美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔发表"鸽派"讲话后，加密货币市场集体上攻。8月22日晚间，以太坊价格飙升，带领加密货币市场集体走高。 Coinglass数据显示，过去24小时加密货币市场共有超16万人被爆仓，爆仓总金额为6.94亿美元。 以太坊价格飙升 再创历史新高 8月23日凌晨，以太坊强势拉升至4888.48美元，突破2021年11月初创下的历史最高价4878美元，再创历史新高。 鲍威尔：美联储对降息持开放态度 消息面上，8月22日，美联储主席鲍威尔在怀俄明州举行的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年度经济政策研讨会上表示，美联储可能需要调整政策立场。这一表态被 市场解读为降息信号。 鲍威尔在讲话中表示，今年以来，在经济政策全面变革的背景下，美国经济展现出韧性。就美联储的双重使命目标而言，劳动力市场仍接近就业最大化， 通货膨胀率虽仍略有上升，但已较疫情后高点大幅回落。与此同时，风险平衡似乎正在发生变化。 鲍威尔表示，通胀的上行风险已经减弱，而就业的下行风险正在上升。美联储的政策利率比一年前低了100个基点，失业率仍然很低，目前的情况允许美 联储在考虑调整政策立场时谨慎行事。在基准前景和风险平衡不断变化的背景下，美联储可能需要 ...

【导读】以太坊价格飙升，超16万人爆仓 中国基金报记者李智 美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔发表"鸽派"讲话后，加密货币市场集体上攻。8月22日晚间，以太坊价 格飙升，带领加密货币市场集体走高。 Coinglass数据显示，过去24小时加密货币市场共有超16万人被爆仓，爆仓总金额为6.94亿美元，其中多 单爆仓2.3亿美元，空单爆仓4.7亿美元。 | 1小时爆仓 | 多单爆仓 | 空单爆仓 | | --- | --- | --- | | $532.3万 | $283.2万 | $249万 | | 4小时爆仓 | 多单爆仓 | 空单爆仓 | | $4781.8万 | $1177.1万 | $3604.7万 | | 12小时爆仓 | 多单爆仓 | 空单爆仓 | | $5.3亿 | $9625.7万 | $4.3亿 | | 24小时爆仓 | 多单爆仓 | 空单爆仓 | | $6.9亿 | $2.3亿 | $4.7亿 | Coinglass数据显示，过去24小时加密货币市场共有超16万人被爆仓，爆仓总金额为6.94亿美元。 以太坊价格飙升 再创历史新高 8月23日凌晨，以太坊强势拉升至4888.48美元，突破2021年1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant surge following Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's dovish remarks, with Ethereum reaching a new all-time high of $4,888.48, surpassing its previous peak of $4,878 from November 2021 [2][4]. Market Performance - Ethereum's price increased by 13.31% in the last 24 hours and 7.30% over the past week, with a market capitalization of $580.19 billion and a trading volume of $76.08 billion [7]. - Other cryptocurrencies also saw gains, with Bitcoin, XRP, and BNB rising over 3% [6]. Liquidation Data - Over the past 24 hours, more than 160,000 traders were liquidated, resulting in a total liquidation amount of $694 million, with long positions accounting for $230 million and short positions for $470 million [8][10]. - The liquidation breakdown shows that in the last hour, $5.32 million was liquidated, while in the last 12 hours, the total reached $530 million [8]. Federal Reserve Remarks - Powell indicated that the Federal Reserve may need to adjust its policy stance, suggesting a potential for interest rate cuts, as inflation risks have diminished while employment risks have increased [10]. - The current policy rate is 100 basis points lower than a year ago, allowing for cautious adjustments in response to changing economic conditions [10]. Regulatory Developments - Following the U.S. regulations on crypto assets linked to the dollar, EU officials are reportedly seeking to expedite the launch of a euro-pegged stablecoin, potentially on Ethereum or Solana blockchains [11]. - Recent regulatory developments in the U.S. have made the Ethereum ecosystem more attractive, with banks expected to play a crucial role in the growth of Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency sector [11].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights concerns in Europe regarding the competitiveness of digital currencies following the passage of the US Genius Act, which regulates a $288 billion stablecoin market [1] - EU officials are accelerating the planning of the digital euro in response to the new US legislation [1] - There is a consideration among officials to run the digital euro on public blockchains like Ethereum or Solana, rather than the previously expected private blockchains, due to privacy concerns [1]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is concerned about the rise of dollar-pegged stablecoins, which threaten its control over monetary policy [1][2] - The global circulation of stablecoins has reached approximately $250 billion, with the majority pegged to the US dollar [1] - The ECB warns that widespread use of dollar stablecoins in the Eurozone could weaken its control over monetary conditions [1][2] Group 2 - Stablecoins are designed to bridge the gap between crypto assets and traditional financial systems, but their anonymity raises concerns about their use in illegal activities [2] - The ECB's warning reflects a growing global concern among central banks regarding the risks associated with stablecoins [2] - The support for stablecoins by the Trump administration may further solidify the dollar's dominance globally, leading to higher financing costs for Europe compared to the US [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the U.S. government's push for stablecoins as a strategic move to enhance innovation in digital finance, increase demand for U.S. Treasury bonds, and maintain the dollar's dominance in the global economy, particularly in the context of rising geopolitical risks and competition from other countries' digital currencies [1][6][12]. Group 1: Encouraging Innovation - The U.S. aims to solidify its leadership in technology and finance by establishing regulatory frameworks for stablecoins, which are seen as essential for the development of a new