2025年以来，美元指数与美国宏观数据呈现强联动博弈特征，走势随数据变化持续起伏。年初美元指数自高位开启下行趋势，上半年下行幅度显著，创下多 年同期以来的较大跌幅，核心驱动源于美国劳动力市场边际趋弱，叠加市场对美联储宽松政策的预期升温。尽管期间出现阶段性反弹，但全年震荡偏弱的核 心格局未发生根本改变。而美联储年内实施的多轮降息操作，进一步对美元形成持续性压制，这一货币宽松导向下的美元弱势格局，也为黄金资产带来了明 确的利好支撑。 图：美元指数2025年走势 数据来源：Wind,2025/12/31 一、美国宏观数据共振：黄金上涨的核心逻辑支撑 本轮黄金资产的强势表现，并非单一因素驱动，而是美国经济基本面、通胀水平与政策导向等多维度数据形成的共振效应所致。从经济基本面来看，劳动力 市场的降温信号持续释放，叠加消费信心指数与地产相关数据的疲弱表现，共同指向美国经济增长动能的放缓。这一变化直接弱化了市场对紧缩政策的预 期，为政策转向宽松奠定了基础。11月份的数据显示，美国初次申请失业金人数为 19.2 万人，ADP 新增就业人数为- 3.2 万人，私营部门就业岗位出现净减 少，失业申请则处于相对低位。12月份的数据 ...

在全球宏观经济格局不断调整的背景下，美元指数的走势始终是影响各类资产配置的关键变量。近期美元指数走弱趋势愈发明确且力度显著，具体来看，11 月下旬以来便开启震荡下行模式，连续跌破100、99两大整数关口，截至12月17日收盘，期间累计下行幅度达到1.72%，最新收盘报98.71，再次逼近98整数 关口。拉长时间维度观察，今年以来美元指数整体下行态势清晰，年内下行幅度已达到9.30%，其中上半年跌幅更是达到10.8%，即便年中出现阶段性反 弹，也未能扭转整体弱势格局。这一明确的走弱变化不仅重塑了全球资产的风险偏好，更让黄金这一传统避险资产的价值再度凸显。对于普通投资者而言， 黄金ETF凭借其便捷性与高效性，成为把握这一轮市场机遇的优质选择。以下将从核心逻辑与配置价值两方面，解析美元走弱背景下黄金ETF的投资机遇。 图：美元指数近期下行 | 05 低98.4115 均98.5815 量0 换0.00% 振0.34% 额0 | F9 不复权 超级叠加 画线 工具 Q | | 98.7125 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/01/15-2025/12/19(243 ...

Core Viewpoint - In the context of a shifting global economic landscape and increasing market volatility, investors are increasingly focusing on the stability and risk resistance of their asset portfolios. Gold, as a time-tested hard currency, plays a crucial role as a "ballast" in asset allocation, and the emergence of gold ETFs allows ordinary investors to conveniently capture the long-term value of gold [1]. Group 1: Economic Context and Federal Reserve Actions - On December 11, 2025, the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%–3.75%, marking the third rate cut of the year. Following the announcement, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield declined, the dollar index weakened, and gold prices shifted from a decline to an increase, maintaining high volatility [1]. - The FOMC's voting results showed 9 votes in favor and 3 against, indicating a division in the committee regarding inflation pressures and economic slowdown assessments. The committee also announced a monthly purchase plan of $40 billion in short-term Treasury bonds starting December 12 to maintain ample reserves [4]. Group 2: Gold's Unique Attributes - Gold is recognized for its strong safe-haven properties, providing stability during geopolitical conflicts, global economic crises, and unexpected market events. Unlike traditional financial assets, gold's intrinsic value is less affected by a single economy or financial system, making it a reliable asset during times of uncertainty [9]. - Gold serves as an effective hedge against inflation, as its value is closely tied to physical commodities. In environments of monetary expansion and rising inflation, gold can maintain its value, helping investors preserve purchasing power [9]. - The low correlation of gold with traditional assets enhances its appeal for risk diversification. Gold's pricing logic is distinct from that of stocks and bonds, allowing it to act independently and even provide a counterbalance during traditional asset downturns [10]. Group 3: Gold ETFs as an Investment Tool - Gold ETFs address the challenges of traditional physical gold investment, such as storage issues, high transaction barriers, and limited liquidity, making them an optimal tool for ordinary investors to engage in gold investment [12]. - Gold ETFs facilitate convenient and low-cost investment in gold, allowing investors to trade gold as easily as stocks without the burdens of physical gold ownership, such as storage and transportation costs [12]. - The high liquidity of gold ETFs supports dynamic portfolio adjustments, enabling investors to buy or sell based on market conditions without facing liquidity constraints [13]. - Gold ETFs are designed to closely track gold prices, ensuring that investors can capture long-term appreciation without the risks associated with gold-related stocks or funds [13]. Group 4: Conclusion on Gold's Role in Asset Allocation - In the current complex market environment, the focus of asset allocation has shifted from "pursuing high returns" to "achieving stable appreciation." Gold, with its safe-haven, anti-inflation, and low-correlation attributes, serves as a "ballast" for navigating economic cycles, while gold ETFs provide accessible, low-cost, and highly liquid investment options for ordinary investors [15][16].

