Core Insights - The cancellation of the T86 exemption policy by the U.S. has significantly impacted cross-border e-commerce, pushing sellers to seek new markets while facing increased operational challenges [1][2][5] - Companies like SHEIN and Temu, which previously benefited from the exemption, are now experiencing a decline in user engagement and are accelerating their expansion into overseas markets [2][3] - Emerging markets such as Japan, Europe, and Latin America are being considered for expansion due to their growth potential, although challenges like compliance and logistics remain [3][4][5] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The U.S. has reduced the tax exemption for small packages, leading to a shift in the business model for cross-border sellers [1][2] - SHEIN and Temu have seen significant drops in daily active users, with SHEIN's U.S. monthly active users decreasing by 30% in May compared to March [1][2] - The cancellation of the exemption policy has forced companies to adapt quickly, with many looking towards markets like Japan, which offers lower logistics costs and a high consumer acceptance rate [3][4] Group 2: Regional Opportunities - Japan is emerging as a preferred market due to its proximity, high consumer income, and low return rates, making it attractive for cross-border sellers [3][4] - The European market presents strong consumer purchasing power but comes with complex compliance requirements, such as VAT registration [4] - Latin America, particularly Brazil and Mexico, is showing rapid growth in e-commerce, with expected revenue growth rates of 17.6% and 19% respectively [4][5] Group 3: Operational Challenges - The shift from fully managed to semi-managed models increases operational burdens on sellers, requiring them to handle logistics and customs themselves [7] - The need for local warehousing and the associated costs pose significant challenges, especially in distant markets like Latin America [4][6] - Companies must now focus on localizing their operations and understanding consumer behavior to remain competitive in the evolving landscape of cross-border e-commerce [7][8]

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 2025 年 7 月 9 日星期三 经济要闻 1. 国家发改委：新增 100 亿元以工代赈投资助力重点群体就业。国家发展改 革委日前新增下达 100 亿元中央预算内投资，支持 26 个省（区、市）和新疆 生产建设兵团实施 1975 个以工代赈项目。这批项目预计发放劳务报酬 45.9 亿元，带动 31 万名重点人群就业，包括脱贫人口、返乡农民工等群体。项目 劳务报酬占中央投资比例提高至不低于 40%，重点实施村道巷道硬化等劳动 密集型工程。截至 6 月底，2025 年度以工代赈中央投资累计达 295 亿元，预 计带动 70 余万名困难群众就业，发放劳务报酬超 110 亿元。下一步，国家发 改委将推动项目全部开工建设，强化重点群体就业保障。（资料来源：同花顺） 数据来源：《七月金股汇》 2025 年 06 月 29 日， 东兴证券研究所 2.发改委等三部门：通过地方政府专项债券资金等支持符合条件的零碳园区 项目。发改委等三部门印发开展零碳园区建设的通知，统筹利用现有资金渠 道支持零碳园区建设，鼓励各地区对零碳园区建设给予资金支持，通过地方 政府专项债券资金等支持符合条件的项目。鼓励 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 7 月 6 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 商贸零售行业周报 持续看好国内消费复苏潜力 相关研究： | 1.《近期板块走强，关注零售百货 | | --- | | 业态变革》 2024.12.11 | | 2.《2024年社零总额增长3.5%，线 | | 下商超业态平稳复苏》2025.01.24 | 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 100.00% | 0.00% | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 24/7 24/8 | 24/9 | 24/10 | 24/11 | 24/12 | 25/1 | 25/2 | 25/3 | 25/4 | 25/5 | 25/6 | | -100.00% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 沪深300 | | | | | | | 商贸零售(申万) | | | | % | | 1 个月 | | | | 3 个月 | | | 12 个月 | | | | 相对 ...

