LME期铜收涨108美元，报10962美元/吨。LME期铝收跌4美元，报2859美元/吨。LME期锌收涨8美元， 报3026美元/吨。LME期铅收涨6美元，报2016美元/吨。LME期镍收跌2美元，报15361美元/吨。LME期 锡收涨30美元，报35802美元/吨。LME期钴收平美元，报48570美元/吨。 ...

先看原油，这次上涨不是"空穴来风"。一方面技术面早有"预警"，之前油价跌得太急，相对强弱指标连续一周都踩在"超卖"区间，就像人跑马拉松冲太猛 会岔气，回调修复本就是市场规律；另一方面美国政府刚公布的库存数据给了定心丸——原油库存少了约420万桶，降到9月底以来的最低，这直接浇灭 了一部分人对"供应过剩"的焦虑，而且数据和之前美国石油学会的预测能对上，可信度够高。 大家好，我是帮主郑重，干了20年财经记者，习惯从长线视角扒拉市场里的真逻辑。今天一早翻大宗商品盘面，不少朋友私信问：油价怎么突然涨了？ 黄金周二跌那么狠，今天还没缓过来？伦铜悄悄涨了又是为啥？别慌，咱今天就把这几件事的来龙去脉说清楚，不玩虚的，只讲实在逻辑。 沫"。而且渣打也说了，预计明年黄金还能重拾动能，所以不用因为这两天的波动乱了阵脚，长线投资者更该关注后续能不能稳住关键支撑位，而不是盯 着单日涨跌。 最后看伦铜，今天悄悄涨了0.37%，收在10663美元/吨，旁边的期铝、期锌也跟着涨了点，就期镍微跌了0.08%。这波上涨和"贸易担忧"有关——听说特朗 普政府在考虑限制软件出口，市场担心这会影响相关产业链，反而让基本金属的供需预期有了变化。不过伦 ...

伦敦时间10月15日17:00(北京时间10月16日00:00)，LME三个月期铜上涨63美元，或0.6%，收报每吨 10,641美元。 | | 10月15日 LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 金屋 | 收盘价 | 张跃 张跌幅 | | 三个月期铜 | 10.641.00 ↑ | +63.00 ↑ +0.60% | | 三个月期铝 | 2,746.00 ↑ | +8.50 ↑ +0.31% | | 三个月期锌 | 2,948.00 ↑ | +6.50 ↑ +0.22% | | 三个月期铅 | 1,982.50 T | +0.50 ↑ +0.03% | | 三个月期镇 | 15,194.00 ↑ | +59.00 ↑ +0.39% | | 三个月期锡 | 35,393.00 ↑ | +204.00 ↑ +0.58% | 数据来源：文华财经 对硬资产的投资流入，以及对印尼、刚果民主共和国和智利铜矿供应减少的担忧，使铜在10月9日创下 了11,000美元的16个月新高。 这些扰动大体已经耗尽了分析师在对2025年铜供需格局进行预估时所预留的意外生产事故余地。 摩 ...

10月14日（周二），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜收低，因市场对需求前景心存担忧。 伦敦时间10月14日17:00(北京时间10月15日00:00)，LME三个月期铜下跌242美元，或2.24%，收报每吨 10,578美元。 锌的升水则从周一的每吨202美元降至115美元。LME注册仓库中的锌库存处于自2023年初以来的最低 水平，引发市场对LME市场锌供应的担忧。LME此未予置评。 期铅和期镍价格分别触及9月10日和11日以来最低，期锌价格则触及9月30日以来最低。 LME三个月期锌下跌79.5美元，或2.63%，收报每吨2,941.5美元。 LME三个月期铅下跌7美元，或0.35%，收报每吨1,982.0美元。 | | 10月14日 LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 金屋 | 收盘价 | 张跃 张跃帽 | | 三个月期铜 | | 10,578.00 -242.00 -2.24% | | 三个月期铝 | 2,737.50 | -25.50 ↓ -0.92% | | 三个月期锌 | 2,941.50 J | -79.50 ↓ -2.63% | | 三个月期 ...

Core Viewpoint - LME copper prices experienced a decline after reaching a 16-month high, primarily due to profit-taking triggered by a stronger US dollar, overshadowing supply concerns from Chile and Indonesia [1][4]. Price Movements - LME three-month copper fell by $61, or 0.57%, closing at $10,654.50 per ton after hitting a peak of $10,800, marking a nearly 25% increase since early April [1][2]. - Other base metals showed mixed results: - Three-month aluminum rose by $15.50, or 0.57%, to $2,725.00 [2][6]. - Three-month zinc decreased by $27.50, or 0.91%, to $3,007.00 [2][7]. - Three-month lead dropped by $15.50, or 0.77%, to $2,004.50 [2][8]. - Three-month nickel increased by $49, or 0.32%, to $15,482.00 [2][9]. - Three-month tin fell by $657, or 1.75%, to $36,798.00 [2][10]. Market Influences - The recent rise in copper prices was partly attributed to the absence of the Chinese market during the Golden Week holiday, leading to increased selling by Chinese investors [4]. - A stronger US dollar, which rose by 0.4% to 98.11, made dollar-denominated metals more expensive for buyers using other currencies, prompting traders to close long positions [4]. - The ongoing US government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, including the September employment report, which may impact market sentiment [5]. Supply Concerns - Supply disruptions are expected to persist due to operational halts at Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia following a landslide, along with other interruptions at mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Chile [5].

