Inflation Trends - The August CPI showed a significant rebound, with a month-on-month increase from 0.2% in July to 0.38% in August, slightly above the market expectation of 0.33%[5] - Year-on-year CPI growth rose from 2.7% to 2.9%, indicating a return to an upward trend[5] - Core CPI month-on-month growth increased from 0.32% to 0.35%, also exceeding market expectations of 0.31%[5] Employment Concerns - The number of first-time unemployment claims rose by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest level since October 2021, significantly surpassing the market expectation of 235,000[6] - The projected increase in employment from April 2024 to March 2025 was revised down by 91,100, with average monthly job growth adjusted from 136,000 to 60,000[6] - The risk of employment deterioration is now seen as greater than the risk of uncontrolled inflation, leading to an 81% probability of three rate cuts this year[1] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates twice, in September and December, totaling a 50 basis point reduction, with the year-end target for the federal funds rate set at 3.75%-4%[1] - Further rate cuts are anticipated next year, potentially bringing the year-end target down to 3.25%-3.5% as economic growth stabilizes and inflation recedes[1]

Core Insights - The article highlights the ongoing support of various consumer subsidy policies for durable goods prices, contributing to a sustained increase in core CPI year-on-year, while noting the sluggish recovery in rental and household service prices [1][2]. CPI Analysis - In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, aligning with seasonal trends, while year-on-year figures remained flat. Core CPI rose to 0.8%, the highest since March 2024 [2]. - Key drivers of core CPI include: 1. Strong price increases in consumer policy-supported sectors, with living goods and services prices rising by 0.8% month-on-month, significantly above the seasonal average of 0.26% [2]. 2. Rising gold prices and a surge in consumer gold purchases led to high growth in other goods and services CPI [2]. 3. Summer travel remains robust, although the growth rate of tourism CPI has slightly decreased compared to 2023 and 2024, indicating potential in the tourism and service consumption markets that requires further policy guidance [2]. 4. Rental and household service CPI saw a modest increase of 0.1% month-on-month, which is below historical averages, indicating limited recovery progress [2]. PPI Analysis - In July, the PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year, with the decline rate remaining stable. The PPI is showing signs of stabilization, supported by raw material prices due to intensified "anti-involution" policies, although downstream factory prices remain weak due to overcapacity and export competition [3]. - The positive impact of "anti-involution" policies on PPI is expected to be gradual and long-term. Current capacity optimization policies have expanded from traditional industries like coal, steel, and cement to emerging sectors such as automotive, photovoltaics, and batteries, affecting nearly 20% of industry revenue [3].

Group 1 - The continuous rise in prices of products such as tea and meat has pushed UK food inflation to its highest level in 17 months [1] - The British Retail Consortium reported a 4% year-on-year increase in food bills for July, marking the highest increase since February 2024 [1] - Overall commodity prices have risen for the second consecutive month, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, the highest level in over a year [1] Group 2 - Retailers are transferring costs to consumers in response to policy changes effective from April, despite a weak economic backdrop [3] - The CEO of the British Retail Consortium, Helen Dickinson, stated that the retail sector faced £7 billion (approximately $9.4 billion) in costs due to last year's budget, forcing most retailers to raise prices [3] - There are increasing speculations about further tax hikes in the autumn as the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, seeks to stabilize the UK's fragile public finances, with economists estimating a potential funding gap of up to £30 billion [3] Group 3 - Rising food costs are particularly sensitive to household inflation expectations, increasing the risk of a "second-round effect" where workers demand higher wages to offset rising living costs [3] - According to Rightmove, the pressure from rapidly rising rents on tenants has slightly eased, with the average monthly rent outside London rising by 3.9% to £1,365, the smallest annual increase since 2020 [3] - In London, the average monthly rent increased by 1.9%, reaching a historic high of £2,712 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has turned from a decline to an increase of 0.1% year-on-year in June, ending a four-month downward trend, influenced by the recovery in industrial consumer goods prices [2][3]. CPI Analysis - In June, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, with food prices decreasing by 0.3% and non-food prices rising by 0.1% [3]. - The decline in industrial consumer goods prices narrowed from 1.0% to 0.5% year-on-year, reducing its downward impact on CPI by approximately 0.18 percentage points [3]. - International commodity price fluctuations led to significant increases in gold and platinum jewelry prices, which rose by 39.2% and 15.9% respectively, contributing about 0.21 percentage points to the CPI increase [3]. - The core CPI rose by 0.7%, marking a new high in nearly 14 months [3]. PPI and Industrial Prices - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a consistent decline in June, but some industries are experiencing price stabilization and recovery due to improved supply-demand relationships [8]. - The construction of a unified national market and increased efforts to combat disorderly low-price competition are contributing to price stabilization in certain sectors [8]. - Prices in the automotive sector, including both traditional and new energy vehicles, have shown signs of recovery, with respective year-on-year declines narrowing [8]. Consumer Demand and Living Costs - The demand for housing rentals has increased during the graduation season, leading to a 0.1% rise in rental prices [6]. - Policies aimed at boosting consumption have led to a rise in prices for daily necessities and clothing, with general daily goods and clothing prices increasing by 0.8% and 0.1% respectively [9]. - High-tech industries are also seeing price increases, with integrated circuit packaging and testing prices rising by 3.1% year-on-year [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), highlighting that the core CPI increased by only 0.1% month-on-month in May, with a year-on-year rate of 2.8%, indicating a controlled inflation environment despite tariff impacts [1][5]. Group 1: CPI and Inflation Trends - The total CPI rose by 0.1% month-on-month and rebounded to 2.4% year-on-year, both figures falling short of market expectations [1]. - Core goods saw a month-on-month growth drop from 0.1% to zero, with significant declines in new and used car prices, indicating that tariffs have not yet been fully passed on to consumers [2]. - Certain categories, such as household appliances (+4.3%) and toys (+2.2%), experienced notable price increases, but these were insufficient to elevate overall inflation [2]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Business Strategy - Businesses have not significantly raised prices despite supply chain disruptions, as they are managing inventory levels and awaiting potential tariff reductions [2]. - Retailers are selling off pre-tariff inventory at lower prices, absorbing some inflationary pressures by compressing profit margins [2]. Group 3: Service Inflation and Energy Prices - The supercore service inflation, excluding rent, saw a month-on-month increase of only 0.1%, with declines in airfares and hotel prices suggesting reduced consumer spending on leisure activities [3]. - Gasoline prices fell by 2.6% in May, contributing to a decrease in overall inflationary pressures, although recent oil price rebounds may introduce future uncertainties [3]. Group 4: Future Inflation Expectations - The expectation is for a potential price increase in the coming months as businesses begin to pass on costs, particularly among large retailers like Walmart [4]. - Unlike the broad inflation seen in 2021-2022, the anticipated price increases are characterized as structural and one-time events rather than a result of an overheated economy [4]. Group 5: Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve views the moderate inflation data positively but is unlikely to make significant policy changes based on a single month's data, preferring to analyze additional data sets before deciding on interest rate adjustments [5]. - The upcoming June FOMC meeting may see a slight upward revision in inflation forecasts, with a more optimistic growth outlook compared to March, potentially leading to a hawkish stance from Fed Chair Powell [5].

