Group 1 - The military industry is experiencing a significant increase in attention and stock performance, particularly following the announcement of the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Anti-Japanese War, with the defense industry index rising by 23.94% from June 24 to August 25 [1] - The defense industry index has recorded three consecutive monthly gains, with August likely to be positive, marking the longest continuous increase since mid-2021 [1] - Key companies such as Guangqi Technology, AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, and Feilihua have reached historical stock price highs, indicating strong market performance [1] Group 2 - The military industry is shifting towards a fundamental-driven market, with military expenditure growth being a key driver; the 2025 defense budget is set at 1,784.665 billion yuan, reflecting a 7.2% increase [2] - China's defense budget as a percentage of GDP remains low compared to developed countries, suggesting significant growth potential for the military sector [2] - The military trade sector is emerging as a secondary growth avenue for military enterprises, with nine Chinese companies making it to the global top 100 military enterprises list, generating a total of 102.89 billion USD in weapon sales [2] Group 3 - The current year marks the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, with the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) expected to drive a peak in equipment upgrades [3] - The first and last years of the Five-Year Plan are typically critical for performance, indicating that these periods may warrant closer attention from investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent activity in the military industry stocks, highlighting the impact of the upcoming military parade and the associated "parade market" trends observed in previous years [5]. Group 1: Military Equipment and Technology - The military parade will showcase domestically produced main battle equipment, including new-generation tanks, carrier-based aircraft, and fighter jets, emphasizing the PLA's operational capabilities [4]. - The parade will feature advanced equipment such as hypersonic weapons, air defense systems, and strategic missiles, demonstrating the military's strong deterrent capabilities [4]. - The focus will be on new types of unmanned intelligent systems and electronic warfare capabilities, reflecting the military's adaptation to technological advancements and evolving warfare [4]. Group 2: Market Trends and Analysis - Historical analysis shows that military stocks typically experience a rally 1-2 months prior to major parades, with military indices rising in the lead-up to these events [5]. - The strength of the "parade market" is influenced by overall market conditions and risk appetite, with significant past gains noted, such as an 84% excess return in the military sector during the 2015 parade [5]. - Post-parade, military stocks may face short-term adjustments, but long-term performance will be driven by the fundamentals of the military industry [5].

Group 1 - The defense and military industry sector is experiencing adjustments, with the defense military ETF (512810) showing fluctuations, including a drop of over 1% before narrowing its losses [1] - The ETF has seen significant inflows, with over 1.68 billion yuan invested in the past 10 days, indicating strong bullish sentiment despite recent declines [1] - Among the 80 constituent stocks of the ETF, most have declined, with notable drops including Changcheng Military Industry down nearly 7% and Guorui Technology down over 3% [1] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the upcoming mid-year report season may bring uncertainty regarding the performance of previously high-profile stocks, leading to potential short-term differentiation [3] - Huafu Securities maintains a bullish outlook on the sector, while Zhonghang Securities believes the defense military industry is in a state with ample upward potential and limited downside risk [3] - Zhejiang Merchants Securities highlights three main investment themes for the defense military sector by 2025: military trade, new domains and qualities, and restructuring [3] Group 3 - The defense military ETF (512810) has undergone a share split, reducing the trading threshold from approximately 120 yuan to around 60 yuan, making it more accessible for investors [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The "Strengthening Ocean Economy" strategy is accelerating, with significant developments in offshore wind power, ultra-deepwater platforms, and breakthroughs in high-end shipbuilding [2] - The central government's focus on high-quality development of the marine economy presents long-term growth opportunities for deep-sea technology and related industries [3] Summary by Sections Wind Power - The wind power sector is expected to see a profit restructuring and order expansion, with high demand projected for 2025. The domestic wind power installation reached 19.96 GW from January to April 2025, with a total bidding capacity of 53.4 GW from central state-owned enterprises [3] - The deep-sea wind power projects are entering a substantial advancement phase, with notable projects like the Zhejiang deep-sea demonstration project initiating equipment bidding, creating new opportunities for suppliers [3] - Recommended stocks include XinQiangLian, with related stocks being Tongyu Heavy Industry [3] Oil and Gas Equipment - The marine oil and gas sector is becoming a crucial growth area for China's energy supply, with marine crude oil accounting for nearly 80% of the national crude oil increment [3] - China has made significant advancements in deepwater oil and gas exploration, breaking the monopoly of a few international oil companies, exemplified by the domestically designed and built sixth-generation ultra-deepwater drilling platform "Fenjin" [3] - Recommended stocks include Jereh, Neway, with related stocks being CIMC, CNOOC, PetroChina, and China Oilfield Services [3] Shipbuilding Industry - The policy support is accelerating the construction of deep-sea equipment, with high demand arising from deep-sea oil and gas development, offshore wind power, and marine fisheries [3] - Key breakthroughs have been achieved in high-end ship types such as LNG carriers and ultra-deepwater drilling platforms, with the industry experiencing high levels of new orders and deliveries [3] - Recommended stocks include China Shipbuilding, China Shipbuilding Defense, and Zhenhua Heavy Industry [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant advancements in underwater combat capabilities, particularly focusing on the domestic unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV) market, which has surpassed 10 billion yuan [1] - The article emphasizes the importance of constructing large-scale underwater monitoring networks, such as seabed observation networks, and advanced towed sonar arrays, which are essential components in the new generation of underwater listening devices [1] - It notes that military UUVs and nuclear submarines are adopting more efficient and quieter advanced propulsion systems, identifying key domestic suppliers of these power systems [1]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment outlook for the defense and military industry, highlighting a dual logic driving significant market opportunities in 2025 [4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the improvement in military orders and thematic catalysts, such as military AI and robotics, will significantly expand the investment space and elasticity within the military sector [4][40]. - It identifies four main investment themes: order elasticity in missiles and underwater systems, thematic space in military AI/robotics, military-civilian integration in commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy, and value investment in aircraft and engines [4][50]. Summary by Sections 1. Dual Logic Driving the 2025 Military Market - The report outlines that the military construction cycle in China is currently in a new phase, with increasing demand for various military products and a shift from sporadic orders to more consistent and widespread orders across the industry [4][10]. - It notes that the demand for military supplies is expected to grow due to increased training frequency and global conflicts, which will drive ammunition consumption [16][23]. 2. Order Elasticity Main Line: Missiles/Underwater - The missile sector is projected to enter a growth phase in 2025, with significant potential for order elasticity, particularly in guided missiles [4][50]. - The underwater sector is also highlighted, with a focus on the development of underwater combat systems and the integration of various platforms [78][82]. 3. Thematic Catalysts: Military AI/Robotics - The report discusses the acceleration of military AI and robotics, which are expected to become core components of new combat capabilities, enhancing the overall investment landscape [40][44]. - It emphasizes that global military powers are increasingly prioritizing the development of intelligent weaponry and new combat strategies [44][45]. 4. Military-Civilian Integration: Commercial Aerospace/Low-altitude Economy - The report indicates that policies supporting commercial aerospace and low-altitude economies are gaining traction, presenting new investment opportunities [4][50]. - It highlights specific companies that are well-positioned to benefit from these trends, such as Zhenray Technology and Shanghai Hanhua [4]. 5. Value Investment Main Line: Aircraft/Engines - The aircraft and engine sectors are expected to maintain stable growth, with resilience against market fluctuations [4][50]. - The report suggests focusing on companies like AVIC Shenyang Aircraft and Aero Engine Corporation of China for potential investments [4].