Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Group 2: Report's Core View - The report constructs a multi - dimensional analysis framework based on long - term expectations, medium - term cycles, and short - term shocks to systematically sort out the core driving forces and future trends of US inflation [3]. - The Fed's "risk - management style" rate cuts will not restructure the inflation pattern as this round of cuts occurs in a non - recession environment and is more about maintaining economic resilience rather than causing a significant rebound in inflation [3]. - Long - term inflation expectations are anchored, and the Fed's independence remains a key stabilizer, with limited risk of long - term inflation getting out of control [3]. - Endogenous inflation momentum is slowing, and most structural sub - items show downward pressure, except for possible mild rebounds in durables and core services (excluding rent) inflation [3]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Inflation Analysis's Three - Dimensional Framework: Long - term Expectations, Core Dynamics, and Short - term Shocks - The Fed assesses inflation trends through a three - dimensional framework: long - term inflation expectations, core inflation, and short - term price shocks [11]. - Long - term inflation is anchored by monetary policy through expectations, core inflation's mid - term fluctuations are driven by the economic cycle, and external factors cause short - term disturbances [12]. - Long - term inflation expectations are the core pillar of the Fed's inflation management, core inflation reflects the domestic demand and labor market, and short - term shocks are usually temporary and exogenous [13]. - "Risk - management style" rate cuts generally do not lead to a significant inflation rebound based on historical experience and logical reasons [20][21]. 2. Is the Fed's Long - term Inflation Anchor Failing? - Although inflation has been persistently above the Fed's 2% target, the 5 - year/5 - year forward break - even inflation rate shows that the market's long - term inflation expectations remain stable [33]. - A quantitative model shows that the Fed's 2% inflation target has played a decisive role in guiding and stabilizing market expectations, and currently, the market may overestimate Trump's short - term impact on the Fed's independence [36][40]. 3. Reconstructing US Inflation Analysis: A Six - Sub - item Analysis Framework 3.1 Food and Beverage: Obvious Dual - Factor Drive of Commodity and Labor Costs - The cost of US food mainly concentrates on the middle and lower reaches of processing and circulation. The CRB food index and salary growth indicators are in a downward trend, so the food sub - item's upward momentum for overall inflation will weaken [3][51]. 3.2 Energy: Inflation Thrust Easing under Changing Supply - Demand Patterns - Energy has a significant impact on overall inflation. In 2025 - 2026, the global crude oil market's supply growth is expected to exceed demand, reducing the risk of a significant upward movement in US inflation [3][56][58]. 3.3 Rent: Lags US Housing Prices by about 15 Months - Rent is a key driver of CPI. In 2026, the year - on - year growth rate of rent is expected to slow to about 2.88%, leading to a 0.3% decline in overall inflation [3][71]. 3.4 Durables: May Face Some Upward Pressure in 2026 - Durables inflation may face upward pressure in 2026, but the pulling effect on inflation is expected to be mild due to the slowdown in the job market and consumer pressure [3][88]. 3.5 Non - durables: Obvious Cost - Driven Characteristics - Non - durables demand is rigid, and prices are mainly cost - driven. Based on the prediction of a decline in the crude oil price center in 2026, non - durables inflation is expected to cool down or fluctuate narrowly [91]. 3.6 Core Services: The Labor Market is the Core Driver - Core services inflation (excluding rent) is mainly driven by the labor market's tightness. Currently, the labor market is demand - driven, and there is no sustainable upward momentum for this type of inflation [3][111].

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong Broadband's total revenue for the fiscal year ending August 31, 2025, shows a strong performance with a year-on-year growth of 4% to HKD 11.129 billion, driven by core service revenue growth of 7% after excluding mobile and other product sales [1] Financial Performance - The company's EBITDA increased by 4% to HKD 2.451 billion, attributed to strong operational performance and strategic initiatives [1] - Adjusted free cash flow rose by 9% to HKD 677 million, due to the increase in EBITDA and a reduction in interest expenses and income taxes paid [1] - Net profit surged from HKD 10 million to HKD 207 million, primarily due to the growth in EBITDA and decreased financing costs [1] Dividend Policy - The board has decided to declare a final dividend of HKD 0.189 per share, up from HKD 0.165 per share in the fiscal year 2024, reflecting the company's commitment to creating long-term value for shareholders [1]

