1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, China - US trade negotiations from the 24th - 27th progressed well, boosting market optimism. US September CPI and core CPI were lower than expected, leading to a weakening of the US dollar index and Treasury yields, and an increase in global risk appetite. Domestically, economic growth accelerated, and the good progress of China - US trade negotiations boosted domestic market expectations. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee emphasized supply security, manufacturing, and technological self - reliance, which helped boost domestic risk preference. The short - term macro upward drive has strengthened, and attention should be paid to the progress of China - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [3]. - Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index is expected to be volatile in the short term, with a cautious long - position recommendation; government bonds are expected to be volatile, with a cautious wait - and - see attitude; the black, non - ferrous, and energy - chemical sectors are expected to have short - term volatile rebounds, with cautious long - positions recommended; precious metals are expected to have a short - term high - level correction, with a cautious wait - and - see attitude [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Macro**: Overseas, the good progress of China - US trade negotiations and lower - than - expected US inflation data increased global risk appetite. Domestically, economic growth accelerated, and policy orientation boosted domestic risk preference. The short - term macro upward drive strengthened, and attention should be paid to trade negotiation progress and domestic policy implementation. For assets, the stock index and government bonds are expected to be volatile, while the black, non - ferrous, and energy - chemical sectors may have short - term rebounds, and precious metals may correct [3]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as semiconductor chips, artificial intelligence, and military industry, the domestic stock market rose significantly. Fundamentally, domestic economic growth accelerated, and China - US trade negotiations progressed well. Policy orientation boosted domestic risk preference. The short - term macro upward drive strengthened, and short - term cautious long - positions are recommended [4]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market declined on Friday night. Although US inflation data increased the expectation of Fed rate cuts, the good progress of China - US trade negotiations reduced the demand for hedging. Precious metals are expected to have a short - term correction, but the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Short - term long - position holders are advised to reduce positions and wait, while medium - to - long - term investors can buy on dips [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot market declined slightly on Friday, while the futures price rebounded slightly. With the release of the communique of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee and positive news from China - US trade negotiations, the macro expectation remained strong. The apparent consumption of steel increased, and speculative demand also expanded. The supply of five major steel products increased, but considering the compressed profit of steel mills, future supply is expected to decline. The steel market has no trend - based market, and is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot price of iron ore declined slightly on Friday, and the futures price was weakly volatile. Due to the compressed profit of steel mills, iron - water production has been declining for three consecutive weeks and may continue to decline. Steel mills mainly replenish stocks on a just - in - time basis. The global iron ore shipment increased, while the arrival volume decreased. The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate within a range [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot price of silicon iron and silicon manganese remained flat on Friday, while the futures price declined slightly. The demand for ferroalloys is acceptable in the short term. The supply of silicon manganese increased slightly. The price of silicon iron and silicon manganese futures is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [7]. Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: The futures price of soda ash fluctuated within a range last week. The supply increased in the short term, and there are plans for capacity expansion in the fourth quarter. The demand increased slightly. The supply pressure remains, and a bearish view is recommended in the medium - to - long - term [8]. - **Glass**: The futures price of glass fluctuated within a range last week. The supply remained stable, while the demand in the peak season was weaker than expected. The inventory of float glass is relatively high. With policy support, the glass market is expected to be traded within a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to the demand during the year - end peak construction season [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The short - term macro environment is positive, but the high US copper inventory restricts import demand. The shutdown of an Indonesian copper mine supports the futures price, while the possibility of the restart of a Panamanian copper mine needs to be monitored. The domestic refined copper de - stocking is less than expected. The copper price is expected to remain volatile at a high level [9][10]. - **Aluminum**: The price of Shanghai aluminum rose slightly on Friday. Although the impact of an overseas aluminum smelter's suspension of production is small, the overall market sentiment is positive, and the lack of downward momentum is due to market expectations. The decline in London aluminum inventory supports the price [10]. - **Tin**: After the end of the maintenance of a large - scale smelter in Yunnan, the smelting start - up rate increased significantly. However, the supply of tin ore remains tight. The high price suppresses consumption, but the low inventory in the early stage leads to some rigid - demand restocking. The tin price is expected to remain volatile at a high level [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: As of October 23, the weekly production of lithium carbonate increased, and