来源：朝阳永续 | 载据来源:朝阳水续盘利预测载招房 贯币单位:亿元人民币 | | | | | | | 日時 香港電影 更多反境调测 展注朝阳水线会负责 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 机构面积了 | 发布日期 | 要业收入 | 125-5回比 | 净利润 | 同比 | 经调整净利润 | 同比 | | 实方预测区间 | | 268.97~303.47 | 0.6%-13.5% | 75.81~115.85 | -13.5%-32.2% | 84.54-99.78 | -12.7%~3.1% | | 平均收 | | 287.46 | 7.5% | 84.40 | -3.7% | 91.12 | -5.9% | | 中位数 | | 287,37 | 7.4% | 81.82 | -6.7% | 90.29 | -6.7% | | 第一上海证券 | 2025-12-09 | 292.77 | 9.5% | 77.22 | -11.9% | == | == | | 东方证券 | 2025-11-27 | 284.01 | 6.2% | 87. ...

1. 网易-S第四季度业绩预期怎么样？ 截至2025年12月10日，根据朝阳永续季度业绩前瞻数据： 预测公司Q4一致预期营业收入268.97~303.47亿元，同比增长0.6%~13.5%； 预测公司Q4一致预期净利润75.81~115.85亿元，同比变动-13.5%~32.2%； 预测公司Q4一致预期经调整净利润84.54~99.78亿元，同比变动-12.7%~3.1%。 关注后续财报数据披露后能否超预期，朝阳永续港股季度业绩前瞻数据将为投资者提供业绩鉴定。 华安证券认为：网易-S在25Q3实现收入283.6亿元，同比增长8.2%，毛利率64.1%，同比增加1.2个百分点。调整后净利润95.0亿元，同比增长26.7%，净利 率33.5%，同比增加4.9个百分点。游戏业务收入233亿，同比增长11.8%，得益于《梦幻西游》PC端、《逆水寒》等游戏收入增长。《梦幻西游》PC端最 高在线人数创新高，达358万。海外市场《命运：群星》登顶多地区下载榜，后续《暗黑破坏神IV》等游戏将陆续上线。有道业务收入16.3亿元，同比增 长3.6%，持续推进"AI+教育"布局，推出新一代有道AI答疑笔SpaceX。云音乐收入19 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 28.36 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 8.2% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 1.7% [1] - The adjusted net profit for Q3 reached 9.5 billion yuan, showing a year-over-year growth of 26.7% with a net profit margin of 33.5% [1] Group 1: Gaming and Related Services - The gaming and related services revenue for Q3 was 23.3 billion yuan, up 11.8% year-over-year, driven by growth in key titles such as "Dream of the Red Chamber" PC and "Nirvana in Fire" [1] - The peak online user count for "Dream of the Red Chamber" PC reached a record high of 3.58 million [1] - The company is expanding its global footprint with new game launches, including "Destiny: Stars" in August and upcoming titles like "Nirvana in Fire" and "Diablo IV" in December [1] Group 2: Youdao Business - Youdao's revenue for Q3 was 1.63 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 3.6% [1] - The company is advancing its "AI + Education" strategy, enhancing both hardware and software offerings [1] - A new AI-powered product, the Youdao AI Answering Pen SpaceX, is set to launch in August 2025, with a daily average of over 10 answers per user [1] Group 3: Cloud Music - Cloud Music reported a revenue of 1.96 billion yuan in Q3, down 1.8% year-over-year [2] - The company is enhancing user experience through AI-driven features, including the "AI Tuning Master" which allows for personalized audio adjustments [2] - The introduction of AI functionalities aims to enrich the platform's content ecosystem and improve user engagement [2] Group 4: Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 113.91 billion yuan for 2025, 124.63 billion yuan for 2026, and 134.92 billion yuan for 2027 [2] - The expected net profit (Non-GAAP) for the same years is 39.67 billion yuan, 42.26 billion yuan, and 46.08 billion yuan respectively [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company achieved revenue of 28.36 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 8.2% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 1.7% [4] - The gross profit for Q3 was 18.18 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 64.1%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points year-over-year [4] - Adjusted net profit reached 9.50 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 26.7% and a net margin of 33.5%, up 4.9 percentage points year-over-year [4] Revenue Breakdown - The gaming and related services revenue for Q3 was 23.3 billion yuan, up 11.8% year-over-year, driven by growth in key titles such as "Fantasy Westward Journey" and "Nirvana in Fire" [5] - The company continues to expand its global gaming footprint, with successful launches of new titles in overseas markets [5] AI and Education Initiatives - The Youdao segment reported revenue of 1.63 billion yuan in Q3, a year-over-year increase of 3.6%, focusing on the "AI + Education" strategy [6] - New AI-enabled hardware and software products have been introduced, enhancing the educational offerings [6] Cloud Music Developments - Cloud Music generated revenue of 1.96 billion yuan in Q3, a slight decline of 1.8% year-over-year, with AI features enhancing user experience [7] - The introduction of the "AI Tuner" feature aims to enrich the platform's content ecosystem [7] Financial Projections - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 113.91 billion yuan, 124.63 billion yuan, and 134.92 billion yuan, respectively [8] - Non-GAAP net profits for the same years are expected to be 39.67 billion yuan, 42.26 billion yuan, and 46.08 billion yuan [8] Key Financial Metrics - The company is expected to maintain a gross margin of around 64% over the next few years, with a projected return on equity (ROE) of 24% in 2025 [11] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to grow from 10.37 yuan in 2024 to 14.29 yuan in 2027 [11]