financial ecosystem [4][5]. - The introduction of stablecoin legislation is intended to foster innovation while protecting consumers and ensuring the U.S. remains competitive in the Web3 space [4][5]. Group 2: Increasing Demand for U.S. Treasury Bonds - There has been a significant decline in foreign ownership of U.S. Treasury bonds, dropping from 14.6% in 2011 to 4.9% by the end of 2024, raising concerns about "de-dollarization" [8][9]. - The U.S. government plans to link stablecoins with Treasury bonds to boost demand, with stablecoin issuers like Tether and Circle already holding substantial amounts of U.S. debt [10][11]. Group 3: Rebuilding Dollar Dominance - Emerging economies are seeking alternatives to the dollar, prompting U.S. officials to advocate for stablecoins as a means to counteract "de-dollarization" and promote "re-dollarization" [12][13]. - Stablecoins are viewed as a way to maintain the dollar's status as the global reserve currency, especially in high-inflation countries where residents are increasingly turning to dollar-pegged stablecoins for savings [13][14]. Group 4: Trump Family Interests and the Crypto Industry - The Trump family has significant financial ties to the crypto industry, with investments leading to substantial wealth increases, which influences the push for favorable policies towards stablecoins [15][16]. Group 5: Legislative Pathways - The U.S. Congress is advancing several key pieces of legislation aimed at establishing a regulatory framework for stablecoins, including the GENIUS Act, CLARITY Act, and Anti-CBDC Monitoring Act [18][20][21]. - These laws are designed to create a transparent and compliant environment for stablecoin issuance, ensuring that they are fully backed by high-quality liquid assets [19][22]. Group 6: Challenges and Global Implications - The article highlights the potential for stablecoins to become a "new offshore dollar," but also notes the risks associated with their cross-border use and the regulatory challenges posed by different jurisdictions [26][30]. - Concerns are raised about the financial vulnerabilities of stablecoins, particularly in the context of their connections to traditional banking systems and the potential for systemic risks during market downturns [31][32].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the international status of the euro and the potential for the renminbi (RMB) to increase its international role, particularly in light of recent U.S. tariff policies that have altered the dynamics of global financial markets [2][10][21]. Euro's International Role - The euro's international status has remained stable in recent years, with some progress in areas like "reverse Yankee" bonds due to U.S. tariff policies, which have prompted investors to seek alternative currencies [2][7]. - The "International Role Composite Index" introduced in the Lagarde report measures a currency's role in international bonds, cross-border deposits, global foreign exchange reserves, and international settlements [6]. - The euro's share in official foreign exchange reserves has remained around 20% since 2015, while the RMB's share was 2.2% in 2024, down approximately 0.4 percentage points from 2022 [6][17]. Impact of U.S. Policies - U.S. tariff policies have created opportunities for the euro to enhance its international role by breaking the traditional negative correlation between U.S. stocks and bonds, leading investors to diversify into other currencies [10][11]. - The report emphasizes that for the euro to capitalize on these opportunities, Europe must eliminate internal financial market fragmentation and establish a unified capital market [11] . Challenges from Digital Currencies - The rise of cryptocurrencies poses challenges to the international monetary system, with the U.S. actively developing policies around digital assets that could affect global financial stability [13][14]. - The report calls for Europe to accelerate the development of a digital euro and improve cross-border payment systems to strengthen the euro's international position [14]. Geopolitical Influences - Geopolitical factors are increasingly seen as significant in shaping the international monetary system, with a notable rise in gold's share in foreign exchange reserves attributed to concerns over geopolitical risks [16]. - The report indicates that military power is linked to a currency's international status, suggesting that the euro lags behind the dollar partly due to the latter's geopolitical security backing [17][18]. Recommendations for RMB - The article suggests that China should leverage its economic position to enhance the RMB's international role without compromising financial security, focusing on practical measures rather than a formal internationalization roadmap [20][21]. - It emphasizes the importance of maintaining economic growth to bolster the RMB's international status, as perceptions of slowing growth could diminish its appeal [21].

