国家统计局发布的最新数据显示，7月份，社会消费品零售总额38780亿元，同比增长3.7%；环比下降 0.14%。1-7月份，全国固定资产投资(不含农户)288229亿元，同比增长1.6%；扣除房地产开发投资，全 国固定资产投资增长5.3%。东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，总体上看8月的经济增长动能有可能延 续7月偏弱的状态，着眼于稳定宏观经济运行、稳定就业市场，判断四季度初前后宏观政策有可能推出 新的重大增量措施。 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Policy and Growth - The macroeconomic policy will intensify monetary and fiscal efforts to promote stable economic growth and maintain reasonable price levels in the second half of the year [1] - The external environment is becoming increasingly complex, with weakening global economic growth and rising trade barriers [1] - Domestic demand expansion and technological innovation will be prioritized to effectively respond to external changes [1] Group 2: New Productive Forces - Strategic emerging industries accounted for over 13% of GDP in 2023, expected to exceed 17% by 2025 [2] - The semiconductor industry is projected to reach a market size of over $180 billion by 2025, with a domestic production rate of 50% [2] - The AI sector is rapidly developing, with significant advancements in domestic models and applications across various fields [2] - The photovoltaic industry continues to thrive with ongoing technological innovations and cost reductions [2] - The new energy vehicle market saw production and sales growth of 45.2% and 44% respectively from January to May [2] - The biopharmaceutical industry is expected to grow by approximately 15% year-on-year by mid-2025 [2] Group 3: Consumption Recovery - Social retail sales grew by 5% year-on-year from January to May 2025, an increase from 3.5% at the end of 2024 [4] - Policies like "trade-in" have significantly boosted consumption, while some sectors face structural sales slowdowns [4] - Consumer demand is expected to continue its upward trend in the second half of the year, with a projected annual growth of about 6% in retail sales [5] Group 4: Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 3.7% year-on-year from January to May 2025 [6] - Investment in high-tech manufacturing and infrastructure is expected to maintain a strong growth rate, contributing significantly to overall investment growth [7] - Infrastructure investment is projected to grow by 6% for the year, driven by government funding and local initiatives [8] Group 5: Real Estate Market - The real estate market is in a long-term bottoming phase, with a 10.7% year-on-year decline in real estate development investment from January to May [9] - The market is expected to continue its contraction, with a projected 5% decline in sales area for the year [10] - Government policies are expected to support the market, but challenges remain due to high debt levels among developers [10] Group 6: Export Outlook - China's exports are projected to grow by about 5% in the first half of the year, despite tariff pressures from the U.S. [11] - The export outlook for the second half is complex, with potential scenarios ranging from stable to a decline of up to 7% depending on U.S. tariff policies [12][13] Group 7: Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy has become more proactive, with significant government bond issuance and an increase in budgetary spending [14] - The fiscal deficit is set at 4.0%, with a focus on expanding investment and stabilizing trade [15] Group 8: Monetary Policy - The monetary policy remains "appropriately loose," with significant liquidity support and interest rate adjustments [16] - The central bank is expected to further lower interest rates and reserve requirements to stimulate economic growth [18] Group 9: Economic Pressures - Despite improvements in economic growth, domestic demand remains weak, with ongoing deflationary pressures [19] - The overall economic environment is expected to face challenges, including high inventory levels and structural overcapacity [20]

文 ｜ 杨帆 玛西高娃 王希明 李想 5月2日，中国商务部表示正在评估与美国启动贸易谈判的可能性，较此前立场有所软化；美日第 二轮谈判依然有较大分歧，我们认为可能会降低美国对华要价底气。中美关系缓和预期推动离岸人 民币汇率升值到7 . 2 1，为5个月多来最高值。前期中国出口企业囤积了大量未结汇美元，若这些贸 易商集中结汇，或可持续支撑人民币升值。国内五一假期出游人次再创新高，"量优于价"的特征或 仍然存在，入境游、县域游、长线游高增长为数据中三大结构性亮点。 ▍ 5月2日，中国商务部表示正在评估与美国启动贸易谈判的可能性，较此前立场有所软化；美日 第二轮谈判依然有较大分歧，可能会降低美国对华要价底气。 4月2 2日，美国总统特朗普首次表示关税可能从1 4 5%的水平下调，释放缓和信号，随后美国财政 部长等高管多次表示与中国之间存在接触。5月2日，中国商务部专门就中美经贸对话磋商情况答 记者问，表示正在评估美国启动贸易谈判的可能性，较此前外交部"中美双方并没有就关税问题 进行磋商或谈判"的强硬表态有所软化。另外，美国和日本在5月2日进行了第二轮部长级谈判， 但是分歧依然较大。据日本《每日新闻》5月2日报道，会 ...

文 ｜ 杨帆 玛西高娃 ▍ 跨境电商模式中，B2C经营者可能根据自身产品特征压降部分环节费用以减轻关税对最终价格 的影响，有能力的经营者或转向D2C模式以提升营销效率和品牌实力，而F2C模式的极致性价比 优势或遭遇冲击。 跨境电商可区分为B2C模式、D2C模式、F2C模式、B2B模式等典型的子模式。典型跨境电商呈 现"高毛利、高费用"特点，采购成本占最终售价的2 8 . 4%、物流成本占最终售价的1 7 . 7%，广告 费用占最终售价的1 9 . 1%，达人佣金占最终售价的1 4 . 7%，销售净利率为2 0 . 1%。关税上升环境 下，B2C模式经营者可能根据自身产品特点，通过降低采购成本或广告费用以减轻关税的影响， 有能力的经营者或更多转向D2C模式，着力提高营销效率和增强品牌实力。此外，关税上升可能 对以极致性价比为核心竞争力的F2C模式产生较多负面影响，部分工厂可能更注重品牌价值的运 营，或将供应链转移至低成本地区。 美国进口商品的典型模式主要有零售商采销模式、品牌商采销模式和跨境电商模式等，不同进口模 式渠道生态的差异会左右关税对最终价格和产品竞争力的影响程度。传统的贸易模式中，美国零售 商利润压缩 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the pressure on CPI due to insufficient consumer demand, predicting a low CPI in the first three quarters of 2025, with a significant rebound expected in Q4 2025 [1][6]. Group 1: CPI Core Parameters - Parameter 1: Food - Pork and beef are expected to face downward price pressure in 2025, with pork prices projected to drop from 17 CNY/kg in 2024 to around 15 CNY/kg, shifting from a positive to a negative contribution to CPI [2]. - Parameter 2: Oil - Oil prices are under downward pressure due to OPEC+ production increases and a weakening U.S. economy, with Brent crude oil prices expected to fall to the range of 70-75 USD/barrel in 2025, negatively impacting CPI [3]. - Parameter 3: Core Goods - The "old-for-new" policy is not expected to suppress core goods CPI, which is anticipated to rise moderately supported by further consumption promotion policies [4]. - Parameter 4: Core Services - The stabilization of rental prices is crucial, as rental prices have negatively impacted CPI since 2022, with a projected drag of approximately 0.03 percentage points in 2024 [5]. Group 2: CPI Forecasts - In a neutral scenario, the estimated CPI year-on-year averages for Q1 to Q4 of 2025 are -0.1%, -0.3%, -0.2%, and 0.8%, respectively, indicating a notable recovery in Q4 [6]. Group 3: Macro Economic Tracking - Recent PMI data shows a recovery compared to the previous month, but remains below the five-year average, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment, while non-manufacturing sectors have also seen a decrease [7].