Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities has raised the target price for New Oriental-S (09901) to HKD 45.4, citing potential catalysts on the horizon, including improved overseas business performance and increased profit margins [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecast and Target Price Adjustment - The non-GAAP earnings per share forecast for the fiscal years 2026 to 2027 has been increased by 4% and 5% respectively, primarily due to a smaller-than-expected decline in overseas business revenue and improved profit margins [1] - The target price for New Oriental's U.S. stock has been raised to USD 58.2, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 2: Potential Catalysts - Shareholder returns are expected to improve, considering the company holds USD 4.8 billion in cash and has strong free cash flow generation capabilities projected to reach USD 500 million to USD 700 million from fiscal years 2026 to 2028. The current dividend payout ratio is equivalent to 50% of net profit, with significant room for increase. A 100% payout ratio in fiscal year 2026 would yield a dividend yield of 4.5% [2] - Overseas business performance is anticipated to exceed expectations, with management guiding for a single-digit percentage decline in overseas revenue for the August quarter and fiscal year 2026. Non-U.S./U.K. consulting and related services, which account for about 60% of consulting revenue, are expected to grow, partially offsetting declines in the U.S. (double-digit decline) and U.K. (moderate decline) [2] - The K9 business is expected to accelerate again, despite a potential slowdown in revenue growth for the August quarter due to course scheduling adjustments and competition from local small institutions. Growth is expected to resume in the November quarter as these negative factors dissipate [2] - Profit margin resilience is evident, with cost control measures, improved margins in K12 and Dongfang Zhenxuan, and a reduction in losses from the cultural tourism business expected to offset pressure on overseas business profit margins, driving an expansion in non-GAAP operating profit margins for fiscal year 2026 [2]

Group 1 - The company participated in a collective reception day and mid-year performance briefing event organized by the Shanghai Listed Companies Association and Panoramic Network on September 19, 2023 [1] Group 2 - The chairman of the company emphasized the importance of AI in business development, focusing on three key areas: digital infrastructure, AI empowerment, and smart marketing [2] - The company has initiated an ultra-high-definition AI upgrade action in its smart broadcasting business, which started on September 16, 2023, in Shanghai [2] - In the cultural tourism sector, the company aims to enhance visitor experiences in the Lujiazui area and is set to open a new nature insect museum soon [2] - The retail business is undergoing transformation with the launch of the Baiyulan live streaming brand, collaborating with leading AI firms to implement digital human and multi-model applications in e-commerce [2] - The company is accelerating the development of its cloud gaming business, aiming to become a new highlight for revenue growth [2]

Core Insights - The tourism and scenic spots industry in A-shares has shown robust growth, with 22 listed companies achieving a total revenue of 35.423 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.34%, and a net profit of 1.673 billion yuan, up 7.19% [1] - The interest of foreign tourists in Chinese culture and natural scenery is rapidly increasing, presenting new growth opportunities for listed companies in the tourism and scenic spots sector [1] Industry Performance - During the "May Day" holiday, tourism activity surged, with Shanxi province receiving 5.4033 million domestic tourists, a 20.36% increase year-on-year [2] - The tourism and scenic spots industry continued its growth trend in Q1 2025, with 23 listed companies reporting a total revenue of 7.342 billion yuan, a 3.45% increase year-on-year [2] - Eleven companies reported positive revenue growth in Q1 2025, with three companies (Tianfu Culture Tourism, Xiangyuan Culture Tourism, and Jiuhua Tourism) achieving revenue growth exceeding 30% [3] Company Developments - Tianfu Culture Tourism is focusing on expanding its cultural tourism business, leveraging its subsidiary Chengdu Cultural Tourism Development Co., and enhancing its core competitiveness through various projects [4] - The company plans to strengthen its film and television business and explore innovative development paths in the integration of culture and tourism [4] Incoming Tourism Growth - The inbound tourism market is experiencing a surge, with a 61% year-on-year increase in inbound tourists in 2024, reaching 131.9 million [6] - The "May Day" holiday saw a 173% year-on-year increase in inbound travel orders, indicating a strong recovery in the tourism sector [6] - Policies aimed at improving the inbound tourism experience are expected to enhance the attractiveness of inbound tourism and stimulate domestic demand [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for New Oriental Education Technology (9901 HK) with a target price adjusted to HKD 46.00, indicating a potential upside of 24.7% from the current price of HKD 36.90 [1][4][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the study company is experiencing pressure in its study abroad business while maintaining stable performance in K12 education. The revenue for non-selective business is expected to grow by 22% year-on-year, with an adjusted operating profit margin declining by approximately 2.5 percentage points due to slower growth in study abroad-related services and investments in cultural tourism [2][8]. - The company plans to allocate more resources to youth study abroad services, and with cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures taking effect, there is still potential for long-term profit margin improvement [2][8]. Financial Forecast Adjustments - Revenue projections for FY25E have been slightly adjusted to USD 4,902 million, a decrease of 0.9% from previous estimates. For FY26E and FY27E, revenue is projected at USD 5,670 million and USD 6,420 million, reflecting decreases of 2.2% and 3.9% respectively [3][13]. - The adjusted operating profit for FY25E is forecasted at USD 503 million, with an operating profit margin of 10.3%. For FY26E and FY27E, the adjusted operating profit is expected to be USD 656 million and USD 771 million, with margins of 11.6% and 12.0% respectively [3][13]. - The adjusted net profit for FY25E is projected at USD 474 million, with a net profit margin of 9.7%. For FY26E and FY27E, net profit is expected to be USD 519 million and USD 620 million, with margins of 9.2% and 9.7% respectively [3][13]. Revenue Breakdown - The report provides a detailed breakdown of revenue sources, indicating that the study abroad consulting and preparation services are expected to generate USD 1,182 million in FY25E, while high school education is projected at USD 1,295 million. New business segments are expected to contribute USD 1,268 million [3][8][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for New Oriental Education Technology (9901 HK) with a target price adjusted to HKD 46.00, indicating a potential upside of 24.7% from the current price of HKD 36.90 [1][10][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the study company is experiencing pressure in its study abroad business while maintaining stable performance in K12 education. The revenue for non-selective business is expected to grow by 22% year-on-year, with an adjusted operating profit margin declining by approximately 2.5 percentage points due to slower growth in study abroad-related services and investments in cultural tourism [2][4][8]. - The company plans to allocate more resources to youth study abroad services, and with cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures taking effect, there is still potential for long-term profit margin improvement [2][3][4]. Financial Forecast Adjustments - Revenue projections for FY25E have been slightly adjusted to USD 4,902 million, a decrease of 0.9% from previous estimates. For FY26E and FY27E, revenue is projected at USD 5,670 million and USD 6,420 million, reflecting decreases of 2.2% and 3.9% respectively [3][13]. - The adjusted operating profit for FY25E is forecasted at USD 503 million, with an operating profit margin of 10.3%. For FY26E and FY27E, the adjusted operating profit is expected to be USD 656 million and USD 771 million, with margins of 11.6% and 12.0% respectively [3][13][14]. - The adjusted net profit for FY25E is projected at USD 474 million, with a net profit margin of 9.7%. For FY26E and FY27E, net profits are expected to be USD 519 million and USD 620 million, with margins of 9.2% and 9.7% respectively [3][13][14]. Market Performance - The stock has a 52-week high of HKD 70.90 and a low of HKD 35.40, with a market capitalization of HKD 60,342.20 million. The stock has seen a year-to-date decline of 24.62% [6][12].