国家统计局数据显示，初步核算，2018年上半年我国国内生产总值418961亿元，按可比价格计算，同比 增长6.8%。分季度看，一季度同比增长6.8%，二季度增长6.7%。 贾康认为，我国宏观经济运行如果从平台来看，从2015年下半年开始的，到现在已经三年之久，12个季 度在平台状运行，如果不出大的意外，稍微往下调整以后，仍然有望延续这种由新入常的平台运行状 态。 未来宏观经济发展的重点何在？贾康认为，进一步扩大内需、中国可选择的聪明投资或有效投资，有巨 大潜能空间，要坚定不移地全面扩大开放等方面是发展要点。 每经记者｜张钟尹 每经编辑｜毕陆名 7月21日，华夏新供给经济学研究院、中国新供给经济学50人论坛在青岛举行以"新供给、新金融：助推 高质量发展"为主题的2018年第二季度宏观经济形势分析会。 华夏新供给经济学研究院首席经济学家贾康在分析会上表示，下半年和今后的不确定性主要来自外部的 冲击和影响，对连锁反应是值得特别关注的，十分敏感的股市和汇市，可能会比实际上应该客观估量的 影响表现为升级状态。 在指出这些不确定性的同时，贾康也十分强调确定性。他强调，从全局和长远来看，这些不确定性旁 边，的确还有确定性。 ...

Core Insights - The October CPI data exceeded expectations, drawing significant market attention, particularly in the consumer sector [1] - The two main factors contributing to the low CPI performance in 2025 are food and crude oil prices [1] - Core CPI performance significantly surpassed market expectations, with core goods prices rising notably more than core services [1] - Other goods and services, mainly jewelry, and durable consumer goods were the most unexpected contributors to the CPI increase [1] - For 2026, considering the marginal changes in household balance sheets and potential reductions in government subsidies, the neutral scenario forecasts core CPI and overall CPI year-on-year growth rates at 0.8% each [1] - In terms of macroeconomic performance, both supply and demand sides showed a decline in October, and the effectiveness of new policy financial tools will require time to materialize [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Great Wall Asset Management Co., Ltd. reported a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, largely due to non-operating income, despite a decrease in total assets and operating revenue [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - As of the end of September, total assets amounted to 467.16 billion yuan, a decrease of 163.76 billion yuan or 26% from the end of June [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.443 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 80% compared to 796 million yuan in the same period last year [3]. - Operating revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 8.590 billion yuan, down from 13.207 billion yuan in 2024, while operating expenses rose to 17.545 billion yuan from 12.562 billion yuan in 2024 [3]. Asset Transfer and Management Changes - The increase in net profit is significantly related to the planned transfer of equity in Changjiang Huaxi Bank, with a total stake of 40.92% being offered at a base price of 4.332 billion yuan [4]. - Following the transfer, the consolidated balance sheet is expected to contract, impacting profitability due to the management of Changjiang Huaxi Bank on a consolidated basis [5]. Ownership and Capital Structure - The company was established in 1999 to address financial risks and promote the reform of state-owned banks and enterprises, with an initial registered capital of 10 billion yuan [5]. - In April 2025, the Ministry of Finance transferred all its shares to Central Huijin Investment, changing the controlling shareholder to Central Huijin, which holds a 94.34% stake [5]. - The registered capital was reduced to 10 billion yuan to cover previous losses, followed by an increase of 36.8 billion yuan from Central Huijin, bringing the total registered capital to 46.8 billion yuan [5]. Future Outlook - Central Huijin's role as a significant financial investment platform may enhance the company's resource integration and operational efficiency, potentially leading to new business opportunities [6]. - The diversified operations of the company pose challenges for risk management, especially under stricter financial regulations and a sluggish macroeconomic environment [6].

