以下文章来源于高瑞东宏观笔记 ，作者高瑞东 刘星辰 高瑞东宏观笔记 . 对全球宏观和金融市场的思考 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 考虑到非农数据仍保持韧性，关税政策对经济的传导存在滞后影响，预计美联储仍将保持耐心观察，短期内降 息紧迫性不强。但目前来看，关税政策对通胀的冲击更可能是一次性的，全面涨价的风险也相对可控，年内降 息仍然是可选项。当前市场多数预期首次降息时点为9月，年内共降息两次。 一、5月美国通胀环比读数低于市场预期 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件： 1）5月美国CPI同比+2.4%，前值+2.3%，市场预期+2.4%；2）季调后CPI环比+0.1%，前值+0.2%，市场预期 +0.2%；3）核心CPI同比+2.8%，前值+2.8%，市场预期+2.9%；4）季调后核心C ...

Group 1: CPI Overview - The US CPI for April decreased slightly to 2.3% year-on-year, down from 2.4%, below Bloomberg's expectation of 2.4%[1] - Core CPI remained stable at 2.8%, matching Bloomberg's forecast[1] - CPI month-on-month increased by 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3%[1] Group 2: Structural Analysis of CPI - Food prices fell from 0.4% to -0.1% month-on-month, reducing its contribution to CPI from 0.06 percentage points to -0.01[2] - Energy prices rose from -2.4% to 0.7%, contributing 0.04 percentage points to CPI, up from -0.15[2] - Core goods prices increased from -0.1% to 0.1%, contributing 0.01 percentage points to CPI, up from -0.02[3] Group 3: Federal Reserve's Stance - The inflation performance supports the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see approach, as the economy shows no signs of stagflation[4] - The Fed is unlikely to cut rates until there is clear evidence of deteriorating employment or consumer spending data[5] - Current market expectations suggest the first rate cut may occur in September, with a total of two cuts anticipated for the year[5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), highlighting that the CPI has been slightly below market expectations for two consecutive months, indicating a potential easing of inflationary pressures [2][5][9]. CPI Overview - In April, the CPI year-on-year decreased from 2.4% to 2.3%, below Bloomberg's expectation of 2.4%, while the core CPI remained steady at 2.8% [2][9]. - The CPI and core CPI have reached their lowest levels since the second quarter of 2021 [2][9]. - Month-on-month, the CPI increased by 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3%, and the previous value of -0.1% [2][9]. Structural Analysis of CPI - The month-on-month increase in CPI was primarily influenced by low base effects, with energy, core goods, and super core services prices shifting from decline to increase [3][12]. - Food prices saw a significant drop, with a month-on-month change from 0.4% to -0.1%, largely due to the fading impact of avian influenza, leading to a 12.7% decrease in egg prices [3][12]. - Energy prices rebounded from -2.4% to 0.7%, driven by a 3.7% increase in gas service prices, despite a slight decrease in gasoline prices [3][12][13]. - Core goods prices shifted from -0.1% to 0.1%, with contributions from furniture, medical supplies, and entertainment goods [4][13]. - Rent growth remained stable, with primary residence rent unchanged at 0.3% [4][13]. - Super core services prices increased from -0.24% to 0.21%, with significant contributions from hotel accommodations and car rentals [4][14]. Federal Reserve's Stance - The current economic fundamentals in the US appear healthy, with no evident signs of stagflation, and private sector consumption demand remains strong [5][16]. - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a "wait and see" approach, as inflation has been stable and slightly below expectations for two months [5][16][17]. - Despite a significant reduction in tariffs between the US and China, the overall tariff rate remains high at nearly 41%, creating uncertainty in future negotiations [5][16][17]. - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have been adjusted, with the first anticipated cut now pushed to September [17]. Market Reactions - Following the Geneva talks between the US and China, a "risk on" mode was observed in the market, although caution is advised regarding the optimism surrounding tariff negotiations [6][17]. - The CPI report has led to stable market expectations for interest rate cuts, with the futures market slightly adjusting the anticipated number of cuts for the year [17].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the pressure on CPI due to insufficient consumer demand, predicting a low CPI in the first three quarters of 2025, with a significant rebound expected in Q4 2025 [1][6]. Group 1: CPI Core Parameters - Parameter 1: Food - Pork and beef are expected to face downward price pressure in 2025, with pork prices projected to drop from 17 CNY/kg in 2024 to around 15 CNY/kg, shifting from a positive to a negative contribution to CPI [2]. - Parameter 2: Oil - Oil prices are under downward pressure due to OPEC+ production increases and a weakening U.S. economy, with Brent crude oil prices expected to fall to the range of 70-75 USD/barrel in 2025, negatively impacting CPI [3]. - Parameter 3: Core Goods - The "old-for-new" policy is not expected to suppress core goods CPI, which is anticipated to rise moderately supported by further consumption promotion policies [4]. - Parameter 4: Core Services - The stabilization of rental prices is crucial, as rental prices have negatively impacted CPI since 2022, with a projected drag of approximately 0.03 percentage points in 2024 [5]. Group 2: CPI Forecasts - In a neutral scenario, the estimated CPI year-on-year averages for Q1 to Q4 of 2025 are -0.1%, -0.3%, -0.2%, and 0.8%, respectively, indicating a notable recovery in Q4 [6]. Group 3: Macro Economic Tracking - Recent PMI data shows a recovery compared to the previous month, but remains below the five-year average, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment, while non-manufacturing sectors have also seen a decrease [7].

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 付春生(18482259975) 报告摘要 核心结论： 今年依然是"价比量重要"的一年，本篇报告重点关注 CPI 走势。我们提示， 由于基数效应 （去 年三季度高温多雨天气因素导致农产品涨幅明显超季节性，暖冬天气导致今年前 2 个月农产品涨幅低于季 节性） 以及食品 （近几年整体供给充足，典型是肉类） 和能源价格 （油价的外生性冲击） 的影响 ， 今 年 CPI 同比可能与市场目前预期存在预期差，但并不意味物价压力在边际增大，核心 CPI 依然是温和回升 的。需重点跟踪影响今年后期 CPI 的环比因子： 1 ）二季度的猪价； 2 ）三季度的农产品价格； 3 ）油价 的下行幅度； 4 ）核心 CPI 修复力度的强弱，其中 3 月份需求脉冲下的房租表现值得关注 。 影响今年 CPI 的因素之一：年初环比对新涨价因素的拖累较大 当年每个月的环比，影响的是当年当月及以后月份的新涨价因素，年初的环比对全年新涨价因素影响最 大。比如 2017 年、 2018 年、 2022 年， CPI 环比月均值都为 0.15% ...