Core Viewpoint - The logistics industry in China is experiencing an upward trend in business volume and overall prosperity, with the logistics prosperity index reaching 50.8% in June, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [1] Industry Performance - The total business volume index has remained in the expansion zone for four consecutive months this year [1] - The central and western regions of China have business volume indices that exceed the national average [1] - Various sectors, including road transport, rail transport, air transport, and postal express, are all showing indices within the expansion range [1] Specific Sector Insights - The postal express and air transport sectors have particularly strong performance, with business volume indices of 69.3% and 52% respectively, driven by online shopping and seasonal demand for fresh cold chain products [1] - Seasonal characteristics are evident in logistics development for June, with increased coal transport demand due to summer peak seasons, and a rise in orders for home appliances and 3C products driven by trade-in programs [1] - The summer travel season is boosting demand in tourism, e-commerce, and outdoor products, with data indicating a recovery in demand across rail transport, road transport, and e-commerce express sectors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Supreme People's Court has released five typical civil cases related to online consumption, emphasizing the importance of integrity in business operations and the legal protection of consumer rights [1][6]. Group 1: Online Consumption Trends - New business models in the online consumption sector are emerging, leading to various new issues and challenges that require ongoing research [8]. - The 2023 "618" shopping festival highlighted significant changes in online consumption trends, with a shift from price wars to a focus on product quality and value for money [2][6]. - High-tech products, energy-efficient green products, and health-related outdoor products have seen sustained popularity among consumers [2]. Group 2: Legal Challenges and Consumer Rights - Online consumption disputes often involve multiple parties, including platform operators, merchants, payment service providers, and logistics companies, complicating legal relationships [3]. - The Supreme People's Court has established that operators must fulfill their commitments made during live marketing, such as compensation promises, to protect consumer rights [4][5]. - The court has also addressed issues of false advertising and excessive collection of consumer information, holding businesses accountable for misleading practices [6]. Group 3: Regulatory Developments - The State Administration for Market Regulation has proposed a draft for the "Live E-commerce Supervision Management Measures," outlining the responsibilities of platform operators in managing compliance and consumer protection [7]. - There is a call for platforms to enhance their role as gatekeepers, ensuring that marketing practices are transparent and do not mislead consumers [7]. Group 4: Future Directions - The Supreme People's Court plans to increase research efforts in the online consumption sector, aiming to unify judicial standards and improve communication with market regulatory bodies to prevent and resolve disputes [8].

Core Viewpoint - Suning.com is divesting its stake in four Carrefour stores for a nominal price of 4 RMB, highlighting the challenges faced in the retail sector and the company's shift back to its core business of home appliances [2][4][6]. Group 1: Transaction Details - Suning.com announced the sale of 100% equity in Carrefour stores in Ningbo, Hangzhou, Zhuzhou, and Shenyang for 1 RMB each, resulting in these stores being excluded from its consolidated financial statements [2][3]. - The buyer is a newly established company, Shanghai Jiafu Qishi Enterprise Service Partnership, which is controlled by Youan Law Firm and is involved in debt restructuring [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Context - The four Carrefour stores have accumulated a total debt of approximately 1.76 billion RMB, with individual debts of 162 million RMB for Ningbo, 438 million RMB for Hangzhou, 100 million RMB for Zhuzhou, and over 1.06 billion RMB for Shenyang [4]. - As of the end of Q1 2023, these Carrefour stores had ceased operations and were classified as untrustworthy debtors [4]. Group 3: Strategic Shift - Suning.com is refocusing on its core business of home appliances and is streamlining non-core business units, which includes the divestiture of Carrefour [6][9]. - The company had previously acquired an 80% stake in Carrefour China for 4.8 billion RMB in 2019, but the retail environment has since deteriorated, leading to significant operational challenges [6][7]. Group 4: Market Performance - In 2023, only four Carrefour stores remain operational in China, indicating a drastic reduction from the 210 stores at the time of acquisition [5][6]. - Suning.com reported a revenue of 567.91 billion RMB in the previous year, with a net profit of 6.12 billion RMB, marking its first annual profit since 2020 [9][10]. Group 5: Industry Challenges - The retail sector, particularly supermarkets, is facing significant pressure due to changing consumer behaviors and external market conditions [4][6]. - Analysts suggest that the operational models of home appliances and supermarkets conflict, complicating Suning's expansion into unfamiliar retail sectors [7][10].

中国商报（记者 蒋永霞）2025年超长版"6·18"大促已完美收官，这场历时近一个月的消费盛宴虽未呈现集中爆发态势，但战线拉长下的持续热度依然彰显 出消费市场的强劲活力。在提质增效的主旋律下，平台与商家的成绩仍再创新高。 不过，与往年不同的是，今年各平台不再一味强调"全网最低价"，而是通过多元化的优惠形式，包括立减活动、9折券发放及限时减免券推送等，为消费者 带来更具品质的购物体验。同时，平台将重心转向"挤水分"，助力产业链优化升级，真正实现商家与消费者的双赢。 消费热情不减 用户规模再创新高 从电商平台发布的战报来看，今年"6·18"，各平台业绩整体稳健增长，3C、家电、服饰美妆、即时零售等领域表现尤为突出。 截至6月18日23:59，2025年京东"6·18"再创新高，京东零售线上业务、线下业态及京东外卖整体订单量超22亿单。3C、家电品类的规模、增速稳居行业第 一，服饰美妆、日百品类增速领跑行业，多元业态同频共振带动百万线下门店订单强劲增长，京东采销直播成交额同比增长285%。 2025天猫"6·18"全用户规模和活跃度创新高，品牌全周期成交高效增长。截至6月18日24时，453个品牌在天猫"6·18" ...