Core Viewpoint - China's GDP growth for the first three quarters of the year is 5.2%, indicating a stable and progressive economic development despite various pressures [1][3][5]. Economic Performance - The GDP for the first three quarters is 10,150.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2%, an acceleration of 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous year, and an economic increment of 396.79 billion yuan, which is 136.8 billion yuan more than the previous year [3]. - The industrial added value for large-scale industries increased by 6.2%, while the manufacturing sector grew by 6.8% [3]. - Retail sales of consumer goods reached 3,658.77 billion yuan, growing by 4.5%, with service retail sales increasing by 5.2% [3]. - Manufacturing investment saw a rapid growth of 4.0% year-on-year [3]. Employment and Prices - The urban survey unemployment rate remained stable compared to the first half of the year [3]. - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) has seen an expanding growth for five consecutive months, indicating effective policies to expand domestic demand and promote consumption [3]. International Trade - China's foreign trade demonstrated resilience, with total goods trade value reaching 33.61 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4% [3]. - The exchange rate of the renminbi has remained stable and has shown an upward trend [3]. High-Quality Development - The proportion of added value from equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing in large-scale industries reached 35.9% and 16.7%, respectively [7]. - Non-fossil energy consumption as a percentage of total energy consumption increased by approximately 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - New export drivers have emerged, with double-digit growth in the export of "new three samples" products [7]. Consumer Behavior - Significant growth in cultural, tourism, and sports-related consumption was noted, with an estimated 888 million domestic trips during the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays, showcasing the resilience and vitality of the economy [11].

Group 1: Market Data Summary - DR001 closed at 1.32 with a -15.67bp change, DR007 at 1.53 with a -7.04bp change, GC001 at 1.36 with a -13.50bp change, and GC007 at 0.00 with a -187.00bp change [4] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.58 with a 0.40bp change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with a 0.00bp change [4] - 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Chinese treasury bonds closed at 1.39 (-1.00bp), 1.63 (-0.73bp), and 1.88 (-0.78bp) respectively, while 10 - year US treasury bonds closed at 4.20 with a 2.00bp change [4] - Last week, the central bank conducted 2467.4 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations and 600 billion yuan in MLF operations, with 1826.8 billion yuan in reverse repurchase and 300 billion yuan in 1 - year MLF maturing, resulting in a net injection of 940.6 billion yuan [4] - This week, 516.6 billion yuan in reverse repurchase will mature, with 240.5 billion and 276.1 billion maturing on Monday and Tuesday respectively, and 300 billion yuan in 182 - day buy - out reverse repurchase maturing on Tuesday [5] Group 2: Stock Index Market - The closing prices and changes of major stock indices: CSI 300 at 4550 (-0.95%), SSE 50 at 2941 (-0.40%), CSI 500 at 7241 (-1.37%), and CSI 1000 at 7398 (-1.45%) [6] - The closing prices and changes of index futures contracts: IF at 4543 (-0.9%), IH at 2945 (-0.3%), IC at 7203 (-1.2%), and IM at 7357 (-1.2%) [6] - Trading volume and open interest changes: IF volume decreased by 9.3% to 121085, IH volume decreased by 6.9% to 48226, IC volume increased by 4.9% to 136035, and IM volume increased by 14.2% to 242990; IF open interest decreased by 2.4% to 259924, IH open interest increased by 1.1% to 95988, IC open interest increased by 1.4% to 252224, and IM open interest increased by 3.3% to 364864 [6] - Last week, CSI 300 fell 0.44% to 4501.9, SSE 50 fell 1.98% to 2909.7, CSI 500 rose 0.32% to 7170.3, and CSI 1000 rose 0.21% to 7438.2; only the power equipment (3.9%) and electronics (3.5%) sectors in the Shenwan primary industry index rose, while banking (-0.5%), non - ferrous metals (-3.5%), non - banking finance (-0.1%), steel (-1.1%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (-2%) led the decline [6] - As of September 25, the margin trading balance in the A - share market was 2436.61 billion yuan, an increase of 46.18 billion yuan from the previous week [6] Group 3: Market Outlook and Analysis - The central bank governor stated that China's monetary policy adheres to a self - centered approach while considering internal and external balance, and will use various monetary policy tools to ensure sufficient liquidity [5] - Recently, the macro news has been calm, and the stock index has been oscillating; due to poor domestic economic data, there is a stronger expectation for policies to promote consumption, stabilize the real estate market, and expand fiscal spending [7] - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China will be held in October, focusing on formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan and analyzing the current economic situation, which is worthy of attention [7] - The stock index trend remains bullish, but the policy aims to guide the A - share market to a "slow - bull" pattern, and it is recommended to adjust and go long, while controlling positions before the holiday [7] Group 4: Index Futures Premium and Discount - IF premium/discount rates: 0.00% for the current - month contract, 2.62% for the next - month contract, 2.45% for the current - quarter contract, and 2.31% for the next - quarter contract [8] - IH premium/discount rates: -2.73% for the current - month contract, -0.50% for the next - month contract, -0.51% for the current - quarter contract, and -0.04% for the next - quarter contract [8] - IC premium/discount rates: 10.16% for the current - month contract, 9.81% for the next - month contract, 9.89% for the current - quarter contract, and 9.76% for the next - quarter contract [8] - IM premium/discount rates: 10.54% for the current - month contract, 11.55% for the next - month contract, 12.54% for the current - quarter contract, and 12.13% for the next - quarter contract [8]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) maintains a supportive monetary policy stance to foster economic recovery and stabilize financial markets in light of global monetary trends, particularly following the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Response - The global financial market had anticipated the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, resulting in a relatively stable market reaction [1]. - The US dollar index remains around 97, with international capital markets generally trending upwards, while commodity markets are experiencing fluctuations downward [1]. - China's major financial markets, including stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange, are operating steadily [1]. Group 2: Future Monetary Policy Directions - The PBOC plans to utilize various monetary policy tools based on macroeconomic conditions and changes in the economic landscape to ensure ample liquidity [2]. - The focus will be on reducing the overall financing costs in society, supporting consumption, and expanding effective investment to reinforce economic recovery [2]. - The PBOC aims to maintain the stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level [2].

Core Insights - The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates that in July, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 38,780 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.7% but a month-on-month decline of 0.14% [1] - From January to July, the total fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) amounted to 288,229 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. When excluding real estate development investment, the growth rate of fixed asset investment was 5.3% [1] - Chief Macro Analyst Wang Qing from Dongfang Jincheng suggests that the economic growth momentum in August may continue to reflect the weaker state observed in July, indicating that new significant incremental measures in macro policy may be introduced around the beginning of the fourth quarter to stabilize the macroeconomic operation and employment market [1]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Policy and Growth - The macroeconomic policy will intensify monetary and fiscal efforts to promote stable economic growth and maintain reasonable price levels in the second half of the year [1] - The external environment is becoming increasingly complex, with weakening global economic growth and rising trade barriers [1] - Domestic demand expansion and technological innovation will be prioritized to effectively respond to external changes [1] Group 2: New Productive Forces - Strategic emerging industries accounted for over 13% of GDP in 2023, expected to exceed 17% by 2025 [2] - The semiconductor industry is projected to reach a market size of over $180 billion by 2025, with a domestic production rate of 50% [2] - The AI sector is rapidly developing, with significant advancements in domestic models and applications across various fields [2] - The photovoltaic industry continues to thrive with ongoing technological innovations and cost reductions [2] - The new energy vehicle market saw production and sales growth of 45.2% and 44% respectively from January to May [2] - The biopharmaceutical industry is expected to grow by approximately 15% year-on-year by mid-2025 [2] Group 3: Consumption Recovery - Social retail sales grew by 5% year-on-year from January to May 2025, an increase from 3.5% at the end of 2024 [4] - Policies like "trade-in" have significantly boosted consumption, while some sectors face structural sales slowdowns [4] - Consumer demand is expected to continue its upward trend in the second half of the year, with a projected annual growth of about 6% in retail sales [5] Group 4: Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 3.7% year-on-year from January to May 2025 [6] - Investment in high-tech manufacturing and infrastructure is expected to maintain a strong growth rate, contributing significantly to overall investment growth [7] - Infrastructure