日百与服务收入支撑增长，新业务减亏路径清晰。零售业务结构优化，日百与3P生态贡献提升。分品 类来看，我们认为四季度带电品类预计收入同比下滑，主因家电、电脑数码受国补退坡影响。日百品类 受益于外卖流量协同及供应链优化，日百收入预计维持增长，商超、服装鞋帽等细分赛道表现强劲。佣 金与广告收入受益于3P 商家活跃度提升及营销投入加大，预计保持双位数增长，收入占比有望进一步 提升。新业务减亏路径清晰，外卖UE 持续改善。外卖业务通过补贴精细化、客单价提升或实现UE 改 善及季度亏损环比收窄，京喜与国际业务投入或小幅扩大，新业务总亏损可控。我们认为，随着外卖与 零售协同强化，外卖用户复购率提升，或带动核心零售活跃度。 机构：国联民生证券 研究员：孔蓉/曹睿 高基数与节日错期影响，25Q4 收入短期承压。从宏观环境来看，2025 年12 月份社会消费品零售总额同 比增速放缓至0.9%，主要系2024 年同期基数较高。从累计增速来看，2025 年社会消费品零售总额50.1 万亿元，比上年增长3.7%。 从线上消费来看，2025 年全国网上零售额159722 亿元，同比增长8.6%，其中实物商品网上零售额 130923 亿元 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for JD Group (9618.HK) [2][8] Core Views - The fourth quarter performance is expected to stabilize, with policy benefits and business optimization contributing to a recovery in 2026 [2][8] - Revenue for Q4 2025 is projected to decline by 0.7% year-on-year to 344.7 billion RMB, influenced by high base effects and the timing of the New Year festival [8] - The retail business structure is being optimized, with growth supported by daily necessities and service revenues, while new business losses are on a clear reduction path [8] Financial Forecasts - Projected revenues for JD Group from 2025 to 2027 are 1,301.5 billion RMB, 1,367.8 billion RMB, and 1,433.6 billion RMB, reflecting growth rates of 12.3%, 5.1%, and 4.8% respectively [7][8] - Adjusted net profits for the same period are expected to be 25.98 billion RMB, 28.05 billion RMB, and 31.32 billion RMB, with growth rates of -46%, 8%, and 12% respectively [7][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) based on adjusted net profits are forecasted to be 8.15 RMB, 8.80 RMB, and 9.83 RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7][8] Business Performance Insights - The online retail sector is expected to show resilience, with a projected growth of 8.6% year-on-year in online retail sales for 2025, while physical goods online retail sales are expected to grow by 5.2% [8] - The daily necessities category is anticipated to maintain double-digit growth, driven by strong performance in supermarkets, health, and fashion segments [8] - The report highlights that the new business segments are on a path to reduce losses, with improvements in user experience and customer retention in the food delivery service [8]

Core Viewpoint - The report from交银国际 indicates that JD Group is expected to achieve a 13% year-on-year increase in total revenue for Q3, reaching 294.62 billion RMB, aligning with market expectations. The adjusted net profit is projected to be 4.2 billion RMB, with a profit margin of 1.4%, which is an improvement compared to 5.1% in the same period last year and 2.1% in Q2 [1] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for JD Group in Q3 is anticipated to be 294.62 billion RMB, reflecting a 13% year-on-year growth [1] - The adjusted net profit is expected to be 4.2 billion RMB, corresponding to a profit margin of 1.4%, which is better than the previous year's 5.1% and Q2's 2.1% [1] Business Segment Performance - The retail business is projected to maintain steady growth, with a year-on-year increase of 10%, driven by double-digit growth in daily necessities, while the growth rate for electronics is expected to slow due to a high base from last year [1] - The order volume for the food delivery service in Q3 is expected to exceed that of Q2, with improvements in fulfillment efficiency and subsidy efficiency leading to a reduction in losses [1] - There is an expectation of increased cross-selling between the food delivery service and retail, with potential for more synergies during the e-commerce promotional period in Q4 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International indicates that JD Group (09618, JD.US) is expected to achieve a 13% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3, reaching 294.62 billion RMB, aligning with market expectations [1] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for Q3 is projected at 294.62 billion RMB, reflecting a 13% increase compared to the previous year, consistent with institutional expectations [1] - Adjusted net profit is anticipated to be 4.2 billion RMB, corresponding to a profit margin of 1.4%, which is an improvement from 5.1% in the same period last year and 2.1% in Q2 [1] Business Segment Performance - The retail business is expected to maintain steady growth, with a year-on-year increase of 10%, driven by double-digit growth in daily necessities, while the growth rate for electronics is slowing due to a high base effect from last year [1] - The third quarter saw an increase in the order volume for food delivery compared to Q2, with improvements in fulfillment efficiency and subsidy efficiency leading to a reduction in losses [1] Future Outlook - The company is expected to further enhance cross-selling with retail during the fourth quarter's e-commerce promotional period, potentially leading to more synergistic effects [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group [3][5]. Core Views - JD Group's revenue for Q2 2025 reached 356.7 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.4%. The revenue breakdown includes 310.1 billion yuan from JD Retail, 51.6 billion yuan from JD Logistics, and 13.9 billion yuan from new businesses, with respective growth rates of 20.6%, 