所 PX PTA MEG 基本面数据 期货 PX 主力 PTA 主力 MEG 主力 PF 主力 SC 主力 昨日收盘价 6562 4584 4158 6292 471 涨跌 -8 -10 -49 16 -8.7 涨跌幅 -0.12% -0.22% -1.16% 0.25% -1.81% 月差 PX1-5 PTA1-5 MEG1-5 PF12-1 SC11-12 昨日收盘价 -24 -48 -77 -42 -2 前日收盘价 -40 -40 -75 -48 -1.7 涨跌 16 -8 -2 6 -0.3 现货 PX CFR 中国（美 金/吨） PTA 华东（元/吨） MEG 现货 石脑油 MOPJ Dated 布伦特 (美 金/桶) 昨日价格 808.83 4500 4214 584.25 67.66 前日价格 806.33 4545 4275 583.75 68.33 涨跌 2.5 -45 -61 0.5 -0.68 现货加工费 PX-石脑油价差 PTA 加工费 短纤加工费 瓶片加工费 MOPJ 石脑油-迪 拜原油价差 昨日价格 222.58 205.91 255.45 115.28 -4.34 前日价格 21 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The crude oil market has become pessimistic after OPEC+ plans to increase production, and traders generally expect lower oil prices. PX valuation has weakened, but the supply-demand pattern is tight due to upcoming new PTA plant launches and high polyester factory operation rates. It is recommended to partially close positions and focus on long PX short Brent. For PX, 11-01 calendar spread is in contango, and 1-5 is in backwardation. Also, for 01/05, long PX short PTA is suggested [10]. - For PTA, the cost side is weakening, and the valuation has declined. The support for PTA processing margin is weak. Despite the high polyester operation rate, PTA is in a destocking pattern, but there is significant future supply pressure. It is advisable to continue monitoring the 11-01 contango position and the PTA01/05 processing margin compression position [10]. - The market is focusing on the commissioning progress of Yulong Petrochemical. The 01 contract faces significant pressure. It is recommended to focus on the 1-5 backwardation. Near - month spot has low inventory and strong basis. The unilateral price is in a weak and volatile market [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Prices - The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures were 6778, 4688, 4302, 6370, and 489.2 respectively. The price changes were 6770, -10, -17, 6, and 3, with percentage changes of 0.12%, -0.21%, -0.39%, 0.09%, and 0.62% [2]. - The 11-1 spread of PX was 60, PTA 11-1 was -14, MEG 1-5 was -48, PF 11-12 was 14, and SC 11-12 was 1.7 [2]. Spot Prices - The spot price of PX CFR China was 838.33 dollars/ton, PTA in East China was 4620 yuan/ton, MEG spot was 4422 yuan/ton, naphtha MOPJ was 604 dollars/ton, and Dated Brent was 66.3 dollars/barrel [2]. - The PX - naphtha spread was 233.75 dollars/ton, PTA processing margin was 131.77 yuan/ton, short - fiber processing margin was 208.61 yuan/ton, bottle - chip processing margin was 69.09 yuan/ton, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude spread was -6.01 dollars/ton [2]. Market Dynamics - PX: The naphtha price declined slightly. PX prices were stable, with some spot transactions. The supply from the Middle East is limited due to strong gasoline demand. China's Fujia Dahua plans to shut down its 700,000 - ton/year No. 2 PX production line for maintenance [4][6]. - PTA: Some PTA plants in China restarted, and the PTA load reached 76.8%. A 110 - million - ton PTA plant in South China plans to conduct maintenance in mid - to - late October [7]. - MEG: The overall operating load in China was 74.91%, with the syngas - to - MEG operating load at 76.69%. An Xinjiang 150,000 - ton/year syngas - to - MEG plant shut down, and an Iranian 400,000 - ton/year MEG plant is restarting [7][8]. - Polyester: The operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn was about 75%, and the overall polyester load in China reached about 91.6%. The sales of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, and the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were mixed [8]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA, and MEG were all 0, indicating a neutral view [9].