Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core View - The fundamentals show a situation of weak supply and demand, but there are still strong expectations on the demand side. Although the market has declined today, the downside space is limited. Considering the approaching Fed rate cut and demand expectations, it may maintain a range-bound operation in the short term [10] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The table shows the daily quotes of Shanghai lead futures on September 10, 2025, including details of different delivery months such as previous settlement price, today's opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, settlement reference price, price changes, trading volume, trading amount, and open interest/change. The total trading volume is 66,980 lots, the total trading amount is 564,208.60, and the total open interest is 89,999 lots with an increase of 3,876 lots [5] 2. Spot Market - Today's spot price is 16,700 yuan/ton, and the previous trading day's spot price was 16,750 yuan/ton. Today's basis is -95 yuan/ton, and the previous trading day's basis was -180 yuan/ton [7] 3. Influencing Factors - **Macroeconomic**: In August, China's CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year and PPI decreased by 2.9% year-on-year. The US non - farm payrolls were revised down by 911,000 [9] - **Supply Side**: For primary lead, smelters in Henan and Inner Mongolia started maintenance, offsetting the increase from the resumption of production of a smelter in Liaoning. For secondary lead, the raw material supply remained tight, smelters were still in a loss state, and the scale of production cuts expanded [9] - **Demand Side**: Recently, the consumption performance of lead - acid batteries was not prominent, and the seasonal consumption in the traditional peak season did not materialize. However, the implementation of new national standards in September and the effectiveness of anti - dumping sanctions tariffs in the Middle East in September may have a certain impact on the export of starting lead - acid batteries [9] 4. Market Outlook - The fundamentals show weak supply and demand, but there are strong expectations on the demand side. The market may maintain a range - bound operation in the short term [10]

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - During the week from September 1st to September 5th, 2025, the price of Shanghai lead futures generally maintained a high - level range operation [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Price - The price of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated repeatedly around the upper part of the range during the week. As of the weekend, the weekly closing price of the main contract Shanghai lead 2510 (pb2510) reached 16,900 points, with a maximum price of 16,950 and a minimum price of 16,780. The position was 49,426 lots, an increase of about 244 lots compared with the previous week [3]. 1.2 Variety Market - In the weekly market of Shanghai lead futures, the contract price of Shanghai lead (pb2509) was the lowest, the price change ranges of Shanghai lead (pb2601) and Shanghai lead (pb2603) were the smallest, the contract price of Shanghai lead (pb2608) was the highest, and the price change range of Shanghai lead (pb2606) was the largest [5]. 1.3 Related Market - From the observation of the Shanghai lead option market, among the contracts with the exercise price between 14,800 and 17,000 points, the call option at 17,000 points had the largest trading volume and open interest [6]. 2. Spot Market 2.1 Basis Data - The spot price on Friday was 16,675 yuan/ton, and the spot price last Friday was 16,650 yuan/ton. The basis on Friday was - 225 yuan/ton, and the basis last Friday was - 230 yuan/ton. The weekly basis narrowed [9]. 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Latest News - Macroeconomically, in China, the retail industry index reached an 8 - month high in September. Overseas, the US non - farm payrolls data in August fell far short of expectations, increasing the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut this year. Trump exempted key commodities such as gold from tariffs. Fundamentally, on the supply side, for primary lead, smelters in Henan, Inner Mongolia and other regions started maintenance, offsetting the increase from the resumption of production of smelters in Liaoning; for recycled lead, the raw material supply remained tight, smelters were still in a loss state, and the scale of smelter production cuts expanded. On the demand side, the recent consumption of lead - acid batteries was not prominent, and the seasonal consumption in the traditional peak season did not materialize. However, the new national standard will be implemented in September, and the anti - dumping sanctions tariffs in the Middle East will take effect in September, which may have a certain impact on the export of starting lead - acid batteries [10]. 4. Market Outlook - Macroeconomically, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased again. Fundamentally, the supply is still in short supply, and on the demand side, the peak season has not materialized yet, but there is still a strong expectation. In the short term, due to the strong macro and fundamental expectations, the price will run strongly [11].

南华期货铅风险管理报告 2025年6月17日 南华有⾊⾦属研究团队 肖宇⾮ 投资咨询证号： Z0018441 林嘉玮 从业资格证号：F03145451 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1290号 铅价格波动率（日度） | 最新价格 | 预测区间 | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 16860 | 16300-17100 | 8.95% | 17.0% | source： 同花顺,南华研究 铅风险管理建议（日度） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心价格下跌 | 多 | 做空沪铅主力期货合约 | 沪铅主力期货合约 | 卖出 | 75% | 17000 | | | | | 暂无 | 沪铅期权 | 暂无 | 暂无 | 暂无 | | 原料管理 | 原料库存较低，担心价格上涨 | 空 | 做多沪铅主力期货合约 | 沪铅主力期货合 ...