晨报 煤焦 煤焦：铁水日产保持高位 盘面震荡运行 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 后期关注/风险因素：关注钢厂高炉开工变化、煤矿复产情况。 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址：北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-700-6700 www.zgfcc.com 成文时间： 2025 年 10 月 10 日 逻辑：节后首日，煤焦期价震荡反弹，尾盘收红。假期期间在下游补 库的带动下，焦炭完成首 ...

晨报 煤焦 煤焦：焦价提涨落地 盘面震荡运行 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 10 月 9 日 逻辑：国庆假日期间，煤焦市场整体稳中偏强运行，在下游补库的带 动下，焦炭在月初完成首轮提涨，捣固干熄焦上调幅度 55 元/吨，捣固湿 熄焦上调 50 元/吨。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 从基本面来看，焦炭首轮上涨落地后，焦企利润有所修复，多数焦企 保持正常生产节奏，产能利用率维持 75%左右。假期主产地市场运力稍有 影响，物流运输相对缓慢，但整体看，焦炭出货有序，并未出现阻滞现象。 钢厂开工保持相对高位，日均铁水产量维持 242 万吨左右，支撑原料需求。 炼焦煤市场总体较为稳定，存在个别矿点价格高位回调。数据显示， 当前煤矿端库存压力并不明显，支撑价格相对坚挺。进口煤消息 ...

Core Viewpoint - The coke futures market has experienced a significant decline, with the main contract dropping to 1669.5 yuan/ton, reflecting a decrease of 2.82% [1] Industry Analysis - On August 18, the China Coking Industry Association held a market analysis meeting, where participants discussed the current coke market situation, macroeconomic environment, and industry dynamics. They reached a consensus that the production restriction policies in Tangshan steel mills are clear, and the overall coking production restrictions in Hebei and Shandong are more extensive than those in steel mills [2] - In Shandong, prices for various types of coke are set to increase, with wet quenching coke rising by 50 yuan/ton, dry quenching coke by 55 yuan/ton, and top-loading coke by 75 yuan/ton, effective from August 19 [2] Production and Inventory - The current pig iron production stands at 2.4066 million tons, showing a slight increase of 0.34 million tons, indicating high levels of pig iron production and a lack of pressure on coal mine inventories, which are shifting towards downstream [3] Market Sentiment and Price Trends - According to Guotou Anxin Futures, the coke price is expected to fluctuate due to upcoming significant events and renewed production restriction expectations in East China. The seventh round of price increases for coke has improved profitability for coking enterprises, with daily production slightly increasing. Overall, coke inventory continues to decline, and traders show a good purchasing willingness [4] - Zhonghui Futures notes that while the seventh round of price increases for spot coke has begun, there may be future negotiations with steel mills. The profitability of coking enterprises has improved, and the supply-demand situation for coke remains relatively balanced, with stable production and inventory levels [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese coking industry is set to implement a price increase for various types of coke starting from July 31, aimed at alleviating operational difficulties and ensuring reasonable profit distribution within the industry [1] Group 1: Price Adjustments - The coking industry representatives have agreed to raise the price of solid wet quenching coke by 50 yuan per ton [1] - The price of solid dry quenching coke will be increased by 55 yuan per ton [1] - The price of top-loading coke will see an increase of 75 yuan per ton [1]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance issued a notice to guide long - term and stable investment of insurance funds and strengthen long - cycle assessment of state - owned commercial insurance companies, which helps improve the enthusiasm of insurance funds to invest in the A - share market [2] - In the second quarter, high - frequency data in multiple fields improved, with offline consumption heat index up 25.5%, offline service consumption index up 33.4%, and key project investment index up 25.7% [2] - The China Coking Industry Association decided to raise coke prices by 50 yuan per ton from July 15, with first - tier metallurgical coke up 50 yuan/ton, second - tier up 40 yuan/ton, and third - tier up 30 yuan/ton [2] - Vietnam's Ministry of Industry and Trade imposed anti - dumping duties ranging from 23.10% to 27.83% on hot - rolled coils of steel originating from China, effective from July 6 [2] Group 2 - Key sectors to focus on: urea, crude oil, PVC [4] - Night - time performance of commodity futures: non - metallic building materials up 2.85%, precious metals up 27.66%, oilseeds up 12.45%, coal, coke, steel and ore up 14.57%, energy up 3.06%, chemicals up 12.72%, grains up 1.23%, agricultural and sideline products up 2.86%, non - ferrous metals up 19.64%, soft commodities up 2.95% [4][5] Group 3 - Performance of major asset classes: The Shanghai Composite Index had a daily increase of 0.01%, a monthly increase of 1.91%, and an annual increase of 4.73%; the SSE 50 decreased by 0.01%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.12%, and the CSI 500 increased by 0.74% [7] - In the fixed - income category, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures decreased by 0.02%, the 5 - year decreased by 0.01%, and the 2 - year decreased by 0.00% [7] - In the commodity category, the CRB Commodity Index increased by 1.05%, WTI crude oil increased by 3.15%, London spot gold increased by 0.95%, and LME copper decreased by 0.39% [7]

Core Viewpoint - The current coking coal market requires an immediate price increase to alleviate operational difficulties and ensure reasonable profit distribution within the industry [1] Industry Analysis - A market analysis meeting was held on July 11, attended by representatives from key coking enterprises across various provinces including Shanxi, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, Shaanxi, Ningxia, Jiangxi, and Yunnan [1] - Participants analyzed the supply-demand dynamics and price trends of the coking coal market in the context of the macroeconomic environment [1] Price Adjustment Decisions - From July 14, the following price adjustments will be implemented for steel mill customers: - An increase of 70 yuan/ton for damp coke - An increase of 75 yuan/ton for dry coke - An increase of 95 yuan/ton for top-loaded coke [1] - Price increases for trading customers will take effect from July 11 [1] Business Model - The industry will continue to adhere to a prepayment commercial model, avoiding credit sales and maintaining the right to weigh and test measurements [1]