the import volume also increased year - on - year. The social inventory decreased slightly. The supply and demand both increased, and the price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, but attention should be paid to the hedging pressure [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: As of October 24, the weekly production increased, and the social inventory decreased slightly. Although there is a slight shutdown in the southwest region, the high start - up rate in Xinjiang brings supply pressure. The demand is relatively stable, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The downstream prices are stable, but the terminal demand is weak. The inventory remains high, and the policy expectation supports the price. The polysilicon price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, waiting for changes in supply - demand or policy [12]. Energy - Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: After the sanctions on Russia, the Russian oil supply channel may be restricted, but the actual market participants are still waiting. The ongoing China - US talks may support the oil price, but the short - term short - selling trend remains unchanged until the return of Asian buyers [13][14]. - **Asphalt**: The rebound of the oil price drove up the asphalt futures price, but the basis remains low, and the actual shipment volume is low. The inventory pressure of asphalt plants continues, and the supply pressure increases. Considering the possible decline of crude oil prices in the future, the asphalt market may lack a strong upward drive [14]. - **PX**: The rise in crude oil prices drove up the polyester sector. The high start - up rate of PTA provides some demand support for PX. The PX price is expected to fluctuate with crude oil, but there is still a relatively large bearish risk [14]. - **PTA**: The downstream start - up rate decreased, but some winter - clothing orders increased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The cost is the main driving factor, and a short - selling strategy is recommended in the short term [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory increased, but the uncertainty of domestic ethylene production and the increase in downstream restocking may support the price. The price is expected to remain volatile in the short term [15]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber price rebounded slightly with the polyester sector and oil price, but it is expected to remain weak and volatile. The terminal orders increased seasonally, but the increase was limited, and the inventory increased slightly. The upward space is limited, and a short - selling strategy can be considered in the medium - term [15]. - **Methanol**: The current device maintenance reduced the production capacity utilization rate, but the supply pressure is expected to increase next week. The demand is weak, and the inventory is high. The methanol price is expected to remain volatile in the short term [16]. - **PP**: Although there is some device maintenance, the supply is still sufficient. The demand improved significantly due to "Double 11" stocking, and the inventory decreased slightly. The PP price may have a short - term repair [16]. - **LLDPE**: The expected supply of polyethylene increases, and the industrial inventory decreases. The downstream start - up rate may increase slightly. The price is expected to have a short - term repair, but the supply surplus situation remains, and attention should be paid to device maintenance [16]. - **Urea**: The supply of urea is becoming more abundant. The agricultural and industrial demand is stable, and some reserve demand may be released. The inventory at the enterprise level increases slightly, and the port inventory decreases significantly. The cost support is strong, and the price is expected to remain low and volatile [17]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The export shipment of US soybeans decreased significantly this crop year, and the sales to China are still zero. The market is waiting for the result of China - US soybean trade negotiations. The soybean price rebounded recently, while the oil and meal prices were weak, leading to a decline in domestic soybean crushing profit [18]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: Domestic soybean oil mills have a large supply of soybeans and high inventory, and maintain a high - level operation. The soybean meal supply is sufficient, but the new trading volume is small. The future of China - US soybean trade will determine the supply gap risk in the first quarter of next year. The increase in soybean prices and the loss of oil mills may limit future soybean procurement. The soybean meal futures may have short - covering, but attention should be paid to trade negotiation dynamics [18]. - **Oils**: The unexpected increase in palm oil production in October caused short - term adjustment pressure, but the rise in international oilseeds and crude oil prices provided some support. Palm oil has entered the production - reduction cycle, and the seasonal de - stocking trend remains. The consumption of soybean and rapeseed oil is in the peak season, and the price difference between soybean and palm oil is expected to be repaired. The vegetable oil inventory is decreasing, and the market has no clear direction for now [19]. - **Corn**: The corn price in the Northeast region is stable. The China - US trade negotiations have an impact on the market, and traders' intention to build inventory is general. The current price is close to the planting cost, and farmers may be more reluctant to sell as the temperature drops [19]. - **Hogs**: At the current low price level, the price difference between fat and lean pigs is widening, and the second - fattening demand is increasing. The pig price may stabilize and rebound in the short term, and attention should be paid to pork purchase and storage actions [19].

