宏 观 研 究 海外周度观察 2025 年 08 月 09 日 美国贸易协议中的"虚虚实实" 8 月 12 日，中美关税暂停措施即将到期。从美国近期与日本、欧盟等经济体达成的"投资换关 税"贸易协议来看，后续关税风险能否缓和，还存在哪些潜在贸易冲突？ （一）贸易谈判进度？谈判进程已近半，美国实质建立了三档分层关税 从贸易协议覆盖的商品规模来看，美国贸易谈判进程已近半。截至 8 月 1 日，美国已与越南、 日本、欧盟、韩国等九个经济体达成贸易协议或暂停协议。其中，德国占美国进口的 5%，日本 4%、韩国 4%，仍在推进谈判的经济体包括墨西哥（15%）、加拿大（11%）、印度（3%）等。 二季度美国有效关税税率为 7.9%，仍远低于理论税率。8 月 1 日后，美国理论关税税率已由年 初的 2.4%上升 15.9 个点至 18.3%。2025 年二季度关税收入 640 亿美元，是去年同期的 3.6 倍，二季度商品进口规模 8194 亿美元，有效关税税率仅 7.9%，比理论税率低 10 个点。 通过贸易谈判，美国实质上建立了三档分层关税。一是最低档 10%，主要为盟友国或贸易逆差 较小的经济体，如英国、澳大利亚、新加 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ambitious plan of the EU to purchase $750 billion worth of energy products from the US faces significant practical challenges, with analysts deeming the target unrealistic given the current market dynamics and supply capabilities [1][2]. Group 1: Trade Agreement Details - The EU has committed to purchasing approximately $250 billion worth of US energy products annually, including LNG, oil, and nuclear fuel, which represents a more than threefold increase compared to the current energy trade volume of about €65 billion (approximately $76 billion) [2][3]. - To meet the $250 billion target, the EU would need to import around 67% of its energy needs from the US, which is not feasible given the current import levels and market conditions [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Challenges - The US's total energy exports to all global buyers in 2024 are projected to be $318 billion, making it impractical for the EU to triple its imports from the US [3]. - Even with political will, market forces will dictate energy flows, and the EU cannot control the import decisions of its companies, which are primarily private entities [4]. Group 3: Energy Transition and Future Outlook - The EU's plan to increase fuel purchases contradicts its expected decline in demand as it transitions to cleaner energy sources, with oil demand having peaked several years ago [5]. - The most likely outcome of the trade agreement is increased participation of European companies in US LNG projects, rather than a significant change in market dynamics within the next five years [5].

Group 1 - The trade agreement between the US and EU, finalized on July 27, 2025, involves significant tariff adjustments and commitments, impacting global trade dynamics [3][9][10] - The US reduced its planned 30% tariff on EU goods to 15%, affecting key sectors such as automotive, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors, with potential cost increases for European manufacturers [9][12] - The EU committed to purchasing $750 billion worth of energy products from the US over three years, aiming to reduce reliance on Russian energy, which could reshape energy supply chains [9][15] Group 2 - The agreement is expected to create a favorable environment for US industries, particularly in energy, defense, pharmaceuticals, and high-tech manufacturing, enhancing market access and reducing trade deficits [10][12] - The EU's concessions, including a commitment to invest $600 billion in the US across various sectors, are seen as a means to stabilize transatlantic relations despite internal dissent regarding the agreement's fairness [9][13] - The indirect benefits to Ukraine arise from reduced Russian energy revenues due to EU's shift towards US energy, potentially impacting Russia's military capabilities and providing strategic support to Ukraine [15][18] Group 3 - The agreement has led to positive market reactions, with European stock indices rising, indicating investor confidence in the stability brought by the trade deal [18] - The long-term implications of the agreement may include a shift in global LNG market dynamics, with the US positioned to lead in energy exports while the EU diversifies its energy sources [18][20] - The negotiations highlight the importance of negotiating power in trade agreements, with the EU making significant concessions under pressure from the US [20]

