我们公司有个做外贸的同事小刘，最近经常跟我们聊起一个有趣的现象。他说这两年跟欧洲客户做生 意，越来越多的合同开始用欧元结算，以前清一色都是美元。小刘说，欧洲那边的采购商现在更愿意用 欧元付款，说是汇率风险小一些，手续费也便宜。 这个现象其实反映了一个更大的趋势。根据环球银行金融电信协会SWIFT发布的最新数据，2024年11月 全球货币支付占比出现了显著变化。欧元的占比已经上升到37.79%，而美元虽然仍居首位，但占比下 降至38.85%。这个数字让很多人感到意外，美元和欧元之间的差距已经缩小到只有1个百分点左右。 4.61%这个数字背后有着实实在在的支撑。我们了解到，2024年前11个月，人民币跨境支付金额累计超 过52万亿元，同比增长24.1%。这个增长速度在主要国际货币中是很突出的。 人民币占比提升的原因也很明确。中国作为世界第二大经济体和第一大货物贸易国，与越来越多国家的 贸易往来中开始使用人民币结算。我们身边就有这样的例子，小区里开贸易公司的张老板，现在跟东南 亚、中东的客户做生意，有30%左右都是用人民币结算的。 张老板告诉我们，用人民币结算有几个好处。第1个是汇率风险小，因为他的成本本来就是人民 ...

Core Insights - The European Central Bank's digital euro project has entered a critical phase after years of research, aiming to create an electronic cash version for all eurozone citizens [1] - The project is currently focused on technical aspects, with a pilot expected by mid-2027, contingent on legislative approval in 2026 [1] Group 1 - The project represents a significant qualitative leap, with two years of preparatory work leading to the current stage [1] - The implementation of the digital euro requires consideration of technical development, large-scale testing, and participation from banks, payment service providers, and merchants [2] - Following regulatory approval, the entire operational process may take an additional two to three years to complete [2] Group 2 - The rising importance of stablecoins in the financial system poses risks, as a market run could threaten European financial stability, macroeconomic conditions, and inflation, potentially necessitating intervention from the ECB [2]

【环球网科技综合报道】据路透社报道，意大利银行业协会（ABI）总经理马可·埃利奥·罗蒂尼在佛罗 伦萨的一场新闻发布会上表示，意大利银行业支持欧洲央行的数字欧元项目，认为其体现了"数字主 权"理念。不过，由于项目成本较高，银行业希望所需投资能够分阶段推进。 上月底，欧洲央行管理委员会已决定推进数字欧元项目进入下一阶段。欧洲央行表示，若能及时获得立 法机构批准，其数字货币试点项目有望在2027年启动，并于2029年正式推出。 然而，该计划也面临反对声音。据《金融时报》报道，德国银行业委员会——德国最大的银行业组织 ——以及欧洲议会保守派议员费尔南多·纳瓦雷特均对此表示反对。纳瓦雷特在一份近期发布的报告中 指出，数字欧元不应用于金融机构、支付服务提供商等市场参与者之间的批发支付。他认为，目前已有 中央银行货币结算系统，且欧元体系正在探索利用其他技术处理此类支付，因此无需再引入数字欧元用 于该领域。 ...

IT之家 11 月 9 日消息，据路透社今日报道，意大利银行协会（ABI）的一位高级官员表示，意大利银行支持欧洲中央银行的数字欧元 项目，但希望实施该项目所需的投资能分阶段进行，因为成本较高。 IT之家注意到，欧洲中央银行一直在研究单一货币的数字版本，以加强欧元区的货币主权，但立法进程缓慢，因为一些法国和德国银 行尤其反对该项目。他们认为，该项目可能会导致数百万欧洲人使用欧洲中央银行的在线钱包进行日常支付，从而减少他们的银行存 款。 图源：Pexels 在完成为期两年的准备期后，在 10 月 29 日至 30 日在意大利佛罗伦萨举行的会议上，欧洲央行管理委员会决定将数字欧元项目推进 到下一阶段。数字欧元项目预计在 2027 年进行试点阶段后，预计将于 2029 年推出，具体取决于预计 2026 年通过的欧盟立法。 ...