Group 1 - The market is currently experiencing a shift from a focus on banks and low-volatility stocks to a pricing strategy that emphasizes fundamental trends, particularly in growth sectors driven by industrial trends [1][9][28] - The valuation of the market, as indicated by the PB ratio of 1.74, is approaching historical highs, suggesting limited room for further price increases based on fundamentals alone [1][6][28] - There is a notable transition from small-cap growth represented by the National Securities 2000 index to large-cap growth represented by the ChiNext index, driven by valuation differences and investor focus on profitability [2][11][28] Group 2 - Domestic economic indicators show a "double weakness" in both reality and expectations, with financial data indicating weak credit growth and economic data reflecting declining investment and consumption [3][14][20] - The manufacturing sector is experiencing a decline in investment growth and industrial output, which is seen as a normal phenomenon during the transition from an inward-focused economy to a more balanced one [3][16][20] - Historical trends suggest that corporate earnings typically bottom out before PPI, indicating potential recovery in profitability for midstream manufacturing as raw material costs decline faster than factory prices [3][20][28] Group 3 - Inflationary pressures from overseas tariffs are becoming evident, impacting U.S. PPI and altering interest rate expectations, which may accelerate manufacturing investment [4][22][26] - Despite a lower-than-expected CPI, the core CPI has slightly exceeded expectations, indicating persistent inflationary pressures from tariffs [4][22][26] - Global manufacturing investment is on the rise, as evidenced by Japan's machine tool orders increasing by 3.6% year-on-year, primarily driven by overseas demand [4][26][28] Group 4 - The market's focus is shifting towards fundamental pricing, particularly in growth sectors, while large-cap blue-chip stocks continue to underperform [5][28][29] - The recovery of midstream manufacturing profits is expected to take time, but the overall trend towards improving fundamentals is anticipated [5][28][29] - Investment strategies are recommended to focus on upstream resource products and capital goods, as well as consumer-oriented dividend stocks, while monitoring large-cap growth opportunities [5][29]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market showed a pattern of rising in the morning and falling in the afternoon on Thursday, with the main contracts of stock index futures rising and falling differently. The market is influenced by domestic and overseas news and capital flows. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2509 at an appropriate time and maintain a moderately bullish attitude [2][3][6]. - Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The bond market is under pressure from the equity market, but considering financial and inflation data, it is expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and focus on the tax - period capital situation and new bond issuance pricing [7][9]. - The prices of precious metals rose first and then fell. The market is affected by factors such as the US PPI data and the attitude of the Federal Reserve towards interest rate cuts. It is recommended to construct a bullish spread portfolio through gold call options and hold long positions in silver or construct a bullish spread strategy using silver put options [10][12][13]. - The main contract of container shipping futures fluctuated. Due to the high growth rate of container capacity and weak European demand, it is expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to hold short positions in the 10 - contract [14][15]. - The prices of non - ferrous metals showed different trends. Copper is expected to fluctuate in the short - term; alumina is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and short at high levels in the medium - term; aluminum is expected to be under pressure at high levels; zinc and tin are expected to fluctuate; nickel and stainless steel are expected to adjust within a range; lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in a bullish range [19][21][23]. - The prices of black metals also showed different trends. Steel prices are supported by limited inventory accumulation in steel mills and upcoming production restrictions; iron ore prices are expected to follow the trend of steel prices, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions and wait and see; coking coal and coke prices have seen their futures prices peak and fall back, and it is recommended to take profit on speculative positions and wait and see [41][44][46]. - For agricultural products, the long - term outlook for meal products is positive, but short - term profit - taking is recommended; the price of live pigs is oscillating at a low level, and attention should be paid to the release rhythm of the slaughter volume; the upward movement of corn prices is limited, and attention should be paid to short opportunities; the price of sugar is expected to be bearish [53][55][56]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Conditions**: On Thursday, the A - share market rose in the morning and fell in the afternoon. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.46%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.87%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.08%. The main contracts of the four major stock index futures rose and fell differently, and most of the basis was at a discount [2][3]. - **News**: Domestically, the State Council issued a decision to modify the regulations on the entry and exit of foreigners. Overseas, the US Treasury Secretary made statements on issues such as drug tariffs, the sale of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac equity, and interest rate cuts [3][4]. - **Capital Flow**: On August 14, the trading volume of the A - share market reached 2.28 trillion. The central bank conducted 1287 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 320 billion yuan on the same day [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Sell put options on MO2509 at an appropriate time and maintain a moderately bullish attitude [6]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The yield of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally rose, and long - term bonds performed weaker [7]. - **Capital Flow**: The central bank conducted 1287 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 320 billion yuan on August 14. It is expected to conduct 5000 billion yuan of 6 - month reverse repurchase operations on August 15 to maintain capital stability [7][8]. - **Fundamentals**: In late July, China's M2 balance increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 5.6%, and M0 increased by 11.8%. The increase in RMB loans, deposits, and social