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Trend is strong, recommend long on dips and focus on the 11-1 calendar spread [6] - PTA: Unilateral trend is strong, focus on the 9-1/10-1 calendar spread [7] - MEG: Trend is strong, exit the 9-1 reverse calendar spread [7] 2) Core Views - PX follows the rise of PTA due to unexpected PTA plant shutdowns and the recovery of polyester demand in the peak season, forming a positive feedback loop and showing a short - term strong trend [6] - PTA's 8 - 9 month balance sheet shows significant inventory drawdown due to an unexpected plant shutdown, and with the increase in polyester plant operation rate, it will enter a tight - balance pattern, so 9-1/10-1 calendar spreads are favorable [7] - MEG has a tight spot supply with high basis, and low recent arrivals benefit the near - month contracts, but there are clear upside pressures from future new capacity, so no short - term chasing of long positions [7] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - **PX**: On the 21st, the price of PX increased significantly, with two 10 - month Asian spot transactions at 854 and 855, and two 11 - month Asian spot transactions at 849 and 851. The estimated price of PX on the 21st was 854 dollars/ton, up 17 dollars from the 20th [3] - **PTA**: A 250 - million - ton PTA plant in South China shut down for maintenance on the 21st, and another 250 - million - ton plant is expected to shut down around August 23rd for over a month. As of Thursday, the PTA load was 71.6%, and the operating rate was around 77.4% [3] - **MEG**: As of August 21st, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 73.16% (up 6.77% from the previous period), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) was 81.25% (up 0.78% from the previous period) [5] - **Polyester**: There were no changes in the whole polyester plants this week, but the local plant loads increased, and the overall polyester load in mainland China was around 90% as of Thursday. The operating load of major domestic polyester industrial yarn manufacturers remained stable, and the overall theoretical operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn recovered to around 71% [5] Price and Spread Data | Futures | PX | PTA | MEG | PF | SC | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's Closing Price | 6958 | 4860 | 4473 | 6614 | 490.9 | | Change | 6844 | 82 | - 4 | 110 | 8.1 | | Change Rate | 1.67% | 1.72% | - 0.09% | 1.69% | 1.68% | | Month Spread (Yesterday's Closing Price) | 162 | - 14 | - 54 | - 42 | - 6.2 | | Month Spread (Change) | 74 | 42 | - 4 | 20 | 0.7 | | Spot Price (Yesterday) | 852.33 dollars/ton | 4830 yuan/ton | 4518 yuan/ton | 584.5 dollars/ton | 68.12 dollars/barrel | | Spot Price (Change) | 14.33 | 144 | 16 | 9 | 0.57 | | Spot Processing Fee (Yesterday) | 255.5 | 197.31 | 175.93 | 27.32 | - 6.01 | | Spot Processing Fee (Change) | 2.5 | - 10.67 | 43.46 | 4.44 | 0 | [2] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 1 (indicating a "strong" view) [6] - PTA trend intensity: 1 (indicating a "strong" view) [6] - MEG trend intensity: 1 (indicating a "strong" view) [6] Sales Data - On the 21st, the overall sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were fair, with an average sales rate of around 70% by 3:30 pm [5] - On the 21st, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber improved, with an average sales rate of 89% by 3:00 pm [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX: Due to intensified geopolitical conflicts, both domestic and imported PX supplies are tight, leading to a continuous upward trend. It is recommended to go long on PX and short on SC. The PXN spread has expanded to $261/ton, and short - term calendar spread arbitrage (buy near - term and sell far - term) is advisable [7][8]. - PTA: Supported by cost factors, both the single - side position and the calendar and basis spreads are strong. Despite increased maintenance by polyester bottle - chip and short - fiber factories, PTA supply remains tight, causing the basis to strengthen significantly [8]. - MEG: With the shutdown of Iranian ethylene glycol plants, MEG is expected to be in a short - term upward - trending and volatile state. It is recommended to reduce the position of going long on PTA and short on MEG. Attention should be paid to the operating status and shipping changes of Iranian ethylene glycol plants under the Israel - Iran conflict [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Variation**: On June 19, 2025, the closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC were 7094, 4988, 4539, 6794, and 3998 respectively, with daily changes of 1.5%, 1.5%, 1.5%, 1.6%, and 2.0% [1]. - **Calendar Spread**: The PX (9 - 1), PTA (9 - 1), MEG (9 - 1), PF(7 - 8), and PX - EB07 calendar spreads on June 19 were 272, 206, 23, 