（央视财经《经济信息联播》）今天（10月20日），国家统计局发布最新数据，今年前三季度，我国国 内生产总值同比增长5.2%。前三季度，国民经济顶住压力延续稳中有进发展态势，生产供给平稳增 长，就业物价总体稳定，新动能稳步成长，经济运行展现出强大韧性和活力。我们一起打开中国经济秋 季报。 国家统计局新闻发言人 付凌晖：对于我国这样超大体量的经济体而言，能够保持稳定发展殊为不易， 在各种风险挑战交织的背景下更显可贵。 此外，经济平稳运行的支撑条件也没有变，从先行指标和高频指标看，积极因素还在累积。9月份，宏 观经济运行的先行指标中国制造业采购经理指数连续2个月回升。10月上旬，流通领域一些重要工业品 价格继续回升。文旅和体育相关消费显著增长，据测算，中秋和国庆假期国内出游8.88亿人次，群众体 育赛事、演唱会、音乐节等人气十足，彰显了我国经济的韧性和活力。 转载请注明央视财经 初步核算，前三季度国内生产总值1015036亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长5.2%。比上年同期加快0.4 个百分点，经济增量达到39679亿元，同比多增1368亿元。从生产看，前三季度，全国规模以上工业增 加值同比增长6.2%。制造业增长6 ...

Group 1: Market Data Summary - DR001 closed at 1.32 with a -15.67bp change, DR007 at 1.53 with a -7.04bp change, GC001 at 1.36 with a -13.50bp change, and GC007 at 0.00 with a -187.00bp change [4] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.58 with a 0.40bp change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with a 0.00bp change [4] - 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Chinese treasury bonds closed at 1.39 (-1.00bp), 1.63 (-0.73bp), and 1.88 (-0.78bp) respectively, while 10 - year US treasury bonds closed at 4.20 with a 2.00bp change [4] - Last week, the central bank conducted 2467.4 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations and 600 billion yuan in MLF operations, with 1826.8 billion yuan in reverse repurchase and 300 billion yuan in 1 - year MLF maturing, resulting in a net injection of 940.6 billion yuan [4] - This week, 516.6 billion yuan in reverse repurchase will mature, with 240.5 billion and 276.1 billion maturing on Monday and Tuesday respectively, and 300 billion yuan in 182 - day buy - out reverse repurchase maturing on Tuesday [5] Group 2: Stock Index Market - The closing prices and changes of major stock indices: CSI 300 at 4550 (-0.95%), SSE 50 at 2941 (-0.40%), CSI 500 at 7241 (-1.37%), and CSI 1000 at 7398 (-1.45%) [6] - The closing prices and changes of index futures contracts: IF at 4543 (-0.9%), IH at 2945 (-0.3%), IC at 7203 (-1.2%), and IM at 7357 (-1.2%) [6] - Trading volume and open interest changes: IF volume decreased by 9.3% to 121085, IH volume decreased by 6.9% to 48226, IC volume increased by 4.9% to 136035, and IM volume increased by 14.2% to 242990; IF open interest decreased by 2.4% to 259924, IH open interest increased by 1.1% to 95988, IC open interest increased by 1.4% to 252224, and IM open interest increased by 3.3% to 364864 [6] - Last week, CSI 300 fell 0.44% to 4501.9, SSE 50 fell 1.98% to 2909.7, CSI 500 rose 0.32% to 7170.3, and CSI 1000 rose 0.21% to 7438.2; only the power equipment (3.9%) and electronics (3.5%) sectors in the Shenwan primary industry index rose, while banking (-0.5%), non - ferrous metals (-3.5%), non - banking finance (-0.1%), steel (-1.1%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (-2%) led the decline [6] - As of September 25, the margin trading balance in the A - share market was 2436.61 billion yuan, an increase of 46.18 billion yuan from the previous week [6] Group 3: Market Outlook and Analysis - The central bank governor stated that China's monetary policy adheres to a self - centered approach while considering internal and external balance, and will use various monetary policy tools to ensure sufficient liquidity [5] - Recently, the macro news has been calm, and the stock index has been oscillating; due to poor domestic economic data, there is a stronger expectation for policies to promote consumption, stabilize the real estate market, and expand fiscal spending [7] - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China will be held in October, focusing on formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan and analyzing the current economic situation, which is worthy of attention [7] - The stock index trend remains bullish, but the policy aims to guide the A - share market to a "slow - bull" pattern, and it is recommended to adjust and go long, while controlling positions before the holiday [7] Group 4: Index Futures Premium and Discount - IF premium/discount rates: 0.00% for the current - month contract, 2.62% for the next - month contract, 2.45% for the current - quarter contract, and 2.31% for the next - quarter contract [8] - IH premium/discount rates: -2.73% for the current - month contract, -0.50% for the next - month contract, -0.51% for the current - quarter contract, and -0.04% for the next - quarter contract [8] - IC premium/discount rates: 10.16% for the current - month contract, 9.81% for the next - month contract, 9.89% for the current - quarter contract, and 9.76% for the next - quarter contract [8] - IM premium/discount rates: 10.54% for the current - month contract, 11.55% for the next - month contract, 12.54% for the current - quarter contract, and 12.13% for the next - quarter contract [8]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) maintains a supportive monetary policy stance to foster economic recovery and stabilize financial markets in light of global monetary trends, particularly following the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Response - The global financial market had anticipated the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, resulting in a relatively stable market