stores annually for the next three years, targeting over 6,000 stores by 2028 [1] Emerging Business Models - New business models like KFC Coffee and KPRO are expected to exceed growth expectations, with KFC Coffee projected to surpass 5,000 locations by 2029 [2] - Pizza Hut's WOW model focuses on "everyday low prices," reducing single-store investment by nearly 50% and expanding into lower-tier cities [2] - Lavazza Coffee is set to expand significantly, aiming for over 1,000 stores and $60 million in retail sales by 2029 [2] Market Opportunities - The company sees significant opportunities in the Chinese market, currently serving about one-third of consumers, with a goal to increase this to about half [3] - The penetration rate of chain restaurants in China is only about 20%, compared to over 50% in developed countries like the U.S. [3] Strategic Framework - Yum China has introduced the RGM 3.0 strategy, focusing on resilience, growth, and competitive advantage, with an emphasis on innovation and efficiency [3][4] - The company is leveraging resource sharing and integration across its brands to create stronger synergies [4] Commitment to Shareholders - The company plans to return approximately 100% of its free cash flow to shareholders starting in 2027, after paying dividends to minority shareholders [4][5] - Yum China expresses confidence in achieving its growth targets and continuing to create value for shareholders [5]

Core Insights - Yum China aims to achieve over 10 billion RMB in operating profit for KFC by 2028 and plans to double Pizza Hut's operating profit by 2029 compared to 2024 [1] Expansion Goals - The company targets a total of 20,000 stores by 2026, over 25,000 by 2028, and aims to exceed 30,000 by 2030 [1] - KFC plans to increase its store count by approximately one-third to over 17,000 by 2028 [1] - Pizza Hut aims to add over 600 new stores annually for the next three years, reaching over 6,000 stores by 2028 [1] Emerging Businesses - KFC's coffee brand, Kenuo Coffee, has surpassed 1,800 locations and is expected to exceed 5,000 by 2029 [2] - KPRO, focusing on light meals, opened over 100 stores in more than 20 cities within a year and aims for a thousand-store scale in five years [2] - Pizza Hut's WOW model has reduced single-store investment by nearly 50% and is expanding rapidly in lower-tier cities [2] Market Opportunities - Yum China sees early signs of recovery in consumer sentiment, with increased foot traffic and effective marketing [3] - The company currently serves about one-third of Chinese consumers and aims to increase this to about half [3] - The penetration rate of chain restaurants in China is around 20%, significantly lower than over 50% in developed countries like the U.S. [3] Strategic Focus - The company has introduced the RGM 3.0 strategy, emphasizing resilience, growth, and competitive advantage [3] - The strategy incorporates a dual approach of "innovation and efficiency" and a development philosophy of "front-end layering and back-end aggregation" [3] Resource Integration - Yum China is enhancing synergy through resource sharing and integration across stores, regions, and brands [4] - The company compares its structure to a bamboo forest, with various brands supported by a robust underlying network developed over nearly 40 years [4] Shareholder Commitment - The company plans to return approximately 100% of its free cash flow to shareholders starting in 2027, after paying dividends to minority shareholders [5] - Yum China expresses confidence in achieving its growth targets and continuously creating value for shareholders [5]

Core Insights - Yum China is accelerating its store network expansion, aiming to double its store count to over 30,000 by 2030, with a commitment to return approximately 100% of free cash flow to shareholders starting in 2027 [1][11] Group 1: Strategic Initiatives - The RGM 3.0 strategy focuses on resilience, growth, and competitive advantage, driving significant operational transformation and reinforcing core competencies [1] - The company plans to leverage innovative store formats and a combination of direct and franchise operations to penetrate markets more deeply and rapidly [1] Group 2: KFC Growth Plans - KFC aims to increase its store count by approximately one-third to over 17,000 by 2028, with a projected operating profit exceeding RMB 10 billion [2] - The brand is expanding into over 2,000 untapped lower-tier cities while enhancing its presence in high-tier cities through flexible store models and accelerated franchise strategies [2] Group 3: Pizza Hut Development - Pizza Hut has completed a key transformation, achieving a 17% same-store sales growth for three consecutive quarters and is entering an accelerated growth phase [4] - The brand plans to add over 600 new stores annually for the next three years, targeting a total of over 6,000 stores by 2028 [4] Group 4: Lavazza Coffee Expansion - Lavazza Coffee is entering a new growth phase, with double-digit same-store sales growth and plans to open 1,000 stores by 2029, aiming for $60 million in retail sales [5][6] Group 5: Digital Strategy - Yum China has integrated AI technology into its operations since 2019 and is exploring generative AI to enhance customer experience and operational efficiency [7] Group 6: Supply Chain Management - The company boasts a world-class supply chain management system, having launched over 1,600 new or upgraded products in the past three years while maintaining competitive raw material costs [8] Group 7: Talent Strategy - The company emphasizes empowering restaurant managers (RGM) to focus on food safety, customer experience, and team building, which are critical for sustainable business growth [9] Group 8: Financial Goals - For 2025, Yum China targets an operating profit margin of 10.8% to 10.9% and aims for a diluted earnings per share growth in double digits from 2026 to 2028 [10][11] - By 2028, the company plans to exceed 25,000 stores and maintain a minimum operating profit margin of 11.5% [11]