74, and - 469 respectively, with daily changes of 52, 38, 7, 28, and 50 [1]. - **Inter - commodity Spread**: The PTA09 - 0.65PX09, PTA09 - MEG09, PTA07 - PF07, PF07 processing margin, and PTA09 - LU09 spreads on June 19 were 377, 449, - 1636, 887, and 1040 respectively, with daily changes of 5, 6, - 26, 20, and 12 [1]. - **Basis and Other Spreads**: The PX, PTA, MEG, PF basis, and PX - naphtha spreads on June 19 were 251, 270, 85, - 4, and 255 respectively, with daily changes of - 106, - 60, - 1, - 48, and no change [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: On June 19, the PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, PX, and SC warehouse receipts were 37468, 6052, 5464, 0, and 4029000 respectively, with daily changes of - 43123, no change, no change, - 5, and no change [1]. 3.2 Market Overview - **PX Market**: On June 19, the PX price continued to rise, with an estimated price of $904/ton, up $16 from the previous day. The PX - naphtha spread expanded to $261.38/ton. The PTA operating rate in China dropped from 82.6% to 79.1% due to plant maintenance, while the polyester operating rate was estimated at 92%, a 1.2% increase from the previous week [3][4]. - **PTA Market**: A 2.2 - million - ton PTA plant in the Northeast has shut down, and a 4.5 - million - ton plant in the South is gradually shutting down for about two months of maintenance. The PTA operating rate has dropped, and the Honggang Petrochemical Phase 3 2.5 - million - ton plant has started production and is operating at over 90% capacity [4][5]. - **MEG Market**: Two ethylene glycol plants in Saudi Arabia with a combined capacity of 1.4 million tons/year are scheduled to restart soon. As of June 19, the overall operating rate of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 70.33% (up 4.08% from the previous period), and a new 600,000 - ton/year synthetic - gas - based ethylene glycol plant in Sichuan has been put into production [5][6]. - **Polyester Market**: The operating rate of major domestic polyester industrial yarn manufacturers has increased slightly, with an overall theoretical operating rate of about 73.2%. As of Thursday, the polyester operating rate in mainland China was around 92%. On June 19, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were average, with an average production - sales ratio of 54%, and the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were light, with an average production - sales ratio of about 30% [6][7]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PX is 2, while that of PTA and MEG is 1 [8].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a significant decline in various petrochemical prices, including crude oil, naphtha, and PTA, indicating a bearish trend in the market [1] Price Movements - On May 15, New York crude oil futures fell by $1.53 to $61.62 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures dropped by $1.56 to $64.53 per barrel [1] - Naphtha prices decreased by $18 to $572 per ton CFR Japan [1] - Asian MX prices fell by $22 to $709 per ton FOB Korea [1] - Asian PX prices declined by $17 to $832 per ton FOB Korea and $853 per ton CFR China [1] - Ethylene prices in Northeast Asia remained stable at $780 per ton, while Southeast Asia was at $870 per ton CFR [1] PTA Market Analysis - PTA futures experienced fluctuations with a weak spot market atmosphere, and the spot basis remained weak [1] - The main port price for May was reported between 09+215~220, with bids at 09+200, and the negotiation range around 4990~5040 [1] - In the afternoon, PTA futures showed a range of fluctuations, with the main port trading around 09+190~200 [1] - Yisheng Petrochemical reduced PTA prices by $3 to $641 per ton [1] MEG and Polyester Market - MEG's domestic market showed narrow adjustments in the morning but weakened in the afternoon, with a declining basis [1] - The polyester market in Jiangsu reported overall weak sales, with average sales estimated at 20-30% by 3:30 PM [1] - Direct-spun polyester sales were also weak, averaging 30% by 3:00 PM [1] - Mainstream transactions for semi-dull and bright polyester chips were around 6000-6050 [1] - A major polyester manufacturer in Jiangsu began reducing production, affecting 800 tons per day of polyester chip output [1]