当前，全球金融格局正经历深刻变革，"去美元化"浪潮席卷而来，成为重塑资产配置逻辑的关键变量。在此背景下，黄金 作为无主权信用风险的核心资产，其战略价值再度凸显。而黄金ETF凭借低成本、高流动性、高透明度的优势，成为普通 投资者把握长期趋势、布局黄金资产的优质选择。截至2025年 11月28日，伦敦金现收盘报4218.55美元/盎司，今年以来累 计涨幅达 60.8%，创历史强势表现。 近年来，美元的全球储备货币地位持续弱化，去美元化已从单一国家的主动选择，演变为全球范围内的结构性变革。国际 货币基金组织相关数据显示，美元在全球外汇储备中的占比已降至多年来的低位。这一变化背后，是各国对美元信用体系 的深层担忧。 一方面，美国长期财政赤字高企、债务规模居高不下，叠加频繁的地缘政治博弈与金融限制，让美元资产的安全性备受质 疑。美国前财政部长助理克劳利坦言，美国滥用美元霸权实施鲁莽的货币和财政政策，是各国寻求替代方案的核心原因。 另一方面，多国主动推进贸易结算多元化，通过达成双边本币结算协议、推动区域货币合作、探索新型结算工具等方式， 形成了对美元结算体系的集体挑战。 在此趋势下，黄金成为各国央行的"储备压舱石"。全球 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent trends in the gold market indicate a stable performance, with gold prices maintaining a strong position despite minor fluctuations, reflecting its long-term investment value and the increasing recognition from institutions and central banks [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The gold market experienced slight fluctuations from November 3 to November 7, with London gold prices decreasing by 0.06% to close at 4000.3, yet remaining above the 4000 mark [1]. - Year-to-date, gold assets have shown a robust increase of 52.44%, highlighting their strong long-term allocation value [1]. Group 2: Central Bank Activities - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, viewing it as a core asset to mitigate geopolitical risks and stabilize foreign exchange reserves [2]. - In November 2025, China's gold reserves increased by 1.25 tons, continuing a trend of gradual accumulation, which reflects a strategic approach to reserve optimization [2]. Group 3: Investment in Gold ETFs - Gold ETFs have emerged as a popular investment option due to their accessibility, with a low entry cost allowing investors to participate in gold investment without the challenges of physical gold storage [4]. - The advantages of gold ETFs include lower investment thresholds, price traceability to international gold prices, high liquidity, and the ability to hedge against market volatility [4]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - A systematic investment approach, such as dollar-cost averaging, is recommended to balance investment costs and mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations [6]. - It is advised to maintain gold ETF holdings between 5% to 15% of total assets to achieve risk diversification while capturing potential gains from gold investments [7]. - Investors should focus on selecting high-quality gold ETFs based on fund size and tracking deviation to ensure effective price replication [8]. - Adjusting holdings based on macroeconomic signals is crucial, with recommendations to reduce exposure during economic recovery and increase during geopolitical tensions [9]. Group 5: Market Outlook - The combination of gold's anti-inflation and geopolitical risk-hedging properties, along with ongoing central bank purchases, positions gold as a cornerstone for asset allocation [11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant rebound in the gold market, with spot gold closing at $4024.46 per ounce on October 30, marking a 2.4% increase, the largest single-day gain since the market correction in October [1] - The strong demand for gold is supported by central bank purchases and investments in gold bars and coins, with global gold demand reaching a record high of 1313 tons in Q3 2025 [1] - The performance of the technology sector in the U.S. stock market is under pressure, particularly due to Meta's net profit decline and increased AI capital expenditure expectations, leading to a significant sell-off in tech stocks [1] Group 2 - Historical data shows that every rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve since 2000 has led to substantial appreciation in gold assets, with gold prices increasing by 53.8% in the current cycle from September 2024 to October 2025 [2] - Gold ETFs have consistently captured market allocation demand during these cycles, with their net value and scale growth closely tied to the strengthening of gold asset attributes in a rate-cutting environment [2] Group 3 - Currently, gold ETFs face a mixed market environment with short-term pressures from expectations of improved international trade relations, which diminish gold's safe-haven appeal, while also experiencing significant support from the recent 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve [5] - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut lowers the holding cost of gold and potentially weakens the dollar, providing foundational support for gold prices and gold ETFs [5] - As of the end of October, the probability of a rate cut in December has decreased to 72.8%, indicating market uncertainty regarding future monetary policy [5][7] Group 4 - Investment strategies for gold ETFs should balance short-term volatility with long-term trends, as historical patterns indicate that gold typically rises following the initiation of a rate-cutting cycle [8] - Despite short-term pressures from trade relations, the ongoing rate-cutting cycle and structural support from global central bank gold purchases suggest that the upward momentum in gold prices will continue [8] - Gold's attributes as an inflation hedge and a counter to geopolitical risks, combined with global monetary easing, position it as a "ballast" in asset allocation [8]