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 付春生(18482259975) 报告摘要 核心结论： 今年依然是"价比量重要"的一年，本篇报告重点关注 CPI 走势。我们提示， 由于基数效应 （去 年三季度高温多雨天气因素导致农产品涨幅明显超季节性，暖冬天气导致今年前 2 个月农产品涨幅低于季 节性） 以及食品 （近几年整体供给充足，典型是肉类） 和能源价格 （油价的外生性冲击） 的影响 ， 今 年 CPI 同比可能与市场目前预期存在预期差，但并不意味物价压力在边际增大，核心 CPI 依然是温和回升 的。需重点跟踪影响今年后期 CPI 的环比因子： 1 ）二季度的猪价； 2 ）三季度的农产品价格； 3 ）油价 的下行幅度； 4 ）核心 CPI 修复力度的强弱，其中 3 月份需求脉冲下的房租表现值得关注 。 影响今年 CPI 的因素之一：年初环比对新涨价因素的拖累较大 当年每个月的环比，影响的是当年当月及以后月份的新涨价因素，年初的环比对全年新涨价因素影响最 大。比如 2017 年、 2018 年、 2022 年， CPI 环比月均值都为 0.15% ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - The CPI year-on-year growth rate decreased to -0.7% in February, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to the impact of the Spring Festival timing [1][4] - Excluding the Spring Festival effect, the CPI year-on-year increased by 0.1% in February, indicating a moderate recovery in prices [1][4] - Food prices contributed over 80% to the total decline in CPI, with fresh vegetable prices dropping by 12.6% year-on-year [5][6] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI year-on-year decline narrowed to 2.2% in February, with the average for January-February also showing a 2.2% decrease compared to the previous year [2][7] - The main reasons for the PPI decline include the off-peak industrial production season and weak demand for construction materials [2][7] - The prices of production materials fell by 2.5%, while living materials prices decreased by 1.2%, with specific industries like coal processing seeing significant price drops [7][8] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The PMI data indicated an increase in raw material and finished product price indices, but the PPI only slightly narrowed, suggesting a discrepancy between perceived and actual market conditions [3] - The current policy uncertainty may lead to a cautious approach from enterprises, affecting production enthusiasm [3] - Positive signals from the upcoming Two Sessions may help restore market demand and improve production and demand dynamics [3]

3月9日，据国家统计局公布，2025年2月份，全国居民消费价格同比下降0.7%。其中，城市下降0.7%，农村下降 0.7%；食品价格下降3.3%，非食品价格下降0.1%；消费品价格下降0.9%，服务价格下降0.4%。1—2月平均，全 国居民消费价格比上年同期下降0.1%。 2月份，全国居民消费价格环比下降0.2%。其中，城市下降0.2%，农村下降0.1%；食品价格下降0.5%，非食品价格 下降0.1%；消费品价格持平，服务价格下降0.5%。 2025年2月份，全国工业生产者出厂价格同比下降2.2%，环比下降0.1%，降幅比上月均收窄0.1个百分点；工业生产 者购进价格同比下降2.3%，环比下降0.2%。1—2月平均，工业生产者出厂价格比上年同期下降2.2%，工业生产者 购进价格下降2.3%。 一、各类商品及服务价格同比变动情况 2月份，食品烟酒类价格同比下降1.9%，影响CPI（居民消费价格指数）下降约0.54个百分点。食品中，鲜菜价格下 降12.6%，影响CPI下降约0.31个百分点；水产品价格下降3.6%，影响CPI下降约0.07个百分点；蛋类价格下降 2.7%，影响CPI下降约0.02个百分点；畜肉类价 ...