Core Points - The EU and the US have reached a new trade agreement aimed at avoiding a larger trade war, with the EU committing to stop importing Russian oil and gas in exchange for reduced US tariffs [1][3] - The EU plans to purchase $750 billion worth of energy products from the US over the next three years, diversifying its energy sources and enhancing energy security [1][4] - The agreement includes a 15% tariff on US imports from the EU, but certain categories will have zero tariffs, which has raised concerns among some European officials about the balance of the deal [4][5] Group 1 - The EU will completely abandon imports of Russian oil and gas, opting instead to purchase American energy, which is expected to contribute to European energy security [1] - The EU's energy purchases from the US will include liquefied natural gas, oil, and nuclear fuel, with a clear goal to eliminate reliance on Russian fossil fuels by 2027 [1][3] - The agreement is seen as beneficial primarily to the US, with critics arguing it could lead to deindustrialization in Europe and increased energy costs [3][4] Group 2 - The deal is expected to result in an additional $600 billion investment from the EU into the US, which some European officials view as detrimental to local employment and industry [4][5] - The agreement has faced criticism for being unbalanced, with concerns that it mirrors previous US trade tactics that pressured other nations [4][5] - European leaders have expressed dissatisfaction with the agreement, viewing it as a capitulation to US interests at the expense of European economic strength [5]

Core Viewpoint - The European Union is developing an unprecedented "emergency strategic reserve" plan to stockpile essential materials, including rare earth minerals and critical components, in response to geopolitical uncertainties and potential threats [1][3][5]. Group 1: Strategic Reserve Plan - The new emergency reserve plan includes not only traditional supplies like energy, food, and medicine but also rare earth minerals, permanent magnets, and specialized cable maintenance modules [3][5]. - The plan reflects the EU's concern that disruptions to network, energy, and IoT infrastructure could severely impact its core operations [3][9]. Group 2: Geopolitical Context - The urgency of this initiative is driven by recent threats, such as the suspected sabotage of the Baltic Sea gas pipeline and cyberattacks on communication networks across Europe [5][11]. - The EU is preparing for potential military attacks on member states, as indicated by warnings from officials about the likelihood of significant military confrontations in the coming years [5][11]. Group 3: Dependency on Imports - Europe relies heavily on imports for critical materials, with over 80% of rare earth minerals sourced from China, making it vulnerable to supply chain disruptions [7][15]. - The demand for permanent magnets is surging due to the green economy transition, particularly in wind and solar energy, necessitating stockpiling to avoid supply shortages [7][9]. Group 4: Infrastructure and Cybersecurity - The EU aims to enhance its resilience by stockpiling repair modules for communication and energy infrastructure to ensure rapid recovery from outages [9][11]. - There is a recognized lack of understanding regarding the types and quantities of materials needed to address new risks, indicating a reactive rather than proactive approach to security [11][13]. Group 5: Market Implications - The EU's strategy may create opportunities for companies that can navigate the complexities of the rare earth market, especially as the bloc seeks to reduce dependency on Chinese supplies [15][17]. - The potential for increased demand and stockpiling could lead to fluctuations in international raw material prices, raising questions about market stability [15][17].

Core Viewpoint - The European Union has postponed a proposal to limit dependence on Russian nuclear fuel [1] Group 1 - The delay in the proposal indicates ongoing reliance on Russian nuclear fuel within the EU [1] - This decision may impact the EU's energy strategy and its efforts to diversify energy sources [1]

Group 1 - Iran is considering a proposal to establish a uranium enrichment regional consortium under the Iran-U.S. nuclear agreement, but it must be located within Iranian territory [1] - The proposal, suggested by Oman, aims to create a consortium involving the U.S. and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to provide nuclear fuel to countries needing civilian nuclear energy projects [1] - The consortium would include the U.S., Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and possibly Turkey, and would operate under IAEA supervision [1] Group 2 - The U.S. has maintained a hardline stance on Iran, insisting that any new agreement must prohibit all forms of uranium enrichment by Iran [2] - Iran has gradually ceased compliance with parts of the nuclear agreement since May 2019, but claims that its actions are reversible [2] - A sixth round of indirect talks between the U.S. and Iran is expected to take place soon, although the time and location have not been disclosed [3]