Core Insights - LME copper prices reached a 16-month high on October 3, driven by supply tightness and a weakening dollar [1][4] - The three-month copper price increased by $225, or 2.14%, closing at $10,715.5 per ton, marking a weekly gain of 5.2%, the strongest since September 2024 [1][5] Price Movements - Three-month copper: $10,715.50, up $225.00 (+2.14%) [2] - Three-month aluminum: $2,709.50, up $17.00 (+0.63%) [2] - Three-month zinc: $3,034.50, up $14.00 (+0.46%) [2] - Three-month lead: $2,020.00, down $4.00 (-0.20%) [2] - Three-month nickel: $15,433.00, up $116.00 (+0.76%) [2] - Three-month tin: $37,455.00, up $567.00 (+1.54%) [2] Supply Dynamics - LME copper inventory dropped to 140,475 tons, the lowest level since early August [5] - Supply risks and potential delays in restoring supply have been highlighted as key market drivers [4]

Group 1 - LME copper prices fell on September 22, 2023, due to rising inventories and a weak global economy, although Chinese consumers' restocking and a softening dollar limited the decline [1][4] - As of September 22, LME three-month copper closed at $9,972.50 per ton, down $16.50 or 0.17% from the previous session [2] - Year-to-date, LME copper has increased by 14%, but has retreated from a 15-month high of $10,192.50 reached last week [4] Group 2 - Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a 12.5% increase in copper inventories, reaching 105,814 tons, the highest level since early June [4] - LME copper inventories have surged by 56% over the past three months [4] - Factors supporting copper prices include restocking by Chinese consumers ahead of the National Day holiday and a slight weakening of the dollar, making dollar-denominated commodities cheaper for buyers using other currencies [5][6] Group 3 - The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia, one of the largest copper mines globally, has been under production suspension since an accident in early September, providing additional support for copper prices [6] - Marex reported that short covering and other factors are driving zinc prices higher [7] - LME zinc inventories have been declining, leading to a rise in spot zinc prices, which reached a premium of $51 per ton over three-month zinc, the highest level since October 2024 [8] Group 4 - The International Aluminium Institute (IAI) reported that global primary aluminum production in August was 6.277 million tons, with a daily average production of 202,500 tons [9]

Group 1 - LME copper prices increased by $49, or 0.49%, closing at $9,989.0 per ton, driven by signs of improving demand from China ahead of the National Day holiday [1][2] - The copper price has decreased by 2% from a 15-month high of $10,192.50 due to profit-taking after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut [2] - The Yangshan copper premium, reflecting China's import demand, rose by 1.8% to $57 per ton [2] Group 2 - Citigroup forecasts copper prices to range between $9,500 and $10,500 per ton in Q4, with a potential rise to $12,000 by 2026, driven by a projected 2.9% increase in refined copper consumption next year [3] - The global copper market is expected to shift from a surplus of 63,000 tons this year to a shortage of 308,000 tons [3] Group 3 - LME aluminum prices fell by $13, or 0.48%, closing at $2,671.5 per ton, with a recent peak of $2,720 per ton due to a widening premium in the spot market [4] - The average price for aluminum in Q4 is expected to be around $2,650 [4] Group 4 - LME zinc prices decreased by $27.5, or 0.94%, closing at $2,889.0 per ton, with a significant drop in registered warehouse stocks indicating supply tightness [5] - Despite the tightness in registered stocks, the spot market for zinc remains adequately supplied [5] Group 5 - LME lead prices fell by $9.5, or 0.47%, closing at $1,996.5 per ton [6] - LME nickel prices decreased by $1, or 0.01%, closing at $15,271.0 per ton [7] - LME tin prices increased by $461, or 1.37%, closing at $34,172.0 per ton [7]

Group 1 - LME copper prices declined on September 16, 2023, after reaching a 15-month high, with a drop of $60 or 0.59%, closing at $10,126.5 per ton [1] - The previous day, copper prices peaked at $10,192.50 per ton, marking the highest level since June 2024 [1] - Traders noted that the rise in copper prices above the psychological level of $10,000 led to a wait-and-see approach from Chinese buyers [4] Group 2 - Other base metals showed mixed performance, with LME three-month aluminum rising by $16.5 or 0.61% to $2,717.0 per ton, and zinc increasing by $13 or 0.44% to $2,992.0 per ton [5] - LME three-month lead rose by $8 or 0.4% to $2,010.0 per ton, while nickel fell by $8 or 0.05% to $15,428.0 per ton [6][7] - LME three-month tin saw a significant increase of $242 or 0.7%, closing at $34,881.0 per ton [8] Group 3 - The market is closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with expectations of a rate cut putting pressure on the dollar [4] - A decrease in copper inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange has raised concerns about demand from China [4] - LME approved zinc inventories have decreased by 60% since mid-July, leading to worries about zinc supply in the LME market [4]

Core Insights - LME copper prices surged to a five-month high, driven by a weaker dollar and increased confidence in a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week [1][4]. Group 1: Copper Market - On September 11, LME three-month copper rose by $38.5, or 0.38%, closing at $10,051.5 per ton, with an intraday high of $10,062, marking the highest level since March 26 [1][5]. - Nitesh Shah from WisdomTree noted that disruptions in mining production are greater than expected, and capital expenditures for copper mining are insufficient to meet rising metal demand [4]. - The Freeport-McMoRan copper mine in Grasberg, one of the largest globally, has paused operations due to an underground incident [4]. Group 2: Other Base Metals - LME three-month aluminum increased by $48.5, or 1.85%, closing at $2,673.5 per ton [2][7]. - LME three-month zinc rose by $13.5, or 0.47%, closing at $2,900.0 per ton [2][8]. - LME three-month lead increased by $9.5, or 0.48%, closing at $1,996.5 per ton [2][9]. - LME three-month nickel rose by $4, or 0.03%, closing at $15,150.0 per ton [2][10]. - LME three-month tin increased by $92, or 0.27%, closing at $34,698.0 per ton [2][11].