Core Insights - A new category of educational smart hardware, the Q&A pen, has emerged in the crowded education hardware market, with products launched by NetEase Youdao and Alpha Egg [2][3] - The Q&A pen is an upgraded version of the dictionary pen, featuring a larger size and enhanced functionalities, including comprehensive subject Q&A capabilities [2][3] Market Dynamics - The introduction of the Q&A pen by NetEase Youdao and Alpha Egg is closely linked to their existing strengths in dictionary pen product development, with both companies holding significant market shares [2][3] - The dictionary pen market is highly competitive and limited in size, with mainstream products priced below 500 yuan, while some white-label products are even below 200 yuan [2][3] Product Development - NetEase Youdao initiated the Q&A pen project in early 2024, recognizing that Q&A scenarios are more prevalent than translation, with Q&A functionality usage frequency exceeding translation by 30% [3] - The Q&A pen has gained initial market traction, with SpaceOne selling several thousand units and experiencing two stockouts, partly due to limited distribution and the popularity of DeepSeek [3][4] Competitive Landscape - The learning machine market is a key battleground in educational hardware, with products that support comprehensive learning for middle and primary school students [4] - The price of the newly launched SpaceX is lower than its predecessor SpaceOne, indicating a strategic move to differentiate from the rapidly growing learning machine market [4][5] User Demographics - The primary user base for learning machines consists of elementary school students, while the Q&A pen targets junior and senior high school students, focusing on problem-solving and error correction [5][6] Technological Advancements - The Q&A pen distinguishes itself from earlier models by incorporating a large model for automatic problem-solving, as opposed to relying solely on pre-existing solutions from a question bank [6][7] - The Q&A model app has been launched, but its monetization has faced challenges due to the availability of free alternatives like DeepSeek and Doubao [6][7] User Experience - While the large model for Q&A has a promising future, it currently lags behind traditional solutions in terms of user experience, particularly in real-time parsing and the quality of voice explanations [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the virtual assets sector, particularly following the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve, which has led to a rebound in virtual assets [1][3]. Core Insights - The enthusiasm for the revaluation of Chinese assets continues, with expectations of increased liquidity and valuation uplift for Chinese stocks, particularly in the context of upcoming earnings reports [3][16]. - The report highlights a strong performance in the gaming sector, projecting the Chinese gaming market to reach 29.1 billion yuan by July 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 8.14% and a year-on-year growth of 4.62% [2][19]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing trends in blockchain and virtual assets, suggesting that institutions in Greater China will actively seek related investments in Hong Kong stocks [3][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Education Sector - The education index increased by 1.83%, underperforming compared to major indices like the CSI 300 and the SSE 50 [12]. - Key players such as New Oriental and TAL Education saw declines of 1.86% and 4.98%, respectively, indicating competitive pressures in the K12 education sector [12][19]. 2. Luxury Goods - The S&P Global Luxury Goods Index rose by 3.82%, with notable performances from high-end brands like Hermes and Richemont [19]. - The report notes a significant decline in new store openings in the luxury sector, particularly in non-first-tier cities, which saw a 48% drop [26]. 3. Coffee and Tea Drinks - The coffee sector remains robust, with a notable increase in consumer demand, while the tea drink segment faces increased competition [5][25]. - The report highlights the performance of various coffee brands, with Luckin Coffee opening new stores and expanding its market presence [30]. 4. E-commerce - The Hang Seng Internet Technology Index showed a slight increase of 0.29%, with Pinduoduo and Dingdong Maicai leading in stock performance [31]. - Alibaba has restructured its business into four main divisions, aiming to enhance operational efficiency [35]. 5. Streaming Platforms - The report indicates a slight decline in the media index, with a focus on improving content supply for long-video platforms [32][40]. - The performance of major streaming services like iQIYI and Tencent Music varied, with iQIYI reporting a revenue decline of 11% [41]. 6. Virtual Assets & Internet Brokers - The global cryptocurrency market capitalization reached $412.39 billion, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices showing slight fluctuations [42]. - The report suggests a positive trend for virtual assets, with institutions increasingly entering the market [3][42]. 7. Real Estate Transactions - Recent data shows a continued decline in second-hand housing transactions in major cities, indicating ongoing pressure in the real estate market [36]. 8. Automotive Services - The report notes a rise in losses among automotive dealers, with a 52.6% loss ratio reported for the first half of the year [5]. 9. Media and Entertainment - The report highlights the implementation of new policies aimed at enriching content supply for television platforms, which may improve the industry's outlook [40]. 10. Overall Market Trends - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring market sentiment and the performance of key sectors, particularly in light of macroeconomic conditions and regulatory changes [3][5].