financing scale in the first seven months was significant [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see in the short - term and focus on the tax - period capital situation and new bond issuance pricing. The 10 - year Treasury bond is expected to fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.75% [9]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Conditions**: The US PPI in July rebounded significantly year - on - year, and the first - time unemployment claims in the week of August 9 were slightly lower than expected. The prices of precious metals rose first and then fell. The international gold price fell 0.63%, and the international silver price fell 1.32% [10][12]. - **Future Outlook**: Although the market sentiment has been affected by trade agreements, the US economic data in July has deteriorated, and there is still a demand for hedging. It is recommended to construct a bullish spread portfolio through gold call options and hold long positions in silver or construct a bullish spread strategy using silver put options [12][13]. - **Capital Flow**: The weak US economy stimulates the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and the allocation funds have a high interest in precious metals. The positions of gold and silver ETFs are expected to increase [13]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Futures (EC) - **Spot Quotations**: As of August 15, the spot quotations of major shipping companies were provided [14]. - **Container Shipping Index**: As of August 11, the SCFIS European line index and the US West line index decreased. As of August 8, the SCFI composite index also decreased [14]. - **Fundamentals**: As of August 11, the global container capacity increased by 7.9% year - on - year. The eurozone's comprehensive PMI in July was 50.9, and the US manufacturing PMI in July was 48 [14]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The futures price is in a downward trend. It is expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to hold short positions in the 10 - contract [15]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: On August 14, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper decreased, and the average premium increased. Downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs [16]. - **Macro**: The US CPI in July increased moderately, and the market expected the probability of an interest rate cut in September to increase. Trump signed an extension of the Sino - US tariff truce for 90 days [16][19]. - **Supply**: The TC of copper concentrate increased slightly. The domestic electrolytic copper production in July increased significantly, and it is expected to decrease slightly in August [17]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of copper rod production decreased and increased respectively. The domestic demand was resilient, but it was under marginal pressure in Q3 [18]. - **Inventory**: COMEX and LME inventories increased, while domestic social inventories decreased [18]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: In the short - term, copper prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract referring to 78000 - 79500 [19]. Alumina - **Spot**: On August 14, the spot prices of alumina in different regions remained unchanged [19]. - **Supply**: In July, the production of metallurgical - grade alumina in China increased, and the operating capacity is expected to increase slightly in August [20]. - **Inventory**: On August 14, the port inventory decreased, and the registered volume of warehouse receipts increased [20]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and short at high levels in the medium - term, with the main contract operating in the range of 3000 - 3400 [21]. Aluminum - **Spot**: On August 14, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum decreased, and the average premium increased [22]. - **Supply**: In July, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased, and the proportion of molten aluminum decreased [22]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of downstream industries increased slightly [22]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum ingots increased, and the LME inventory also increased [23]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to be under pressure at high levels in the short - term, with the main contract referring to 20000 - 21000 [23]. Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: On August 14, the spot prices of aluminum alloy remained unchanged [24]. - **Supply**: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased, and it is expected to remain stable in August [24]. - **Demand**: In July, the demand was under pressure, and the market trading activity decreased [24]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory increased, and the inventories in some areas were close to full [25]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to fluctuate widely, with the main contract referring to 19400 - 20400 [25]. Zinc - **Spot**: On August 14, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots decreased, and the downstream demand was weak [25][26]. - **Supply**: The processing fees of zinc concentrate remained unchanged. The domestic refined zinc production in July increased significantly, and it is expected to increase further from January to August [26]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of primary processing industries were at a seasonal low, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was not high [27]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory increased, and the LME inventory decreased [28]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to fluctuate, with the main contract referring to 22000 - 23000 [28]. Tin - **Spot**: On August 14, the price of SMM 1 tin decreased, and the downstream procurement increased slightly [29]. - **Supply**: The domestic tin ore and tin ingot imports in June decreased. The actual tin ore output in Myanmar is expected to be delayed until the fourth quarter [29][30]. - **Demand and Inventory**: The operating rate of the soldering tin industry decreased in June. The LME inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased [30]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [31]. Nickel - **Spot**: On August 14, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel decreased [31]. - **Supply**: In July, the production of refined nickel increased, and the monthly production is expected to increase slightly [31]. - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating and alloys was stable, the demand for stainless steel was general, and the demand for nickel sulfate was under pressure [32]. - **Inventory**: The overseas inventory was high, the domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the bonded area inventory decreased [32]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract referring to 120000 - 126000 [33]. