12月17日（周三），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜上涨，交易商和投资者在美国劳动力市场数据喜忧 参半的背景下，评估供应短缺忧虑的影响。该数据显示11月就业增长反弹，但失业率仍处高位。 北京时间17:29，LME三个月期铜上涨0.89%，报每吨11,695.5美元。 上海期货交易所（SHFE）主力期铜日间收盘上涨0.40%，报每吨92,820元。 伦铜持续维持在每吨11,600美元以上，受供应忧虑及数据中心与能源转型带动需求激增的前景支撑。 其他金属方面，LME指标期铝上涨0.28%，至每吨2,884.5美元。沪铝上涨0.55%，至每吨21,915元。 LME其他金属中，三个月期锌上涨0.18%，报每吨3,047美元；三个月期锡上涨2.1%，至每吨41,885美 元；三个月期铅上涨0.44%，至每吨1,950.5美元。 上海金属中，沪锌主力合约下跌0.73%，至每吨22,970元；沪铅下跌0.83%，至每吨16,735元；沪锡上涨 1.73%，至每吨328,600元。 （文华综合） 铝价上涨，此前澳大利亚矿商South32周二表示，由于未能与莫桑比克政府达成电力协议，该公司将在 明年3月之前将其位于莫桑比克的M ...

Marex资深金属策略师Alastair Munro表示："进入年底和随着明年第一季度的到来，铜价仍将在盘中大 幅波动。" LME周一公布的库存数据显示，铜库存减少25吨或0.02%，至165,875吨，注销仓单占库存比为 39.43%。 一位交易商表示，LME的空头或看跌头寸在周三结算前被削减或展期。在LME注册仓库储存的165,875 吨铜中，约有39%被标记为准备交割。 与此同时，由于COMEX期铜上涨，本已创下历史新高的COMEX铜库存仍在持续增加。美国将精炼铜 排除在8月份生效的50%进口关税之外，但仍在对其进行审查。 芝商所发布的数据显示，12月12日COMEX铜库存达到450,618短吨，创历史新高水平。 12月15日（周一），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜周一在美元走软的支撑下上涨，但其他基本金属下 跌。 伦敦时间12月15日17:00(北京时间12月16日01:00)，LME三个月期铜上涨140.5美元，或1.22%，收报每 吨11,655.50美元。 | | 12月15日 LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 金屋 | 收盘价 | 茶跌 张跌 ...

（来源：要钢网） 今早伦镍暂运行在14750美元/吨附近，沪镍主力合约见至11.6万元/吨左右，上期所不锈钢期货主力合约 走至12550-12600元/吨上下，期镍红绿颇为震荡，上探力度不够强势，不锈期货横盘僵持在12500上方 后，盘中或有几番上触12600大关的机会，不过阻力也十分明显，有考验就有变数。 来源：市场资讯 现货方面，早间从锡佛两地了解，304民营四尺冷轧资源主流报至毛边12350-12600区间，两地明价徘徊 在12350-12400附近吆喝出货，而民营五尺热轧大板资源主流维持在毛边12200-12250左右，较窄幅起伏 的盘面不同，场内信心倒相对充足，不少商家挺价观望颇为乐观，高价买卖对峙，少部分商家则谨慎， 预期有上限。 201方面，冷热轧高位暂无明显调整，其中J1四尺冷轧资源锡佛主流报至毛边7800-7850区间，J2J5资源 走至7000-7050附近，代理领衔高位报价，商家跟进在左右。 综上，期镍内外红绿不一，不锈期货独红上探高位关口，卷板市场挺价心态占据，尽管买卖颇受考验， 但还是在如此氛围下释放些许刚需买单，总量远不及理想，好在能支撑各方继续观望，并随时灵活调整 应对。 ...

