Core Viewpoint - The announcement by Bull Group regarding the planned share reduction by its actual controller, Ruan Xueping, highlights the company's ongoing stock price decline and the potential impact on its governance structure and operational continuity [1][2]. Group 1: Share Reduction Plan - Ruan Xueping plans to reduce his holdings by up to 36.17 million shares, representing 2% of the company's total equity, between October 31, 2025, and January 30, 2026 [1]. - The estimated market value of the shares to be sold is approximately 1.626 billion yuan, based on the current share price of 44.95 yuan [1]. - Ruan Xueping's decision to reduce his stake is based on personal financial needs and is not expected to significantly impact the company's governance or ongoing operations [1]. Group 2: Historical Context - Ruan Xueping previously reduced his holdings by over 1.626 billion yuan through a block trade on July 5, 2023, selling 17.79 million shares, which also accounted for 2% of the total equity [3]. - As of the announcement date, Ruan Xueping holds 256 million shares, or 14.13% of the total equity, while he and his concerted parties collectively own 1.533 billion shares, representing 84.76% of the total equity [2]. Group 3: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Bull Group reported a revenue of 8.168 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.6% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.489 billion yuan, down 6.93% year-on-year [4]. - The company's net assets attributable to shareholders decreased by 7.34% year-on-year, totaling 14.701 billion yuan as of June 30, 2025 [4]. - The revenue from the electrical connection business fell by 5.37% to 3.662 billion yuan, while the smart electrical lighting business saw a 2.78% decline to 4.094 billion yuan [4]. Group 4: Cost Management - The company's operating costs for the first half of 2025 were 4.711 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.55% year-on-year, attributed to fluctuations in raw material prices and changes in product structure [4]. - Bull Group employs strategies such as centralized procurement of raw materials and futures hedging to mitigate the risks associated with price volatility in the raw materials market [4]. Group 5: New Business Development - Bull Group is expanding into new business areas, including charging guns/piles, energy storage, and smart home products, but acknowledges potential uncertainties in market trends and competition that could affect future growth [5].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement from Bull Group indicates that its actual controller, Ruan Xueping, plans to reduce his stake in the company through block trading, which may reflect personal financial needs rather than company performance issues [1][2] Group 1: Shareholding and Reduction Plan - Ruan Xueping holds 256 million shares, accounting for 14.13% of the total share capital, and together with related parties, they hold 84.76% of the total shares [2] - The planned reduction involves up to 36.17 million shares, representing 2% of the total share capital, with an estimated market value of approximately 1.626 billion yuan at the current share price [1][2] - The shares to be reduced are from pre-IPO holdings and capital reserve conversions, and the number may adjust based on corporate actions like dividends or stock splits [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2023, Bull Group reported revenue of 7.592 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.03%, and a net profit of 1.822 billion yuan, up 20.83% [3] - However, in the first half of 2025, revenue decreased to 8.168 billion yuan, down 2.60%, and net profit fell to 2.489 billion yuan, down 6.93% [3] - The decline in revenue was noted in the core business segments, with the electrical connection business down 5.37% and smart electrical lighting down 2.78% [3] Group 3: Cost Management and Raw Materials - The company reported a decrease in operating costs to 4.711 billion yuan, down 1.55%, attributed to fluctuations in raw material prices and changes in product structure [3] - Bull Group employs strategies like centralized procurement and futures hedging to mitigate risks associated with raw material price volatility [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the light industry manufacturing sector is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that the darkest period for the civil electrical engineering sector may have passed, with a focus on dividend value [2][3] - The