Core Points - The European Central Bank (ECB) is advancing its plan to introduce a digital euro by 2029, providing an electronic alternative to cash and private payment systems in the eurozone [1] - If legislation is completed and effective by 2026, a pilot project for the digital euro could start in 2027, with the official launch planned for 2029 [1] - The ECB has been developing digital payment methods for years, aiming to compete with private payment systems like PayPal, Mastercard, and Visa [1] - The digital euro will be stored in digital wallets and allow for fee-free euro payments via smartphones or bank cards within seconds [1] - The estimated development cost for the project is projected to reach €1.3 billion by 2029, with skepticism from various banks and savings institutions regarding the digital euro initiative [1]

Core Insights - The rise of stablecoins like USDT and USDC has created a significant impact on the global financial system, with USDT reserves exceeding 150 billion and USDC holding 99.5% of its reserves in U.S. Treasury bonds, surpassing the foreign exchange reserves of over 70% of countries worldwide [2][4][21] - Stablecoins are seen as a modern iteration of the "narrow bank" concept, which aims to separate money creation from credit risk, but they operate outside traditional banking regulations, creating both opportunities and risks for the financial system [6][20] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The total market capitalization of stablecoins has reached 276.9 billion, with a significant portion locked in short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, leading to a liquidity crisis in traditional banking [4][7] - Stablecoins are effectively siphoning off deposits from commercial banks, with an estimated 1.2 trillion in deposits withdrawn, impacting banks' ability to lend and manage liquidity [23][25] Group 2: Regulatory Challenges - The U.S. is moving towards stricter regulations for stablecoins, such as the GENIUS Act, which mandates 100% cash or short-term Treasury bond reserves, potentially tying stablecoins more closely to U.S. debt markets [21][25] - Regulatory approaches vary globally, with Hong Kong allowing multi-currency stablecoin issuance, creating an arbitrage opportunity that could lead to increased risks in the global financial system [22] Group 3: Financial Stability Risks - The operational model of stablecoins, which requires backing every issued token with equivalent reserves, is leading to a "sterilization" of market liquidity, as these assets are often held in custodial accounts and not actively used in lending or repurchase agreements [10][12][13] - The concentration of stablecoin holdings in short-term Treasury bonds is distorting market structures, leading to historically low yield spreads between different maturities and creating potential liquidity crises in the bond market [18][20] Group 4: Future Outlook - The expansion of stablecoins is seen as both a reinforcement of U.S. dollar dominance and a catalyst for a more multipolar global currency system, with central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) emerging as alternatives that do not rely on U.S. Treasury bonds [25][29] - The rapid growth of stablecoins, projected to reach 3 trillion, contrasts with the slower adoption of CBDCs, highlighting a significant gap in the evolution of digital financial systems [26][28]

Core Insights - The European Central Bank (ECB) has successfully completed a two-year preparation phase for the digital euro, moving towards the next stage which includes technical readiness, market participation, and legislative support for the potential issuance of the digital euro by 2029 [1][2] Group 1: Digital Euro Development - The ECB's Governing Council made this decision following the successful completion of the digital euro preparation phase, which is set to begin in November 2023 [1] - The next phase will focus on developing the technical infrastructure for the digital euro, including initial system setup and pilot operations [1] - Collaboration with payment service providers, merchants, and consumers will be essential to refine the rulebook, conduct user research, and test the system through pilot activities [1] Group 2: Legislative and Pilot Project Timeline - If relevant regulations for the digital euro are passed by 2026, pilot projects and initial transactions could commence by mid-2027 [1] - The euro system anticipates being fully prepared for the potential issuance of the digital euro by 2029 [1] Group 3: Strategic Importance of Digital Euro - The ECB believes that the digital euro will uphold freedom of choice and privacy in Europe, while ensuring monetary sovereignty and economic security [1] - It is expected to foster innovation in the payment sector and enhance the competitiveness, resilience, and inclusiveness of the European payment system [1] Group 4: Nature of Digital Euro - The digital euro is a central bank digital currency (CBDC) directly backed by the ECB, representing a liability of the central bank [2] - Unlike bank deposits, which are a creditor relationship between depositors and banks, the digital euro does not rely on bank credit and does not require interbank transfers or banks as intermediaries [2] - The promotion of the digital euro aims to reduce dependence on multinational tech companies and secure the euro's position in the future digital economy [2]

Core Points - The European Central Bank (ECB) is preparing to accelerate its digital euro project, aiming for a formal launch in 2029, contingent on timely legal frameworks [1][2] - ECB officials will decide on continuing the foundational work for the digital euro at a meeting in Florence, following the end of the current two-year preparation phase [1] - ECB President Christine Lagarde and other officials emphasize the importance of this project for enhancing Europe's strategic autonomy in the current environment [1] Group 1 - The ECB's push for the digital euro is driven by concerns over the current retail payment market's heavy reliance on American companies like Visa, MasterCard, and PayPal [1] - There is urgency surrounding the digital euro due to fears that US-backed stablecoins could gain a foothold in Europe [1] - The ECB's two-year preparation phase was initiated in 2023, with hopes that necessary regulations for the digital currency could be established during this period [2] Group 2 - Political obstacles remain a significant challenge for the digital euro's implementation, with the European People's Party (EPP) advocating for private sector-led alternatives [2] - Despite these challenges, the pressure to break the legislative deadlock is increasing due to the risks associated with external dependencies in the payment sector [2] - ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone indicated that mid-2029 could be a reasonable estimate for the digital euro's launch, setting a clear benchmark for market expectations [2]