12月4日（周四），上海期货交易所期铜创下历史新高，主要受伦敦金属交易所(LME)注销仓单量激增 提振，这显示出中国以外地区供应收紧，同时市场对美联储本月内降息的预期不断增强。 上海期货交易所期铜主力2601合约上涨2.62%，报每吨91,300元，稍早盘中触及91,400元纪录高点。 周三伦敦金属交易所（LME）三个月期铜合约创下每吨11,540美元的历史新高。 伦敦期铜当前上涨0.2%，报每吨11,510.50美元。 LME三个月期锡下滑0.94%，报每吨40,395.00美元，稍早触及41,010美元，亦为2022年4月以来最高水 准。 LME其他金属方面，三个月期锌上涨0.11%，报每吨3,068.50美元，三个月期铅上涨0.05%，报每吨 2,000.00美元；三个月期铝上涨0.07%，报每吨2,899.00美元；三个月期镍上涨0.22%，报每吨14,905.00 美元。 嘉能可周三下调2026年铜产量预期，但仍预计到2035年产量将增长。 高盛将2026年上半年LME铜均价预期从此前的每吨10,415美元上调至10,710美元。 美元周四走势疲软，此前疲弱的经济数据强化了市场对美联储下周降息的预期 ...

12月3日（周三），伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜价周三创下历史新高，受美元走软、供应忧虑和LME注 册仓库供应紧张影响。 对美联储下周降息的预期升温，以及美元走软也支撑了基本金属的上行动能。 美元走软使得以美元计价的金属对使用其他货币的买家更具吸引力。与此同时，较低的利率改善了依赖 经济增长的金属前景。 嘉能可(Glencore)下调2026年铜产量预期，但表示计划到2035年实现160万吨的年产量目标，这得益于新 矿投产、旧矿复产以及运营效率提升。 三个月期铜收盘上涨342.50美元，或3.07%，报每吨11,487.50美元，盘中触及每吨11,540美元的纪录高 位。 | | 12月3日LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 令屋 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 三个月期铜 | 11487.50 | 1 342.50 | 1 3.07% | | 三个月期铝 | 2897.00 | 1 31.50 | ↑ 1. 10% | | 三个月期锌 | 3065.00 | 1 2.50 | 1 0.08% | | 三个月期铅 | 1999.00 ...

Core Insights - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper futures reached a historic high of over $11,200 per ton due to tightening metal supplies outside the U.S. and a weakening dollar [1][4]. Group 1: Copper Market Dynamics - On November 28, LME three-month copper rose by $249.5, or 2.28%, closing at $11,189.0 per ton, with an intraday peak of $11,210.50 [1][2]. - The increase in copper prices is attributed to refined copper inflows into the U.S., leading to supply tightness in other regions, supported by a favorable macroeconomic environment [4]. - The premium for copper from Chile's state-owned Codelco to U.S. customers reached a historic high, exceeding $500 per ton above LME prices, reflecting supply-demand fundamentals [5]. Group 2: Currency and Economic Factors - The weakening of the dollar, driven by market expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, has made dollar-denominated metals more affordable for holders of other currencies [5]. - The LME three-month tin price increased by $1,120, or 2.94%, reaching $39,161.0 per ton, amid concerns over supply disruptions from the Democratic Republic of the Congo [5]. Group 3: LME Fee Adjustments - The LME announced a revision of its fee structure, reducing customer trading and settlement fees by 7.4%-8.5%, effective January 1, 2026, with trading fee adjustments starting March 1, 2026 [6].