Core Viewpoint - ECB President Lagarde expressed caution regarding future monetary policy, emphasizing that while inflation targets have been met, the overall mission is not complete [1][2]. Inflation - The Eurozone's harmonized CPI for June showed a year-on-year increase of 2%, aligning with the ECB's target, indicating that inflation goals have been achieved [2][3]. Interest Rate Path - Lagarde stated that the interest rate cut cycle is nearing its end, but no pre-commitment to future rate changes will be made, with decisions to be based on data from each meeting [3][4]. - Current market expectations suggest a nearly 50% probability of another rate cut in September [3]. Neutral Interest Rate - Lagarde downplayed the significance of discussing the Eurozone's neutral interest rate, suggesting it may be higher than in the past and that current discussions are somewhat unrealistic given the existing economic conditions [4]. Dollar Status - Lagarde indicated that 2025 could be a pivotal year for the dollar's status as a global reserve currency, acknowledging existing fractures but noting that significant changes will take time [5][6]. - The ECB sees an opportunity for the euro to play a larger international role amid a weakening dollar and urges governments to advance reforms for deeper capital markets [5]. Digital Euro - Lagarde reiterated the importance of a digital euro, emphasizing that currency is a public good and warning against the privatization of money, which could undermine monetary policy and national sovereignty [7]. Challenges and Opportunities in Europe - Lagarde highlighted significant challenges facing Europe, such as reduced protection from the U.S. and declining cheap energy, but also noted these could present new opportunities [8]. - She expressed hope that 2025 will be a transformative year for lifestyle and business models in Europe, contingent on political action [8].

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank emphasizes the need to establish a more resilient financial system, which includes advancing the savings and investment union, completing the banking union, and introducing a digital euro to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy in a changing environment [1] Group 1 - The establishment of a more resilient financial system is a priority for the European Central Bank [1] - Advancing the savings and investment union is part of the strategy to improve financial resilience [1] - Completing the banking union is essential for enhancing the effectiveness of monetary policy [1] Group 2 - The introduction of a digital euro is a key component in adapting to a changing economic environment [1] - The focus on these initiatives aims to bolster the overall effectiveness of monetary policy [1]

Global Central Bank Dynamics - The core PCE price index rose by 2.7% year-on-year in May, slightly exceeding market expectations of 2.6%. Actual personal consumption expenditures fell by 0.3% month-on-month, marking the largest decline since the beginning of the year, while personal income decreased by 0.4%, the largest drop since 2021 [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated a cautious stance on interest rate cuts, emphasizing the strong U.S. economy and the uncertainties brought by high tariffs. He indicated that the Fed is not in a hurry to cut rates [2] - The Federal Reserve is considering a potential rate cut as early as July if inflation continues to decline or if the labor market weakens. The impact of tariffs on price pressures appears to be offset [2] - The Federal Reserve is planning to relax a key capital requirement that has been criticized by large banks, allowing them to hold more U.S. Treasury securities [3] European Central Bank and Other Central Banks - European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde called for the implementation of a digital euro, highlighting its importance for European financial sovereignty [4] - The Bank of England's Governor Bailey noted that uncertainties regarding global economic structural changes are affecting the foreign exchange market, leading investors to reconsider their positions [4] - The Bank of Japan's committee member expressed concerns about accelerating inflation, suggesting that the central bank may need to raise interest rates decisively despite uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies [4] Market Observations - The Japanese yen has depreciated against the U.S. dollar, primarily due to a more dovish reassessment of interest rate expectations by the Bank of Japan [7] - RBC Wealth Management forecasts that the Bank of England may cut rates by a total of 75 basis points by the end of 2025, contingent on further declines in inflation [7] - The Mexican central bank voted to lower the benchmark interest rate by 0.5 percentage points, indicating a potential slowdown in the pace of future rate cuts [6]