16.6%, and 198.8% [1][2]. - The report highlights the strong performance of the electronics and daily necessities categories, with electronics revenue reaching 179 billion yuan (up 23.4%) and daily necessities revenue at 103.4 billion yuan (up 16.4%) [2]. - JD's food delivery business has expanded rapidly, covering 350 cities and attracting over 1.5 million restaurant partners, with a daily order volume of 25 million during Q2 [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the synergy between JD's retail and food delivery businesses, which has led to increased cross-category consumption and significant growth in PLUS membership registrations [2][3]. Financial Summary - The projected revenue for JD Group from 2025 to 2027 is 1,327.2 billion yuan, 1,435.8 billion yuan, and 1,575.3 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.5%, 8.2%, and 9.7% respectively [3][4]. - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to decline to 27.4 billion yuan in 2025, followed by recoveries to 37.4 billion yuan in 2026 and 50.6 billion yuan in 2027, with respective growth rates of -42.7%, 36.5%, and 35.3% [3][4]. - The report forecasts a non-GAAP net profit margin of approximately 2.1% for 2025, improving to 2.6% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027 [3][4]. Valuation - Based on a 10x P/E ratio for 2026 estimates, the report values JD Group at 374.3 billion yuan, translating to target prices of 35 USD and 137 HKD per share [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Supreme People's Court has released five typical civil cases related to online consumption, emphasizing the importance of integrity in business operations and the legal protection of consumer rights [1][6]. Group 1: Online Consumption Trends - New business models in the online consumption sector are emerging, leading to various new issues and challenges that require ongoing research [8]. - The 2023 "618" shopping festival highlighted significant changes in online consumption trends, with a shift from price wars to a focus on product quality and value for money [2][6]. - High-tech products, energy-efficient green products, and health-related outdoor products have seen sustained popularity among consumers [2]. Group 2: Legal Challenges and Consumer Rights - Online consumption disputes often involve multiple parties, including platform operators, merchants, payment service providers, and logistics companies, complicating legal relationships [3]. - The Supreme People's Court has established that operators must fulfill their commitments made during live marketing, such as compensation promises, to protect consumer rights [4][5]. - The court has also addressed issues of false advertising and excessive collection of consumer information, holding businesses accountable for misleading practices [6]. Group 3: Regulatory Developments - The State Administration for Market Regulation has proposed a draft for the "Live E-commerce Supervision Management Measures," outlining the responsibilities of platform operators in managing compliance and consumer protection [7]. - There is a call for platforms to enhance their role as gatekeepers, ensuring that marketing practices are transparent and do not mislead consumers [7]. Group 4: Future Directions - The Supreme People's Court plans to increase research efforts in the online consumption sector, aiming to unify judicial standards and improve communication with market regulatory bodies to prevent and resolve disputes [8].

Group 1: Meituan's Investment in Brazil - Meituan plans to invest $1 billion in Brazil over the next five years to support its "Keeta" delivery service [1] - The "Keeta" service will establish a nationwide instant delivery network in Brazil and provide comprehensive services, diverse marketing tools, and digital operation tools for local restaurant partners [1] - Brazil's large population presents significant potential for the delivery market, but the competition is intense [1] Group 2: JD Group's Q1 Financial Performance - JD Group reported a revenue of 301.1 billion RMB in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, marking the highest growth rate in nearly three years [2] - The revenue from electronic products grew by 17.1%, while daily consumer goods increased by 14.9% [2] - The number of active users has seen double-digit growth for six consecutive quarters, exceeding 20% [2] Group 3: JD Logistics Q1 Performance - JD Logistics reported a revenue of 46.97 billion RMB in Q1, with a year-on-year growth of 11.5% [3] - Non-IFRS profit reached 751.5 million RMB, reflecting a 13.4% increase [3] - The growth in integrated supply chain customer revenue indicates improved service quality and operational efficiency [3] Group 4: "618" Shopping Festival Launch - JD and Taobao launched the "618" shopping festival, with the pre-sale period starting in mid-May for the first time [4] - Both platforms have innovated their subsidy systems while maintaining traditional discount models, creating a "low price + service + entertainment" consumption ecosystem [4] - The early strategy aims to secure consumers and attract new customers while retaining existing ones, amidst increasing competition from platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou [4]