Core Viewpoint - Blockchain technology serves as the underlying infrastructure for stablecoins, and its standardization process directly impacts the future structure of the digital currency system [1] Group 1: Legislative Developments - Stablecoins are becoming a focal point for global financial regulation, with various countries, including the U.S. and EU, actively constructing regulatory frameworks to adapt to the digital age [2] - The emergence of stablecoins challenges traditional monetary systems and redefines the concepts of currency and monetary issuance [2] Group 2: Impact on the Dollar System - The traditional infrastructure supporting the dollar's dominance includes the SWIFT system, the U.S. banking system, and government credit guarantees, which allow the U.S. to maintain financial hegemony [3] - Stablecoins, particularly those pegged to the dollar, expand the use of the dollar globally, while also providing tools for de-dollarization, as seen in increasing use of local currencies in trade by countries like China and Russia [4] Group 3: Regulatory Strategies - The U.S. legislative strategy regarding stablecoins aims to maintain dollar hegemony by requiring issuers to be regulated financial institutions and primarily hold dollar-denominated assets [5][6] Group 4: Technical Standards and Power Dynamics - The standardization of blockchain technology is crucial for the future of the digital currency ecosystem, with major public chain platforms competing for dominance in the stablecoin space [7] - Different blockchain networks face interoperability challenges, leading to a fragmented state that limits the effectiveness of stablecoins as global payment tools [8] Group 5: Regulatory Divergence - There are fundamental differences in stablecoin regulatory philosophies among countries, reflecting varying views on financial innovation and monetary sovereignty [9] - The U.S. focuses on risk control and maintaining dollar dominance, while the EU emphasizes consumer protection and market integrity [9] Group 6: Cross-Border Regulatory Coordination - The global nature of stablecoins necessitates international coordination, but differing regulatory philosophies and geopolitical tensions complicate this process [11] Group 7: Balancing Innovation and Regulation - Finding a balance between encouraging financial innovation and preventing systemic risks is a common challenge for regulators [12] Group 8: Future of Digital Currency Landscape - The evolution of the global digital currency landscape will be influenced by technological advancements, regulatory policies, and geopolitical factors [13] Group 9: Strategic Opportunities and Challenges for China - China's digital yuan offers a strategic advantage in the digital currency space, but balancing financial stability with technological innovation remains a challenge [14] Group 10: Historical Opportunity to Reshape Financial Order - The legislative developments surrounding stablecoins represent a profound transformation of the financial order, redefining currency, issuance rights, and global payment systems [16]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintains key interest rates and outlines a clear path for reducing asset purchase programs, indicating a commitment to data-driven and flexible monetary policy to support economic stability in the Eurozone [1][2][7]. Interest Rate Policy - The ECB keeps the three key interest rates unchanged: deposit facility rate at 2.00%, main refinancing operations rate at 2.15%, and marginal lending facility rate at 2.40%, as current inflation levels align with medium-term targets [2]. - August inflation in the Eurozone slightly increased to 2.1%, with core inflation stable at 2.3%, indicating a controlled price environment [2]. Asset Purchase Program - The ECB will no longer reinvest the principal of maturing securities from the Asset Purchase Program (APP) and Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP), marking a transition from quantitative easing to normalized liquidity management [3]. - The average interest rate for new corporate loans fell to 3.5%, supporting the market conditions for the balance sheet reduction [3]. Economic Growth - The ECB raised its 2025 economic growth forecast by 0.3 percentage points to 1.2%, reflecting a view of short-term pressures but long-term resilience in the Eurozone economy [4]. - The labor market remains strong, with a stable unemployment rate of 6.2%, which is expected to support consumer spending [4]. Risk Assessment - The ECB assesses that growth risks are balanced, with both upward and downward factors at play, while inflation uncertainty remains high [5]. - Downside risks include potential impacts from trade relations and geopolitical tensions, while upside risks involve unexpected increases in defense and infrastructure spending [5]. Policy Coordination - The ECB emphasizes the need for coordinated fiscal and structural reforms to enhance long-term economic resilience, focusing on growth-friendly investments [6]. - The completion of the savings-investment union and banking union is highlighted as essential for financial stability [6]. Data Dependency - The ECB reiterates its commitment to a data-dependent approach for future monetary policy decisions, ensuring flexibility in response to economic changes [7]. - ECB President Lagarde stated that the committee is prepared to adjust all policy tools as necessary to maintain inflation stability around the 2% target [7].