Core Viewpoint - LME copper prices declined due to concerns over weak demand, despite reaching a near one-month high in the previous trading session [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On November 27, LME three-month copper fell by $35.5, or 0.32%, closing at $10,939.5 per ton [1][2] - Other base metals also experienced price changes, with three-month aluminum down by $32.5 (1.14%), three-month zinc down by $41.5 (1.36%), while three-month lead and nickel saw slight increases [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Anticipation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December led to a peak copper price of $11,025 on November 26, the highest since October 30 [4] - Supply disruptions in mining contributed to a historical high of $11,200 for copper on October 29 [4] - The focus of the metal market shifted to weak demand from major consuming countries due to the U.S. market being closed for Thanksgiving [4] Group 3: Technical Analysis and Inventory - Technically, copper found support at the 21-day moving average cut-off of $10,813 [5] - Comex copper inventory reached 378,900 tons, continuing to rise from a historical high last week, while LME registered warehouse copper inventory reported at 157,175 tons, down 42% year-to-date [5] - Concerns about tight inventories outside the U.S. have intensified, with LME spot copper contracts showing a premium of $20 per ton at the end of Thursday [5]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices have reached a near one-month high, driven by expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December and a shift in metal flows to U.S. inventories, suggesting further price increases ahead [1]. Group 1: Copper Market Insights - On November 26, LME three-month copper rose by $157, or 1.45%, closing at $10,975.00 per ton, marking the highest level since October 30 [2]. - The copper price hit a historical high of $11,200 per ton on October 29, amid concerns over tightening supply from the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia [4]. - Ewa Manthey, a commodity strategist at ING, indicated that the upward risk for copper is increasing due to supply challenges, low inventories, and ongoing trade distortions, predicting a tightening supply-demand balance by 2026 [4]. - Nicholas Snowdon from Mercuria noted a surplus of 350,000 to 400,000 tons in the global cathode copper market this year, while there is a 500,000-ton deficit in copper concentrate, a situation expected to persist into next year [4]. - Snowdon emphasized that LME copper prices need to rise to attract copper back from the U.S. to the global market, where the U.S. currently holds 70% of global cathode copper inventories, potentially increasing to 90% by Q1 2026 [4]. - LME registered warehouse copper inventories have decreased by 42% this year, with significant metal flows directed to the New York Mercantile Exchange (Comex) [4]. Group 2: Other Base Metals Performance - LME three-month aluminum increased by $60.50, or 2.16%, closing at $2,861.00 [2]. - LME three-month zinc rose by $63.50, or 2.12%, closing at $3,056.50 [2]. - LME three-month lead decreased by $1.00, or 0.05%, closing at $1,979.50 [2]. - LME three-month tin increased by $444.00, or 1.18%, closing at $37,991.00, the highest since April 2, driven by fund activity and ongoing supply concerns [5].

Core Insights - LME copper prices reached a one-week high due to ongoing inventory outflows to the US [1][4] - The three-month copper contract rose by $45, or 0.42%, closing at $10,818 per ton [1][2] - LME copper inventory has decreased by 42% this year, contributing to a tight market [4] Price Movements - Three-month copper: $10,818.00, up $45.00 (0.42%) [2] - Three-month aluminum: $2,800.50, down $11.50 (-0.41%) [2] - Three-month zinc: $2,993.00, down $7.00 (-0.23%) [2] - Three-month lead: $1,980.50, down $3.50 (-0.18%) [2] - Three-month nickel: $14,872.00, up $173.00 (1.18%) [2] - Three-month tin: $37,547.00, up $163.00 (0.44%) [2] Market Dynamics - The outflow of copper inventory to COMEX has created a supply squeeze, raising concerns about potential US import tariffs [4] - The LME spot copper contract premium over the three-month forward rose to $25 per ton, the highest since mid-October [4] - The Yangshan copper premium, an indicator of Chinese copper import demand, fell by 6% to $32, a four-month low [4] Technical Analysis - LME copper has broken through the 21-day moving average resistance, which is now at $10,828 per ton [5] - Copper prices previously reached a historical high of $11,200 per ton due to supply concerns from the Grasberg mine [5] - Other LME metals showed mixed performance, with lead hitting a low not seen since October 20 [5]

11月21日（周五），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜自逾两周低点反弹，因美国降息希望重燃，提振市 场情绪。 伦敦时间11月21日17:00(北京时间11月22日01:00)，LME三个月期铜上涨39美元，或0.36%，收报每吨 10,777.5美元。盘中一度下跌1.2%，至每吨10,607.50美元，创下11月5日以来的最低水平。 洋山铜溢价已从本周初触及的四个月低点每吨32美元回升至34美元，这是衡量最大金属消费国中国铜进 口需求的指标。 国际铜研究组织（ICSG）称在最新月度公报中指出，全球精炼铜市场9月出现5.1万吨缺口，而8月尚有 4.1万吨盈余。 该机构称，今年前九个月市场呈现9.4万吨盈余，而去年同期盈余达31万吨。 LME三个月期镍下跌46美元，或0.32%，收报每吨14,455.0美元，盘中曾触及七个月新低。 （文华综合） | | 11月21日 LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 金屋 | 收盘价 | 张跃 张默帽 | | 三个月期铜 | 10,777.50 1 | +39.00 ↑ +0.36% | | 三个月期铝 | 2,786.00 | ...