点击上图▲立即收听 " 随着地缘政治博弈加剧，传统跨境支付基础设施容易被政治化、武器化， 全球希望改善跨境支付体系的呼声不断高涨，新兴支付基础设施和结算方式不断涌现。 " 文 / 巴九灵（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 今年下半年以来，人民币汇率保持强劲势头，直到8月28日创下9个月来新高。随着人民币愈发"值钱"，这个暑假，连出境游的热度都持续攀升。 数据显示，今年暑期出境游客足迹已覆盖3698个城市，同比增加590个，境外火车票和境外酒店套餐的预订量同比增长136%和185%。 游客的脚步越走越远，钱包的边界也在不断拓展。订酒店、刷门票、打车、买咖啡……哪里都要用到信用卡，可就在刷卡的那一刻，许多游客发现 了问题：明明账单写着100欧元，按当日汇率换算是840元人民币，为什么银行扣款却成了850元？ 游客出境旅游购物 差距不大，但钱总不会凭空消失，这背后，发生了什么？ 其实，每一次刷卡背后，都牵扯着一张人民币在全球范围的旅程：跨境清算、汇率转换、手续费分成等等。 随着全球跨境支付市场的狂飙，无数笔不大的"差距"，正在汇聚成一片千亿级的汪洋大海——数据显示，2024年，全球跨境支付市场规模达到 2125.5亿美元， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline of the US dollar's dominance, driven by massive national debt and rising inflation, leading to a global financial storm [1][3][8] Group 1: US National Debt and Economic Impact - The US government currently holds a staggering $36 trillion in national debt, with annual interest payments exceeding $1.3 trillion, surpassing the entire military budget [1] - The cost of issuing new debt has risen above 5.3%, exacerbating the debt situation as $9.2 trillion in debt is set to mature this year, necessitating refinancing [1][3] - Inflation remains persistent, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 2.7% in June, while factory orders have declined for three consecutive months, indicating economic pressure [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Dilemma - The Federal Reserve, once seen as a stabilizing force, is now caught in a difficult position due to high inflation and political pressure for interest rate cuts [3][5] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under threat, with public criticism from political figures and congressional scrutiny [5] Group 3: Global Shift in Asset Allocation - Countries are increasingly diversifying their assets away from the dollar, with the People's Bank of China increasing gold reserves for 18 consecutive months, and other nations like India and Saudi Arabia following suit [5] - The global central bank gold reserves have reached a historic high of 3600 tons, reflecting a shift towards tangible assets [5] Group 4: Alternatives to Dollar Transactions - International trade is seeking alternatives to the dollar, with significant transactions in the Chinese yuan and other currencies, such as 18% of Saudi oil exports to China being settled in yuan [5] - The use of stablecoins as a new form of dollar is limited, with 90% still requiring dollar backing, highlighting the ongoing reliance on the dollar [6] Group 5: Consequences of Sanctions - US sanctions have led to unintended consequences, with targeted countries forming alliances and exploring alternative currencies, such as Russia and Iran developing gold-backed cryptocurrencies [8] - The article suggests that the US's financial dominance is waning as the dollar depreciates, revealing the fragility of its hegemonic status [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights China's firm stance against U.S. trade coercion, emphasizing that it will not accept any deals that sacrifice its interests and will respond resolutely to U.S. actions [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Trade Strategy - The U.S. has imposed punitive tariffs ranging from 34% to 104% on Chinese goods, viewing China as its primary competitor and aiming to weaken its position in global supply chains [1][3]. - The U.S. is facing a significant debt crisis, with national debt exceeding $36 trillion and annual interest payments nearing $1 trillion, leading to a reliance on tariffs as a means to address its economic challenges [3]. - The U.S. trade strategy has resulted in increased inflation and a growing trade deficit, countering its intended economic benefits [3]. Group 2: International Reactions - Key allies like the UK and Japan have openly rejected U.S. pressure to decouple from China, indicating a miscalculation of U.S. influence [3][5]. - The article notes that the U.S. is using trade as a political tool, which undermines international cooperation and trust [3][5]. Group 3: China's Response and Adaptation - China has made significant advancements in overcoming technology blockades, having developed 21 out of 35 key technologies previously restricted by the U.S. [5]. - China's trade focus is shifting towards emerging markets in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, with its exports to the U.S. decreasing from 19% in 2017 to 14.6% in 2024 [5]. - The article mentions that the U.S. tariffs on Southeast Asian countries have inadvertently strengthened China's ties with ASEAN nations [5]. Group 4: Broader Implications - The trade war has led to rising inflation in the U.S., with a reported 3.5% year-on-year increase in CPI as of March, and declining consumer confidence [7]. - The potential for retaliatory tariffs could lead to a significant contraction in global trade, reminiscent of the Great Depression [7]. - The intertwining of trade and national security by the U.S. is increasing geopolitical tensions, particularly in regions like Southeast Asia and Europe [7].