reaction [1]. - The US dollar index remains around 97, with international capital markets generally trending upwards, while commodity markets are experiencing fluctuations downward [1]. - China's major financial markets, including stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange, are operating steadily [1]. Group 2: Future Monetary Policy Directions - The PBOC plans to utilize various monetary policy tools based on macroeconomic conditions and changes in the economic landscape to ensure ample liquidity [2]. - The focus will be on reducing the overall financing costs in society, supporting consumption, and expanding effective investment to reinforce economic recovery [2]. - The PBOC aims to maintain the stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level [2].

Core Insights - The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates that in July, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 38,780 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.7% but a month-on-month decline of 0.14% [1] - From January to July, the total fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) amounted to 288,229 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. When excluding real estate development investment, the growth rate of fixed asset investment was 5.3% [1] - Chief Macro Analyst Wang Qing from Dongfang Jincheng suggests that the economic growth momentum in August may continue to reflect the weaker state observed in July, indicating that new significant incremental measures in macro policy may be introduced around the beginning of the fourth quarter to stabilize the macroeconomic operation and employment market [1]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Policy and Growth - The macroeconomic policy will intensify monetary and fiscal efforts to promote stable economic growth and maintain reasonable price levels in the second half of the year [1] - The external environment is becoming increasingly complex, with weakening global economic growth and rising trade barriers [1] - Domestic demand expansion and technological innovation will be prioritized to effectively respond to external changes [1] Group 2: New Productive Forces - Strategic emerging industries accounted for over 13% of GDP in 2023, expected to exceed 17% by 2025 [2] - The semiconductor industry is projected to reach a market size of over $180 billion by 2025, with a domestic production rate of 50% [2] - The AI sector is rapidly developing, with significant advancements in domestic models and applications across various fields [2] - The photovoltaic industry continues to thrive with ongoing technological innovations and cost reductions [2] - The new energy vehicle market saw production and sales growth of 45.2% and 44% respectively from January to May [2] - The biopharmaceutical industry is expected to grow by approximately 15% year-on-year by mid-2025 [2] Group 3: Consumption Recovery - Social retail sales grew by 5% year-on-year from January to May 2025, an increase from 3.5% at the end of 2024 [4] - Policies like "trade-in" have significantly boosted consumption, while some sectors face structural sales slowdowns [4] - Consumer demand is expected to continue its upward trend in the second half of the year, with a projected annual growth of about 6% in retail sales [5] Group 4: Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 3.7% year-on-year from January to May 2025 [6] - Investment in high-tech manufacturing and infrastructure is expected to maintain a strong growth rate, contributing significantly to overall investment growth [7] - Infrastructure investment is projected to grow by 6% for the year, driven by government funding and local initiatives [8] Group 5: Real Estate Market - The real estate market is in a long-term bottoming phase, with a 10.7% year-on-year decline in real estate development investment from January to May [9] - The market is expected to continue its contraction, with a projected 5% decline in sales area for the year [10] - Government policies are expected to support the market, but challenges remain due to high debt levels among developers [10] Group 6: Export Outlook - China's exports are projected to grow by about 5% in the first half of the year, despite tariff pressures from the U.S. [11] - The export outlook for the second half is complex, with potential scenarios ranging from stable to a decline of up to 7% depending on U.S. tariff policies [12][13] Group 7: Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy has become more proactive, with significant government bond issuance and an increase in budgetary spending [14] - The fiscal deficit is set at 4.0%, with a focus on expanding investment and stabilizing trade [15] Group 8: Monetary Policy - The monetary policy remains "appropriately loose," with significant liquidity support and interest rate adjustments [16] - The central bank is expected to further lower interest rates and reserve requirements to stimulate economic growth [18] Group 9: Economic Pressures - Despite improvements in economic growth, domestic demand remains weak, with ongoing deflationary pressures [19] - The overall economic environment is expected to face challenges, including high inventory levels and structural overcapacity [20]