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: On August 14, the prices of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan decreased [34]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of nickel ore was stable, the price of nickel iron increased, and the price of ferrochrome was expected to be stable [34]. - **Supply**: The estimated production of stainless steel in August increased slightly [35]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased slowly, and the futures inventory increased [35]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly within a range, with the main contract referring to 13000 - 13500 [36]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: On August 14, the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased [37]. - **Supply**: In July, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and it is expected to increase in August. The supply is relatively sufficient, but the growth rate has slowed down [38]. - **Demand**: The demand is optimistic, and the demand in August is expected to increase [38]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory decreased slightly last week, with the upstream inventory decreasing and the downstream and other links replenishing inventory [39]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see cautiously and lightly go long at low prices. The price is expected to fluctuate in a bullish range around 85,000 [40]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The steel price decreased, and the basis strengthened [41]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost increased, but the steel price also increased, and the steel mill's profit increased [41]. - **Supply**: From January to July, the iron element production increased. In August, the production increased compared with July, and there is a pressure of inventory accumulation from August to September [42]. - **Demand**: From January to July, the apparent demand for five major steel products was basically the same year - on - year. The domestic demand decreased, and the foreign demand increased. Currently, the apparent demand has decreased [42]. - **Inventory**: This week, the inventory increased significantly, mainly in the hands of traders [43]. - **View**: The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the support levels of 3400 yuan for hot - rolled coils and 3200 yuan for rebar [44]. Iron Ore - **Spot**: On August 14, the prices of mainstream iron ore powders decreased [45]. - **Futures**: The prices of iron ore futures decreased [45]. - **Basis**: The basis of different iron ore varieties was provided [45]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output increased slightly, the blast furnace operating rate decreased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate increased slightly [45]. - **Supply**: This week, the global iron ore shipment and arrival volume decreased [46]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased slightly, the daily average dredging volume increased, and the steel mill's imported iron ore inventory increased [46]. - **View**: It is recommended to take profit on long positions and wait and see, and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore [46]. Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: The coking coal futures price peaked and fell back, and the price of some coal varieties in the spot auction loosened [47]. - **Supply**: The coal mine's operating rate decreased, and the output decreased slightly [47][48]. - **Demand**: The coking plant's operating rate increased slightly, and the downstream demand for iron water was high but may decrease in August [48]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory decreased, and the demand for downstream replenishment weakened [48]. - **View**: It is recommended to take profit on long positions and wait and see, and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore [49][50]. Coke - **Futures and Spot**: The coke futures price peaked and fell back, and the sixth - round price increase of coke was implemented. There is still an expectation of a seventh - round price increase [51][52]. - **Profit**: The coke enterprise's profit improved [51]. - **Supply**: The coking plant's operating rate increased due to the price increase [52]. - **Demand**: The demand for iron water was high but may decrease in August [52]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory decreased, and the downstream still had a demand for replenishment [52]. - **View**: It is recommended to take profit on long positions and wait and see, and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on iron ore [52]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal Products - **Spot Market**: The price of soybean meal decreased slightly, and the trading volume decreased. The price of rapeseed meal decreased, and the trading volume was 100 tons [53]. - **Fundamentals**: The US new - crop soybean export sales were higher than expected, and Brazil's soybean production, crushing volume, and export volume were all revised upwards [54]. - **Market Outlook**: The USDA monthly report supported the US soybean price, and the anti - dumping of Canadian rapeseed supported the rapeseed meal price. However, short - term profit - taking occurred, and it is recommended to close the position and wait and see. The overall trend is upward [55]. Live Pigs - **Spot Situation**: The spot price fluctuated strongly. The profit of different breeding models changed, and the average slaughter weight increased [56][57]. - **Market Outlook**: The current supply and demand are weak. The group's slaughter volume is expected to increase in August, and the later pig price is not optimistic. It is not recommended to blindly short the far - month 01 contract, and attention should be paid to the impact of hedging funds [57]. Corn - **Spot Price**: The spot price in some