Conflict Situation - Ukrainian Air Force destroyed all 10 drones launched by Russia during the night [1] - Ukrainian Armed Forces reported approximately 1,070 Russian soldiers lost in the past day, along with 2 tanks, 14 armored personnel carriers, and 62 artillery systems [1] Negotiation Situation - French President Macron indicated intentions to impose new sanctions on Russia in the coming days if the ceasefire in Ukraine is not respected, potentially affecting financial services and the oil and gas sectors [2] - Ukrainian President Zelensky stated he would only meet with Putin for peace talks, rejecting other Russian representatives, and plans to invite Trump to participate in the discussions [2] - The Kremlin did not comment on whether Putin would attend the talks, while Russian Deputy Foreign Minister mentioned that Russia and the U.S. would hold bilateral negotiations, expressing a desire for direct contact with Ukraine [2] Other Developments - The U.S. and Ukraine signed an additional execution document for a mineral resources cooperation agreement [2] - Russian President Putin confirmed that Russia continues to supply nuclear fuel to the U.S. [2] - German Chancellor Merz announced that new sanctions against Russia would cover the energy and financial markets [2]

Core Points - Russia continues to supply nuclear fuel to the United States despite geopolitical tensions [1] Group 1 - The ongoing supply of nuclear fuel from Russia to the U.S. indicates a complex relationship between the two nations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) is accelerating its efforts to decouple from Russian energy sources, aiming to completely end energy imports from Russia by 2027, three years earlier than previously planned [1][2]. Group 1: Energy Import Trends - From 2021 to 2023, EU's natural gas imports from Russia decreased by over 70%, dropping from 150 billion cubic meters to 43 billion cubic meters [1]. - In 2024, there is a projected rebound in Russian gas imports, with a 12% increase in liquefied natural gas (LNG) and a 26% increase in pipeline gas, totaling 52 billion cubic meters [1]. - Despite efforts to reduce dependency, Russian gas is expected to still account for about 13% of the EU's total natural gas imports in the current year [1]. Group 2: Policy Measures - The EU's roadmap includes requiring member states to submit plans to phase out Russian gas by the end of 2025, banning new long-term contracts, and stopping spot trading [2]. - The EU plans to enhance maritime regulation to combat the "shadow fleet" created by Russia to evade sanctions and will cut off Russian uranium supply chains [2]. - The roadmap outlines nine specific actions to gradually eliminate Russian energy imports, with legislative proposals for oil, gas, and nuclear energy expected next month [1][2]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Projections - Prior to the Ukraine conflict, the EU and Russia were each other's largest energy trading partners, with Russia supplying 28% of EU's crude oil, 44% of natural gas, and 52% of coal imports in 2021 [2]. - Following the conflict, the EU has implemented 16 rounds of sanctions against Russia, including bans on oil and coal imports, while still allowing pipeline gas imports [3]. - By the end of 2024, the share of Russian gas in EU imports is projected to drop from 45% in 2021 to 19%, and Russian oil imports are expected to fall from nearly 30% in early 2022 to 3% [3]. Group 4: Changing Supply Dynamics - The role of Russia in the EU's energy landscape is being replaced by the United States, with US LNG imports accounting for nearly 45% of the EU's total LNG imports in 2024 [4]. - Norway has become the largest supplier of pipeline gas to the EU, with over 33% market share [4]. Group 5: Internal Disagreements - There are differing opinions among EU member states regarding the complete cessation of energy imports from Russia, with Slovakia's Prime Minister expressing concerns about the economic impact of such a move [5]. - Slovakia estimates that ending all energy cooperation could lead to an annual increase in gas costs of €40 billion to €50 billion and an additional €60 billion to €70 billion in electricity costs [5].