domestic real estate market is stabilizing, leading to a narrowing decline in sector revenue [2][7] - Leading companies are demonstrating stronger resilience and are exploring new product and channel opportunities [2][9] Summary by Sections Civil Electrical Engineering Overview - In 2024, the sector faced a decline in revenue due to weakened real estate demand, particularly in Q2 and Q3, but began to stabilize in Q4 following the introduction of stimulus policies [2][7] - Bull Group's revenue grew by 7.3% in 2024 and 3.3% in Q1 2025, while its net profit increased by 10.4% and 4.9% respectively [2][9] - Opple Lighting experienced a revenue decline of 9.0% in 2024 and 5.9% in Q1 2025, but its net profit rose by 16.8% in Q1 2025 [2][10] Financial Performance - Gross margins are under pressure, with Bull Group and Opple Lighting's gross margins at 42.8% and 38.8% respectively in 2024, showing slight year-on-year changes [2][12] - The average payout ratio for key companies in the sector has been increasing, with Bull Group and Opple Lighting's payout ratios reaching 72.6% and 73.8% in 2024 [2][17] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on resilient core assets like Bull Group and high dividend yield companies like Opple Lighting [2][19]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the light industry manufacturing sector is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that the darkest period for the civil electrical engineering sector may have passed, with a focus on dividend value [7] - The income decline in the sector has narrowed as the real estate market stabilizes, particularly after the introduction of stimulus policies in late 2024 [7][9] - Leading companies in the sector exhibit stronger resilience and are exploring new product and channel opportunities [9][10] - Bull Group and Op Lighting have shown varying performance, with Bull Group achieving revenue growth of 7.3% and 3.3% year-on-year in 2024 and Q1 2025, respectively, while Op Lighting experienced a decline of 9.0% and 5.9% [9][10] - The gross profit margins of major companies are under pressure, with Bull Group and Op Lighting reporting margins of 41.0% and 36.3% in Q1 2025, respectively [12][13] - The dividend payout ratio is increasing, highlighting the sector's dividend value, with Bull Group and Op Lighting achieving payout ratios of 72.6% and 73.8% in 2024 [17] Summary by Sections Civil Electrical Engineering Overview - The civil electrical engineering sector is experiencing a stabilization in income as the real estate market shows signs of recovery following government stimulus measures [7][9] - Leading companies are leveraging their product and channel advantages to maintain performance above the industry average [9] Company Performance - Bull Group's revenue and net profit have shown positive growth despite market pressures, with a focus on innovation and new business areas [9][10] - Op Lighting is focusing on technological innovation and expanding its market presence, particularly in smart lighting solutions [10] Profitability and Margins - The overall profitability of the sector is under pressure, with many companies experiencing a decline in gross profit margins due to weakened demand and increased inventory costs [12][13] - The report highlights the need for companies to manage costs effectively while pursuing growth opportunities [12] Dividend Trends - The report emphasizes the increasing dividend payout ratios among leading companies, indicating a focus on returning value to shareholders [17]

前言 公司是中国民用电工龙头，转换器、墙开利基市场优势稳固，20- 23 年平均 ROE 约为 29%。近年来公司加速多元化，探索新能源 /无主灯/出海三大新兴业务，经营韧性凸显，提出"千亿公牛"目 标，本文重点解析新兴业务发展态势及后续 ROE 水平展望。 投资逻辑 参考丹纳赫经验，BBS 支撑多元化发展。公司致力于走远路，积 极学习丹纳赫等国际企业先进经验，探索出独有的公牛业务管理 体系（BBS），整合生活电器事业部。以利润率、市占率等为考核 目标，为公司实现长期战略和各业务线协同发展奠定基础。 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 61.00 67.00 73.00 79.00 85.00 91.00 240412 240712 241012 250112 人民币(元) 成交金额(百万元) 成交金额 公牛集团 沪深300 | 公司基本情况（人民币） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入(百万元) | 14, ...

前言 公司是中国民用电工龙头，转换器、墙开利基市场优势稳固，20- 23 年平均 ROE 约为 29%。近年来公司加速多元化，探索新能源 /无主灯/出海三大新兴业务，经营韧性凸显，提出"千亿公牛"目 标，本文重点解析新兴业务发展态势及后续 ROE 水平展望。 投资逻辑 参考丹纳赫经验，BBS 支撑多元化发展。公司致力于走远路，积 极学习丹纳赫等国际企业先进经验，探索出独有的公牛业务管理 体系（BBS），整合生活电器事业部。以利润率、市占率等为考核 目标，为公司实现长期战略和各业务线协同发展奠定基础。 后续 ROE 水平展望：利润率主导节奏，加杠杆大有可为。未来 ROE 取决于新兴业务利润率爬坡节奏，分情景测算预计中期 ROE 在 28-31%区间。若以分红/回购调整资本结构，则上行空间更大。 新能源业务：蓝海市场空间广阔，有望复制传统品类成功经验。公 司 21 年推出充电枪/桩及储能产品，顺应新能源大趋势且技术积 淀和品牌口碑可高效复用。公司产品、渠道布局顺利，推出高端"无 极"系列彰显产品力，C 端网店已超 2.2 万家，持续建立竞争力。 1H24 新能源业务收入 2.9 亿元，同增 120.2%，线上市占 ...