investment is projected to grow by 6% for the year, driven by government funding and local initiatives [8] Group 5: Real Estate Market - The real estate market is in a long-term bottoming phase, with a 10.7% year-on-year decline in real estate development investment from January to May [9] - The market is expected to continue its contraction, with a projected 5% decline in sales area for the year [10] - Government policies are expected to support the market, but challenges remain due to high debt levels among developers [10] Group 6: Export Outlook - China's exports are projected to grow by about 5% in the first half of the year, despite tariff pressures from the U.S. [11] - The export outlook for the second half is complex, with potential scenarios ranging from stable to a decline of up to 7% depending on U.S. tariff policies [12][13] Group 7: Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy has become more proactive, with significant government bond issuance and an increase in budgetary spending [14] - The fiscal deficit is set at 4.0%, with a focus on expanding investment and stabilizing trade [15] Group 8: Monetary Policy - The monetary policy remains "appropriately loose," with significant liquidity support and interest rate adjustments [16] - The central bank is expected to further lower interest rates and reserve requirements to stimulate economic growth [18] Group 9: Economic Pressures - Despite improvements in economic growth, domestic demand remains weak, with ongoing deflationary pressures [19] - The overall economic environment is expected to face challenges, including high inventory levels and structural overcapacity [20]

Group 1: Trade Relations and Currency Impact - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce is evaluating the possibility of initiating trade negotiations with the U.S., indicating a softening stance compared to previous statements [2][3] - The offshore RMB exchange rate has appreciated to 7.21, the highest in over five months, driven by expectations of improved China-U.S. relations [3] - There is a potential for concentrated settlement of foreign exchange by Chinese exporters, which could further support RMB appreciation [3] Group 2: Tourism and Consumer Behavior - During the May Day holiday, the number of travelers reached a new high, with an average of 305 million people per day, reflecting a 5.8% increase year-on-year [4] - Despite high travel volumes, there is a trend of "quantity over price," with some regions experiencing slight declines in tourism spending [5] - Significant growth was observed in inbound tourism, county tourism, and long-distance travel, with inbound orders increasing by 130% year-on-year [5] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Market Outlook - The April manufacturing PMI in China showed a decline, indicating external demand pressures are greater than internal demand [6] - The U.S. GDP contracted by 0.3% in Q1, primarily due to net export drag, while non-farm data remained stable, alleviating recession concerns [6] - Upcoming focus includes the Federal Reserve's May meeting and China's April import and export data [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of different import models on the pricing and competitiveness of Chinese goods in the U.S. market, emphasizing that the channel ecosystem's differences influence how tariffs affect final prices and product competitiveness [1][2]. Group 1: Import Models - The typical import models in the U.S. include retail purchasing, brand purchasing, and cross-border e-commerce, each with varying degrees of bargaining power that affect how tariffs impact final product prices and competitiveness of Chinese goods [2][3]. - In traditional trade models, the average price of U.S. goods is approximately 2.58 times that of Chinese goods, with over half of the costs occurring domestically in the U.S., which are not subject to tariffs [2][3]. Group 2: Retail Purchasing Model - In the retail purchasing model, major retailers like Walmart and Costco operate under a low-price strategy, resulting in limited profit margins and pressure on suppliers to either lower prices or shift supply chains to lower-cost regions [3]. - The logistics sector in the U.S. is characterized by oligopolistic competition, which reduces the likelihood of logistics companies absorbing tariffs, thereby increasing pressure on suppliers [3]. Group 3: Brand Purchasing Model - In brand purchasing, strong brands like Apple can pass on tariffs primarily to their manufacturers and distributors, while in competitive markets like Nike's, the burden of tariffs is more evenly distributed among brands, manufacturers, and distributors [3]. Group 4: Cross-Border E-Commerce Model - In the cross-border e-commerce model, B2C operators may reduce certain costs to mitigate the impact of tariffs on final prices, while capable operators may shift to D2C models to enhance marketing efficiency and brand strength [4][5]. - The cross-border e-commerce model is characterized by high gross margins and high costs, with procurement costs accounting for 28.4% of final prices, logistics costs for 17.7%, and advertising costs for 19.1% [5].