事实上，"限额管理"并非临时举措。早在1月18日，省发展改革委、省财政厅发布了《关于2025年加力 扩围实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》，就明确提出"消费品以旧换新资金实行限额 管理、资格调控"。 6月9日，有江苏消费者登录京东APP平台，查看补贴资格领取和使用流程，在江苏家电国家补贴专区， 页面提示"因活动升级，家电品类国补资格暂时停止领取"。同样，淘宝"国补"专区也显示，"江苏国补 升级中，升级期间您将无法领取/使用国补优惠，后续开通时间另行通知"。在线下门店，也有消费者遇 到无法立刻领取补贴的情况。这让满心期待享受优惠的消费者困惑不已。 今年以来，消费市场持续升温，江苏家电及3C以旧换新活动热度爆表。数据显示，今年1—5月，我省 家电及3C累计销售1826万件，使用补贴资金74.32亿元，拉动销售额455.5亿元，各项数据均居全国第 一。如何在保证消费热度的同时，有效确保补贴的持续性？江苏通过对补贴资金的"限额管理"，阶段性 发放补贴，精准控制资金消耗速度。这样一来，既减轻地方政府审计核销的压力，又降低了资金使用的 风险。业内人士建议，未来可以进一步深化政企合作，鼓励参与活动的经营主体追加 ...

6月14日，中欧国际工商学院AMP课程二十周年庆典论坛在上海举行。论坛现场，TikTokShop跨境POP 业务负责人、中欧校友张一帆以"从'中国制造'到'全球爆款'：跨境电商内容驱动新增长"为题，解析了 内容电商出海的新范式。他在现场谈到："新形势下，品牌化刻不容缓。品牌化将带来高溢价、高认知 度、高忠诚度，有品牌力的商家更有可能在长期的全球化竞争中获得长效增长。" 过去20年，依托庞大且快速增长的国内消费市场，一大批优秀品牌和优秀企业迅速崛起；未来20年，全 球市场存在大量未被满足的消费需求，待开拓和发展，这些正是中国企业家可以切实把握的创收和盈利 的大机会。 数据显示，未来四年全球电商市场的复合增长率约为10%，全球跨境电商增速高达26%，展现出强劲的 发展潜力。跨境电商已成为中国企业开拓海外市场的有效路径，而新兴的内容电商模式更能高效传递产 品价值和品牌理念。 "了解不同国家消费者的购买习惯和特点，这一点对于企业出海非常重要。"比如，美国市场呈现出显著 的多元消费市场特征。多元的背后主要有三方面原因：一是收入差异，不同层级人群的收入水平差距巨 大，购买水平也完全不一样；美国消费者因收入差异产生更多高频 ...

浦银国际 于变局中开新局 - 2025 年中期展望策略会 20250616 摘要 特朗普政府对等关税政策调整频繁，初期方案因税率过高被淡化，后暂 缓对中国外国家执行，并豁免部分 3C 产品关税，政策不确定性增加。 中美贸易谈判虽有进展，如中国同意放宽稀土出口限制，但缺乏正式文 本，若维持现状，美国平均关税水平将远高于特朗普上任前，对全球贸 易及经济增长构成下行风险。 个性化对等关税若全面实施，或将显著推高美国通胀，极端情况下可能 使通胀率上升 1.4-2.9 个百分点，并可能导致美国 GDP 增速放缓，甚至 迫使美联储加大降息力度。 关税战对中国 GDP 产生负面影响，目前美国对中国加征的关税已导致中 国 GDP 增速下降，但中国政府可能通过降准、降息及财政刺激等手段应 对，以稳定经济增长。 加征关税对美国通胀的影响预计将在暑期显现，可能导致下半年通胀率 上升，同时劳动力市场可能恶化，失业率或将上升，美国经济增速预测 因此被小幅下调。 Q&A 2025 年下半年全球关税政策的主要变化是什么？ 2025 年下半年，关税政策的主要变化仍然集中在特朗普政府的关税措施上。 特朗普上任以来，对墨西哥、加拿大和中国加征关 ...