作者｜中国社会科学院金融研究所 《中国金融》编辑部 文章｜《中国金融》2026年第1期 01 "对等关税"引发全球金融市场巨震 2025年4月2日，以美国特朗普政府单边加征"对等关税"政策为标志，全球贸易政策发生结构性逆转，引 发金融市场持续剧烈震荡。世界贸易组织（WTO）数据显示，2024年10月至2025年10月，G20国家实施 的贸易限制性措施覆盖贸易额高达2.9万亿美元，首次超过贸易便利化措施，其中2.35万亿美元受限贸易 额与美国贸易政策直接相关。金融市场对此作出激烈反应，美国金融市场全年频繁上演"股债汇三杀"， 达18次之多。关税战与金融市场动荡相互强化，构成了2025年全球经济的核心风险图景。 ➤【点评】2025年全球贸易政策激变与金融市场动荡，并非周期性波动，而是全球化进程中的一次深刻 压力测试与结构性转折，其根源在于美国特朗普政府贸易政策的高度"政治化"与"武器化"不仅直接冲击 贸易伙伴，更通过供应链传导破坏了全球生产网络，迫使企业进行代价高昂的产业链重组。WTO的数 据意味着全球贸易政策范式的转变，从"基于规则的开放"转向"基于实力的博弈"，这严重动摇了第二次 世界大战后国际经贸秩序的基石 ...

Core Insights - The European Council's position paper clarifies that the digital euro will support both online and offline usage scenarios [1] Group 1 - The digital euro aims to enhance payment efficiency in various environments, catering to the needs of consumers and businesses alike [1] - The initiative reflects the EU's commitment to modernizing its financial infrastructure and adapting to digital trends [1] - The dual-use capability of the digital euro is expected to facilitate seamless transactions across different platforms [1]

欧洲央行周四宣布维持主要政策利率不变，并对欧元区经济前景表达了更为积极的看法，认为在全球贸 易冲击和地缘政治不确定性加剧的背景下，欧元区经济展现出一定韧性。决议公布后，欧洲央行行长拉 加德在新闻发布会上就经济、通胀、货币政策以及多项市场关注议题作出回应。 在谈及欧盟利用被冻结的俄罗斯资产支持乌克兰的讨论时，拉加德表示这一问题属于欧洲政治领导层和 外交政策范畴，并不在央行职权之内。她强调，欧洲央行的职责是确保任何政治层面的决定都符合欧盟 条约、尊重国际法，并且不会损害金融稳定，除此之外不作进一步评论。 关于数字欧元，拉加德表示欧洲央行仍在持续推进相关工作，但当前关键在于欧洲理事会和未来的欧洲 议会是否认可欧盟委员会提出的方案，并将其转化为立法。她指出，在数字化时代，央行货币需要以数 字形式继续充当金融体系的稳定锚，而数字欧元正是这一货币主权在数字时代的体现。 在全球环境方面，拉加德指出，尽管贸易紧张局势有所缓和，国际环境依然动荡，可能扰乱供应链、抑 制出口，并拖累消费和投资。全球金融市场情绪一旦恶化，可能导致融资条件收紧、风险偏好下降，从 而削弱经济增长。她同时指出，地缘政治风险，尤其是俄罗斯对乌克兰的战争，仍 ...

在欧洲央行连续第四次会议维持利率不变且上调今明后三年经济增长预期后，欧央行行长拉加德重申央行在利率政策方面处于"有利位置"。这一表态旨在平 衡市场对货币政策方向的预期。欧央行预计2026年和2027年通胀将略低于2%目标，2028年才能完全回归目标水平。 当地时间18日周四的欧央行会后新闻发布会上，拉加德强调，虽然央行的政策处于"有利位置"，但这"并不意味着我们是静止不变的"。欧洲央行管理委员会 的成员一致认为，"所有政策选项都应保留在台面上"，将继续坚持逐次会议、依据数据作决策的方式，央行没有预设任何利率路径。周四的利率决议获得全 体一致通过。 欧元区经济显示出韧性，第三季度增长0.3%。欧央行上调了多项增长和通胀预测，其中2026年通胀预期上调主要因服务业通胀下降速度预计将更为缓慢。 通胀前景的不确定性仍高于往常，这使得央行无法提供前瞻指引。 拉加德还就她继任者的问题发表评论，称欧央行对下任行长人选"没有任何偏好"。她表示，欧央行执行委员会委员Isabel Schnabel是众多优秀候选人之一， 并敦促法律专家，重新审视现任执委是否有资格竞选行长的问题。最终决定将由欧洲理事会作出。 欧元兑美元在欧洲央行公 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant shift in global currency payment proportions, with the euro's share rising to 37.79% and the dollar's share decreasing to 38.85%, indicating a narrowing gap between the two currencies [1][3][10] - The increase in euro usage is attributed to the recovery of the European economy and more stable monetary policies from the European Central Bank, while the dollar's decline is linked to fluctuations in U.S. interest rates [3][4] - The Chinese yuan has also seen growth, reaching a 4.61% share in global payments, up from less than 2% in 2020, driven by China's expanding trade relationships [4][7][10] Currency Payment Trends - The euro's payment share increased by nearly 6 percentage points over the past year, while the dollar's share dropped by over 3 percentage points, reflecting a rare speed of change in the international monetary system [1][3] - The total foreign trade of Germany, France, and Italy alone exceeded 4 trillion euros in 2024, showcasing the active internal trade within the EU [3][4] - The yuan's cross-border payment amount exceeded 52 trillion yuan in the first 11 months of 2024, marking a 24.1% year-on-year growth [4][5] Factors Influencing Currency Choices - The preference for euro payments among European traders is driven by lower exchange rate risks and transaction costs [1][3] - The rise of the yuan in international trade is supported by China's position as the world's second-largest economy and its increasing trade with various countries [4][5] - The development of multiple cross-border payment systems, such as CIPS and TARGET2, has facilitated the diversification of currency usage [8][10] Future Outlook - The trend towards currency diversification is expected to continue, with the euro potentially surpassing the dollar in certain months as the leading payment currency [10][11] - The yuan's share is anticipated to rise further, possibly challenging the positions of the pound and yen in the global payment landscape [10][11] - The ongoing changes in currency payment proportions reflect broader adjustments in the global economic landscape, indicating a move away from a dollar-centric system [7][10]