Group 1: Trade Relations and Currency Impact - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce is evaluating the possibility of initiating trade negotiations with the U.S., indicating a softening stance compared to previous statements [2][3] - The offshore RMB exchange rate has appreciated to 7.21, the highest in over five months, driven by expectations of improved China-U.S. relations [3] - There is a potential for concentrated settlement of foreign exchange by Chinese exporters, which could further support RMB appreciation [3] Group 2: Tourism and Consumer Behavior - During the May Day holiday, the number of travelers reached a new high, with an average of 305 million people per day, reflecting a 5.8% increase year-on-year [4] - Despite high travel volumes, there is a trend of "quantity over price," with some regions experiencing slight declines in tourism spending [5] - Significant growth was observed in inbound tourism, county tourism, and long-distance travel, with inbound orders increasing by 130% year-on-year [5] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Market Outlook - The April manufacturing PMI in China showed a decline, indicating external demand pressures are greater than internal demand [6] - The U.S. GDP contracted by 0.3% in Q1, primarily due to net export drag, while non-farm data remained stable, alleviating recession concerns [6] - Upcoming focus includes the Federal Reserve's May meeting and China's April import and export data [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of different import models on the pricing and competitiveness of Chinese goods in the U.S. market, emphasizing that the channel ecosystem's differences influence how tariffs affect final prices and product competitiveness [1][2]. Group 1: Import Models - The typical import models in the U.S. include retail purchasing, brand purchasing, and cross-border e-commerce, each with varying degrees of bargaining power that affect how tariffs impact final product prices and competitiveness of Chinese goods [2][3]. - In traditional trade models, the average price of U.S. goods is approximately 2.58 times that of Chinese goods, with over half of the costs occurring domestically in the U.S., which are not subject to tariffs [2][3]. Group 2: Retail Purchasing Model - In the retail purchasing model, major retailers like Walmart and Costco operate under a low-price strategy, resulting in limited profit margins and pressure on suppliers to either lower prices or shift supply chains to lower-cost regions [3]. - The logistics sector in the U.S. is characterized by oligopolistic competition, which reduces the likelihood of logistics companies absorbing tariffs, thereby increasing pressure on suppliers [3]. Group 3: Brand Purchasing Model - In brand purchasing, strong brands like Apple can pass on tariffs primarily to their manufacturers and distributors, while in competitive markets like Nike's, the burden of tariffs is more evenly distributed among brands, manufacturers, and distributors [3]. Group 4: Cross-Border E-Commerce Model - In the cross-border e-commerce model, B2C operators may reduce certain costs to mitigate the impact of tariffs on final prices, while capable operators may shift to D2C models to enhance marketing efficiency and brand strength [4][5]. - The cross-border e-commerce model is characterized by high gross margins and high costs, with procurement costs accounting for 28.4% of final prices, logistics costs for 17.7%, and advertising costs for 19.1% [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the pressure on CPI due to insufficient consumer demand, predicting a low CPI in the first three quarters of 2025, with a significant rebound expected in Q4 2025 [1][6]. Group 1: CPI Core Parameters - Parameter 1: Food - Pork and beef are expected to face downward price pressure in 2025, with pork prices projected to drop from 17 CNY/kg in 2024 to around 15 CNY/kg, shifting from a positive to a negative contribution to CPI [2]. - Parameter 2: Oil - Oil prices are under downward pressure due to OPEC+ production increases and a weakening U.S. economy, with Brent crude oil prices expected to fall to the range of 70-75 USD/barrel in 2025, negatively impacting CPI [3]. - Parameter 3: Core Goods - The "old-for-new" policy is not expected to suppress core goods CPI, which is anticipated to rise moderately supported by further consumption promotion policies [4]. - Parameter 4: Core Services - The stabilization of rental prices is crucial, as rental prices have negatively impacted CPI since 2022, with a projected drag of approximately 0.03 percentage points in 2024 [5]. Group 2: CPI Forecasts - In a neutral scenario, the estimated CPI year-on-year averages for Q1 to Q4 of 2025 are -0.1%, -0.3%, -0.2%, and 0.8%, respectively, indicating a notable recovery in Q4 [6]. Group 3: Macro Economic Tracking - Recent PMI data shows a recovery compared to the previous month, but remains below the five-year average, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment, while non-manufacturing sectors have also seen a decrease [7].