Core Viewpoints - In May, US inflation data showed a lower-than-expected month-on-month increase, with CPI rising by 0.1% compared to market expectations of 0.2% [3][4] - The core CPI also increased by 0.1% month-on-month, below the expected 0.3%, indicating a cooling in energy, core goods, and core services prices [3][4] - The impact of tariff policies is contributing to the current inflation dynamics, with businesses absorbing tariff costs and consumer demand showing signs of weakening [3][4][5] Inflation Data Summary - In May, the CPI year-on-year increased to 2.4% from 2.3%, while the core CPI remained stable at 2.8% for three consecutive months [2][4] - Food prices saw a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, while energy prices dropped by 1.0% due to OPEC+ production increases and trade concerns [5][6] - Core services prices decreased, with notable declines in accommodation, airfare, and entertainment services, reflecting reduced consumer discretionary spending [5][6] Sector-Specific Insights - Certain categories, such as appliances and healthcare products, have seen mild price increases, indicating a gradual response to tariff impacts [6] - The overall inflationary pressure is expected to manifest more significantly in the second half of the year as tariff effects become more pronounced [6][7] - The resilience of non-farm data suggests that the Federal Reserve may maintain a patient approach, with the first rate cut anticipated in September [7] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is likely to remain observant in the short term, with the potential for rate cuts later in the year as inflationary pressures are deemed manageable [7] - Current market expectations indicate two rate cuts by the end of the year, with the first expected in September [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the pressure on CPI due to insufficient consumer demand, predicting a low CPI in the first three quarters of 2025, with a significant rebound expected in Q4 2025 [1][6]. Group 1: CPI Core Parameters - Parameter 1: Food - Pork and beef are expected to face downward price pressure in 2025, with pork prices projected to drop from 17 CNY/kg in 2024 to around 15 CNY/kg, shifting from a positive to a negative contribution to CPI [2]. - Parameter 2: Oil - Oil prices are under downward pressure due to OPEC+ production increases and a weakening U.S. economy, with Brent crude oil prices expected to fall to the range of 70-75 USD/barrel in 2025, negatively impacting CPI [3]. - Parameter 3: Core Goods - The "old-for-new" policy is not expected to suppress core goods CPI, which is anticipated to rise moderately supported by further consumption promotion policies [4]. - Parameter 4: Core Services - The stabilization of rental prices is crucial, as rental prices have negatively impacted CPI since 2022, with a projected drag of approximately 0.03 percentage points in 2024 [5]. Group 2: CPI Forecasts - In a neutral scenario, the estimated CPI year-on-year averages for Q1 to Q4 of 2025 are -0.1%, -0.3%, -0.2%, and 0.8%, respectively, indicating a notable recovery in Q4 [6]. Group 3: Macro Economic Tracking - Recent PMI data shows a recovery compared to the previous month, but remains below the five-year average, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment, while non-manufacturing sectors have also seen a decrease [7].

Core Conclusion - This year remains a year where "price is more important than quantity," with a focus on CPI trends. The report highlights that due to base effects and the influence of food and energy prices, the CPI year-on-year may differ from current market expectations, but this does not imply increasing price pressure. Core CPI is expected to recover moderately [2][12]. Factors Influencing CPI Factor 1: Initial Monthly Changes Impacting New Price Increases - The initial monthly changes have a significant impact on new price increases for the entire year. For instance, the average monthly CPI for the first quarter is expected to be lower than last year, leading to lower new price increases compared to previous years [3][15]. Factor 2: Caution in Using Historical Seasonality for Food Prices - Recent fluctuations in food prices, particularly outside of pork, necessitate caution in applying historical seasonality to predict current trends. For example, vegetable prices may be affected by abnormal weather patterns, and pork prices are expected to remain lower than last year due to increased supply [4][16][17]. Factor 3: Potential Decline in Oil Prices - Oil prices are expected to decrease, which will directly affect transportation fuel prices. A 10% change in international oil prices could impact CPI by approximately 0.2 percentage points. Current forecasts suggest a significant drop in oil price averages compared to last year [8][24]. Factor 4: Moderate Recovery of Core CPI - Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is anticipated to recover slowly. Factors influencing this include rental prices, core goods, and core services. The recovery of rental prices is contingent on improvements in employment and income levels [9][25][26]. Outlook for CPI Trends - The CPI trend for the latter part of the year is expected to be weak. Factors contributing to this include a continued loose supply of pork, potential weakness in food prices outside of pork, and a likely decrease in oil prices. Core CPI is expected to recover moderately, contingent on significant economic recovery [12][30].