Core Insights - The European Central Bank's digital euro project has entered a critical phase after years of research, aiming to create an electronic cash version for all eurozone citizens [1] - The project is currently focused on technical aspects, with a pilot expected by mid-2027, contingent on legislative approval in 2026 [1] Group 1 - The project represents a significant qualitative leap, with two years of preparatory work leading to the current stage [1] - The implementation of the digital euro requires consideration of technical development, large-scale testing, and participation from banks, payment service providers, and merchants [2] - Following regulatory approval, the entire operational process may take an additional two to three years to complete [2] Group 2 - The rising importance of stablecoins in the financial system poses risks, as a market run could threaten European financial stability, macroeconomic conditions, and inflation, potentially necessitating intervention from the ECB [2]

Group 1 - The Italian banking sector supports the European Central Bank's digital euro project, emphasizing the concept of "digital sovereignty" [1] - The banking industry expresses concerns over the high costs associated with the project and advocates for a phased investment approach [1] - The European Central Bank's management board has decided to advance the digital euro project to the next stage, with a potential pilot launch in 2027 and a formal rollout in 2029, pending legislative approval [3] Group 2 - The digital euro project faces opposition from the German Banking Industry Committee and conservative members of the European Parliament, who argue against its use for wholesale payments between financial institutions and payment service providers [3] - Concerns have been raised regarding the necessity of the digital euro, as existing central bank currency settlement systems and alternative technologies are being explored for handling such payments [3]

Group 1 - The Italian Banking Association (ABI) supports the European Central Bank's (ECB) digital euro project but requests that the necessary investments be phased due to high costs [1] - The ECB is exploring a digital version of the euro to strengthen monetary sovereignty in the eurozone, but the legislative process is slow due to opposition from some banks in France and Germany [1] - These banks are concerned that the project could lead to millions of Europeans using the ECB's online wallet for daily payments, potentially reducing their bank deposits [1] Group 2 - After a two-year preparation period, the ECB's Governing Council decided to advance the digital euro project to the next phase during a meeting held in Florence, Italy, on October 29-30 [3] - The digital euro project is expected to enter a pilot phase in 2027, with a potential launch in 2029, contingent on EU legislation anticipated to pass in 2026 [3]

Core Points - The European Central Bank (ECB) is advancing its plan to introduce a digital euro by 2029, providing an electronic alternative to cash and private payment systems in the eurozone [1] - If legislation is completed and effective by 2026, a pilot project for the digital euro could start in 2027, with the official launch planned for 2029 [1] - The ECB has been developing digital payment methods for years, aiming to compete with private payment systems like PayPal, Mastercard, and Visa [1] - The digital euro will be stored in digital wallets and allow for fee-free euro payments via smartphones or bank cards within seconds [1] - The estimated development cost for the project is projected to reach €1.3 billion by 2029, with skepticism from various banks and savings institutions regarding the digital euro initiative [1]

Core Insights - The rise of stablecoins like USDT and USDC has created a significant impact on the global financial system, with USDT reserves exceeding 150 billion and USDC holding 99.5% of its reserves in U.S. Treasury bonds, surpassing the foreign exchange reserves of over 70% of countries worldwide [2][4][21] - Stablecoins are seen as a modern iteration of the "narrow bank" concept, which aims to separate money creation from credit risk, but they operate outside traditional banking regulations, creating both opportunities and risks for the financial system [6][20] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The total market capitalization of stablecoins has reached 276.9 billion, with a significant portion locked in short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, leading to a liquidity crisis in traditional banking [4][7] - Stablecoins are effectively siphoning off deposits from commercial banks, with an estimated 1.2 trillion in deposits withdrawn, impacting banks' ability to lend and manage liquidity [23][25] Group 2: Regulatory Challenges - The U.S. is moving towards stricter regulations for stablecoins, such as the GENIUS Act, which mandates 100% cash or short-term Treasury bond reserves, potentially tying stablecoins more closely to U.S. debt markets [21][25] - Regulatory approaches vary globally, with Hong Kong allowing multi-currency stablecoin issuance, creating an arbitrage opportunity that could lead to increased risks in the global financial system [22] Group 3: Financial Stability Risks - The operational model of stablecoins, which requires backing every issued token with equivalent reserves, is leading to a "sterilization" of market liquidity, as these assets are often held in custodial accounts and not actively used in lending or repurchase agreements [10][12][13] - The concentration of stablecoin holdings in short-term Treasury bonds is distorting market structures, leading to historically low yield spreads between different maturities and creating potential liquidity crises in the bond market [18][20] Group 4: Future Outlook - The expansion of stablecoins is seen as both a reinforcement of U.S. dollar dominance and a catalyst for a more multipolar global currency system, with central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) emerging as alternatives that do not rely on U.S. Treasury bonds [25][29] - The rapid growth of stablecoins, projected to reach 3 trillion, contrasts with the slower adoption of CBDCs, highlighting a significant gap in the evolution of digital financial systems [26][28]