以下文章来源于高瑞东宏观笔记 ，作者高瑞东 刘星辰 高瑞东宏观笔记 . 对全球宏观和金融市场的思考 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 考虑到非农数据仍保持韧性，关税政策对经济的传导存在滞后影响，预计美联储仍将保持耐心观察，短期内降 息紧迫性不强。但目前来看，关税政策对通胀的冲击更可能是一次性的，全面涨价的风险也相对可控，年内降 息仍然是可选项。当前市场多数预期首次降息时点为9月，年内共降息两次。 一、5月美国通胀环比读数低于市场预期 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件： 1）5月美国CPI同比+2.4%，前值+2.3%，市场预期+2.4%；2）季调后CPI环比+0.1%，前值+0.2%，市场预期 +0.2%；3）核心CPI同比+2.8%，前值+2.8%，市场预期+2.9%；4）季调后核心C ...

Group 1: CPI Overview - The US CPI for April decreased slightly to 2.3% year-on-year, down from 2.4%, below Bloomberg's expectation of 2.4%[1] - Core CPI remained stable at 2.8%, matching Bloomberg's forecast[1] - CPI month-on-month increased by 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3%[1] Group 2: Structural Analysis of CPI - Food prices fell from 0.4% to -0.1% month-on-month, reducing its contribution to CPI from 0.06 percentage points to -0.01[2] - Energy prices rose from -2.4% to 0.7%, contributing 0.04 percentage points to CPI, up from -0.15[2] - Core goods prices increased from -0.1% to 0.1%, contributing 0.01 percentage points to CPI, up from -0.02[3] Group 3: Federal Reserve's Stance - The inflation performance supports the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see approach, as the economy shows no signs of stagflation[4] - The Fed is unlikely to cut rates until there is clear evidence of deteriorating employment or consumer spending data[5] - Current market expectations suggest the first rate cut may occur in September, with a total of two cuts anticipated for the year[5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), highlighting that the CPI has been slightly below market expectations for two consecutive months, indicating a potential easing of inflationary pressures [2][5][9]. CPI Overview - In April, the CPI year-on-year decreased from 2.4% to 2.3%, below Bloomberg's expectation of 2.4%, while the core CPI remained steady at 2.8% [2][9]. - The CPI and core CPI have reached their lowest levels since the second quarter of 2021 [2][9]. - Month-on-month, the CPI increased by 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3%, and the previous value of -0.1% [2][9]. Structural Analysis of CPI - The month-on-month increase in CPI was primarily influenced by low base effects, with energy, core goods, and super core services prices shifting from decline to increase [3][12]. - Food prices saw a significant drop, with a month-on-month change from 0.4% to -0.1%, largely due to the fading impact of avian influenza, leading to a 12.7% decrease in egg prices [3][12]. - Energy prices rebounded from -2.4% to 0.7%, driven by a 3.7% increase in gas service prices, despite a slight decrease in gasoline prices [3][12][13]. - Core goods prices shifted from -0.1% to 0.1%, with contributions from furniture, medical supplies, and entertainment goods [4][13]. - Rent growth remained stable, with primary residence rent unchanged at 0.3% [4][13]. - Super core services prices increased from -0.24% to 0.21%, with significant contributions from hotel accommodations and car rentals [4][14]. Federal Reserve's Stance - The current economic fundamentals in the US appear healthy, with no evident signs of stagflation, and private sector consumption demand remains strong [5][16]. - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a "wait and see" approach, as inflation has been stable and slightly below expectations for two months [5][16][17]. - Despite a significant reduction in tariffs between the US and China, the overall tariff rate remains high at nearly 41%, creating uncertainty in future negotiations [5][16][17]. - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have been adjusted, with the first anticipated cut now pushed to September [17]. Market Reactions - Following the Geneva talks between the US and China, a "risk on" mode was observed in the market, although caution is advised regarding the optimism surrounding tariff negotiations [6][17]. - The CPI report has led to stable market expectations for interest rate cuts, with the futures market slightly adjusting the anticipated number of cuts for the year [17].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the pressure on CPI due to insufficient consumer demand, predicting a low CPI in the first three quarters of 2025, with a significant rebound expected in Q4 2025 [1][6]. Group 1: CPI Core Parameters - Parameter 1: Food - Pork and beef are expected to face downward price pressure in 2025, with pork prices projected to drop from 17 CNY/kg in 2024 to around 15 CNY/kg, shifting from a positive to a negative contribution to CPI [2]. - Parameter 2: Oil - Oil prices are under downward pressure due to OPEC+ production increases and a weakening U.S. economy, with Brent crude oil prices expected to fall to the range of 70-75 USD/barrel in 2025, negatively impacting CPI [3]. - Parameter 3: Core Goods - The "old-for-new" policy is not expected to suppress core goods CPI, which is anticipated to rise moderately supported by further consumption promotion policies [4]. - Parameter 4: Core Services - The stabilization of rental prices is crucial, as rental prices have negatively impacted CPI since 2022, with a projected drag of approximately 0.03 percentage points in 2024 [5]. Group 2: CPI Forecasts - In a neutral scenario, the estimated CPI year-on-year averages for Q1 to Q4 of 2025 are -0.1%, -0.3%, -0.2%, and 0.8%, respectively, indicating a notable recovery in Q4 [6]. Group 3: Macro Economic Tracking - Recent PMI data shows a recovery compared to the previous month, but remains below the five-year average, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment, while non-manufacturing sectors have also seen a decrease [7].

Core Conclusion - This year remains a year where "price is more important than quantity," with a focus on CPI trends. The report highlights that due to base effects and the influence of food and energy prices, the CPI year-on-year may differ from current market expectations, but this does not imply increasing price pressure. Core CPI is expected to recover moderately [2][12]. Factors Influencing CPI Factor 1: Initial Monthly Changes Impacting New Price Increases - The initial monthly changes have a significant impact on new price increases for the entire year. For instance, the average monthly CPI for the first quarter is expected to be lower than last year, leading to lower new price increases compared to previous years [3][15]. Factor 2: Caution in Using Historical Seasonality for Food Prices - Recent fluctuations in food prices, particularly outside of pork, necessitate caution in applying historical seasonality to predict current trends. For example, vegetable prices may be affected by abnormal weather patterns, and pork prices are expected to remain lower than last year due to increased supply [4][16][17]. Factor 3: Potential Decline in Oil Prices - Oil prices are expected to decrease, which will directly affect transportation fuel prices. A 10% change in international oil prices could impact CPI by approximately 0.2 percentage points. Current forecasts suggest a significant drop in oil price averages compared to last year [8][24]. Factor 4: Moderate Recovery of Core CPI - Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is anticipated to recover slowly. Factors influencing this include rental prices, core goods, and core services. The recovery of rental prices is contingent on improvements in employment and income levels [9][25][26]. Outlook for CPI Trends - The CPI trend for the latter part of the year is expected to be weak. Factors contributing to this include a continued loose supply of pork, potential weakness in food prices outside of pork, and a likely decrease in oil prices. Core CPI is expected to recover moderately, contingent on significant economic recovery [12][30].